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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine.

This is inaccurate (source: NIH, study). Clinical data has shown that (at least the mRNA) vaccines offer more broad protection from COVID and its variants than simple natural immunity. 

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16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is inaccurate (source: NIH, study). Clinical data has shown that (at least the mRNA) vaccines offer more broad protection from COVID and its variants than simple natural immunity. 

I gave him the side eye and said why not do it (I would have) but it’s still conferring some benefit as opposed to optimal benefit. Those guys have some immunity even if not the greatest amount. It should be enough to get from 67 over 70 in the adult population. 

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My boss and his wife both tested positive yesterday. They were vaccinated. Her condition is currently very serious and she is on her way to the hospital. I don't know if it is the Delta variant or not, but would guess so. She is high-risk with some other immuno-diseases, so I'm sure that is playing a part in the severity. My boss says he feels tired like he has a cold but is otherwise ok.

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58 minutes ago, HoustonHorn said:

She is high-risk with some other immuno-diseases

She may have had a poor immune response to the vaccine in the first place. As in, low or no acquired immunity. Hope she pulls through.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
 

catching up a little but as of July 6th still 8 and 13 points behind (with everyone way behind the Asians). And guess what/ the blacks and Hispanics aren’t behind the whites because they are disproportionately evangelical, Trumpers or crunchies. That’s the talking points but it’s not reality. 
If we care to actually fix this and get this right (I’m not sure that we should, I’m not sure that it matters) we probably ought to tailor this thing to be persuasive to the groups that are holding out, which means, you know, accurately identifying who those groups are and then messaging in such a way that could be helpful. 
 

Also- I don’t think it’s likely that any more vaccinations will be particularly helpful from a group perspective. My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine. I’m sure there’s a decent chunk of people there. Combine that with 67% of the total adult population being vaccinated and we should be well over the 70% that was touted as being necessary for hers immunity.  
If the Delta variant doesn’t stop because of vaccines then getting people vaccinated isn’t going to stop it and that horse is probably already out of the barn. If the delta strain isn’t sending vaccinated people to the hospital or morgue then it becomes a minor inconvenience on the same level as the flu or cold or some other irritation that we deal with that doesn’t involve us freaking the hell out. 
If the delta variant is sending people to the hospital and morgue (which doesn’t appear like the case right now- wishcasting from some in the media and authority aside) then I guess we are right back to March of 2020 with half or more of society opting out. Which would, quite obviously, suck donkey balls. 

Then you do not want to read Covid threads on any of the gun forums. They’re riddled with bukkus of mouth-breathing morons.... as far as the pandemic goes.

Edited by Armybrat
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1 hour ago, HoustonHorn said:

My boss and his wife both tested positive yesterday. They were vaccinated. Her condition is currently very serious and she is on her way to the hospital. I don't know if it is the Delta variant or not, but would guess so. She is high-risk with some other immuno-diseases, so I'm sure that is playing a part in the severity. My boss says he feels tired like he has a cold but is otherwise ok.

The vaccines never claimed to prevent catching covid but they seemed to prevent hospitalizations and definitely death. Seems like this isn't working out as well as thought. Perhaps it's due to the variants. Or perhaps the vaccines don't take for some people as well. 

Makes me think that I should start wearing masks again. I'm not quite as worried about myself but I spend some time around older relatives and I wouldn't want to pass covid onto them given these latest trends.  Everyone is vaccinated.

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
 

catching up a little but as of July 6th still 8 and 13 points behind (with everyone way behind the Asians). And guess what/ the blacks and Hispanics aren’t behind the whites because they are disproportionately evangelical, Trumpers or crunchies. That’s the talking points but it’s not reality. 
If we care to actually fix this and get this right (I’m not sure that we should, I’m not sure that it matters) we probably ought to tailor this thing to be persuasive to the groups that are holding out, which means, you know, accurately identifying who those groups are and then messaging in such a way that could be helpful. 
 

Also- I don’t think it’s likely that any more vaccinations will be particularly helpful from a group perspective. My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine. I’m sure there’s a decent chunk of people there. Combine that with 67% of the total adult population being vaccinated and we should be well over the 70% that was touted as being necessary for hers immunity.  
If the Delta variant doesn’t stop because of vaccines then getting people vaccinated isn’t going to stop it and that horse is probably already out of the barn. If the delta strain isn’t sending vaccinated people to the hospital or morgue then it becomes a minor inconvenience on the same level as the flu or cold or some other irritation that we deal with that doesn’t involve us freaking the hell out. 
If the delta variant is sending people to the hospital and morgue (which doesn’t appear like the case right now- wishcasting from some in the media and authority aside) then I guess we are right back to March of 2020 with half or more of society opting out. Which would, quite obviously, suck donkey balls. 

Frank Luntz has been brought in to develop talking points that will resonate with the largest group of holdouts - evangelical conservatives.  I don't know who they need to speak to the granola eaters, Deepak Chopra?  The relatively small gap between Hispanics/blacks and whites can be attributed as much to access as anything else.  Regardless of race, or whether or not someone is into yoga and natural healing, the common thread amongst the unvaccinated is largely a lack of education, which is the common thread for many large scale health related issues.  This brings me back to my original plan - gang tackling and forced vaccinations.

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The vaccines never claimed to prevent catching covid but they seemed to prevent hospitalizations and definitely death. Seems like this isn't working out as well as thought

Based on what?

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3 hours ago, Samson's Wig said:

This is no longer the case, although it was early on.  The last two or three months have almost completely closed any gap in vaccination rate based on race or ethnicity (I'm going to assume you were speaking about Latinos/Hispanics and not Mexican nationals).  The holdouts now appear to be die hard Trumpers, evangelicals, and the new age yoga crowd.  These three groups include members of all races/ethnicities.  

Donald Trump GIF by Election 2016

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1 hour ago, Samson's Wig said:

Frank Luntz has been brought in to develop talking points that will resonate with the largest group of holdouts - evangelical conservatives.  I don't know who they need to speak to the granola eaters, Deepak Chopra?  The relatively small gap between Hispanics/blacks and whites can be attributed as much to access as anything else.  Regardless of race, or whether or not someone is into yoga and natural healing, the common thread amongst the unvaccinated is largely a lack of education, which is the common thread for many large scale health related issues.  This brings me back to my original plan - gang tackling and forced vaccinations.

Jesus Christ I didn't realize they made people this fucking stupid. How far up the government's ass do you have your head? Surely by now you have perforated their colons.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Jesus Christ I didn't realize they made people this fucking stupid.

Mixture of stupidity and mental illness. I have a Qanon in-law and her bf who think vaccines are all about mind control (or conditioning you for future "vaccines"), along with things like chemtrails.  For reference, they take their trash somewhere out in the country and burn it, because they don't want somebody getting their DNA from it.

The family is somewhat concerned that she's liable to catch the Delta variant and end up in the hospital, and of course she has no healthcare, and has  underlying conditions.  They are concerned, because once things opened up, she made it a point to go everywhere without a mask and to brag to everybody she knew about going everywhere without a mask. 

I really don't know what it will take for these people to get their shit together.  Like @Samson's Wig said, education is the problem (look at the obesity problem in the US).

Edited by atomheartbevo
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I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

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6 minutes ago, HouTex said:

I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

If they think that already having had it is reason enough to skip vaccination, they’re stupid or mentally ill.  It’s not chicken pox. 

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I kind of wonder if we had to go through another shutdown phase (we won't), with the message being "okay, enough of you didn't get vaccinated, so we have to do this again", if that would drive up vaccinations.
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6 minutes ago, Okie State said:
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:
I kind of wonder if we had to go through another shutdown phase (we won't), with the message being "okay, enough of you didn't get vaccinated, so we have to do this again", if that would drive up vaccinations.

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Yea I don’t think so either. Warranted or not, another shutdown would likely result in some pretty nasty objections/protests.

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45 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Yea I don’t think so either. Warranted or not, another shutdown would likely result in some pretty nasty objections/protests.

Right or wrong, short of bodies in trees, there ain’t gonna be no more shutdowns.

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Just found out today that my kids piano teacher tested positive for Covid. She has had both Pfizer vaccines and tested positive for the Delta variant. Luckily my daughter and her teacher both wore their masks during the lesson on Monday. Hopefully since the instructor did not start having symptoms until Wednesday, my daughter was not exposed. Now if we can make it through the RSV that they were exposed to at the sitters unscathed we should be in good shape.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, HouTex said:

 Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

Ask them why they aren't vaccinated.

"Already having covid" is a reason I've seen, but I'm willing to bet these people you know have some really dumbass reasons.  The anti-vcxx crowd has plenty of "successful" people who have dumbass reasons.  And I know a few who have no problem getting a pneumonia shot, a flu shot, or getting shots when they travel, but they balk at this.

Edit: Here's the thing:  The big clusters popping up are centered around areas with lower vaccination rates.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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7 hours ago, HouTex said:

I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

Doing stupid shit isn't exclusive to dumb people. 

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Ask them why they aren't vaccinated.
"Already having covid" is a reason I've seen, but I'm willing to bet these people you know have some really dumbass reasons.  The anti-vcxx crowd has plenty of "successful" people who have dumbass reasons.  And I know a few who have no problem getting a pneumonia shot, a flu shot, or getting shots when they travel, but they balk at this.
Edit: Here's the thing:  The big clusters popping up are centered around areas with lower vaccination rates.
In my experience the excuses are 1) already had Covid 2) someone their sister's cousin's friend knows had a bad reaction to the vaccine 3) they haven't had time (bullshit) 4) they're conspiracy theorists and think this is some kind of global coordinated plan to depopulate the Earth...or something.

There are also plenty who still, after everything that has happened, believe this whole thing has been overblown and the virus is nothing more than a cold so why would they get a vaccine for it.
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There are two sides in this. Youre either pro-pandemic or anti-pandemic.

 

Not getting vaccinated means you are for extending the pandemic (and loss of life), potentially for forever. It also means you dont care who dies, who you infect, and you dont give a fuck about humanity.

 

It sounds stupid but its really that simple. Trying to justify or rationalize the opposing viewpoint is fucking dumb and you should feel bad if you arent vaccinated. Education aint gonna help shit with these people. 
 

Only thing that will make antivaxxers change their mind is catching delta and almost dying (or having someone close to them die). Plain and simple. Vax shaming probably wont help, but if you arent vaxxed, you shouldnt be able to eat out, fly, go to a sporting event, etc. with or without a mask. Also, their should be a vax incentive for those who got/get vaxxed. 
 

$2000 a person and 70% of the population will be vaxxed by August 1st

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We're like two months removed from Ohio's lottery, right?

How's their uptake?

I'm all for incentivizing people.  I mean, the real incentive with a vaccination is not dying if you catch the virus, but some people feel like true winners if you give them a $100 walmart gift card.

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1 hour ago, Okie State said:

In my experience the excuses are 1) already had Covid 2) someone their sister's cousin's friend knows had a bad reaction to the vaccine 3) they haven't had time (bullshit) 4) they're conspiracy theorists and think this is some kind of global coordinated plan to depopulate the Earth...or something.

There are also plenty who still, after everything that has happened, believe this whole thing has been overblown and the virus is nothing more than a cold so why would they get a vaccine for it.

I had Covid, so I didn't rush out to get the vaccine...once it was plentiful enough that I wasn't going to take a shot from somebody that needed it more I got stabbed.  But I'm less concerned about people that had it not getting vaxed (even though they should).  There is good data that mRNA antibodies are "better" than natural antibodies, but if it doesn't show up in reinfection rate vs vaccinated infection, I'm not sure it matters that much.

The remaining problem isn't really those folks, it's the ones that haven't had it and won't get the vaccine.

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I had Covid, so I didn't rush out to get the vaccine...once it was plentiful enough that I wasn't going to take a shot from somebody that needed it more I got stabbed.  But I'm less concerned about people that had it not getting vaxed (even though they should).  There is good data that mRNA antibodies are "better" than natural antibodies, but if it doesn't show up in reinfection rate vs vaccinated infection, I'm not sure it matters that much.
The remaining problem isn't really those folks, it's the ones that haven't had it and won't get the vaccine.
I agree. Just listing the reasons given from the people I know who aren't vaxxed.
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17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm surprised it isn't dying down. What are vaccination rates for the US? I assumed the immunization rate (vaccinations and natural immunity) were extremely high.

Keep in mind that some med folks say one dose is very minimal protection from Delta.  2/3 of adults have received 1 dose, but less than 60% have received 2, which is less than half of the total population. 

From Johns-Hopkins:

A total of 183 million individuals in the US have received at least 1 dose, equivalent to 55.2% of the entire US population. Among adults, 67.3% have received at least 1 dose as well as 9.4 million adolescents aged 12-17. A total of 158 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 47.7% of the total population. Among adults, 58.5% are fully vaccinated, and 7.2 million adolescents aged 12-17 years are fully vaccinated.
 

It's in their July 9 COVID Situation Report, which I got in an email but for some reason isn't on their site yet.  The July 2 report has similar, but slightly lower, numbers:

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/COVID-19-SituationReports.html

 

The real questions are the protection from Delta afforded by previous infection with another variant, and the overlap in infection and vaccination.  That will tell you the real number of people who have fairly robust protection.  Trevor Bedford has a nice thread about that on his Twitter feed:

Bottom line - his extremely rough calc is 11% of the US pop infected with Delta (relatively huge but includes asymptomatic and minor symptomatic), but clustered in places where vaccination rates are low.

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Some good "proof" that vaccines are helping reduce severity (IMO) can be seen in the mortality data over the past couple of weeks.

From June 24 to July 9th there have only been 6 deaths in Travis County.

Since June 3rd TC has had 17 deaths overall from CV19

Month of May was 28

April 30

March 69

So we are seeing a good decline in deaths as vaccination rates are increasing. Ideally with people being vaccinated even with the rise of Delta variant severity will be still stay low and while some folks may get hospitalized they won't die.

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3 hours ago, Bevo said:

I'm surprised it isn't dying down. What are vaccination rates for the US? I assumed the immunization rate (vaccinations and natural immunity) were extremely high.

Have you been paying attention to what's going on in the UK and Israel?  

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Yea the end game for now is a disease people still get but doesn’t kill them.

For those who say it can’t be eradicated. I say maybe not short term but long term it could be like others have been. That said if we get to the point that this is almost always “hey Bob where ya been the last few days?” “Oh was sick with Covid” and that’s the extent of it then much like the cold/flu etc there will not be the will ($$$) to fully put it down.

Also vaccines are one thing. A big game changer would also be a tried and true readily accessible treatment.

I really don’t give a shit if people get sick for a few days with Covid if they are not getting hospitalized/suffering long term effects/dying from it.

Not there yet.

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16 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Also vaccines are one thing. A big game changer would also be a tried and true readily accessible treatment.

I'm going to start telling my qanon relatives that because not enough people are getting vaccinated, the government is going to put the vaccine in the water supplies, and is contracting with Coca Cola for their bottled waters (Topo Chico and Dasani).

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I don't know what is more shocking here:

The other COVID patient, a 46-year-old man, died at Rambam Hospital in Haifa. He was fully vaccinated against the virus. His wife, who is 70-year-old, is also hospitalized in a moderate condition after catching the virus.

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