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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
13 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

The fact that these polls aren't way more lopsided is absurd. People flat aren't listening to anything he is saying and are just on a team. The guy is a blathering dangerous idiot. This country needs a hard reset and I have no idea how that is even possible at this point. Some of the shit I hear people quote out in the wild as truth makes so little sense and is EASILY proven false. It just gives me little hope that anyone on one team gives two shits about this country. I take weeks off from the media for my sanity and just exist in the world. Then I step back in and see what crazy shit happened. Oh boy, it is wild to see how transparently bullshit of a world we live in.

If more people would step away from socials, mainstream, cook bullshit and just exist, it would possibly solve some issues. We don't all have to be so gd wound up all the time. I am guilty as hell of it too. I dont have socials, but i haven't opened CR for awhile just to stay sane. Just have to unplug some and reset.

 

The polls aren't more lopsided because of idiotic and uncritical reactionary centrists that will always be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. See: anastasis 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Genuinely believe you will be able to accurately forecast the election in 24 hours. Anything other than a clear win for Kamala tonight will set in motion the path for another Trump victory. The good thing is I think she has it in her, but she can’t let Trump turn it into another “are these really the two best options we have?” event.

It's a stain on our populace that you're correct.  The fact that Harris isn't up 10 points in this election, is a fucking embarrassment.  I work for a British firm and I'm ashamed every time our politics come up (I'm in EHS software so regulations and politics are part of it).  Half of our voting public are scumbags. 

I hope Harris wins, But if she doesn't, I'll be pulling for the complete collapse of our government.  It's what we deserve.  Hopefully, we can avoid Nazi Germany's fate. 

Edited by DigglerontheHoof
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Posted
Genuinely believe you will be able to accurately forecast the election in 24 hours. Anything other than a clear win for Kamala tonight will set in motion the path for another Trump victory. The good thing is I think she has it in her, but she can’t let Trump turn it into another “are these really the two best options we have?” event.

She has to be perfect. Meanwhile, Trump can blather on about whatever nonsense he wants and can tell 100 lies and it won’t matter.
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The polls aren't more lopsided because of idiotic and uncritical reactionary centrists that will always be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. See: anastasis 

Let's go look at the polls in mid-September the last few cycles (via RCP) - the leader at this point (except 2008, different circumstances) won the popular vote.  Obviously 2016, Clinton did not win the EC.  

They actually weren't too far off for the winner's final total, except for 2008 (Lehman Bros collapse) and 2012 (Obama ended up almost 3 full points better than his polling at this point).  2016 is also an anomaly (Clinton finished almost 3 points better than her total, but they were both so hated and were both polling pretty awfully) 

2024 - Harris 48.4, Trump 47.3 (538 has it Harris 47.2, Trump 44.4) 
2020 - Biden 50.5, Trump 43 (Biden 51.3, Trump 46.9) 
2016 - Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.9 (Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.1) 
2012 - Obama 48.3, Biden Romney 45.4 (Obama 51.1, Romney 47.2) 
2008 - McCain 47.4, Obama 45.2 (Obama 52.9, McCain 45.7) 
2004 - Bush 49, Kerry 43.2 (Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3) 

Everyone whines and cries about the "silent Trump vote," which is not a thing in 2024.  Obama underpolled his final support in both 2008 and 2012 - why not a silent Harris vote (i.e., young voters and voters of color who don't get represented well in polling) 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
17 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

hope Harris wins, But if she doesn't, I'll be pulling for the complete collapse of our government.  It's what we deserve.  Hopefully, we can avoid Nazi Germany's fate. 

If our country ends up blown to pieces, maybe at least we will get a good national commuter rail line in the rebuild.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If our country ends up blown to pieces, maybe at least we will get a good national commuter rail line in the rebuild.  

Depends who is writing Constitution 2.0. If they win out and write it, everyone is going to be given an F-350 to drive. No bike lanes, no EVs, just gas guzzlers for life 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If our country ends up blown to pieces, maybe at least we will get a good national commuter rail line in the rebuild.  

brought to you by Carl's Jr.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Depends who is writing Constitution 2.0. If they win out and write it, everyone is going to be given an F-350 to drive. No bike lanes, no EVs, just gas guzzlers for life 

Fuck it. Let's just do it. How much do I really care about my unborn great grandkids?

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Posted
55 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I'm lame. And I wish I was away wrong.

To be honest, US history is really pretty shitty if you're not white.  Its pretty factual based on slavery, Native American extermination, eradication of the buffalo (to subdue the Native Americans), Jim Crow, etc etc.  Lots of bad history.   Some people want us to pretend it never happened.  Shoot... I just saw a documentary on the endangered ocelots of Texas and they shoed how the government funded wholesale slaughter of jaguars, pumas, wolves, etc in Texas.  Had no idea we once had jaguars in Texas.  Well, we killed every single one.  At least there are more people today looking to learn from our mistakes and make some decisions to not repeat history.  Are they the majority?  Maybe.  Hopefully those people can vote to bring Harris over the line.    

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Depends who is writing Constitution 2.0. If they win out and write it, everyone is going to be given an F-350 to drive. No bike lanes, no EVs, just gas guzzlers for life 

No bike lanes you say? Do I still have to listen to clickity clack of bikers shoes walking in my cafe where their sweaty asses in spandex really need to have that large coffee and speak loudly of the new crank on their bike?

 

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Posted
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think a lot of the polls are as favorable to Trump as they are being made out to be.  Look at the Trumpkins in your life - if they are anything like the ones in my life, they are not that enthusiastic for him these days, unlike in 2016 and especially in 2020.

I'm still not seeing a lot of Trump signs, flags, and bumper stickers from 2024 either. They aren't going to vote for Harris, but I think a lot of them won't bother showing up at all, and it's not helped by the fact that as we speak, he is promoting the idea that it will be stolen from him, which can further depress turnout ("they stole it in 2020 and he's says they are stealing it again, why bother voting?").  

We can argue whether he actually believes that the election will be stolen or is just grifting off of it, but I think that he's recently been shown internal numbers that show he is going to lose bigly and so he's ramped up his rhetoric about the election being stolen and him arresting people who steal the election (hint: If the election is stolen, he won't be in office to arrest anybody, even if he could).

 

 I got home from the game late last night. Girlfriend is a UM grad and grew up in rural Michigan about 45 minutes NE of Lansing. We spent a couple extra days on the trip so she could visit some family and such. Man, rural and small town Michigan is more enthusiastically MAGA than any place I've ever been. Tons of MAGA flags and Trump Vance campaign signs in every yard.  We met a couple of her cousins for dinner Friday night in the slightly larger town next to where she grew up and their entire "town square" area looked like the 4th of July, except the flags were all Trump and FJB flags. If you just glanced at it, it looked like "Patriotic Small Town USA"...but it was 100% MAGA

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Let's go look at the polls in mid-September the last few cycles (via RCP) - the leader at this point (except 2008, different circumstances) won the popular vote.  Obviously 2016, Clinton did not win the EC.  

They actually weren't too far off for the winner's final total, except for 2008 (Lehman Bros collapse) and 2012 (Obama ended up almost 3 full points better than his polling at this point).  2016 is also an anomaly (Clinton finished almost 3 points better than her total, but they were both so hated and were both polling pretty awfully) 

2024 - Harris 48.4, Trump 47.3 (538 has it Harris 47.2, Trump 44.4) 
2020 - Biden 50.5, Trump 43 (Biden 51.3, Trump 46.9) 
2016 - Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.9 (Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.1) 
2012 - Obama 48.3, Biden Romney 45.4 (Obama 51.1, Romney 47.2) 
2008 - McCain 47.4, Obama 45.2 (Obama 52.9, McCain 45.7) 
2004 - Bush 49, Kerry 43.2 (Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3) 

Everyone whines and cries about the "silent Trump vote," which is not a thing in 2024.  Obama underpolled his final support in both 2008 and 2012 - why not a silent Harris vote (i.e., young voters and voters of color who don't get represented well in polling) 

I’ve wondered about this.  For one thing, if a rural/suburban wife in a swing/red state wants to vote Kamala, you know she’s “silent” otherwise her hubbie will beat that ass.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’ve wondered about this.  For one thing, if a rural/suburban wife in a swing/red state wants to vote Kamala, you know she’s “silent” otherwise her hubbie will beat that ass.

Some are silent and others drink the koolaid as a coping mechanism. I've lost count of the number of normal/fun/cool women from high school and college who got married, had kids, and turned into frothing-at-the-mouth Facebook MAGATs who live in Lakeway

Edited by chainsaw
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Posted
2 hours ago, locodos said:

After careful consideration and quiet contemplation, I've come to the realization, that in almost every scenario, I'd prefer a Hattian cat dish to Cincinnati Chili.  

200w.gif?cid=6c09b9526bicfih3kjyib6sppkf

Posted
2 hours ago, locodos said:

After careful consideration and quiet contemplation, I've come to the realization, that in almost every scenario, I'd prefer a Hattian cat dish to Cincinnati Chili.  

As of yesterday I can confirm this is correct. 

28 minutes ago, texasdago said:

To be honest, US history is really pretty shitty if you're not white.  Its pretty factual based on slavery, Native American extermination, eradication of the buffalo (to subdue the Native Americans), Jim Crow, etc etc.  Lots of bad history.   Some people want us to pretend it never happened.  Shoot... I just saw a documentary on the endangered ocelots of Texas and they shoed how the government funded wholesale slaughter of jaguars, pumas, wolves, etc in Texas.  Had no idea we once had jaguars in Texas.  Well, we killed every single one.  At least there are more people today looking to learn from our mistakes and make some decisions to not repeat history.  Are they the majority?  Maybe.  Hopefully those people can vote to bring Harris over the line.    

The one thing driving from Michigan through Ohio and Kentucky has gotten me is perspective on this. White people are certainly living terribly in those states. Its wild how obviously shitty everything is in Ohio Kentucky and Tennessee doso far. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 I got home from the game late last night. Girlfriend is a UM grad and grew up in rural Michigan about 45 minutes NE of Lansing. We spent a couple extra days on the trip so she could visit some family and such. Man, rural and small town Michigan is more enthusiastically MAGA than any place I've ever been. Tons of MAGA flags and Trump Vance campaign signs in every yard.  We met a couple of her cousins for dinner Friday night in the slightly larger town next to where she grew up and their entire "town square" area looked like the 4th of July, except the flags were all Trump and FJB flags. If you just glanced at it, it looked like "Patriotic Small Town USA"...but it was 100% MAGA

Uh they tried to kidnap and murder Big Gretchen. Michigan MAGA is quite a different breed 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, immamac said:

As of yesterday I can confirm this is correct. 

The one thing driving from Michigan through Ohio and Kentucky has gotten me is perspective on this. White people are certainly living terribly in those states. Its wild how obviously shitty everything is in Ohio Kentucky and Tennessee doso far. 

Drive from Austin through Texas... you drive through one dump after another. Towns that are falling apart and in terrible shape and yet they keep voting for the same R leadership over and over again.  Drive through places like Santa Anna (which has potential based on the scenic location, in my dumb opinion) and its falling apart but by God, Trump signs a plenty.  What is someone like Donald doing for them?  Nothing.  And yet Coleman county was 88% for Trump in 2020.  Same for state leadership.  

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Posted
Mooch turns face.
 

Didn’t this guy last like 5 min in the cabinet?

I know most normal capable people that the orange cunt hired have turned on him. But is this guy one of them? Or is he a true wack job too?
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Posted
3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Drive from Austin through Texas... you drive through one dump after another. Towns that are falling apart and in terrible shape and yet they keep voting for the same R leadership over and over again.  Drive through places like Santa Anna (which has potential based on the scenic location, in my dumb opinion) and its falling apart but by God, Trump signs a plenty.  What is someone like Donald doing for them?  Nothing.  And yet Coleman county was 88% for Trump in 2020.  Same for state leadership.  

America outside of cities has mostly failed. It's wild. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Superhero said:

When the orange dipshit lies, instead of debunking him with the truth, I hope she just says "You're lying, AGAIN" and move on because there's not enough time in the world to debunk all of his lies.

aintnobodygottimeforthat.jpg.bed83bfd2a518d2995bce1ad004297ea.jpg

 

 

All of you are way overcomplicating this.  When dotard steps over the line, she needs to walk over to his podium and slap the living shit out of him.  That's it, nothing less / nothing more.

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Posted
All of you are way overcomplicating this.  When dotard steps over the line, she needs to walk over to his podium and slap the living shit out of him.  That's it, nothing less / nothing more.

giphy.gif
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Posted

Debates are not actually debates. They're more like stock shows. Whoever looks most presidential wins. Literally nothing else matters. Least of all, the facts.

The last debate was mostly a "No Contest" but because Biden's underperformance dominated the news cycles, people forgot that Trump also looked incredibly unpresidential.

Harris needs to look and act presidential. That means answering the question that was asked. Don't bore people with too many details or numbers (whoever prepped Biden to do that should be fired and never work again). Get a jab or two in, but do it presidentially. If Trump lies, don't give it air by pointing it out or trying to debunk it. Let your surrogates handle that on TV afterwards.

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Posted

They call it democracy.

I've been doing my meditation and mindfulness stuff lately, and you have to accept that people are just going to vote against your interest and their interest for the craziest and depressing reasons.   

The problem is American politics is not all based on "reactions".  I know this is going to sound way off point, but I there was one particular World Cup where "watch party" reactions to Landon Donovan's goal all went viral.  I remember thinking - who the fuck cares?  Quit panning back to all these fat fucks jumping for joy and just show the goal.  

We've become a nation of people for some strange reason who are obsessed with the reaction and opinion of the rabble to things that actually happen.  We don't have time to correctly analyze the underlying policy or incident because all our time is spent on caring what dumb shit MAGA people do, or what radical progressives do.   

Until people are starving, they are going to keep doing stupid stuff.  And when they are starving, they are going to do especially stupid stuff. 

I don't know, I'm talking out of my ass, but I think it's a waste of time to worry about how others will vote or how stupid they are.   I'm going to try not to add to that pile of useless criticism. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Debates are not actually debates. They're more like stock shows. Whoever looks most presidential wins. Literally nothing else matters. Least of all, the facts.

The last debate was mostly a "No Contest" but because Biden's underperformance dominated the news cycles, people forgot that Trump also looked incredibly unpresidential.

Harris needs to look and act presidential. That means answering the question that was asked. Don't bore people with too many details or numbers (whoever prepped Biden to do that should be fired and never work again). Get a jab or two in, but do it presidentially. If Trump lies, don't give it air by pointing it out or trying to debunk it. Let your surrogates handle that on TV afterwards.

I would have agreed until Trump. To the MAGA crowd what does looking Presidential mean? He says what they want to hear. He was on TV (which we for some stupid reason glorify), etc.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Debates are not actually debates. They're more like stock shows. Whoever looks most presidential wins. Literally nothing else matters. Least of all, the facts.

The last debate was mostly a "No Contest" but because Biden's underperformance dominated the news cycles, people forgot that Trump also looked incredibly unpresidential.

Harris needs to look and act presidential. That means answering the question that was asked. Don't bore people with too many details or numbers (whoever prepped Biden to do that should be fired and never work again). Get a jab or two in, but do it presidentially. If Trump lies, don't give it air by pointing it out or trying to debunk it. Let your surrogates handle that on TV afterwards.

This.  I've always said this about campaigns in general but debates specifically.  The candidate has to look presidential and an example is that are they believable as a CEO or senior executive at a major company.  Trump does not look like a CEO at all, which is why he's not popular with white collar types who realize he's a fucking buffoon.  Blue collar or rural types think all exec's look like that and they don't.  Harris looks the part.  Biden was too old.  Hillary looked the part but came with baggage.  Obama looked the part.  McCain didn't.  Mitt looked the part.

A debate won't win the election but it can lose it.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, immamac said:

America outside of cities has mostly failed. It's wild. 

bro what are you talking about? Profits are at all time highs my dude!!! Crack a cold one, it's party time!

style leonardo GIF

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Posted
2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I would have agreed until Trump. To the MAGA crowd what does looking Presidential mean? He says what they want to hear. He was on TV (which we for some stupid reason glorify), etc.

He fits the image of what they think a rich and powerful businessman looks like.  These people are generally rural/exurban and have no idea what an actual CEO or billionaire looks like.  In real life, they're slender, in shape, wear a quarter zip and form fitting jeans and Allbirds.  Women would wear a pant suit or a blazer with jeans and smart shoes.  

We all know this on this board because of our backgrounds but they don't.

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Posted

I think for Kamala it's an audition to people who don't really want to vote for Trump but hear all the dumb shit about how she's a communist or socialist that will force your children to get sex change operations and let your daughters be raped by migrants. She just needs to speak about her platform, answer the questions, and not get baited by his bullshit. She needs to look like a better alternative to the masses who seem to not understand that Trump will be bad for all of us. She needs to project confidence that she can govern. I think a lot of people are fine with a Trump 2nd term because they don't think it will hurt them personally. I also think people are tired of the bullshit Trump vomits out and would prefer to vote for someone who wasn't a piece of shit. The debate means nothing to Trump. He's a known commodity. It means everything to Kamala because it's the final piece she needs to demonstrate to the "undecided" that she should be President. To do that, she can't get down in the muck with a pig. Answer a few of his lies with a fact about what you plan to do. Turn his negative into your positive. This is a job interview. She definitely needs to answer every question as it is asked. That will be completely different from Trump who will just push through with his talking point of bullshit. 

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Posted

Gallup Party ID (with leaners)

Dems 49
GOP 46

Dems +8 from the June poll and GOP -1 - god, June 2024 is going to go down as probably the most demoralized Dems have been since November 2016.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She's not trying to win the MAGA crowd.  She's trying to win the soft Republicans (Haley voters, mostly) and independents. 

She has to look presidential, look younger/more energetic next to Dump, no flubs/gaffes and just make the voters above think "oh...it won't be the end of the world if she wins" 

Agree.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  Their communities are shit, and are getting shittier.  And instead of looking for positive policies that can improve their prospects (yes, including moving to cities), they think "if we really focus on being dicks to hispanics, and super-hate Hatians and accuse them of eating cats, THAT will fix everything!"  It's the dumbest fucking outlook....but it's also human nature, because it is 100% blaming others, and 0% taking responsibility for your own fate and future.

Try to bring in broadband, and economic development?  Ensure that our local schools prepare our kids for higher ed, and make sure they have decent higher ed opportunities?  NAAAAH.  Let's build a wall, and be cruel as fuck to those brown people who live at the edge of our small town in a cluster of mobile homes, all of them working in the meat processing plant that is one of the area's only economic engines (and to be clear, WE sure as shit won't take a job there -- that's hard work, in hard conditions, no thank you)!  That approach will turn this town into a paradise!  I have no idea how, it just will!

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She's not trying to win the MAGA crowd.  She's trying to win the soft Republicans (Haley voters, mostly) and independents. 

She has to look presidential, look younger/more energetic next to Dump, no flubs/gaffes and just make the voters above think "oh...it won't be the end of the world if she wins" 

So much this.  As long as the tiny sliver of the electorate that can't make up it's mind in a normal fashion comes away from the debate saying "I can live with her" she'll have won. The failure to do that is what sunk Hilary, particularily because a slice of the electorate decided to YOLO Trump before all of his awful Trumpiness was on full display.   If she can manage to turn that "I can live with this" into "I like this lady!"  then she can actually put a landslide on the table. 

The ugly truth for democrats is they haven't run an actually likeable entity since Obama (and I'd argue the 2008 version, not the 2012).  Joe was old and on fumes by 2020.  But you gotta go back to 1996 to find a candidate that made America say "This guy fucks!"  (Literally and rhetorically). 

 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I would have agreed until Trump. To the MAGA crowd what does looking Presidential mean? He says what they want to hear. He was on TV (which we for some stupid reason glorify), etc.

MAGA crowd doesn't care about "winning" debates. They just want racism and cruelty. Hillary won every debate but lost the election for about five or six reasons.

  1. The cumulative effect of decades of right-wing lies and unhinged narratives
  2. The timing of the Comey letter against the backdrop of those lies and narratives
  3. The incompetency of her campaign allowing the Blue Wall (WI, MI, PA) to collapse by ignoring it on the trail
  4. The novelty of Trump and his populist vision
  5. A naive electorate after eight smooth years of Obama that couldn't understand how bad things could possibly get (a mismanaged pandemic with daily death rates exceeding that of 9/11, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, intentional family separations, the assassination of an Iranian General for absolutely no reason, January 6th, etc.)
  6. An antidemocratic system where the popular vote winner does not become president that was established in order to appease slavers in the 1780s

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

Sounds like Ohio. 

Brain drain is real

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WSJ had a great story some time back about the demographic collapse in the state of West Virginia, due to everyone moving away, low birth rate, and no one moving there.  The state is all olds at this point to the point they can't keep some businesses open five days a week because they don't have young workers.

However, their state ledge was obsessed with immigration at the border.  No ideas about how to get people to move to WV but just keep certain people out.  Meanwhile, the local restaurants can't stay open for dinner anymore.

Sign me up for a complete collapse of WV and a clean slate. It's one of the most beatiful places in the US. Let these people die and lets repopulate it normal people looking for cheap, beautiful land. Becuase many of the best places in the US are either red AF or super fucking expensive already. 

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Posted
MAGA crowd doesn't care about "winning" debates. They just want racism and cruelty. Hillary won every debate but lost the election for about five or six reasons.
  1. The cumulative effect of decades of right-wing lies and unhinged narratives
  2. The timing of the Comey letter against the backdrop of those lies and narratives
  3. The incompetency of her campaign allowing the Blue Wall (WI, MI, PA) to collapse by ignoring it on the trail
  4. The novelty of Trump and his populist vision
  5. A naive electorate after eight smooth years of Obama that couldn't understand how bad things could possibly get (a mismanaged pandemic with daily death rates exceeding that of 9/11, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, intentional family separations, the assassination of an Iranian General for absolutely no reason, January 6th, etc.)
  6. An antidemocratic system where the popular vote winner does not become president that was established in order to appease slavers in the 1780s
 

Aside from the Comey letter, I’d argue his “you’d be in jail” comment to Hillary during one of the debates was the single biggest moment in the 2016 election cycle.
It tickled the same emotions as a walk off home run for any person who had spent the last few decades being told to hate Hillary. Luckily I don’t think he’s sharp enough to replicate that this go-round.


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