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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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8 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

So what comes after we slow the curve? We keep slowing the curve, for months and months? Years? We go back to normal and this fucks us again?

The main benefit from slowing the curve is management of capacity in the healthcare system. It's not that we can't care for patients of the virus, but we can't do it when there are thousands of new cases a day (at a 20 percent hospitalization rate and 5 percent ICU rate). We definitely cannot handle that in addition to normal burden on the health system.

The cat is out of the bag, the virus is going to spread here. It can overwhelm hospitals and cause thousands of unnecessary deaths, or we can all do our part to slow the spread, ease therefore easing pressure on the healthcare system and preventing unnecessary loss of life and suffering. And, of course, if the rate of infection slows, fewer people get infected before effective antivirals or vaccine can be developed.

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41 minutes ago, drt said:

I’m in Vegas for a trade show that normally attracts 150k people from all over the globe. They just announced it is closing a day early so I’m getting an earlier flight home. I assume at this point I’ve been exposed as I’ve been here since Monday.

My mom has been staying at the house to help out with the kids.  I just had to tell her to be on her way back to her house before I get back from the airport. This shit sucks. 

My dad bailed on ConExpo and my brother offered me the spot (don’t even work with them anymore).  Hard pass.

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My throat's been a bit burning today, but can't tell if it's being aggravate by all the tree pollen.  Seems like I can feel my heart beating heavier than normal as well.

It's been fun, really.  I wish you all well.  And no, you cannot have my watch when I am dead.  For I have none.

blade runner GIF

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So https://ncov2019.live which is sourced well, has us at 1,885 cases, around 550 new cases in a day.   At this rate, we will probably hit close to 1,000 new cases Sunday.   Maybe Monday.   Depends on testing.   

Obviously there are many more (add a zero), but this is going to get a lot of attention.   

Edited by atomheartbevo
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A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Edited by Hook1997
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14 minutes ago, freyguy said:

My throat's been a bit burning today, but can't tell if it's being aggravate by all the tree pollen.  Seems like I can feel my heart beating heavier than normal as well.

It's been fun, really.  I wish you all well.  And no, you cannot have my watch when I am dead.  For I have none.

blade runner GIF

Same here.  My truck looks like a yellow cab.

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, as noted above, Milan is surprisingly population-dense.  It would be in the top 20 in the US. 11 of which are greater NYC.

Also, Tehran is 31k/sq mi.

Definitely a factor.  Not surprising, but worth considering.

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i took the day off from this thread to get work done.

i'm sure there is important news and discussion upthread that i am not tuned up on.

i just want to say at midnight on 12 march 2020, that i feel good that Day Zero finally happened yesterday, 3/11.

as someone who has been in this thread from very early on, i am surprised that we actually got here now, before we had italy on the tube.

it's going to be a bitch and a metric fuckton of people are going to die who shouldn't have to this year.

but at least we finally go to Day Zero.

and that is a blessing.

Good Luck to All.

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A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Did you nut in her or pull out
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5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, Tehran is 31k/sq mi.

Definitely a factor.  Not surprising, but worth considering.

Manhattan is 70k/sq mile based on residential density alone. But since its the largest business district in the world, its about 3 to 4 times that density on the average weekday.

Today, it was a ghost town compared to what it usually looks like. 

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20 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Maybe she just needs more cowbell.

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From that wall of words:

Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  

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10 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

LOL, no offense but everyone is working on a vaccine.  Not just Canada.  I'd be shocked if they were even remotely close...everyone reputable working on it has said they're not close.  I heard several other experts say similar death rates - but to be very fucking clear...these are thoughts of some of the top people in the field.  Those death rates aren't my opinion...none of that stuff is mine.  The panel is listed at the top.  I know you probably saw that but I just want to reiterate.  Also, you should look at any of this critically, I'm not knocking you for that.  Carry on...

 

Edit:   https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-12/why-does-it-take-so-long-to-make-a-coronavirus-vaccine

Nothing can stop a global outbreak in its tracks better than a vaccine. Unfortunately, creating a vaccine capable of preventing the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 will probably take at least a year to 18 months, health officials say.

“That is the time frame,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee this week. Anyone who says they can do it faster “will be cutting corners that would be detrimental.”

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

From that wall of words:

Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  

 

Screenshot 2020-03-13 at 00.19.05.png

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

The problem is not developing the vaccine, per se.  It's testing it for safety/effectiveness.  Even on an accelerated schedule, it will take months to insure that it isn't more harmful than helpful.

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https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

..."There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems)...

..."You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'...."

stream_img.jpg

Spoiler

ITV News has obtained a recording of two Milanese doctors about the situations at their hospitals over coronavirus. Credit: AP

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation.

Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the danger of infection so great.

But it's really important people understand just how bad things are, not least because it is where we may be headed.

So I will continue to write here about conversations, emails or recordings with those who are still under quarantine in Italy.

Some will be Britons who have stayed on, some Italians, some doctors. I start with a voice recording of two Milanese doctors speaking on WhatsApp about the situation at their hospitals.

  • Audio of the two Milanese doctors speaking about the coronavirus situation at their hospitals
 
 
 
 
 
Play Video

The first identifies herself as Martina, but I believe she is Martina Crivellari, an intensive care cardiac anaesthesiologist at the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan.

She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators.

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

A man wearing a protective mask looks up as he walks along the Vittorio Emanuele Gallery shopping arcade.

A man wearing a protective mask looks up as he walks along the Vittorio Emanuele Gallery shopping arcade. Credit: AP

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".

A Carabinieri (Italian paramilitary police) officer on patrol at former military hospital.

A Carabinieri (Italian paramilitary police) officer on patrol at former military hospital. Credit: AP

The other voice on the recording is a male doctor who we have so far not been able to identify, except that he works at Niguarda Hospital in Milan, one of the biggest in the city.

"We have closed down entire wards, and reduced the number of beds in traditional wards.

"All operations have been cancelled, GP surgeries closed so the that the GPs can come in and be ward doctors.

"The number of ICU beds has been tripled. There was even pressure to take over our Cardiac ICU."

"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."

Medical personnel in a coronavirus quarantined area in northern Italy.

Medical personnel in a coronavirus quarantined area in northern Italy. Credit: AP

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

He continued: "Non-specialised medical graduates are being brought in.

"At Milan’s Policlinico hospital they are dealing with 50 new pneumonia cases every day".

Milan's Policlinico hospital are dealing with 50 penumonia cases a day, according to a doctor.

Milan's Policlinico hospital are dealing with 50 penumonia cases a day, according to a doctor. Credit: AP

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

That is across the whole country, but Lombardy is the richest region in Italy and likely to be way ahead of some regions in the south.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.

How would the NHS cope if - or perhaps we should say when - our infection rate is as high as Italy's?

Let’s hope the Italian experience is giving us time to prepare.

 

I wonder how our tent city hospitals will hold up when one of our spring severe thunderstorms barrels through.

Edited by clapclapclap
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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Also, you should look at any of this critically, I'm not knocking you for that.  Carry on...

I mean that's what I'm doing. I'm just trying to create discourse. Projecting deaths in the tens of thousands to the multiple millions is always going to have some error. I'm being a skeptic and wondering what the lower limit of that is. 

Maybe it hits the upper limit - I don't know - I'm just wary of trusting any source unilaterally when the media is drowned this badly. 

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2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

..."There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems)...

..."You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'...."

stream_img.jpg

Looking at why it's hitting Italy so hard and not places like South Korea should be an interesting case study. 

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3 hours ago, staboner said:

you need to be extra paranoid and vigilant. you will interact with plenty of folks during your day that show no signs and have it. if i was in your shoes i would be self quarantined with your food and booze man. good luck. 

I’m on an immunosuppressive drug, remicade, to treat an autoimmune condition.  I would like to subscribe to the booze and food quarantine protocol.

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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Looking at why it's hitting Italy so hard and not places like South Korea should be an interesting case study. 

i think we've covered that.

sk went hard on the hong kong / singapore model and if not for the crazy cultist bitch they would have even better numbers.

italy: single payer, but graft economy with 10 years of retreat plus it's italy, it's an older population, they sex it up good, and it's italy.

which means we're doomed.  maybe.

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So what comes after we slow the curve? We keep slowing the curve, for months and months? Years? We go back to normal and this fucks us again?

Quoting again not to pick on you but you point something else out. I won't quote@ChiTownDoc because the post was so long, but the UCSF panel sees this cycling through the nation over the next year.

Let's say a little less than half the nation gets it: 150mm.

The countries that have practiced effective social distancing and successfully flattened the curve (China, after Wuhan, and South Korea) have had a fatality rate of less than one percent. Let's call it one percent for argument's sake.

Countries that have not (Italy, Iran, China in Wuhan before they knew what was going on) have a fatality rate of three to five percent. For argument's sake lets call this two percent to account for undocumented cases. Note we're not doing that with the other rate.

150mm Americans get it. Let's say it's a shit show at first in Washington, CA, NY, TX, etc. But the country gets the point and reacts better in areas with more time in other areas. Call the fatality rate 1.25 percent overall.

150mm x 1% = 1,500,000 dead.

150mm x 1.25% = 1,875,000 dead.

At a pretty conservative estimate, flattening the curve stands to save 375,000 lives. It's the equivalent of avoiding a nuclear weapon detonating over a major city.

So to answer your question, what happens after flattening the curve? 375,000 people get to keep living.
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37 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.

Last week, Pence promised a million.  Then his staff walked that back.  

This past Sunday, the Surgeon General of the United States claimed there were 75,000 on hand Sunday, that 2 million would be available on Monday, and 4 million by the end of the week (in partnership with private industry).

What in the Wide World of Sports is going on?  Are they producing millions of kits or tests or whatever, but we can only process a few thousand a day, if that?

Edited by atomheartbevo
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4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

For all the degenerates, this place has some smart MF.  Actually degenerates are usually the smartest people.  At least I tell myself that.  I feel better already.  

I can't tell if this is ironic or not but idgaf I'm repping it either way. 

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27 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

Flu is like 0.02. 10x is .2, SK is at .7. 

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Flu is like 0.02. 10x is .2, SK is at .7. 

I'm not comparing it to the flu. No shit this is worse than the annual flu. I'm saying that certain countries have had huge successes in preventing hospitalizations and deaths with certain countermeasuers. Maybe the entire globe can try and implement practices akin to what SK did and we can avoid some of the larger death/hosp. estimates?

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For all of the discussion about CFR, I don’t care whether overall it’s 1% or 2%.  

What I care about is olds in their late 60s, early 70s, and 80s.   Because that’s the folks in my family most at risk, and the death rate is pretty high for those groups, particularly with underlying health issues.  

It’s easy for folks to blow off 1-3%, but start explaining that for some diabetic 65 year-old, it starts climbing into double digits, and you can get their attention.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Last week, Pence promised a million.  Then his staff walked that back.  

This past Sunday, the Surgeon General of the United States claimed there were 75,000 on hand Sunday, that 2 million would be available on Monday, and 4 million by the end of the week (in partnership with private industry).

What in the Wide World of Sports is going on?  Are they producing millions of kits or tests or whatever, but we can only process a few thousand a day, if that?

Supposedly we decided the foreign test we had from Asia weren't good enough so instead of using then we would use ones we made, so they threw out those tests...  So we wait for test that were not ready,  fucking brilliant!  Not a political post but that’s just fucking dumb

Edited by Hook1997
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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s easy for folks to blow off 1-3%

No one who passed 6th grade math is blowing off 1% when there's talk of 40+% of the country getting it at some point. 1% for something as contagious as this is a huge fucking number.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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