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Posted

OK y'all got us this is all pointless and Trump is going to win so we might as well not vote.

Is that what you want?

Because with that narrative that is what you will get. 

 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OK y'all got us this is all pointless and Trump is going to win so we might as well not vote.

Is that what you want?

Because with that narrative that is what you will get. 

 

I believe this people are pointing out that this is the narrative that's being pushed by both the left, and the right. And that's what you'll  get. 

Posted

You know what's fun? Biden +3 likely means another Dotard presidency.

Like if we were to beat Baylor 27-17, and they storm the field and tear down their goalposts after their big "victory". 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

What, pray tell, do our resident bed wetters truly think the GOP is doing that guarantees them a win in November 2024?  

  • With absolutely ridiculously high inflation and Joe Biden hovering around 40% approval in his first midterm, the GOP should have swept Congress and picked up a bunch of governor seats in 2022.  They failed to win the Senate back, BARELY won the House only because they gerrymandered a bunch of states to ensure they won it back, and lost governor races. MASSIVE FAIL OF A MIDTERM
  • They lost all election procedure and counting positions in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania.  Dems hold the Attorney General position in Wisconsin.  
  • SCOTUS struck down the independent legislature theory.  And are forcing southern states to re-do their maps, which should net Dems 2-4 seats alone, not including potentially fair maps in Wisconsin and new maps in New York. 
  • What was Trump's court record on overturning the vote in 2020 when the GOP actually had control over a bunch of swing states? 1-73? 
  • Trump has RICO charges in Georgia and the GOP YET AGAIN lost another Senate race there.
  • The GOP is putting up absolute garbage in key Senate races in AZ, WI, MI, PA, NH - pretty much ensuring they will drag an already unpopular top of the ticket down.  Coupled with massive Republican civil war nationally (McCarthy versus HFC wings), Paxton going whole hog to destroy the Texas House GOP caucus, etc. 
  • Dems have overperformed 95% of special elections in 2023, by a good margin (4-6 points on average)
  • ABORTION IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE DRIVING MILLENIAL, GEN Z, WOMEN AND INDEPENDENTS. Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Ohio, Michigan.  7 for 7 when on the ballot.  
    • Already on the ballot for New York and Maryland in 2024, with measures potentially on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania and South Dakota
  • Virginia legislature elections are in 1.5 months and the Republican governor is screaming for mercy that a GOP TRIGGERED SHUTDOWN is going to decimate them in November. 
  • Michigan GOP is a dumpster fire.  AZ GOP is broke.  WI GOP is attempting to subvert democracy and overturn a double digit SCOWI win, which is already pissing off people. 

I don't see it. 

Make It Happen Makes Sense GIF by WE tv

The reason to be nervous is because the electoral college tilts in the GOP's favor and every presidential election is close. Further, the mainstream media will normalize Trump (again), play up Biden's liabilities, and do everything in their power to manufacture a close race.

But you're right, and that's a huge list of negative factors the GOP hasn't ever really dealt with in a presidential election year before. The state GOP multiple battleground states has very quickly become about as effective a political machine as the Democratic party has been in Texas for the last 30 years. And Trump's trials will not help him with undecided voters (and his defense will also peel a ton of funds away from other candidates). 

Polling this far out is always pretty much worthless, and polls have consistently missed the anti-Dobbs backlash that we've seen in every election since. Worries about Biden's age aren't going to negate that, no matter how much some centrist twits in the media want it to.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Polling this far out is always pretty much worthless

Yet everyone should flip out. You know who isn’t flipping out? Big money Dem donors. Or there’s be 800 stories a day about how they’re not into Biden and trying to woo someone else. 

If even one big Dem mega donor was nervous, it would be front page CNN

Edited by Js1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yet everyone should flip out. You know who isn’t flipping out? Big money Dem donors. Or there’s be 800 stories a day about how they’re not into Biden and trying to woo someone else. 

If even one big Dem mega donor was nervous, it would be front page CNN

Times has an op-ed today talking about how big donor Dems are not opening their wallets atm. Can't source it at the moment, but it should be on the front of the editorial section.

Posted
1 minute ago, safe sex said:

Times has an op-ed today talking about how big donor Dems are not opening their wallets atm. Can't source it at the moment, but it should be on the front of the editorial section.

There is not going to be a shortage of money on either side. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Red Five said:

Dotard using classified documents as post-it notes and flushing them down the toilet and stealing 100 boxes of them just makes me so mad, because it reminds me of how Hillary had emails.

negged for the cycle

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Posted
36 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Times has an op-ed today talking about how big donor Dems are not opening their wallets atm. Can't source it at the moment, but it should be on the front of the editorial section.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/opinion/columnists/progessive-fundraising-downturn.html

Quote

One small, characteristic piece of this problem — and perhaps the easiest part to solve — involves the way Democrats use email. If you’re on any progressive mailing lists, you surely know what I’m talking about: the endless appeals, sometimes in bold all caps, warning of imminent Democratic implosion. (Recent subject lines in my inbox include, “We can kiss our Senate majority goodbye” and “This is not looking good.”)

In the short term, these emails are effective, which is why campaigns use them. Over time, they encourage a mix of cynicism and helplessness — precisely the feelings leading too many people to withdraw from political involvement. “We and others in the field have argued that, long term, it’s disastrous, because you don’t build a trusting base,” said Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party when I asked him about these hair-on-fire missives.

But this is just a symptom of a bigger problem, which is that, right now, progressive politics are necessarily organized around preventing imminent catastrophe rather than offering up a vision of a transformed world. Joe Biden has an impressive legislative record, but because of the counter-majoritarian roadblocks in our system, the case for his re-election is largely about staving off disaster rather than the promise of new accomplishments. “It’s really hard to get people to give money when you do not have a coherent theory of change,” said Berger.

Where there is a prospect of real change, progressives are still getting mobilized. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, “there was a resurgence of both activist energy and donor energy,” said Tory Gavito, the president of Way to Win, a network of progressive donors channeling money to pro-democracy grass-roots groups. “And those things are often correlated.” As she pointed out, Janet Protasiewicz raised “more money than God” in her race for a pivotal Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. In Ohio, organizers fought off a sneaky statewide ballot measure meant to kneecap a campaign to protect reproductive rights. 

 

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Posted
On 9/18/2023 at 12:54 PM, Pig Bellmont said:

Welker is over here just pissing on Tim Russert’s grave. No one was more prepared for an interview or willing to call out BS than him. And he’d have rebuttal clips/graphics at the ready. 
 

Oh and it’s not that there aren’t journalists capable of doing the job, it’s an editorial choice 

My favorite part was when Trump baselessly claimed that electric vehicles will all be made exclusively in China and Welker couldn't be troubled to ask him where besides his ass did he pull that from? 

I'd already given up any hope of her fact checking him, but you can't even gently press him on his bullshit? Horrible interview. 

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Posted
45 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

My favorite part was when Trump baselessly claimed that electric vehicles will all be made exclusively in China and Welker couldn't be troubled to ask him where besides his ass did he pull that from? 

I'd already given up any hope of her fact checking him, but you can't even gently press him on his bullshit? Horrible interview. 

The mere idea of an interview being given to him by any network other than his mouthpieces is absurd. If any interviewer would actually fact-check him on the spot (and many are capable), he wouldn't be able to get past 3 actual statements in 20 minutes. Catching a Trump lie and correcting it in real time is like...

I Love Lucy Chocolate Factory GIF - I Love Lucy Chocolate ...

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Posted
7 hours ago, hpslugga said:

The mere idea of an interview being given to him by any network other than his mouthpieces is absurd. If any interviewer would actually fact-check him on the spot (and many are capable), he wouldn't be able to get past 3 actual statements in 20 minutes. Catching a Trump lie and correcting it in real time is like...

I Love Lucy Chocolate Factory GIF - I Love Lucy Chocolate ...

All networks should just agree to ship in Jonathan Swan as the only journalist who is allowed to do Trump interviews. 

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Posted

Maggie Haberman confirmed ABC's reporting that Trump coached his close aide when she was preparing to be interviewed by the FBI, telling her to tell investigators that she doesn't know "anything about the boxes,” Maggie Haberman adds: "Ms. Michael is one of at least two witnesses who could be called to testify at Mr. Trump’s trial in the documents case and present the jury with evidence that the former president sought in some way to obstruct the government’s investigation."

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Posted

"Your Russian asset is gonna make it to prison all right, Mayor Rudy.  And he's gonna die within sight of it."

-Capt. Davenport, U.S.S. Enterprise, CVN-65

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Posted

I honestly think it would be some form of house arrest. I just don't see the logistics of a former president in lockup regardless of how shitty he's been. I'd love to see him in an orange smock, eating shit on a shingle and taking a dump in an open toilet, but I just don't see how it would work. In fact, if its true he's scared, I'd offer him right now 10 years house arrest (he'll likely be dead by then or a zombie), but he must admit in open court in front of cameras that he lied about everything and that he committed every one of the crimes alleged. It can be at Mar-a-Lago, but a regular room, constantly guarded, and non-negotiable that he cannot speak publicly or by social media at all, just shut the fuck up, for good.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Maybe we should build a prison just for Trump. Put it about five miles out in the middle of the ocean.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Maybe we should build a prison just for Trump. Put it about five miles out in the middle of the ocean.

I hear that Saint Helena has vacancy.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

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I think that there is a possibility that as Trump continues to weigh his odds, that Jack can offer a deal where he pleads guilty specifically to J6 insurrection (and classified documents obstruction charges) in return for no jail time.  Then Trump can’t run again because of the 14th amendment, and that cancer is behind us.   As much as I would love to see that asshole behind bars, his end of the existential threat to democracy by him running and winning again is far more important to me than to have the satisfaction of getting Justice in seeing him behind bars.

Plus, I think pleading guilty and not being able to run would kill him. 

Edit: but that would be smart. And he’s an idiot. So it ain’t gonna happen.

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted

Someone suggested restoring a corner of Alcatraz for the dotard. 

Be mighty fun to point and laugh from a restaurant on the wharf 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I think that there is a possibility that as Trump continues to weigh his odds, that Jack can offer a deal where he pleads guilty specifically to J6 insurrection (and classified documents obstruction charges) in return for no jail time.  Then Trump can’t run again because of the 14th amendment, and that cancer is behind us.   As much as I would love to see that asshole behind bars, his end of the existential threat to democracy by him running and winning again is far more important to me than to have the satisfaction of getting Justice in seeing him behind bars.

Plus, I think pleading guilty and not being able to run would kill him. 

Edit: but that would be smart. And he’s an idiot. So it ain’t gonna happen.

If Trump ever signed a deal like that, he would eventually just ignore it. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

If Trump ever signed a deal like that, he would eventually just ignore it. 

Probation and parole office says, “hey” 

The other attractive part of any plea deal is that he would in fact violate his terms. You are correct. 

Posted

So, here it is.  The most in-depth analysis of the potential immunity "defense" (immunity just is not a defense) that I have yet seen.  https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-trump-defense-part-ii-the-presidential-immunity-gambit

It notes that it is a bit of a moonshot, but is as most of these have been, a question of first impression, practically guaranteeing Supreme Court review.  Most depressingly, it accurately notes that while interlocutory appeals in criminal cases are mostly not permitted, there is an exception for immunity.  Because in most cases, immunity not only means the defendant is not liable for the offense (without regard to guilt, see, e.g. TTU v. Leach), but that s/he need not stand trial for it either.

Posted
48 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I think that there is a possibility that as Trump continues to weigh his odds, that Jack can offer a deal where he pleads guilty specifically to J6 insurrection (and classified documents obstruction charges) in return for no jail time.  Then Trump can’t run again because of the 14th amendment, and that cancer is behind us.   As much as I would love to see that asshole behind bars, his end of the existential threat to democracy by him running and winning again is far more important to me than to have the satisfaction of getting Justice in seeing him behind bars.

Plus, I think pleading guilty and not being able to run would kill him. 

Edit: but that would be smart. And he’s an idiot. So it ain’t gonna happen.

*idoit

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Posted
2 hours ago, safe sex said:

I'm fine with house arrest

Fuck [dramatic pause] that.

Nothing that can be construed as a slap on the wrist because the case wasn't very strong.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Probation and parole office says, “hey” 

The other attractive part of any plea deal is that he would in fact violate his terms. You are correct. 

He’d find some way to delay being held accountable for ignoring the plea deal 

Posted
2 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

He’d find some way to delay being held accountable for ignoring the plea deal 

Jesus Christ, he’s not Kaiser Soze.  if he was, he wouldn’t have almost 100 indictment counts and be asking if he has to wear a jumpsuit in prison.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck [dramatic pause] that.

Nothing that can be construed as a slap on the wrist because the case wasn't very strong.

I am also fine with an awful federal prison

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Posted

Odd thing about federal prison sentences.  The judge determines the number of years, years of community supervision, etc., but has no role in determining how or where the defendant serves that sentence.

The Federal Bureau of Prisons has that mandate.  And, home confinement is considered in the custody of BOP statutorily and otherwise legally.  Some may recall the prisoner petitions to be released from confinement during COVID to avoid contracting it and potentially dying or having severe health consequences.  There was some statutory authorization for that under the CARES Act that permitted the prisoners to make those petitions.  But one of the things that came out of it was clarity on the point that home confinement, where those prisoners were "released to," is legally still incarcerated by BOP, so the judges were not actually shortening their sentences (which they were not authorized to do).

Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I think that there is a possibility that as Trump continues to weigh his odds, that Jack can offer a deal where he pleads guilty specifically to J6 insurrection (and classified documents obstruction charges) in return for no jail time.  Then Trump can’t run again because of the 14th amendment, and that cancer is behind us.   As much as I would love to see that asshole behind bars, his end of the existential threat to democracy by him running and winning again is far more important to me than to have the satisfaction of getting Justice in seeing him behind bars.

Plus, I think pleading guilty and not being able to run would kill him. 

Edit: but that would be smart. And he’s an idiot. So it ain’t gonna happen.

Also do not want. 

I want him to have real jail time on his hands and get his ass beat down in the election. It's the only way to start healing.

You think the nutjobs are incensed now; wait until "the silent majority" gets their preferred candidate legally removed from running by the "corrupt Dems who knew they couldn't cheat enough to beat him again."

They'll never admit to being duped, regardless, and they'll never shut up...but a blunt reminder that they're the minority in this country might at least push them back to their shanties and dark corners of the Internet.

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