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2021 Rain Thread


South Austin

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6 years ago today.  Many of us were on this board, our collective jaws dropping that night as the Blanco rose 36 feet in 4 hours -  5 feet every 15 minutes from 10:45 P to to 11:45 P.

Will never forget going to Wimberley that following Wednesday to volunteer - indelibly etched: mammoth, really mammoth, 500-year-old plus Cypress trees toppled like matchsticks and a Porsche 911 sitting on the foundation where a house used to sit.   I don't think they ever found the body of the little McCombs girl or the Charba boy. 

Bad, bad day, really captured well in the Texas Monthly piece: https://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/wimberley-floods-memorial-day-weekend-2015/

https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf

 

image.png.d35c164308041b9a9e0e7ce388f52529.png

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Yeah, that guy has been unbelievably "steady" in every interview I've seen of him.  I don't know how you go on from that night, but he seems to have done it about as well as it can be done. 

The very next year The Woodlands got hit.  That was such a crazy rain event.  We had 21 inches of rain here in 24 hours.  We had some friends coming in from Austin that were just ahead of the rising s rivers a couple of times.  They had just crossed the Brazos on 290 about an hour before they closed it and crossed of Cypress Creek just about 30 minutes before it was flooded over.  This was from Spring Creek leaving its banks very close to where I live.

 

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Colorado River near San Saba May 23 2021 1:25PM   7,416 CFS    YESTERDAY CFS 236          468
 
Buchanan is fixin  to catch some water...........
I've been watching it all morning.  I'll be there in a couple of weeks.  I hope it comes up quite a bit.
 
 
This was about an hour or so ago.

c790d4ad7e13eab690c52d16988ffca7.jpg
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I have my window cracked and the temp is perfect and I can hear a healthy rain while I watch One Flew Over the Cuckoo's nest.

Just awesome.

Also the co-nurse in that film is a fucking smoke show. 

Edited by ztejas
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21 hours ago, Hpara759 said:
Colorado River near San Saba May 23 2021 1:25PM   7,416 CFS    YESTERDAY CFS 236          468

 

Buchanan is fixin  to catch some water...........

Already down to 1,423 CFS. Buchanan and Travis will be lucky to rise more than a foot from all of this. Guess the bullseyes all missed the watershed. My folks in San Saba got about 1.5" the other night, while a neighbor a few miles away got a little over 10". 

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21 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Had to take the back roads home from The Heights area (59 was just terribad) and man, some of those folks in East Aldine are properly fucked due to rapidly rising water. 

Houston is a shitshow right now. 

I 45 is closed in both directions due to a big rig fire. 

288 is closed at different points due to high water. 

Sounds like a nightmare on the roads right now. 

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Just absolutely terrible here in Huffman northeast of Houston. It just won’t ever stop raining. My 6 acres is almost Completely under 3-6 inches of rain. The 4 foot deep gully’s are all flooded and there’s water on the street with nowhere for it to go, and there’s a massive tree down on my road covering 80% of my road. I imagine the road won’t be passable in 45 minutes unless they get the tree sliced up and off the road. 

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5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Last 24 hrs:

Baytown - 0.2 inches of rain

 

Meanwhile... 15 miles northwest,

South Atascocita - 7.1 inches of rain

Yeah, I live off Lake Houston (selling my house tho!) just nawf of Summerwood--it's been raining hard here for nearly 5 hours straight.  Good thing we have good drainage over here.

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The whole $1B thing is just insanely bad.  So bad.
 
Anyway, we had 3" last here in SW Austin but 3" here comes and goes.  Creeks fill up but the neighborhood doesn't have any puddles.  Would hate to be in Houston now.

Yeah, last night was a good amount of rain for sw Austin.
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Last 24 hrs:
Baytown - 0.2 inches of rain
 
Meanwhile... 15 miles northwest,
South Atascocita - 7.1 inches of rain

This. Highly variable rainfall. Greater Uptown area has had a couple of inches over the last two days. Minor puddling on some streets but no big deal getting home this evening from downtown.
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Some weather models are hinting at another "cut off low" for the middle of next week.  It would be nice to dry out for a few days if that does indeed happen, but there would still be a possibility of some pretty good flooding. 

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_11.png

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9 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

If I wanted Houston Phoenix weather I would live in Houston Phoenix. A couple fucking days of sun rain would be cool. 

On August 15th you'll say the fixed above.  There'll be more than enough sun for you and your next ten generations starting in about 2-3 weeks.

This has been one of the coolest and wettest Mays (in certain areas for sure) of the 2000's, at least east of 281.  We haven't hit 90° in 2 1/2 weeks, and a third of the days in that stretch didn't even make 80°.  It's been like paradise.

And as Hate's post above predicts, after a brief warm/dry spell around Memorial Day (I know, this I gotta see, too), early June is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal.  Gawd do I hope so.

Ad I will never, ever get sick of any rain (minus severe weather) in May-September.  If I don't see the sun for 20 more days I'll do my happy dance.  Yeah the E/Centex flooding is not cool, but that's gonna change starting really late tomorrow anyway. 

I'm happier than a fly on a shitball about the weather this month.

While I'm here, recap/update.

The not-quite-hurricane slid past us on Sat. and dissolved.  A new low trough formed in the Gulf and somewhat unusually for us in late May, started streaming tons of moisture up our way.  The other reason is a huge high.  This high normally is poised to park over us in the summer, and of course when it does, it's horrible.  All around us is a "ring of rain" as you know.  Well, this high is plopped over GA and MS and as a pleasant surprise, these lows can't go anywhere (blocked!) and so we're on the western side of the "ring of rain."  Temps in SE U.S. will approach records as they bake under that high for another day or two, while our temps will be at or below normal, under the "rain ring."  The last times we had a setup like this were 2007 and 2015 - both great rainy, cool summers.  And in fact we had some of this 4 of the last 5 years, but it broke down by July and the goddamned high did it's heat-shitting all over us.

The idea is, the longer we can push it off before the earth gets into autumn position around the sun, the better.  I'm still wary that mid-late summer is gonna be brutal as has been the case most of the new millennium, but one can hope.  So far it's been awesome.

Forecast though is for this low to gradually weaken and high pressure move in a bit.  This will explain about Wed through Memorial Day.  It should finally make the 90's, maybe get to the mid 90's, but probably way too much moisture/living flora from all these great rains to bake the ground and raise temps.  So not a good chance of triples yet - yippie!  So the rains should slowly exit... tomorrow will be like today but I think with more sun breaks and less rain.  Still a good chance of a tropical shower or two and in/out sun.  Wednesday becomes more sunny than cloudy.  Then some sunny days lead up to and through the Mem Day Weekend.

Hopefully the low in Hate's post will move in and bring some more clouds/rain the first week of June.  Temps hover in the 90° neighborhood, rain chances fair but not like lately.  Still, it's better than say 2011 when we'd had like 2" of rain since March, temps in late May were hitting 100° or not really much below the mid 90's, and it was dry and hot.  This here, this is good.

More on anything of significance over the next day or two.

Edited by phdhorn
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Guest Lobo

Way to jinx it dude.  

Yes, it has been a rather pleasant spring.  Lovely mornings and nighttimes.  Sufficient rainfall.  Some of my trees are still all kinda fucked up from the freeze, but hope that improves.  3+ more weeks of Spring, may they be moderate and moist, just like Megyn Kelly.  

 

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

On August 15th you'll say the fixed above.  There'll be more than enough sun for you and your next ten generations starting in about 2-3 weeks.

This has been one of the coolest and wettest Mays (in certain areas for sure) of the 2000's, at least east of 281.  We haven't hit 90° in 2 1/2 weeks, and a third of the days in that stretch didn't even make 80°.  It's been like paradise.

And as Hate's post above predicts, after a brief warm/dry spell around Memorial Day (I know, this I gotta see, too), early June is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal.  Gawd do I hope so.

Ad I will never, ever get sick of any rain (minus severe weather) in May-September.  If I don't see the sun for 20 more days I'll do my happy dance.  Yeah the E/Centex flooding is not cool, but that's gonna change starting really late tomorrow anyway. 

I'm happier than a fly on a shitball about the weather this month.

While I'm here, recap/update.

The not-quite-hurricane slid past us on Sat. and dissolved.  A new low trough formed in the Gulf and somewhat unusually for us in late May, started streaming tons of moisture up our way.  The other reason is a huge high.  This high normally is poised to park over us in the summer, and of course when it does, it's horrible.  All around us is a "ring of rain" as you know.  Well, this high is plopped over GA and MS and as a pleasant surprise, these lows can't go anywhere (blocked!) and so we're on the western side of the "ring of rain."  Temps in SE U.S. will approach records as they bake under that high for another day or two, while our temps will be at or below normal, under the "rain ring."  The last times we had a setup like this were 2007 and 2015 - both great rainy, cool summers.  And in fact we had some of this 4 of the last 5 years, but it broke down by July and the goddamned high did it's heat-shitting all over us.

The idea is, the longer we can push it off before the earth gets into autumn position around the sun, the better.  I'm still wary that mid-late summer is gonna be brutal as has been the case most of the new millennium, but one can hope.  So far it's been awesome.

Forecast though is for this low to gradually weaken and high pressure move in a bit.  This will explain about Wed through Memorial Day.  It should finally make the 90's, maybe get to the mid 90's, but probably way too much moisture/living flora from all these great rains to bake the ground and raise temps.  So not a good chance of triples yet - yippie!  So the rains should slowly exit... tomorrow will be like today but I think with more sun breaks and less rain.  Still a good chance of a tropical shower or two and in/out sun.  Wednesday becomes more sunny than cloudy.  Then some sunny days lead up to and through the Mem Day Weekend.

Hopefully the low in Hate's post will move in and bring some more clouds/rain the first week of June.  Temps hover in the 90° neighborhood, rain chances fair but not like lately.  Still, it's better than say 2011 when we'd had like 2" of rain since March, temps in late May were hitting 100° or not really much below the mid 90's, and it was dry and hot.  This here, this is good.

More on anything of significance over the next day or two.

I agree with u. I will take the rain over drought any day. No question it is much needed and welcome. 

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Kiss of death. Ducking in advance. 

 

There have been 59 tornadoes rated F5 or EF-5 in the United States in modern record since 1950.

The last EF-5 tornado in the United States was in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013. As of May 20, 2021, the eighth anniversary of the 2013 Moore Oklahoma tornado, it’s been 2,922 days since the last EF-5 tornado in the United States.

The longest F5 or EF-5 drought in modern history was also 2,922 days between the May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore F-5 tornado and the May 4, 2007 EF-5 Tornado in Greensburg, Kansas.

 

 

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/u-s-on-the-verge-of-setting-a-new-ef-5-tornado-drought-record/

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Update:
Friday night probably gonna rain as a front blows through.  Slight severe very scattered.
Saturday maybe rain in the morning then drying.
Sunday-Monday no rain, temps high 80's.

When you say Friday night, is my 4pm tee time safe? Tried to sneak one in on the happy hour rate. When we booked best guess was it sold be fine, but of course, the universe conspires.
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