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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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9 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

[Audelia Branch Library - Lake Highlands - 9 a.m.]

Took about 30 minutes start to finish.  Seemed like lots of people bringing in their voter reg cards to the polling location.  Line was moderately social distanced.  no one was crowding anyone and everyone had masks on.

 

Me and the daughter got there at 3:45 pm.  Got out at 4:55.  Nice father daughter time.  Didn't see anyone who looked particularly trumpy.  

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For what it’s worth, Tarrant County had about 42,000 votes today which is roughly 9% of the total early votes from 2016. It’s also about 6% of the total vote from 2016. I honestly was hoping for a little higher turnout than that. 

Edited by LurkingHorn
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9 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

For what it’s worth, Tarrant County had about 42,000 votes today which is roughly 9% of the total early votes from 2016. It’s also about 6% of the total vote from 2016. I honestly was hoping for a little higher turnout than that. 

We have an extra week / weekend and several polling places were down or at least got off to slow starts. I’m not too bummed about 40K.

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

We have an extra week / weekend and several polling places were down or at least got off to slow starts. I’m not too bummed about 40K.

I'm not worried about that at all.  I think a lot of people weren't rushing out in anticipation that it would be crowded.

We have 14 days of early voting.  I fully expect to see Tarrant have significantly more votes in 2020 than it did in 2016. 

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18 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not worried about that at all.  I think a lot of people weren't rushing out in anticipation that it would be crowded.

We have 14 days of early voting.  I fully expect to see Tarrant have significantly more votes in 2020 than it did in 2016. 

Technically, 17.  Oct.13-30.

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19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not worried about that at all.  I think a lot of people weren't rushing out in anticipation that it would be crowded.

We have 14 days of early voting.  I fully expect to see Tarrant have significantly more votes in 2020 than it did in 2016. 

Texas has 18 days of early voting, Oct 13 - 30.

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Ho-lee Fuck.  That's absolutely incredible.

Now here's the question: does Harris County (and for that matter, other counties) keep it up.  That's 10% of Harris County's entire vote in 2016.  If Harris keeps it up at close to the same pace--i.e., let's say it increases its vote by 25% (which would be incredible)--that would be 177,000 votes for Biden over what Clinton got at Clinton's share of the vote (i.e., assuming that Biden didn't improve on Clinton's share and those incremental voters went 54-42 for Biden).

Trump only beat Clinton by 800,000 votes in Texas.  And Harris County could alone cut significantly into that margin with a strong turnout.

I think Texas women are gonna show out for Biden. Hillary is just so fucking hated, but they'll happily vote for Joe over Trump. 

Harris County will be a Biden rout. I think you're right that he'll basically double up Hillary's 2016 margins. 

All gonna come down to the smaller towns/counties. If Joe can make a significant enough dent there, we have a real chance. 

 

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I also have no idea, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume the politically engaged O&G contingent in Harris was pretty activated in 2016 against Hillary and don’t have a lot to add four years later  

Whatever the D cap is there, high turnout ultimately means Joe runs up some numbers. Hillary carried about 54% and it will be a disappointment if Biden doesn’t do significantly better. 

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Can we go back to the announcement that only one drop box per county is allowed? How the fuck is that legal? And last minute the night before early voting. Fuck the GOP and their bullshit voter suppression tactics. Won’t be a few days until we here of fake drop off boxes popping up here too.

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2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Fort Bend County locations will be open for one extra hour all week because of the “errors” today.

All numbers will be higher with mail in ballots coming in as well

Yeah, that was a clusterfuck.  One of the excuses I heard from a Ft Bend Election worker was they didn't know about the extra week of EV until last Friday.  

 

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3 hours ago, Covri said:

Can we go back to the announcement that only one drop box per county is allowed? How the fuck is that legal? And last minute the night before early voting. Fuck the GOP and their bullshit voter suppression tactics. Won’t be a few days until we here of fake drop off boxes popping up here too.

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This is fair and justified to the current GOP.

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4 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

Yeah, that was a clusterfuck.  One of the excuses I heard from a Ft Bend Election worker was they didn't know about the extra week of EV until last Friday.  

 

If you’re an election worker, when you see Halloween decorations going up—-call the office and find out when you’re supposed to show for work.  

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I think Harris has a harder D cap than y’all think because of oil. 
It has a lower D margin than Dallas or Travis because of its size but that's already baked in. I don't think anyone expects it to vote 60 plus percent Democrat so I'd say exoectations are in line.

Trump got 42 percent in Harris County in 16 and he'll likely repeat that. Clinton got 54, maybe Biden improves on that slightly with the former third party vote likely to break more for him, though that wasn't a huge factor in Harris. Overall when turnout is that high in a D +12 county, it's a win.
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8 hours ago, Covri said:

Can we go back to the announcement that only one drop box per county is allowed? How the fuck is that legal? And last minute the night before early voting. Fuck the GOP and their bullshit voter suppression tactics. Won’t be a few days until we here of fake drop off boxes popping up here too.

 

5 hours ago, TexLonghorn said:

get?url=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F120850608_10219978524108131_874593816496535406_n.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D102%26_nc_sid%3D730e14%26_nc_ohc%3DyfRCnNZ67qsAX8ZB1FY%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent-ort2-2.xx%26oh%3D71cdc48acf36be2072490ecd18cb3db4%26oe%3D5FA13029&key=ewl6NeGQlbsLnTOONaf28A&w=600&h=440

This is fair and justified to the current GOP.

Yesterday morning, I put together this map in Excel on the voter suppression thread to demonstrate the absurdity of the decision, which I *humbly* think makes the point even better.

These 214 counties have a population that's roughly equivalent to that of Harris County: 4.7 million people. All I did was a quick sort on population size and summed up the smallest ones until I got to 4.7 million, which coincidentally is every county with a population that's less than 100,000 (according to 2019 Census estimates).

Picture1.png

I like this map, too, in that it demonstrates that Texas is truly an urban state in spite of how many of us like to think of ourselves. Everything that is in RED accounts for just 16 percent of the total population -- the same share as Harris County alone.

 

Edited by bolverk
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9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Yesterday morning, I put together this map in Excel on the voter suppression thread to demonstrate the absurdity of the decision, which I *humbly* think makes the point even better.

These 214 counties have a population that's roughly equivalent to that of Harris County: 4.7 million people. All I did was a quick sort on population size and summed up the smallest ones until I got to 4.7 million, which coincidentally is every county with a population that's less than 100,000 (according to 2019 Census estimates).

Picture1.png

I like this map, too, in that it demonstrates that Texas is truly an urban state in spite of how many of us like to think of ourselves. Everything that is in RED accounts for just 16 percent of the total population -- the same share as Harris County alone.

 

Maybe Texas should just set up 1 box in Brady.  Equidistant to everyone for the most part.  Totally legal and totally cool.

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Reason #47636 I’m glad I moved from Texas to a blue state. I live in a county with less than 20,000 residents and we have 3 drop off locations.

 Migrations have tended to follow jobs, jobs have followed businesses and businesses pursue favorable conditions.   With the pandemic cementing the ability for a lot of people to work remote, I wonder how many more people will be freed to migrate where the governance more closely matches their worldview?  Probably a topic for another thread.

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

It has a lower D margin than Dallas or Travis because of its size but that's already baked in. I don't think anyone expects it to vote 60 plus percent Democrat so I'd say exoectations are in line.

Trump got 42 percent in Harris County in 16 and he'll likely repeat that. Clinton got 54, maybe Biden improves on that slightly with the former third party vote likely to break more for him, though that wasn't a huge factor in Harris. Overall when turnout is that high in a D +12 county, it's a win.

My complete guess is that Biden will get something like 56-57, Trump 40 in Harris County.  With changing demographics and such intense hatred of Trump, I can't see how he hits his previous %.  Beto won Harris county 58-41.  I see Trump slightly under-performing Cruz.

And for comments on this board that Harris County has too much O&G and that will prop up Trump. Many O&G people are losing their jobs daily. It's hard to believe that some of them won't blame Trump somewhat for that. Whether they will admit it, they did great when Obama was in office. 

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6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My complete guess is that Biden will get something like 56-57, Trump 40 in Harris County.  With changing demographics and such intense hatred of Trump, I can't see how he hits his previous %.  Beto won Harris county 58-41.  I see Trump slightly under-performing Cruz.

And for comments on this board that Harris County has too much O&G and that will prop up Trump. Many O&G people are losing their jobs daily. It's hard to believe that some of them won't blame Trump somewhat for that. Whether they will admit it, they did great when Obama was in office. 

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COVID shutdowns brought a barrel of oil into the negatives cause of the glut of supply when nobody was driving, right? I would hope those in the industry not vote for a party or a candidate who believes its a hoax, until it's a Chinese plague, until they individually contract and are hospitalized from it, and then call it a plague and a hoax at the same time again.

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For those disappointed by some of the early numbers compared to 2016, let's not forget, let's NOT forget that these numbers are up IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.  There's literally a deadly virus spreading like wildfire with no vaccine and people are still eclipsing early voting numbers, not to mention the mail in ballots that aren't being counted yet.

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5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

For those disappointed by some of the early numbers compared to 2016, let's not forget, let's NOT forget that these numbers are up IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.  There's literally a deadly virus spreading like wildfire with no vaccine and people are still eclipsing early voting numbers, not to mention the mail in ballots that aren't being counted yet.

great point. We also have more early voting days in 2020 so even matching the 2016 daily numbers is still a decent increase.  

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Voted this morning at Leander City Hall. From the time I left the house until I'm back at my desk was almost exactly 1hr, and I stopped for breakfast tacos on the way home. Line took about 15-20 minutes. As I was walking back to my truck, I passed an older white couple getting into their car and overheard the guy say "If there was only a Republican, I just left it blank". My dudes, if they've lost 60-something white men in Williamson County....

Also, the lady in line in front of me was turned away because she had requested a mail in ballot and had shown up to vote in person and didn't bring the ballot. I guess their systems know you've requested a mail in ballot, and you have to surrender the ballot and fill out a form if you want to vote in person. 

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27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

For those disappointed by some of the early numbers compared to 2016, let's not forget, let's NOT forget that these numbers are up IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.  There's literally a deadly virus spreading like wildfire with no vaccine and people are still eclipsing early voting numbers, not to mention the mail in ballots that aren't being counted yet.

There's also a three week window and people know that.  A lot are waiting until next week.

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49 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Long lines again this morning in Fort Bend County.

 

13 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Wife drove by our polling location in Katy and its unlike anything I've ever seen.

Just remember, polls stay open to 7 pm all week now due to the F*ck up yesterday.

As of this morning, the website wasn’t updated with the revised times.

Just checked and they now show 7pm as the closure time.

Also you can vote in any site in FB county. There’s something like 3 total FB places in Katy / Cinco Ranch area and one in Fulshear.

I wasn’t going to vote this week because I wasn’t going to be able to leave work early enough to make 5 pm.

Now I don’t have an excuse.

Going to vote tonight. 

 

 

Edited by Dnaguy
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