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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

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Just now, GopherRock said:

A bunch of Democrats also voted for Thom Tillis in NC. Fuck.

You have to think the side woman did the job a bit...that came out at just the wrong time...

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Georgia SoS says there are about 200k ballots still not counted, from urban areas.  Should overcome the 87k margin Trump is sitting on.  

I was looking at GA earlier and I’m starting to think it may get over the line. That’d be gargantuan. Hope is dangerous though.
Just now, StruggleBus said:

Haven't been following this morning, but is it essentially at a 0% chance for Trump at this point? 

Total guess, but 75% chance Biden is the next president.  Of Trumps 25%, most of that relies on him winning WI, NV, AZ, or MI in a court battle.

2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Haven't been following this morning, but is it essentially at a 0% chance for Trump at this point? 

Maybe 5%. He needs something real fuckin weird to happen in Nevada.

ETA: Chances that he wins via the vote count, not via shenanigans

Edited by BradInATX

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

wtf are you talking about - I said what we saw from the vote was that. I think that the minority voice is EXTREMELY important and that's why I'm so disappointed in the result. We can't count on white people to do the right thing, as per tradition. 

“If you don’t want help then I’m done offering it”.

Seems like a pretty simplistic way to view the voting habits of minorities.

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Haven't been following this morning, but is it essentially at a 0% chance for Trump at this point? 

Please delete that. Like right now. Before you fuck this up for everyone. :) 

13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, that seems to have been a major blunder by Biden.  It's pandering first off (meaning highly unlikely he could really do anything to the energy industry during his term, anyway) and apparently had a pretty toxic effect on a lot of people.

I think there is a way to phrase that so that it is supportable.  Hell, I think the oil and gas companies see the writing on the wall.  As with anytime there is a major shift in an industry, while some will be left behind, there is massive economic opportunity for individuals.  But again, it is all about messaging, and I do not think that was done well.  That being said, I am in the oil industry, and I would have voted for anyone vs. Trump.

3 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Trumpers definitely fired up about the election being rigged. Guess I'm not surprised.

This has been the play the whole time.  They had good data that this would be a toss-up election, and sowing doubt and trying to win it by propaganda and in the courts will continue to be the play.  This is why I have expected and continue to expect violence.  The cult will not accept the results.

Just now, BradInATX said:

Maybe 5%. He needs something real fuckin weird to happen in Nevada.

You are way too optimistic.  Biden started yesterday with a 90% chance, you’re saying that’s gone up since then?!?!

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know what this means

 

Lawsuits to throw out mail in votes. 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know what this means

 

Sounds like they have coalesced around which counties they will contest and why. 

Can we take the minority voting discussion to its own thread, please? This is the thread where I shit bricks. Thank you.

5 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

A bunch of Democrats voted for Susan Collins, god fucking dammit.

 

4 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

A bunch of Democrats also voted for Thom Tillis in NC. Fuck.

Lmao I can't even right now 

It looks to me that the Maine and Nebraska split is kind of a wash. Maine is a blue state but Republicans took one. Nebraska is a red state but Democrats took one. If they were like other states, the overall electoral vote would be the same. 

Anyone else totally worn out?  3 hours of sleep last night, following this fucking election, yesterdays drinking, work (in name only, I'm not actually doing any).  I'm thinking the only fix is to start drinking now?

Put some numbers to the NC race.... If you believe there are 475k outstanding mail in ballots that are 2:1 D then Biden +316K, Trump +158K. Final total Biden 2,972,066, Trump 2,890,438.

If you apply the same logic to the Senate race but assume only 400k of those outstanding ballots cast a vote for the Senate (conservative number, I think), D +266K, R +133K. Total D (Cunningham) 2,810,372, R (Tillis) 2,773,701.

Is my math wrong? If not, NC is very much in play. And so is getting the Senate to 50/50.

 

8 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

So Wiscy doesn't certify until Dec. 1. I take it the recount takes place after that. This shit is going to drag on and on. 

That's not unusual. You think all these states have certified today?

Court stuff is a different thing.

6 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Haven't been following this morning, but is it essentially at a 0% chance for Trump at this point? 

Uhhh, have you experienced a second of 2020?

10 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

A bunch of Democrats voted for Susan Collins, god fucking dammit.

 

9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

A bunch of Democrats also voted for Thom Tillis in NC. Fuck.

And a bunch of my young liberal friends are mad that Biden isn't more progressive and think that's why it's close. They really don't understand how conservative most people are by nature, including many registered democrats. Bernie or Warren would have lost this election, by a sizeable margin. Biden is going to hold on because enough conservative democrats understood that Trumps "most librul ever" was a lie. And I say that as someone who voted for Warren in the primary. This country just isn't ready for progress. Its going to be painfully slow.

Edited by 'stache

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know what this means

 

It means they are trying to steal the election...

3 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Anyone else totally worn out?  3 hours of sleep last night, following this fucking election, yesterdays drinking, work (in name only, I'm not actually doing any).  I'm thinking the only fix is to start drinking now?

tenor.gif?itemid=5645491

 

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is accurate.  Nothing matters.  It never has.  The religious-fanatic-level devotion to Trump and Trumpism isn't going away.  Ever.  Because nothing -- no event, no fact, nothing -- can make a dent in it.

Death

4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Put some numbers to the NC race.... If you believe there are 475k outstanding mail in ballots that are 2:1 D then Biden +316K, Trump +158K. Final total Biden 2,972,066, Trump 2,890,438.

If you apply the same logic to the Senate race but assume only 400k of those outstanding ballots cast a vote for the Senate (conservative number, I think), D +266K, R +133K. Total D (Cunningham) 2,810,372, R (Tillis) 2,773,701.

Is my math wrong? If not, NC is very much in play. And so is getting the Senate to 50/50.

 

And they have 9 days to wait for those ballots to come in as long as they were post marked yesterday. 

Anderson Cooper just called Twitter "Clitter" while talking to a chick lol. 

9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know what this means

 

Something brewing in NV is my guess.

Complete speculation though.

1 minute ago, Hookah Horns said:

Anderson Cooper just called Twitter "Clitter" while talking to a chick lol. 

What does he know about the Clitter?

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

It looks to me that the Maine and Nebraska split is kind of a wash. Maine is a blue state but Republicans took one. Nebraska is a red state but Democrats took one. If they were like other states, the overall electoral vote would be the same. 

Except the 3/1 split for Maine is the same as 2016, and we picked up the Nebraska district, this time around. So if we win 270-268... yeah, I'd say picking up NE-2 was a little more than a wash.

17 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That was amazing.  That they look to Rush for election prognostications.

I’m sure Rush said something like “Biden will not be president in my lifetime”, which is probably technically true.  

1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Anderson Cooper just said "Clitter.  I mean, uh, Twitter."

Closest he's ever been.

33 minutes ago, FOXHOUND said:

White voters, once again broke for Trump. White women even went up on their support. 

In other words, his base.

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is accurate.  Nothing matters.  It never has.  The religious-fanatic-level devotion to Trump and Trumpism isn't going away.  Ever.  Because nothing -- no event, no fact, nothing -- can make a dent in it.

 

Trump lead in Jah-ja now to just under 83,000.

Slowly dwindling as the day goes on.

Just now, Queen Bitch said:

Except the 3/1 split for Maine is the same as 2016, and we picked up the Nebraska district, this time around. So if we win 270-268... yeah, I'd say picking up NE-2 was a little more than a wash.

I get that, I'm comparing it to a situation where both states are like everyone else giving everything to the state's popular vote winner.

3 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Anyone else totally worn out?  3 hours of sleep last night, following this fucking election, yesterdays drinking, work (in name only, I'm not actually doing any).  I'm thinking the only fix is to start drinking now?

As I stated way back yesterday before the polls closed, I went to the rock gym and climbed while my kids practiced with their team as I do every Tuesday.  Got home about 9:30PM and had no phone access between 6 and 9:30.  So I missed all of the early drama and was there for the start of the comeback.  Things got stale and I went to bed at 11:30 after 1.5 glasses of wine.  Awoke refreshed with better news coming in. Hoping for more analytics and counts to help Bidden today....then I can celebrate.

I think I am more worn out by the last 4 years and in particular the last 8 months.

1 minute ago, LABEVO said:

 

And on this day, zero fucks were given...

28 minutes ago, FOXHOUND said:

Well we can't magically spawn more voters, white people are still the numerical majority in this country. And fuck outta here saying that's "loser mentality" talk, it's facts. Where the hell do you think more black votes will come from when we are 13 percent of the total population? The aether. White people need to gather their own, all of the abject failures of this administration and support for Trump is just as robust as it was in 2016.

 

But lets go off about black and brown folks. 

You can spawn more voters if the republicans get to outlaw abortions.  But then there’d be just as many more white voters. 
 

hey, when’s the last time the news programs talked about covid?  Was it...before the election?  The Rs were right!!

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Closest he's ever been.

Was he born by Cesarean?

This oddly starting to feel like 2018 in some ways again:  As late votes come in, things that looked Red, start looking blue.

2 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

Trump actually gained a ton on the border towns. Democrats need better candidates in Texas with latinos

Have we any good response on why the Latinos and Cuban-Americans voted the way they did in Miami?

 

My coworker is suggesting it has to do with the Cuba's living in a Dictatorship and the rights being taken away during the Pandemic were way to similar...

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

12% of 40% is even less than that, but 88% of 40% is still shit.

Texicans and Blacks let Texas down especially hard, but nationally the numbers were pretty bad in those categories for turnout (even though they were high in comparison to other years).

If Texicans and Blacks can't be bothered to vote, then they will continue to be ignored.

The actions and message by those in power and election results in the south communicate to these communities that their vote does not matter. So the only thing I do when communicating with folks in my community is talking to them about how reducing margins do matter because it sends a message. I went from 2012 to 2020 before I saw 100% participation by those I would talk too about why their vote mattered even if they lost. Maybe it was not what I said that got them to vote but I would like to think I had some influence. So instead of bitching find out what you can do to help change the mind set in these communities so that -5% becomes +1% in our lifetime. I have been working on it since it was 15%.

9 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Put some numbers to the NC race.... If you believe there are 475k outstanding mail in ballots that are 2:1 D then Biden +316K, Trump +158K. Final total Biden 2,972,066, Trump 2,890,438.

If you apply the same logic to the Senate race but assume only 400k of those outstanding ballots cast a vote for the Senate (conservative number, I think), D +266K, R +133K. Total D (Cunningham) 2,810,372, R (Tillis) 2,773,701.

Is my math wrong? If not, NC is very much in play. And so is getting the Senate to 50/50.

 

using the WSJ site, looks like there are 347k votes still to be counted.  Of those, 61.06% would have to break towards Biden to get to a tie.  Cal would need to do better than that.  He need 62%, or 20k, of the votes to tie. 

3 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

mascot burns GIF

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This has been the play the whole time.  They had good data that this would be a toss-up election, and sowing doubt and trying to win it by propaganda and in the courts will continue to be the play.  This is why I have expected and continue to expect violence.  The cult will not accept the results.

It is frustrating.  I had a heart to heart with my dad, who voted for Trump (His vote was more against the Democratic Party than it was for Trump).  His view is that everyone should vote, and we should make it easier for everyone to vote.  He was impressed with what Harris County did (800 polling locations was very impressive).  He also did not like that Trump was saying that only votes received by election day should be counted.  While he thinks that for something important like voting, it should be done in person (he does believe you should show ID to vote), if mail in votes are allowed, and as long as they are postmarked by election day, then his stance is that you count until you are done.  He point blank said the last thing he wanted, no matter who wins or loses is for the election to go to either the Courts a la 2000 or to the House of Representatives.  

So while the Democrats will never convert my dad to the Blue side, he is someone that has a problem with Trump's remarks last night.  

1 minute ago, MoJames said:

Have we any good response on why the Latinos and Cuban-Americans voted the way they did in Miami?

 

My coworker is suggesting it has to do with the Cuba's living in a Dictatorship and the rights being taken away during the Pandemic were way to similar...

Because they fell for the socialism fear mongering.

The South Texas abortion belt is very real. The priest tells them they have to vote for the guy who wants to deport them, because god.

Trumps current plan:

Stall concession by demanding recounts in WI and MI

Dig for votes in AZ and NV

Finish ahead in GA and NC

All out blitz on PA

In the end, get EV from NC, GA, AZ, PA, and WI 

 

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