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2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble


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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

While Dems should be celebrating the overall results, there is the sobering truth that they barely won many races in which the GOP put up some of the worst candidates they could find. If the less-horrible candidate has won the GOP primary, this could be a different result.

the point being that the Dems shouldn’t take these results as approval from the US public.

Yeah I know. But I have no idea what the American public wants. If they wanted the GOP but less horrible...well they had that but drove the less horrible ones out of office for being less horrible.

Though they seem to want legal weed so I hope Biden concludes that on a federal level.

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While Dems should be celebrating the overall results, there is the sobering truth that they barely won many races in which the GOP put up some of the worst candidates they could find. If the less-horrible candidate has won the GOP primary, this could be a different result.
the point being that the Dems shouldn’t take these results as approval from the US public.

Flip side of that is that Democratic PACs sunk a bunch of money in helping those horrible candidates get elected in the Republican primaries in selected areas.

And the Democrats took a RAFT of shit for that - mostly from the press and other Democrats.

But those crazy Republicans they boosted? Lost every single election.

Despite the fact that the media has a hard on for framing every story as “How bad is this for Joe Biden?” and the fact that a good portion of pundits and very online political junkies (including this board) love to savage the DNC for shitty instincts and bad messaging, Joe and this iteration of the DNC are pretty good at politics.
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If the non-Maricopa counties continue to give their votes at the % they already are to Lake and Hobbs, Lake needs 59% of the remaining Maricopa votes to win. 

Hobb counties left with a decent amount of outstanding votes: Apache (68% counted), Coconino (93%), Pima (87%)

Lake counties: Cochise (82%), Navajo (88%), Pinal (88%)

The 201k in Maricopa is the whole shebang 

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43 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

This is calculated.  I am telling you, don’t sleep on Rick Scott.  He’s sidling to Trump and ready to take Trump’s mantle in a way DeSantis can’t because Scott doesn’t have a history of public Trump bootlicking (never mind behind the scenes). He’s his own greedy rich supervillain but also self made (with the help of a hint of fraud), which will resonate.  I

That agenda he put out earlier this year is nightmare fuel, but now he can also claim he has a plan.  Particularly since McConnel’s war (the courts) is more or less won.  
 

If DeSantis is Brutus, Scott is Marc Anthony. Who is Jennifer Lopez?  We shall see.  

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It's a good showing this round, and getting 51 in the Senate would be great, but I don't see how the Dems end up with control of the House. I think at this point it will be the Rs with 219. A narrow margin, but a minor win for them. 

If the Dems somehow pull it off and get 218, they need to add a voting seat for some of the Native American tribes as has been discussed before. They can't fix districts in the super red states, so the best they can do to counter is adding a couple valid seats to the House and fighting for those spots. 

They also need to push through allowing the DC rep to vote, which is ridiculous that they do not get a say in the House. That is the epitome of Taxation without representation right there. 

Puerto Rico, Guam, Somoa, Virgin Islands and the other non-voting members should be allowed to vote too.  I realize those aren't gimmes for either party, but it's wrong for them to not have votes. They deserve to be represented in the House if they are going to be controlled by the US. The Rs certainly aren't going to give those people voting rights, so the Ds have to do it if it's going to happen.  

 

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Yeah either allow the territories voting members or make them states. The territory status was always supposed to be a temporary provisional status before statehood, not a permanent state of second class citizens.

Obviously DC is another issue. Simply giving them one voting rep is certainly the easiest solution.

But all this strikes me as needing a constitutional amendment and just having an amendment that says the sky is blue seems a daunting task these days.

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3 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

This is calculated.  I am telling you, don’t sleep on Rick Scott.  He’s sidling to Trump and ready to take Trump’s mantle in a way DeSantis can’t because Scott doesn’t have a history of public Trump bootlicking (never mind behind the scenes). He’s his own greedy rich supervillain but also self made (with the help of a hint of fraud), which will resonate.  I

That agenda he put out earlier this year is nightmare fuel, but now he can also claim he has a plan.  Particularly since McConnel’s war (the courts) is more or less won.  
 

If DeSantis is Brutus, Scott is Marc Anthony. Who is Jennifer Lopez?  We shall see.  

I don't doubt it's calculated. I'm just not sure it's going to work. Turtle has withstood a lot of attacks. If Scott wants to double down on the shitty ideas that got his side beat, that's fine with me. McConnell said that they had to quit picking shitty candidates. The shitty candidates embrace Trumpism and the voters reward them in the primaries. I don't know how they get weaned off of performance cruelty.

 

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While Dems should be celebrating the overall results, there is the sobering truth that they barely won many races in which the GOP put up some of the worst candidates they could find. If the less-horrible candidate has won the GOP primary, this could be a different result.
the point being that the Dems shouldn’t take these results as approval from the US public.

I agree that this seems like a temporary pause in a generally bleak path. Two things that make me feel better about it: 1) the culture warfare that is at the heart of the Republican brand always loses impact as time goes on. In ten years, the swing vote will not give a shit about pronouns or CRT. It becomes normalized in the culture and it loses its value as a political issue. 2) more importantly, the kids are alright. They are the motherfucking cavalry. More of them will get the right to vote. More of them will exercise that right. And they are overwhelmingly voting blue. We just need to hold the line for another cycle or two.
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I’m not saying it’s good for the Republican Party.  I’m just saying it may work.  Scott is  more like McConnell the people realize - ultimately a fiscal conservative working ti preserve generational wealth of the 1% (particularly since he is first generation rich) on the backs of social conservatives pushing issues he could care less about to advance his agenda. He has also never aligned himself as MAGA, so can dodge that, and generally is willing and perfectly happy to look foolish on TV to avoid being forced to stake ground on a position or alliance.  The dude has a skill set similar to Ted Cruz, except those that like him really like him.  He has friends in high places.  And he couldn’t give a shit about those that don’t like him.

He hates DeSantis (read up on the governor transition and competing inauguration parties) and this is going to be a fight.  That it is two Florida governors is just extra. 

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30 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I’m not saying it’s good for the Republican Party.  I’m just saying it may work.  Scott is  more like McConnell the people realize - ultimately a fiscal conservative working ti preserve generational wealth of the 1% (particularly since he is first generation rich) on the backs of social conservatives pushing issues he could care less about to advance his agenda. He has also never aligned himself as MAGA, so can dodge that, and generally is willing and perfectly happy to look foolish on TV to avoid being forced to stake ground on a position or alliance.  The dude has a skill set similar to Ted Cruz, except those that like him really like him.  He has friends in high places.  And he couldn’t give a shit about those that don’t like him.

He hates DeSantis (read up on the governor transition and competing inauguration parties) and this is going to be a fight.  That it is two Florida governors is just extra. 

 

rick scott is much dumber than the turtle and has a horrible agenda in place ...

 

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1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah either allow the territories voting members or make them states. The territory status was always supposed to be a temporary provisional status before statehood, not a permanent state of second class citizens.

Obviously DC is another issue. Simply giving them one voting rep is certainly the easiest solution.

But all this strikes me as needing a constitutional amendment and just having an amendment that says the sky is blue seems a daunting task these days.

The territories don’t need a constitutional amendment. You can make them states whenever. That’s a power solely reserved to Congress and the executive through law making.

DC is unclear, since voting for DC was made through a constitutional amendment and it’s not clear if the entire district can be abolished without a constitutional amendment.   Most DC advocates think the way mostly likely to survive a challenge, even with this court, is to shrink the District down to just the immediate land of Congress, Supreme Court, Mall, and White House, and turn the remaining land into a new state.  There’s nothing in the constitution that mandates the size and shape of DC and the Court already allowed a boundary change when it retrocessed Arlington and Alexandria into VA. 

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1 hour ago, Tuco said:


I agree that this seems like a temporary pause in a generally bleak path. Two things that make me feel better about it: 1) the culture warfare that is at the heart of the Republican brand always loses impact as time goes on. In ten years, the swing vote will not give a shit about pronouns or CRT. It becomes normalized in the culture and it loses its value as a political issue. 2) more importantly, the kids are alright. They are the motherfucking cavalry. More of them will get the right to vote. More of them will exercise that right. And they are overwhelmingly voting blue. We just need to hold the line for another cycle or two.

Add to that the fact republicans are always publicly talking about cutting social security and Medicare. This really should be a huge part of Dem messaging when sound bites and video exist.

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Not many demos have the time to stand in line for 3 hours to vote. what is the unemployed voter breakdown?  

I think the other group that this would "benefit"' are retirees. The people with jobs aren't going to take off half a day to vote. Maybe that's the R endgame, add express lanes for seniors, and they can clog the voting system to discourage other demos.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Dutchrudder said:

Not many demos have the time to stand in line for 3 hours to vote. what is the unemployed voter breakdown?  

I think the other group that this would "benefit"' are retirees. The people with jobs aren't going to take off half a day to vote. Maybe that's the R endgame, add express lanes for seniors, and they can clog the voting system to discourage other demos.

 

This is absolutely the goal.  Dem voting locations will have 5 hour lines. R locations will have no waits.  And the Supreme Court will be like ...

community-ken-jeong.gif

 

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The conservative mind will always look to eliminate Dem votes and not attempt to attract new voters to the GOP? This is because they don’t want to shift positions to embrace a wider constituency.  Miller may not actually hate black or Hispanic people, he just doesn’t them voting. They’re not real Americans like him.  (His opinion, not mine.)

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

While Dems should be celebrating the overall results, there is the sobering truth that they barely won many races in which the GOP put up some of the worst candidates they could find. If the less-horrible candidate has won the GOP primary, this could be a different result.

the point being that the Dems shouldn’t take these results as approval from the US public.

Yea I don’t agree with this take at all.

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18 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Not many demos have the time to stand in line for 3 hours to vote. what is the unemployed voter breakdown?  

I think the other group that this would "benefit"' are retirees. The people with jobs aren't going to take off half a day to vote. Maybe that's the R endgame, add express lanes for seniors, and they can clog the voting system to discourage other demos.

 

 

We can stand in line for tickets to the big show. We can stand in line to vote. Taking away early voting where they can will hurt Rs too. She's an idiot.

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18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The conservative mind will always look to eliminate Dem votes and not attempt to attract new voters to the GOP? This is because they don’t want to shift positions to embrace a wider constituency.  Miller may not actually hate black or Hispanic people, he just doesn’t them voting. They’re not real Americans like him.  (His opinion, not mine.)

Miller has hated black and browns since his high school days.

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14 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Yea I don’t agree with this take at all.

Redistribute about 50k votes nationally and the Dems would have lost the senate.  Didn’t Biden really only defeat trump by 100k or so in key states? Thinking Dems are in good position for ‘24 is 100% wrong. And as today, the ‘24 senate races look horrible for democrats. They need to work to change that.

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4 minutes ago, bluto said:

Soooo like wouldn’t doing away with early voting only exacerbate the delayed counts?

 

correct + the older R's voting base will just say 'fuck it' or they're physically able to stand in line for that long

 

Texas solution - all counties with 400k and above, will have very special voting rules 

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4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

CBS News - 2022 Election (win or projected to win):

  • 155 Republican election deniers in the new House.
  • 9 in the Senate.
  • 7 Governors.
  • 5 AG’s.
  • 2 Lt. Govs.
  • 3 Secretaries of State. 

9961C2AE-A991-4208-AD3F-35CCAD6F552E.thumb.jpeg.4a0e8004f23676a0830661c408a1d9a3.jpeg
 

DA21BF45-636A-4CEC-A4CA-F77FC0B3ABED.thumb.jpeg.614e423c383206889b6cdc347218b0db.jpeg

The Clown Car is still bursting at the seams. Repubs will lick his boots again. 

YUP.  Have fun GQP.  This is you for the foreseeable future.

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20 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

I know hard to quantify, what are the thoughts of Covid deaths and costing Rs some seats?

It's hard to say how many voters died for each party, but I never met an anti-vaxxer that was a Democrat. Some "libertarians" but the vast majority were Republicans who either don't trust science,the government, big pharma or think the COVID vaccine is The Mark of the Beast (not kidding). I am in Texas, so that probably skews my experience.  If those people died at a significantly higher rate, then it probably did cause a few seats to flip this year and will have ripple effects for years to come. I think it's fair to say it definitely had a negative effect on Republicans more so than Dems. 

 

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