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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

thanks for sharing but you're shaking my belief that Americans are good. While wrong, I can somewhat understand why southerners could cheer on the South in a civil war reenactment but people in WA? 

When I did grad school in Berkeley I went out to the Sierra Nevada or Trinity Alps on the weekends. Tons of confederate flags. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I agree.  I will be sitting down with my 16 year old this year to review my ballot, research candidates and measures I’m not familiar with and fill it out so he’s familiar with the process of how to not just be a voter, but how to be an informed voter.

Or as some would characterize such citizens: a threat.

The two of you should each pop open a cold beer and enjoy it while doing this to make it an especially memorable father son experience.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Like I said, the rank and file really hated Kamala.  Trump got 59% in their last poll of the members.  

I mean, he will probably post some AI endorsement someone makes for him, but them declining to endorse against what their rank and file wanted is good.

But that dude sucks butt either way. 

https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-release-presidential-endorsement-polling-data/

Quote

From April 9-July 3, nearly 300 Teamsters local unions nationwide conducted first-of-their-kind Presidential town halls, soliciting endorsement preferences from members via straw polls. The in-person voting was held prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race. The Teamsters’ polling data shows members backed Biden 44.3 percent to Trump’s 36.3 percent.

Following the Republican National Convention and Biden’s campaign exit, the Teamsters commissioned a national electronic poll of its 1.3 million members, overseen by an independent third party. During a voting window from July 24-Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris.

Hmm I wonder if Sean O'Brean did something between July 3 and July 24 that could have been consequential among Teamsters....

The world may never know

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Posted
31 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

He’s right on this. You and G650 sound like Chicken Littles. Millions of people will vote by mail with no problems. It’s a good thing. You’re overreacting. 

 

15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not being a pussy. The guy, who if you'd note has changed his narrative slightly with each post, said everyone should RUN DON'T WALK TO VOTE BY MAIL RIGHT NOW. And then he cited election conspiracy fears that the right uses, of which mail in voting doesn't help, it has exacerbated thanks to Trump. I have pointed out that the BEST method is to vote early, in person. Which it is, easily, the best method. But I didn't tell anyone not to vote by mail. I simply pointed out the truth, which is that there is always the potential for more fuckery by mail. And his defense is bascially, "but there hasn't been." Well, I don't wear my seatbelt becaue I expect to be in an accident, but I wear it anyway. 

 

Millions of people will vote by mail, this is true, and some of those ballots will not make it. That is a fact. My point is to take a variable put of the equation. If you are in a mail in state, you can fill at your ballot at your leisure, drop it at the mostconvenient, drop box, and go about your merry way. It couldn't be easier and more secure.

 

 

I know most people have no idea how unreliable the mail has gotten, but we suggest to our subcontractors to pick up their checks instead of having us mail them simply so they know they will arrive. Out of the 100 or so checks that we mail each month, a few never make it.

 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I agree.  I will be sitting down with my 16 year old this year to review my ballot, research candidates and measures I’m not familiar with and fill it out so he’s familiar with the process of how to not just be a voter, but how to be an informed voter.

Or as some would characterize such citizens: a threat.

Apropos of youth voting, I was excited when I turned 18 and got to vote.   Yeah the process of educating yourself is a bit dry, but that mild annoyance was nothing compared to the thrill of legally doing something "The Man" didn't want you to do.  Not only that, they can't stop you!  And they're a bit scared your generation will figure it out.   As a kid growing up in the 70s & 80s I felt it was a very punk thing to do.   Fuck those old establishment clowns.    It took me a few weeks to figure out not many other kids outside of my friend group had thought about it,  never mind shared my enthusiasm.

As the song says...

"They say you're stupid
That you're too young to vote
They say you'll swallow anything
That they shove down your throat
They say you can't think
That you haven't got a brain
That you're just there to listen
That you're just being trained"

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Posted
9 minutes ago, LTbear said:

When I did grad school in Berkeley I went out to the Sierra Nevada or Trinity Alps on the weekends. Tons of confederate flags. 

Confederate flag isn't a symbol of the south or being southern.  Its a it's a racist badge of "honor"   

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Posted
3 minutes ago, locodos said:

Confederate flag isn't a symbol of the south or being southern.  Its a it's a racist badge of "honor"   

Ya, that's what I'm saying my man. There's a shit-ton of racist MAGAts even in Cali. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

They are among us.

Sighted at 290/Keonig and airport.

 

IMG_20240918_110645411_HDR.jpg

Bill Engvoll had a bit for these people.  "Here's your sign"

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Posted
5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OH LOOKIE THERE'S ONE!

image.thumb.png.2df30612309ac6c1f8ae14f453d3c96b.png

It begs the question: why would a Trump appointee charged with maintaining a stable economy favor Harris?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

It begs the question: why would a Trump appointee charged with maintaining a stable economy favor Harris?

If Jackson could liquidate the national bank, then by god Trump can too after he rids us of NATO of course.

Posted
3 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

can anyone not a finance bro give me a 1-2 line summary of why this rate cut is happening now and if it's good/bad and what it's indicative of? wish US economics was on my continuing education list for my license, but sadly it's not.

it's kinda cool after all the iterations of this board over the years I feel comfortable asking this question here. past versions of the cloak room would have seen hyenas pouncing on meat after that question. also loaded with insults. lots and lots of insults.

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

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Posted

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

This is a solid description of the situation. The Republicans complaints about the timing of them is the same disinformation bullshit we always hear today out of the party.  

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Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Teamsters decline to endorse -

what fucking gutless pussies. 

There's an interesting point here with the Teamsters--probably more than any of the other major unions, the Teamsters are impacted by federal regulations that are not directly linked to the NLRA or the RLA.  The Teamsters' membership is disproportionately in the trucking, rail, and airline industries--three industries that are (1) heavily regulated by the federal government and (2) that have seen (and are likely to continue seeing) declines in employee counts from automation.

The teamsters represent a bunch of truckers.  But long-haul truckers are going to find themselves out of work if their employers can switch to autonomous vehicles.  But to do that, they're going to need approval from FHWA.

The teamsters represent a bunch of railway signal workers.  But Norfolk Southern and others are lobbying the FRA to let a lot of that work be automated.

I mean, if the Teamsters think they can strike a deal with Trump on these issues and that Trump will keep his word, maybe that makes sense.

But damn--a Harris administration could make corporate friends and at the same time injure the one union that didn't support her by just making a few tweaks to some regulations that nobody would ever notice.  And is that something you'd want to risk when she's up five points in the polls?

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

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Posted
58 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I think I they where actually happy with where inflation was and the trend to keep rates high. They were worried about softening labor markets and this is essentially a gift to megacorps to not do layoffs and keep on track. 

43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

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Posted
4 hours ago, otisdog said:

Well, kinda....

As my wife and I drove home yesterday from the palouse back to our island on the coast, she asked me why the wheat farmers showed such strong support for trump. After trying to come up with contrasting examples to non-trumpers,  I had to settle  for 'lack of education'.

On another note, our new pup was exceptional on his first pheasant hunting trip. Waaaay beyond my expectations. He was worth the drive to Wisconsin.

 

pictures of pup not loading

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Posted
54 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

As I said…

 

They are making moves to lower interest  rates and correct inflation!

Booo!

They wanted to pass a border bill!

Booo!

They want to protect invitro fertilization!

Booo!

I have sex through the pee pee hole in my pajamas.

Boooo! Huh? Boo!

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Posted
27 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

Wait UPS drivers make 100k, have benefits, fresh air and exercise and sex up lonely wimenz?  My UT career counselor has some explaining to do.

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Posted

To no surprise, Trump says the teamsters endorsed him. Because not endorsing Harris is automatically an endorsement for him 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

Yeah, doing 50 bps and signaling another cut is coming before EOY gets us where we should be.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

To no surprise, Trump says the teamsters endorsed him. Because not endorsing Harris is automatically an endorsement for him 

Seeing a lot of teamsters union chapters endorsing Harris-Walz on Twitter regardless of what Sean o’brian has said nationally. Guy is just salty he didn’t get to speak at the DNC.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

I work among a plethora of Teamsters. They are not the brightest bunch of folks. 

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