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2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread


Hate

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Spent the weekend in NYC where it was in the low 40's most of the time. Landing back in Houston yesterday to mid-70's and humid was a bit obnoxious. It has been a steady 15-20 degrees above average for the last 7 days straight. Most of the trees in my neighborhood still have the majority of their leaves and we're dealing with mosquitoes in freaking mid-December.

Definitely won't mind an extended stretch of cooler temps, and happy to see that current long-range forecasts currently envision a cold-but-not-freezing Xmas Weekend. That said, obviously hoping that the more aggressive models are overestimating and we're not looking at a deep freeze scenario with power outages and iced over roads.

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From what I understand, the grid is ready and we shouldn't have the issues like we did last time.  Now, if there is an ice issue all bets are off.  Any impacts of ice would be locally and not really impact the "grid" everywhere in the state.  Here is the latest from the Euro leading up to Christmas Day.

cold.gif.673d4fb01adcebe66e6a5397ff90711

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28 minutes ago, Hate said:

From what I understand, the grid is ready and we shouldn't have the issues like we did last time.  Now, if there is an ice issue all bets are off.  Any impacts of ice would be locally and not really impact the "grid" everywhere in the state.  Here is the latest from the Euro leading up to Christmas Day.

cold.gif.673d4fb01adcebe66e6a5397ff90711

@Hate

Dumb question amnesty .

Help me out here. I think I know the answer but those temps on this for central Texas are just degrees below average temp right?

So if the average temp on the 24th is say 40 degrees then that -14 would mean the temp would be 26 right? Or am I missing something.

Thx

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That is correct.  There are also quite a few models showing a coastal low forming after the cold air is in place.  That could result in some heavy snow/ice across portions of Texas.  It's still a long ways out, but it is something to keep an eye on.

file.php?id=19764&mode=view

12ZGFSSNow.JPG

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I only go over to that Storm2k forum a few times per year in advance of potential severe weather events.  Weird fucking bunch of weather nerds over there that for the most part seem to actively root for the worst case scenarios.  So pretty hard to tell the actually likelihood of any of the more extreme scenarios they are discussing.  

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14 minutes ago, Hate said:

That is correct.  There are also quite a few models showing a coastal low forming after the cold air is in place.  That could result in some heavy snow/ice across portions of Texas.  It's still a long ways out, but it is something to keep an eye on.

file.php?id=19764&mode=view

12ZGFSSNow.JPG

Thx

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I only go over to that Storm2k forum a few times per year in advance of potential severe weather events.  Weird fucking bunch of weather nerds over there that for the most part seem to actively root for the worst case scenarios.  So pretty hard to tell the actually likelihood of any of the more extreme scenarios they are discussing.  

You have to take each weather model posted that is over a 4-5 days out as possible outcomes, but not certain.  And even 4-5 days out, the actual details of exactly how everything will play out is speculation.  Whatever happens, it looks like there is a better than zero percent chance of extreme cold for us on the horizon.  If a coastal low forms with all of the cold air in place, even Texas could get a lot of snow.  Houston got 20 inches of snow back in 1895, so there is precedent for extreme winter weather events even this far south.  I lived in SA in January of 1985 when we got 13 inches of snow.  Everything I have read right now seems to indicate the models are forecasting the textbook scenario for winter weather in Texas.  We just have to wait and see now.  There are still even a few models showing 80 degrees on Christmas, but those are in the extreme minority now.

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On 12/11/2022 at 3:17 PM, UTexasFight said:

Who’s available to install a transfer switch on my electric panel this week?

Do you need to be permitted?  If not, I can probably do it. How hard can it be?  Wire nut the black to black and white to white and boom. Done. I gotch u. 

Edited by UT_OB1
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50 minutes ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Yep.  My Sister & BiL (they live in Haslet) were on their way to a final checkup for her baby due next week and got caught up in it.  Damage all over the place that way.  The OB office had lost all power, so they had to head back home.  

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1 hour ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Friend in Keller reported no damage and it passed right over them.  Kids in HS in Frisco had to shelter in place, but just heavy rain.  Now I need this front to do an about face, head west for a few hours, and hover over Coleman for a solid week.  Tanks getting dry.  

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3 hours ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

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Currently close to 80 in Houston, despite 100% cloud cover and high winds. Temps should start dropping later tonight after showers pass through. Tomorrow will be the first day this month without a high 10+ degrees above average. Then some really nice 65/45 and sunny days on tap for Thursday and Friday. 

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