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The Recession


Neonmoon
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I just know that I’m not going to look at my retirement account balance until at least 2024.

For the first time in probably 5 years, I haven’t looked at either my 401K or investment accounts in a month. Normally I look at least once daily.
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My company is preparing for 18 months of flat growth.  We are in shipping/fulfillment for e-commerce.  Between ending pandemic buying trends, inflation, interest rates and recession fears, leadership is freaked out.

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Finance side is definitely expecting a recession in the next few months 

already seeing non strip club precursors 

We already had the Great Recession. Will this be called the Little Recession? Covid Recession? 

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2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Finance side is definitely expecting a recession in the next few months 

already seeing non strip club precursors 

We already had the Great Recession. Will this be called the Little Recession? Covid Recession? 

Insurrection and Sabotage Recession already taken?

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59 minutes ago, Goredho said:

My company is preparing for 18 months of flat growth.  We are in shipping/fulfillment for e-commerce.  Between ending pandemic buying trends, inflation, interest rates and recession fears, leadership is freaked out.

Your guitar buying may single-handedly pull us out of any recession. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, freyguy said:

color me simple, but how can we have a recession when supply has still not even remotely caught up with demand?


Also, seems to be a lot of high paying jobs

if you can turn a wrench, work safe in shitty conditions, willing to to be on the road, and pass a drug test. There a plenty high paying millwright jobs 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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There's also lots of gubment work. It pays less than private sector, but it's recession proof.

The worst that happens is hiring freezes, which actually fucks things up for years afterwards. People retiring with no one to pass information to.

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8 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

So I shouldn’t become a stripper right now?  GODDAMMIT all them pole dancin classes for nothin. Welp, back to murdering grannies for their jewels and SS checks. 

Bernie, is that you?

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18 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

So I shouldn’t become a stripper right now?  GODDAMMIT all them pole dancin classes for nothin. Welp, back to murdering grannies for their jewels and SS checks. 


Ive thought about it, but no way in hell a g-string can hold my balls 

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The classic definition of "recession" is pretty simplistic -- I would think it could be met under any number of economic environments.  According to this article, that definition is no longer recognized, instead replaced by what seems to be a less concrete and fuzzier version, which is news to me:

Quote

A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators such as a rise in unemployment. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions, says the two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP are not how it is defined anymore. The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.1

NBER definition of recession

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8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The classic definition of "recession" is pretty simplistic -- I would think it could be met under any number of economic environments.  According to this article, that definition is no longer recognized, instead replaced by what seems to be a less concrete and fuzzier version, which is news to me:

NBER definition of recession

I fully expect the national media to understand nuance and report accordingly.

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Posted (edited)
Quote

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased (table 2).

that seems ok

Quote

The decrease in private inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade (mainly motor vehicles) and retail trade (notably, "other" retailers and motor vehicle dealers).

cars cars cars

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Within exports, widespread decreases in nondurable goods were partly offset by an increase in "other" business services (mainly financial services). ... The increase in imports was led by increases in durable goods (notably, nonfood and nonautomotive consumer goods).

strong dollar isn't going to help exports

Quote

The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services.

huh

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022-advance-estimate

 

 

  

16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The classic definition of "recession" is pretty simplistic -- I would think it could be met under any number of economic environments.  According to this article, that definition is no longer recognized, instead replaced by what seems to be a less concrete and fuzzier version, which is news to me:

NBER definition of recession

they did this so policy makers could react quicker. 

Edited by elfenix
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I’ve been holding off on buying a retirement home / 2nd house. Told a buddy last week, if trump gets elected he’s taking this long economy and to new lows. Housing market will be at historic lows. 

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:


Also, seems to be a lot of high paying jobs

if you can turn a wrench, work safe in shitty conditions, willing to to be on the road, and pass a drug test. There a plenty high paying millwright jobs 

Semiconductors will hire anyone at all positions with a pulse right now, and is throwing serious bank at folks with any semblance of experience.

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4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Finance side is definitely expecting a recession in the next few months 

already seeing non strip club precursors 

We already had the Great Recession. Will this be called the Little Recession? Covid Recession? 

The Not So Soft Landing. 
 

The Fed wants a slowdown to help tame inflation. I’m sure they’re aware that a recession is quite possible. There are a couple tail risks involved with this strategy. The first is quickly rising interest rates breaking something in the financial system and then contagion following. The other is engineering a slowdown or recession and inflation not being greatly affected. Then you have to ease/print money into elevated inflation. Ruh roh.


FWIW Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate is currently 2.4% for Q2. 

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So what was the trigger point here?  What’ll be the historical wiki summary?
 

I can point to 2008ish quite clearly with the dark securities house-of-cards collapsing via the housing market.  

Post-Covid surging demand hits the brick wall of long-lead manufacturing shutoff in tech, consolidation / lack of refining capacity in the oil industry, low rates + excessive stimulus for undeserving businesses driving too much capital, marginalized and pissed off work force, war in Ukraine = inflation and stagnant wages slowing buying power?

I don’t follow the economy very closely though I am pissy about companies leveraging those opportunities to buy back stock in huge numbers.  And yeah I fear it’ll drive a massive backlash to the right for even more deregulation so ‘businesses can get moving again’ leading to more predatory behavior on their part.  

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2 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

The Not So Soft Landing. 
 

The Fed wants a slowdown to help tame inflation. I’m sure they’re aware that a recession is quite possible. There are a couple tail risks involved with this strategy. The first is quickly rising interest rates breaking something in the financial system and then contagion following. The other is engineering a slowdown or recession and inflation not being greatly affected. Then you have to ease/print money into elevated inflation. Ruh roh.


FWIW Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate is currently 2.4% for Q2. 

So help me understand this…yell ‘government needs to do something about inflation gas is ridiculous’, they want to do something by raising rates, ‘if they do something by raising rates it could further break the economy’.  
 

So what’s your take on the right answer?

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18 minutes ago, Homercles said:

So help me understand this…yell ‘government needs to do something about inflation gas is ridiculous’, they want to do something by raising rates, ‘if they do something by raising rates it could further break the economy’.  
 

So what’s your take on the right answer?

The Fed is not really the government. At least it isn’t supposed to be. 
 

The right answer from the Fed side would’ve been to hike rates before inflation got so hot. Now they’re overcompensating by hiking quickly. They’re basically trying to centrally plan the world’s largest pump n dump. It’s hard to do. We’re in the dump phase now, but they will pump it again. 
 

On the government side we spent too much on stimulus and overfed the demand side. Also, in retrospect shutting down the economy at the beginning of Covid was a bad idea. Started the inflationary impulse through the economy. 

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7 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

I did. I didn’t want to retire early anyhow. 

But it gives you more opportunities to work 20+ hour days for months on end and try to convince people that makes you some sort of badass.

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3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

But it gives you more opportunities to work 20+ hour days for months on end and try to convince people that makes you some sort of badass.

Lol.  Sort like working with a bunch of guys who were afraid to go to…KL? Between that story and the way you are here, seems your employer put little bitch at the top of the priority list. 

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2 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

The Not So Soft Landing. 
 

The Fed wants a slowdown to help tame inflation. I’m sure they’re aware that a recession is quite possible. There are a couple tail risks involved with this strategy. The first is quickly rising interest rates breaking something in the financial system and then contagion following. The other is engineering a slowdown or recession and inflation not being greatly affected. Then you have to ease/print money into elevated inflation. Ruh roh.


FWIW Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate is currently 2.4% for Q2. 

I've heard it on good authority the only solution is . . . 

Spoiler

You know what I'm going to say already.

Spoiler

BITCOINT!!!!!!!!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Also, in retrospect shutting down the economy at the beginning of Covid was a bad idea. 

All kidding aside, this is an amazing statement.  Why, yes, we should have just kept going.  Only a million people died of Covid.  Do we really miss them? Not really, so why would another two or three million matter.  

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