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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Just now, locodos said:

This is what I think.  She has a huge financial advantage.  Good to see she's using it.

FL, with abortion and weed on the ballot, is more enticing than Texas.  A little money could get both the ballot items across 60% and get DMP against Scott.  Money is fine, but don't waste time physically in the state when you need to keep going in all the 7 swing states.

It's quite clear she's not dropping money into Texas because there's nothing giving them a real reason - Allred is not running alongside her, he's trying to run independent of her, and there's no competitive House races.  You can't drop money into MT or OH and nationalize those races, Brown and Tester don't want that.  There's way more than enough money for Gallego, Slotkin, Baldwin and Casey.

If I was Harris, I'd drop some money into FL and drop some into NY/CA for House races.  Go ahead and throw a little at Alsobrooks, though she's pulling away now as Maryland is reverting to it's blue status. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, royiv said:

The luxury of having so much more money than your opponent is that you can take a flyer on a couple of states. Florida probably a good high risk/high reward state with an unpopular Rick Scott and abortion on the ballot plus add in a large Haitian community that should be pissed off at Trump and Vance right now.

 

3 minutes ago, locodos said:

This is what I think.  She has a huge financial advantage.  Good to see she's using it.

Yep.  And there's a solid strategic weapon in making your opponent waste some of his precious resources playing defense somewhere where 1) he shouldn't have to otherwise, but 2) he has to play it safe because he's toast if he loses it.

If Florida or Texas go blue in this environment, Trump is absolute toast.  So make him defend his "capital city" so to speak.  Every dollar Trump has to spend in Florida is a dollar he can't spend in AZ or NC etc.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

As far as I've seen, I have the only Harris/Walz sign in my neighborhood, but there are a lot fewer Trump signs compared to 2020.

Signs are starting to appear in our Bluffview (the poor side) neighborhood. Harris/Walz signs outnumber Trump's by a slight number. Our across-the-street neighbor put up Harris/Walz and Colin Allred signs yesterday. He's a big executive at AT&T. I think he waited until after they hosted a huge TCU-SMU watch party (their daughter graduated from TCU) because they've probably got a large number of MAGA friends that might not have liked the signs!

Their immediate next-door neighbor put up a Trump sign last week. She's a high-volume residential real estate agent/broker with Compass or Allie Beth or Briggs -- can't remember which -- who ran for public office this spring and lost in runoff. Their sign was right near the street and I think it was "disturbed" so they moved it closer to the house.

My next door neighbors are mid/late 30's child-less couple who make a ton of money at AT&T. They're awesome and hard-core Dems. In a matter of a week, my wife has gone from "no way we're putting a political yard sign out front" to actually entertaining our next door neighbors and us both putting them out so our street will lean heavy Harris in public support. We'll see how that goes -- probably going to order signs for next door neighbors and us so we have them on hand in case Mrs C-Man orders the "code blue."

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Posted
14 hours ago, Tuco said:

Well, that's cool and all, but how much money did he make for speaking? I'm not talking donations; how much did he add to his personal income? 

CNN

 

I think we just peeled back the curtain on how they are skimming the GOP coffers. Good bet that Trump is doing the same - paying himself for speaking at his "rallies" and calling them "speaking engagements."

13 hours ago, Pancho said:

I choose to believe what Debbie Mucarsel-Powell said just now on the msnbc. I’m going to think positively.

 

Real Housewives Television GIF

 

10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I don't think on the Presidential side it is at all, but I think we got a real chance and knocking off Rick Scott.  

This. She just wants Kamala down there to help her against Scott.

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

👀

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, royiv said:

The luxury of having so much more money than your opponent is that you can take a flyer on a couple of states. Florida probably a good high risk/high reward state with an unpopular Rick Scott and abortion on the ballot plus add in a large Haitian community that should be pissed off at Trump and Vance right now.

IMHO this is also about making Trump spend money in Florida - which is supposed to be a "Safe R" state for this cycle. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And there's a solid strategic weapon in making your opponent waste some of his precious resources playing defense somewhere

#1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway.  His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor).  
 

#2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere.  
 

I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).  

Posted
1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

I was curious what exactly was in the 2024 GOP platform, regarding how they would address immigration.

https://prod-static.gop.com/media/RNC2024-Platform.pdf

image.png.9d1a67d1701a6f31712f13be7b581b1d.png

 

 

out-the-office.gif

This is a reminder that when you hear someone call Kamala a Marxist, sincerely ask them to define a Marxist because you don't understand what it means. It will make them look and feel stupid. Most likely they will reply with communist or socialist. I would wrap up that conversation in that the Red Scare was proven to be fake in the 50s.

 

Posted
53 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Only Mark Robinson did nazi this coming.

Take it for what it's worth, but I have an in-law in Florida that drives a cyber truck and voted for Trump the first time around that assures me the state is very much in play.  He lives in an area and travels in circles that are affluent, traditionally conservative and were very strongly for Trump in 2016.  He said there was a trickle away in 2020 (when he "defected").  He now calls people leaving the Trump voter fold "a flood."  He says that most of the people who he knows that Trump is losing today aren't going to vote D, but they aren't going to vote R either.  He only fears some crazy October surprise that brings them back to being motivated to vote against the Dems.

That'll be $9.95.

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

#1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway.  His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor).  
 

#2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere.  
 

I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).  

There are post 2024 reasons as well.  You let a state go and it'll keep going.

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Posted
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I still do not believe the Florida is in play.

Florida is in play, and Texas is also in play. Democrats need to stop dooming about R+3 Florida and R+5 Texas. Trump has a hard ceiling and isn’t gaining support, and both states are way too big of a prize to just write off.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

He said there was a trickle away in 2020 (when he "defected").

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think we just peeled back the curtain on how they are skimming the GOP coffers. Good bet that Trump is doing the same - paying himself for speaking at his "rallies" and calling them "speaking engagements."

 

This. She just wants Kamala down there to help her against Scott.

 

IMHO this is also about making Trump spend money in Florida - which is supposed to be a "Safe R" state for this cycle. 

Yes. And even if the Trump campaign ultimately does not focus on FL, they waste time, including fielding calls from Rick Scott, thinking about it. You may even get them to make some mistakes.

The only argument about spending money in decided states is that you may slightly move the national numbers, which can impact undecided states. People have a tendency to follow the crowds.

Not to mention that you might as well spend excess money in states or districts that can help you if you end up winning. Helping Tester get elected, or winning that one more House race may be extremely important in upcoming years.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yes. And even if the Trump campaign ultimately does not focus on FL, they waste time, including fielding calls from Rick Scott, thinking about it. You may even get them to make some mistakes.

I’d 100% drop ads and billboards in West Palm Beach to drive him nuts though. 

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Posted (edited)

While Harris can outspend Trump, she isn't out air timing him, nobody can.   He is talked about and on TV non-stop, almost 24/7, ranting about illegals and inflation.  Of course he never gives tangible realistic ways he or the GOP can fix either...

 

 

Edited by Ted Lange
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise exorcise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

FIFY and there is going to be a whole lot of this on the right...

yNBng5.gif

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Posted

Do they not realize that to have any chance to excise Trump they need to vote FOR Harris?  He needs to be beaten so badly that even the GQP will dump him.  Sitting out doesn't really run up the margins needed for the party to summon the courage to overthrow dear leader.

But of course logic doesn't reign even amongst the educated elites in the GQP.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Florida is in play, and Texas is also in play. Democrats need to stop dooming about R+3 Florida and R+5 Texas. Trump has a hard ceiling and isn’t gaining support, and both states are way too big of a prize to just write off.

Agreed, but the problem with Texas is the size - you have to know where to spend and focus in order to get the maximum benefit and turnout.

Democrats and Republicans have spent YEARS researching and placing targeted ads/offices in specific counties in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia.

They would need to do the same with Texas which has more large cities than any potential swing state. So you are looking at targeting demographic groups in 5 of the 12 most populous cities in America - Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Fort Worth.

That's not even including El Paso which is on the other side of the state - and El Paso is bigger than Detroit, Las Vegas, and Milwaukee (the MSAs are bigger but the cities themselves are smaller).

It can be done but requires a large investment in time, money, personnel, and infrastructure. It's the kind of thing that needs to be built up over several years. 

They at least have an idea where to spend in Florida due to its history as a swing state. 

Edited by The Dog
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Posted

This election is existential in terms of voting not mattering after a Trump dictatorship, that said viewing this assuming democracy survives because the GOP is not in power:

The problem I see with FL is that it is a perpetual fascist migration magnet: old people and white Latin America, its way smarter to concentrate all resources into trying to flip Texas because the demographics are just better. Maybe in 20 years after those COVID snowbirds have died of natural causes. But then another seismic event and they all move into Florida again.

Again this election is too important so disregard the above, if FL is in play dedicate some resources.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, linux said:

This election is existential in terms of voting not mattering after a Trump dictatorship, that said viewing this assuming democracy survives because the GOP is not in power:

The problem I see with FL is that it is a perpetual fascist migration magnet: old people and white Latin America, its way smarter to concentrate all resources into trying to flip Texas because the demographics are just better. Maybe in 20 years after those COVID snowbirds have died of natural causes. But then another seismic event and they all move into Florida again.

Again this election is too important so disregard the above, if FL is in play dedicate some resources.

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Agreed, but the problem with Texas is the size - you have to know where to spend and focus in order to get the maximum benefit and turnout.

Democrats and Republicans have spent YEARS researching and placing targeted ads/offices in specific counties in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia.

They would need to do the same with Texas which has more large cities than any potential swing state. So you are looking at targeting demographic groups in 5 of the 12 most populous cities in America - Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Fort Worth.

That's not even including El Paso which is on the other side of the state - and El Paso is bigger than Detroit, Las Vegas, and Milwaukee.

It can be done but requires a large investment in time, money, personnel, and infrastructure. It's the kind of thing that needs to be built up over several years. 

They at least have an idea where to spend in Florida due to its history as a swing state. 

The Texas Democrat Party (do they really even exist?) has been a failure in letting Texas go without a fight. Even if you are destined to lose, it's important to retain whatever ground you have. They are plenty of potential Democrat voters in Texas who are surrounded by vocal GOP voters. Many just either don't bother voting or they succumb to the pressure of voting GOP. And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pancho said:


Angry Aubrey Plaza GIF by Parks and Recreation

They need to keep hammering the point that his excuses are about as relevant as extraterrestrials invading. Remind them of that and then ask the question again

Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

My daughter turned 18 in August, and she just registered to vote a few days before I fly her to Oregon to move her into her freshman dorm.  She's going to vote absentee from college, and she knows that her vote in Texas won't mean much.  But she wants to contribute to what we hope is a popular vote pile on, and she said she'd regret not voting, no matter the outcome. 

Man, I hope there are a lot more like her in November.

 

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

It's the same with my daughter going to school in New York. She's still a student and intentionally registered in Texas to ensure her vote counts here. Besides, she may yet come back when she graduates but, honestly, she flip-flops a lot on that decision for good reason.

Why are your kids committing voter fraud? [/ken_paxton]

Posted

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

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Posted
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I still do not believe the Florida is in play.

I don't either.  I think the opening more offices thing is more a function of they have more money than they know what to do with, so might as well blow it somewhere.

Posted
1 minute ago, GopherRock said:

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

Not really...

The Villages are about 63-67% for Trump - and the change from 2016 in the NYT precinct map was in the Dems' favor (about 2-7 points more blue than Clinton).  But he didn't need to win The Villages 90-10 to win the state by 3.3

Posted
28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

Posted
1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

Yeah, I hate how surly quotes if you pull it from another post.  Sorry.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

That's NOT oil!

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Posted
13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Great intel. Thanks for sharing. One thing I'd add is that if your friend's confidence in MI (and WI by implication I assume), AZ, NV, and GA are correct, PA's actually not the tipping point. The election is already over if she turns out correct. Though I have a hard time imagining Harris underperforming among black men to the extent it costs her PA, while still winning GA.

Yeah--I agree with that.  And by way of full disclosure, we didn't really talk Georgia in any depth individually.  His commentary was "Arizona and Georgia."  And since I was so surprised by his Arizona take, I focused much more on that.

But you're right that Georgia likely has some of the same challenges Pennsylvania has with respect to Black men.

21 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

I think this goes to what we're seeing in the polling--Harris is doing materially better than Hillary or Biden did among whites (particularly among college-educated whites), and materially worse among Blacks and Hispanics.  It's kind of an interesting de-racialization of the vote.

In the last six weeks of the campaign, it strikes me that Harris has her work cut out for her among Hispanics and Black men.  But I think she's maybe better positioned to make up ground with those groups than Trump is to make up ground with college-educated whites.  But that's just a pretty uninformed sense that's not based on any actual data.

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

This coupled with the de-racialization of the voting patterns (Harris maybe doing better among whites in Wisconsin and Trump doing better among Hispanics in California) may be behind a possible reduction/elimination of the Republican advantage in the Electoral College that the current polling kind of hints at.

We'll see.  But for the time being, it's interesting to speculate about.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

538 now has Harris at a 0.8% overall favorable rating, her highest since '21.  In comparison Trump is at -10% favorable rating. 

Lots of people fooling themselves into thinking it’s ok to vote for a guy they claim to dislike because of “policy” as if villains don’t do villainous things when they have power.  Or that they can believe him when he says what he will and won’t do. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas Democrat Party (do they really even exist?) has been a failure in letting Texas go without a fight. Even if you are destined to lose, it's important to retain whatever ground you have. They are plenty of potential Democrat voters in Texas who are surrounded by vocal GOP voters. Many just either don't bother voting or they succumb to the pressure of voting GOP. And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

and what's worse is they are the ones saying Texas isn't in play which depresses their own turnout. 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, C-Man said:

In a matter of a week, my wife has gone from "no way we're putting a political yard sign out front" to actually entertaining our next door neighbors and us both putting them out so our street will lean heavy Harris in public support.

That's a metaphorical dam breaking. When people overcome that mental barrier, the supporters become vocal and the fencesitters become supporters.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

Oh Yeah Yes GIF by Travis

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

The shitheads.

Posted
20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

Well, it seems in the presidential election if you aren't from one of the seven swing states then you might as well not exist.

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Posted

200.gif

“Do you commit to not killing your wife?”
“Of course, if she doesn’t do something that means she has it coming, yes of course I commit to not killing her.”
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