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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
10 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Fox News. That's it. That's the answer.

No.  Fox is giving those people what they already want.  They’d get it somewhere else if not Fox.  Us normal people see that and say wtf.  
Others have it deep inside of them to see that shit and it hits their limbic system like a shot of heroin right into your dick veins.  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

Dude, that is not the preferred nomenclature.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted

I will vote for Biden any day over Trump but it's not too late for Biden to drop out. And for a new candidate to beat Trump.

Biden has now proven that he is not a good candidate and it puts in question his ability to lead. Even if he wins in November, I don't think he should remain President. Biden is a good person and I can feel for him that he's diminished now and it must be tough to accept that, but being President isn't about his feelings.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

Clyburn is older than Biden. Clyburn will be 84 in 9 days.  olds gotta stick together.

but he left the door open for a change:

Quote

But he didn't completely close the door on Biden standing aside. He added that if the president "decides to change his mind later on, then we will respond to that. We have until the 19th of August to open our convention." Clyburn also expressed full confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/12/congress/clyburns-00167781

Edited by Jive Turkey
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Posted

After Biden's debate performance, the Presidential race is unchanged:

Quote

The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

Almost two-thirds of Americans think Biden doesn't have the mental fitness to serve as president

But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.

Which is more concerning in a president?

A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).

Divided opinions on the character of the major-party presidential candidates

Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.

A race likely to be decided on the margins

Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.

Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.

That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote

When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April. Professor Cornel West, running as an independent, got 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%.

A significant area of concern for Biden is younger voters. Biden drops 13 points with Gen Z/Millennials when third-party candidates are factored in.

In fact, 1 in 5 Gen Z/Millennials choose a third-party candidate when the option is offered, higher than any other age group. But they are the least-likely age group to say they are definitely going to vote.

Biden is actually being buoyed by high-propensity voters. That’s a change from past election cycles when low-turnout elections were thought to favor Republicans.

Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%, with the voters who say they are definitely voting. But Biden is doing better with older votes and white voters with college degrees than he did in 2020. Traditionally, those are two groups that have had among the highest participation rates of any voting blocs.

Biden’s approval rating overall is 43%, but it jumps to 47% with those who say they are definitely voting.

If not Biden, who else?

This question may be at the heart of why even more Democratic officials have not called for Biden to step aside.

At this point, no other Democrat tested does better and all are statistically tied with Trump, too.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom mirrors Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. And Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are at 49% to 49%.

If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were ...

So there is no clear Democratic alternative, though, as Democrats who have called for Biden to step aside would argue, those candidates could all make the case more coherently for themselves and the party.

Pollsters also expect that Trump will likely get a bounce from the Republican convention, as is the case traditionally in the days and weeks following a convention. That may set off yet another round of Democratic concerns and calls for Biden to step aside in the month until the Democrats’ convention in Chicago in August.

 

Posted

theory: it is already decided that biden is going to drop out, but they've identified a future date to do it because at that time it'd be too late to do anything other than just pass the torch to harris.  they want that to avoid a nasty fight that will make the party overall a loser.

 

evidence: none.

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 i mean, maybe.  we marvel at right wingers only doubling and tripling down the worse trump acts.  this might be the democrat equivalent.

Posted
1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

Yeah, the 84 year-old is all in

Posted

I think Newsom would get smoked this fall. 
CA guy with minimal national exposure that will be portrayed as career politician/hollywood shill. Also for him to displace Harris would be huge slap in face to people of color and women. 
 

This would be huge misstep if he were to be put forth. 
 

I would do Whitmer this fall (If Harris weren’t choice) as at least she won in a swing state. 

Posted

Ok, let's discuss how we can win with Joe with a few attempts at currently true statements. 

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory. While polling is an imperfect science - especially nowadays - I think it's fair to assume Biden is losing right now. 

2. Trump, the GOP, and right wing media want Biden to stay in the race. Every comment from them since the debate supports that. 

3. Trump will not debate Biden again. Debates used to not matter that much, but the last debate has proven to be a massive turning point in the narrative of this race. Joe will not get the opportunity to have a better and victorious performance vs. Trump. 

4. Fundraising has taken a significant hit since the debate with donors holding back their money.

 

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think Newsom would get smoked this fall. 
CA guy with minimal national exposure that will be portrayed as career politician/hollywood shill. Also for him to displace Harris would be huge slap in face to people of color and women. 
 

This would be huge misstep if he were to be put forth. 
 

I would do Whitmer this fall (If Harris weren’t choice) as at least she won in a swing state. 

agree on all points, but almost also think it has to be harris or no go at all.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

Time Machine.  Yes.

Posted

Hilariously wrong names aside, there was a huge difference between Last Night Biden, and Debate Biden. Last night Biden was a lot closer to the 2020 version. He evidently does have good and bad days, and if he stays in he cannot have any more bad days. Sigh.

What a pickle.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory.

You might be putting too fine a point on this.  Biden had a 4.5% lead in the popular vote last time around and won the EC by 74.  On the other hand, Hillary had a 2.1% advantage in the popular vote and lost the EC by 77.  I don't know where the tipping point is -- swing states obviously dominate -- but if we eyeball it I would say it might be Dem +3.3%.  I guess it's close to your numbers but I think there is a lot of fuzz there.  And, as you and I have both said, I don't think the polls mean much in terms of predictive value of the popular vote.

Posted
1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 


I mean Clyburn is a big Kamala fan as well and has said he’d support her too if she were the nominee. I wouldn’t read too much into this.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Ok, let's discuss how we can win with Joe with a few attempts at currently true statements. 

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory. While polling is an imperfect science - especially nowadays - I think it's fair to assume Biden is losing right now. 

2. Trump, the GOP, and right wing media want Biden to stay in the race. Every comment from them since the debate supports that. 

3. Trump will not debate Biden again. Debates used to not matter that much, but the last debate has proven to be a massive turning point in the narrative of this race. Joe will not get the opportunity to have a better and victorious performance vs. Trump. 

4. Fundraising has taken a significant hit since the debate with donors holding back their money.

 

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

There’s never an accurate poll Of Nevada. It’s too hard to poll

Posted

image.png.9f17756a177f59c6e8157f5ec3b9ce77.png
 

Give trump Georgia’s 16 EV and NE 1. Even if WI goes trump with Harris, I believe she keeps all the other states Biden won last time. 
 

I really don’t think Biden will do so. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no one wants to read posts from people that pluralize data.

 

I bet you say “just between you and I”

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

In light of the Chevron ruling, do you REALLY think the supremes will let Biden accomplish anything through his agencies? I feel it's more likely that alito and thomas lean even harder into obstructionism to sling shit at the (D) administration 

I know I'm a real sicko pervert because there is a part of me that really wants to see how fucking insane a President Harris would drive the Alitos.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

7B6n7.png

I think Harris has the best chance to keep AZ and Nevada  

And I think Joe loses WI and / or PA

 

Edited by Sawbonz
Posted
1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

Bro, It's 6th Street.  He is the cunt

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Posted
8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

Like him or not Nate Silver seems to have the most data right now. 

image.thumb.png.eda9045f08e9b216637d38c22b2877ca.png

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

lol. it's not about liking him or not, Nate Silver has been staggeringly wrong for a while now

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

An aggregate of polls is different than cherry picking a single poll

 

But the aggregate isn’t necessarily better if the individual polls are trash 

Posted

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

theory: it is already decided that biden is going to drop out, but they've identified a future date to do it because at that time it'd be too late to do anything other than just pass the torch to harris.  they want that to avoid a nasty fight that will make the party overall a loser.

I don't think this is a terrible hypothesis.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

The two most hated candidates in history ran in 2016 and all of the third-party candidates barely hit 5% combined.  Sorry, I don't see Kennedy doubling that number.  It's always so "cool" to say you're voting third party in July, but then it's November and you have to make a real decision. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

The only way for Biden to win is for RFK to drop out

The way for Biden to win is to hammer Trump on Project 2025 and to repeatedly point out that RFK is a rapist who ate a dog. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

i think this is a unique year for double haters, plus the attractiveness of the kennedy name with 100% recognizability for the population.  it'll be high.

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Posted

I've noticed the new talking point among Rs right now is "LOL project 2025 doesn't exist"... "you're making this up"... "QAnon for Lefties"

I show them the link, make it clear no one is hiding it and... yup, they ignore it.  



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