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Cairn Horn88

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20 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Try not to suck any dick on your way to the parking lot.

"I'm not even supposed to BE in court today!" --the judge, having to issue yet another ruling about Trump's social media posts

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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The Latino support data, if accurate, are what should scare Democrats.

I don't disagree but the white vote moving +3% pro D should frighten R's even more, especially as those votes are swinging swing states blue where as the Latino vote will be heavier in FL and TX. Between those two shifts by my rough math, that's around 400k votes in favor of D.

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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:


The other way to look at it, is if a vast majority of that Latino support is from Texas and Florida (cubans and the RGV here in Texas), then it don't make much of a shit. 

Nevada? Arizona?

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Just now, dieucla98 said:

I don't disagree but the white vote moving +3% pro D should frighten R's even more, especially as those votes are swinging swing states blue where as the Latino vote will be heavier in FL and TX. Between those two shifts by my rough math, that's around 400k votes in favor of D.

The problem is that whites are shrinking and latinos are growing, so the gains with whites might not help long term. But I agree with whoever has been saying that the latino losses are mainly a regression to where it should have been all along, especially if you look at their voting habits in the countries they came from, there's a fair amount of social conservatism among all the leading parties and where they differ tends to be on economic policy and whether to be in cahoots with or "tough on" the criminal element, and if so, how they claim to intend to implement those plans. That means, first, Latinos will not vote as monoliths and, second, the longer they have been a part of their community, the less they see themselves as immigrants and the more they adopt the political values of the community they are in at roughly the same rate that you see with white voters. For the RGV, it has been dominated by Ds so the latinos who have been there for generations have no problem voting as Ds. For North Texas, I believe you see some of the opposite going on. If the family is somewhere in Colin County they probably are trending R, but if the family is in a latino enclave they might vote more like folks in RGV.

I'm more interested in how the electorate looks when divided along class lines. It's true that most of Trump's base isn't reflected by trailer trash but rather by the small businessmen who barely make enough to pay their country club dues and feel their social and economic standing is slipping due to immigrants, DEI, and the overall acceptance of previously marginalized communities. The trailer trash is just a windfall byproduct of the racism. But what really drives MAGA is a sense of entitlement.

The Gen X and Millennial MAGA are incredibly upset that they have fallen way short of what their Boomer predecessors had accomplished (were able to buy) at the same points in their lives, and instead of blaming the foreseeable consequences of Reaganomics they are blaming wokeness and the MeToo movement. Really whatever Fox News wants them to be mad at. It's all about grievance with these people. Steve Bannon is a piece of shit, but he was on to something with GamerGate and it has morphed into a broader playbook now that works on way more than people who are disappointed with their body counts.

 

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4 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

In other words, during the old days we were driven to the center by guardrails and now we are driven to the edges by the lack of guardrails.

What is harming is us not necessarily the guardrails or lack thereof.  It's the continued social silo-ing of our population into the college educated and the un-educated.  There is no draft or service requirement, or more importantly, a healthy and vibrant public school system that is giving us exposure to each other and creating a national identify of understanding the "other".

In the old days, we didn't have people openly pushing Russian propaganda with large platforms like we do now with Tucker, Rogan, Fox News as a whole, etc.

If a Tucker Carlson back in 1984 was pushing a pro-Soviet bias, the backlash would have been immense. Now, he shows up in Moscow, sucks Putin off on live TV, and some Republicans love him.

 

3 hours ago, royiv said:

These dimwits are the exact reason why the GQP wants to dismantle the education system in this country.

The GQP (leadership) wants to dismantle the education system because they see profit in pushing kids to private for-profit schools.

 

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3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

 It's all true, we have no shared identity,

And that's by design.  

The last time we had a shared identity was after 9/11 - you had thousands of people killed in New York City, and there were young men and women in the backwoods of Kentucky or East Texas or Appalachia signing up to fight for America, who had nothing in common with the folks in NYC except that Americans had been killed.

Now, if a terrorist attack happened in a liberal city, I'm not so sure that Republicans and certain Republican media outlets wouldn't push a "they are libtards, they had it coming" narrative.

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4 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

I'm curious how much, if any, of his bullshit he actually believes. I wonder what his inner monologue is about this stuff. 

image.png.70ce859c8b08eccfbb976661e8ec1383.png

 

He's a sociopathic narcissist.  He believes he has super powers, is being persecuted and can do no wrong all at the same time.

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6 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

We have an unprecedented ability to get accurate information from various media and non-media sources.  We just have to be vigilant and critical in how we process that information.

The blame lies with the voter.  Not 100%, but so much so that nothing else matters.

That's democracy's fatal flaw.

The left is banking on it working, the right is committed to finding an alternative.

Finding an alternative based on the votes of the dumbest, least-informed voters in the history of evar.

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Finding an alternative based on the votes of the dumbest, least-informed voters in the history of evar.

Counterpoint, voters are more informed than ever, but It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

(side note, beginning of The Big Short uses this quote brilliantly by posting it at the beginning of the movie and then attributing it to Mark Twain, when there is no evidence Twain ever said such a thing) 

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14 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i started to read hamilton's reynold's pamphlet the other day and saw this in the intro.  the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Lies often detected and refuted are still revived and repeated, in the hope that the refutation may have been forgotten or that the frequency and boldness of accusation may supply the place of truth and proof. 

There's also the "backfire effect", where people hold firmer to their beliefs when confronted by facts that refute them. 

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ever since law school, I've read my fair share of jury instructions and oppositions thereof.  But this one, my political biases acknowledged, takes the fucking cake.  

And to get all Qanon here, but yeah---insane Lobo rant.  This is one thing Trump did correct.  He actually did play 4-D chess for a hot minute.  He knew he was going to take them after he lost.  He knew the value of them  and sell them to foreign powers.  He put Judge Cannon into perpetual power in the exact jurisdiction where the documents would eventually be discovered.  And she would cover his ass at all costs.  Stephen Miller telegraphed this elegantly.  It's ugly and horrific for our nation, but it's working.  And as tremendous a job as Jack Smith has done and as smart as he is, he's fallen into the one clever trap that Trump's team has done.  Trump had 100 properties and options to store this stuff.  That he did it where Cannon has jurisdiction, despite her woeful incompetence, is a clever play.  And we're all going to have to live underground because of it.   

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10 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

ever since law school, I've read my fair share of jury instructions and oppositions thereof.  But this one, my political biases acknowledged, takes the fucking cake.  

And to get all Qanon here, but yeah---insane Lobo rant.  This is one thing Trump did correct.  He actually did play 4-D chess for a hot minute.  He knew he was going to take them after he lost.  He knew the value of them  and sell them to foreign powers.  He put Judge Cannon into perpetual power in the exact jurisdiction where the documents would eventually be discovered.  And she would cover his ass at all costs.  Stephen Miller telegraphed this elegantly.  It's ugly and horrific for our nation, but it's working.  And as tremendous a job as Jack Smith has done and as smart as he is, he's fallen into the one clever trap that Trump's team has done.  Trump had 100 properties and options to store this stuff.  That he did it where Cannon has jurisdiction, despite her woeful incompetence, is a clever play.  And we're all going to have to live underground because of it.   

What really boils my oats about all this is the constant insistence by the legal community writ large that we MUST let the fascists have their way with the justice system, "otherwise we are just as bad as they are" or some other backhanded defense of the Byzantine and multi-tiered legal system. 

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10 hours ago, NWBuck said:

There's also the "backfire effect", where people hold firmer to their beliefs when confronted by facts that refute them. 

It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.

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3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

ever since law school, I've read my fair share of jury instructions and oppositions thereof.  But this one, my political biases acknowledged, takes the fucking cake.  

And to get all Qanon here, but yeah---insane Lobo rant.  This is one thing Trump did correct.  He actually did play 4-D chess for a hot minute.  He knew he was going to take them after he lost.  He knew the value of them  and sell them to foreign powers.  He put Judge Cannon into perpetual power in the exact jurisdiction where the documents would eventually be discovered.  And she would cover his ass at all costs.  Stephen Miller telegraphed this elegantly.  It's ugly and horrific for our nation, but it's working.  And as tremendous a job as Jack Smith has done and as smart as he is, he's fallen into the one clever trap that Trump's team has done.  Trump had 100 properties and options to store this stuff.  That he did it where Cannon has jurisdiction, despite her woeful incompetence, is a clever play.  And we're all going to have to live underground because of it.   

except that the (or any) Chief Judge of that (or any) district is the one who makes the judicial assignments...

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11 hours ago, Foosters said:

I suggest everyone read the last couple of pages of that. They formulate a set of jury instructions under Cannon's proposal to show how fucking stupid she is. 

can you just summarize it for us? 🤣

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This has to be fucking Onion article.  Smartest businessman ever sues himself to get more cash to protect himself from other business fraud to avoid more business bankruptcy to help himself get back into office to pardon himself for his own business crimes?  

But our planet is real and not a computer?  Mmkay.  

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4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

So is Jack Smith getting really close to asking that Cannon get the boot in favor of a new judge in this case?

Doubtful.  But he's not going to trial with those jury instructions without rulings from higher courts.

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^ this.  There's no way in the world even a batshit insane pro-MAGA judge would accept Cannon's bullshit.  That's not the issue.  It's a matter of calendars.  These beautiful, gorgeous calendar.  /DamonSNL

The idea is continue to run him ragged so he dies within the next 10 months.  But in the likely result he remains alive, we are left with the cruel possibility that time is winding down on his legal vulnerability.  And we, as a nation, are winding down with it.  

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14 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Doubtful.  But he's not going to trial with those jury instructions without rulings from higher courts.

he's asking her to fix this or he'll have the 11th circuit do it for her - and it will be the third time they've had to correct her on something like this. 

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

he's asking her to fix this or he'll have the 11th circuit do it for her - and it will be the third time they've had to correct her on something like this. 

Correct.  She asked them to submit competing questions.  She's sitting on the issue, wasting time.  He needs to move her off of high-center.  So he's now asking her to make a ruling so that he can have a (presumably) adverse order on which to base his petition for writ of mandamus.  

Edited by dcbc
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15 hours ago, Foosters said:

I suggest everyone read the last couple of pages of that. They formulate a set of jury instructions under Cannon's proposal to show how fucking stupid she is. 

That's good shit.

And, I was unsure of the remedies available to the government upon threatened adoption or bad jury instructions.  But that motion-thing cites authority for mandamus being an appropriate and grantable remedy.

And, although I don't think it's very likely in a general case, this is the kind of thing that might actually get her kicked off the case by the 11th Circuit.  Mandamus is premised on the notion that the trial judge has screwed the pooch, nay, fucked the dog and is going to fuck someone hard in the process.  It invokes the supervisory jurisdiction of the appeals court to correct grievous errors in real time, rather than after trial and judgment.  

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Somebodies bond got rejected...   oppsie!    I guess he has to upload his financials too
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-forced-reveal-his-finances-save-his-properties-1886609
Documents for Donald Trump's $175 million bond in his New York civil fraud case were rejected by a court because a current financial statement was not included.
On Wednesday, a message on the New York State Supreme Court's electronic filing system showed Trump's "Bond/Undertaking" had been "returned for correction."
New York State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled in February against Trump; his two eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump; and others associated with the Trump Organization. They were accused in a lawsuit from New York Attorney General Letitia James of inflating the former president's net worth and the value of his properties to obtain better loan and insurance terms. Trump has denied all accusations.
On Monday, Trump posted a $175 million bond in the case, ensuring that James does not seize any of his assets or bank accounts during his appeal.
Newsweek reached out to Trump representative Steven Cheung by email for comment about the documents rejection.
He had originally been ordered to pay $454 million in damages after Engoron found him and others liable for misleading lenders. An appeals court granted Trump's request last week to lower his bond amount to $175 million after his lawyers argued that it was a "practical impossibility" to fulfill the original penalty.
Criminal defense attorney Jeffrey K. Levine, who represented former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, posted an explanation on X (formerly Twitter) about the court's rejection message. He included New York County Supreme Court document number 1707, which could explain why Trump's bond filing was returned to his lawyers.
According to Levine's post, Trump will need to share recent financial records in order for his bond to be accepted.
BREAKING NEWS:
Court rejected #TrumpBond filing in #TrumpFraudVerdict for several reasons, 1 of which was #Trump failed to upload his "current financial statement" to the Court [looking forward to read].
175 million reasons why 1 mistake should not have been made, much less 3 ! pic.twitter.com/qk7nLskx5F

— Jeffrey K. Levine (@NYadvocateJKL) April 3, 2024
The New York County Supreme Court document he shared read:
"The court has returned the documents listed below for the following reasons: Please include a current financial statement and Power of Attorney. Additionally, please list the name of the Attorney-in-Fact under the signature line on the Undertaking. Please use the 'Refile Document' link for Doc. No. 1707 to resubmit the corrected filing. Thank you and have a great day."
 

So the guy who got convicted of fraudulently overstating his finances is supposed to now all of a sudden post a legit financial statement huh?
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1 minute ago, tbone_ said:


So the guy who got convicted of fraudulently overstating his finances is supposed to now all of a sudden post a legit financial statement huh?

No worries, I'm sure they have GAP ace Don Jr. working on it right now.  Should be a real gem.  

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34 minutes ago, locodos said:

Somebodies bond got rejected...   oppsie!    I guess he has to upload his financials too

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-forced-reveal-his-finances-save-his-properties-1886609

Documents for Donald Trump's $175 million bond in his New York civil fraud case were rejected by a court because a current financial statement was not included.

On Wednesday, a message on the New York State Supreme Court's electronic filing system showed Trump's "Bond/Undertaking" had been "returned for correction."

New York State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled in February against Trump; his two eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump; and others associated with the Trump Organization. They were accused in a lawsuit from New York Attorney General Letitia James of inflating the former president's net worth and the value of his properties to obtain better loan and insurance terms. Trump has denied all accusations.

On Monday, Trump posted a $175 million bond in the case, ensuring that James does not seize any of his assets or bank accounts during his appeal.

Newsweek reached out to Trump representative Steven Cheung by email for comment about the documents rejection.

He had originally been ordered to pay $454 million in damages after Engoron found him and others liable for misleading lenders. An appeals court granted Trump's request last week to lower his bond amount to $175 million after his lawyers argued that it was a "practical impossibility" to fulfill the original penalty.

Criminal defense attorney Jeffrey K. Levine, who represented former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, posted an explanation on X (formerly Twitter) about the court's rejection message. He included New York County Supreme Court document number 1707, which could explain why Trump's bond filing was returned to his lawyers.

According to Levine's post, Trump will need to share recent financial records in order for his bond to be accepted.

BREAKING NEWS:
Court rejected #TrumpBond filing in #TrumpFraudVerdict for several reasons, 1 of which was #Trump failed to upload his "current financial statement" to the Court [looking forward to read].
175 million reasons why 1 mistake should not have been made, much less 3 ! pic.twitter.com/qk7nLskx5F

— Jeffrey K. Levine 🇺🇸 (@NYadvocateJKL) April 3, 2024
The New York County Supreme Court document he shared read:

"The court has returned the documents listed below for the following reasons: Please include a current financial statement and Power of Attorney. Additionally, please list the name of the Attorney-in-Fact under the signature line on the Undertaking. Please use the 'Refile Document' link for Doc. No. 1707 to resubmit the corrected filing. Thank you and have a great day."

 

He’s going to commit fraud on that financial statement isn’t he?

 

can the bond issuer get in trouble for having issued the bond if the financial statement shows that Trump doesn’t have enough equity in the pledged properties to cover the 175 million, or is it simply more financial risk for them?

Edited by Sawbonz
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22 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


So the guy who got convicted of fraudulently overstating his finances is supposed to now all of a sudden post a legit financial statement huh?

IMG_0589.gif.cacd99ddfb30b5e308908ba720bdd02f.gif

“Current financial statement???…which one do you want showing I have how much again..?”

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I don't ever want to compare the late, great John Candy (whom I love) to Donald Trump...but this is pretty close to how I'm sure Trump handled his bond checking account situation: 

 

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55 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

He’s going to commit fraud on that financial statement isn’t he?

 

can the bond issuer get in trouble for having issued the bond if the financial statement shows that Trump doesn’t have enough equity in the pledged properties to cover the 175 million, or is it simply more financial risk for them?

The bond issuer, unlikely.  Their concern is putting up 145M shekels in Trump's name and getting paid when the bond gets disbursed to the plaintiff.  Now, if for some reason or other the bond didn't turn into 145M on disbursement, they might have a problem.

Trump's financial statement is going to need to indicate that he doesn't have 454M in cash or cash-equivalents lying around and support his arguments for reducing the bond, e.g. that liquidating real estate on short notice is hard and a money-loser.

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