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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s my hero 

No millennial sits on the phone for 40 min with a stranger unless they’re open to their mind being changed 

Or unless there was some phone sex going on.

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1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

Just now, South Austin said:

Or unless there was some phone sex going on.

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But, since I'm a sovereign citizen, that don't apply to me, right? I'll be sporting my Thor Shield (R) Energy Device Protection, just in case they try to InFRinGE!1!!1 /GQP

27 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

No

I did.  But I'm a middle-aged white dude in an affluent neighborhood so they probably let me slide on principle.

22 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

I’ve been in a bit of a funk since @Bozo_Casanova posted that Nate Silver piece (really just that one Ruy Teixeira link from 2022 that talks about how the Dem party isn‘t able to talk to the working class because I know it’s true), but here’s mine.

Forget the candidates, let’s just talk campaigns and the electorate.  The HUGE money advantage held by the Harris campaign and the fact it’s being run by folks who are still traumatized by 2016 makes me believe they are taking nothing for granted.  Plouffe was on with Dan Pfeiffer on PSA (so the wonkiest of the boys with one of the Harris dominant strategists) and Plouffe admitted internals were much tighter than the public polls.  

If we take that as true, which campaign is in a position to maximize that?  The Harris campaign may not have a simple, digestible message.  It might be swimming against economic tides. But, one of those fundamentals of politics is that it is SO powerful to have an actual human, a campaign representative, ask for your vote.  The Harris campaign has the money and the logistical support to make that ask.  
 

The other part I come back to is that Trump has done absolutely nothing in the last four years to sell himself outside of his MAGA core of support.  If he’s picking someone up it’s not because they like the candidate, it’s a protest vote, and I’m hopeful that that sense of dissatisfaction is getting picked up by the polls, but it’s not the same thing as casting the vote.  Voters have had their opportunity to vent, so to speak, and some of those Trump voters will now be okay with voting for Harris.  

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

5 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

But, since I'm a sovereign citizen, that don't apply to me, right?

That depends. Check for maritime law fringes on any flags flying on the polling location. 

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

This is the perfect CR reply.

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Voted! I've never voted on the first day of early voting before, but I wanted to get voting against the orange piece of shit for the third time over with so I can just spend the rest of the time until the election sweating 

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

19 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

No. Some billionaires placed some big bets to move the line, that's all that is.

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

Wait, I thought the illegal immigrants were busy forcing sex change operations on our children in the military.  That’s what Ted Cruz said.

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

It is always a little funny to me when ~20% of those polled are like, "Who the fuck are Tim Walz and JD Vance?"

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

No.  Which is why the polls are bullshit.

He only managed to eek out a win against Hillary, who was just as underwater as he was in 2016.

51-46 for Harris is almost in line with what I think her PV total will be. 

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

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5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

Yeah I hate Vance and Trump but my grocery bills are too high and Trump is a businessman. Now excuse me while I go out to eat and will drop the equivalent of one week's cost of groceries on a single meal. 

2 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Voted! I've never voted on the first day of early voting before, but I wanted to get voting against the orange piece of shit for the third time over with so I can just spend the rest of the time until the election sweating 

Same.  I dream of the day that my vote in NW Travis county will matter in any fucking election at all, but as long as I'm herded into a house district with nimrods from Madisonville, Columbus and Sealy (seriously, WTF), I guess I'll keep yelling at clouds.

31 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/allowed-at-the-polling-place.html

No phones or other wireless communication devices within 100 feet of voting locations (100 ft is the distance marker, where political signs abruptly end)

No firearms unless you are a peace officer

No clothing advocating for or against a candidate, measure, or political party.

Thanks.  Does wearing my t-shirt that has a picture of a naked Arnold Palmer count as advocating for Trump?  

24 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

This is one where I think the data is definitely off.

Posited:

1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen.

2) males gamble on predictit more than females.

3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization.

= predictit saying Trump will win handily.

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

4 minutes?  Take it easy there, Arnold Palmer. 

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

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For those of you worrying, if you notice the polls haven't really changed at all for the swing states in the past month. For real polls of different samples with margins of error built in that aren't weighted, that wouldn't happen. You'd see some swings back and forth. They're weighting the polls because they're terrified of missing Trump voters like they did in 2016 and 2020. We have no idea how much they're weighting, but I bet it's pretty substantial. Everyone just thinks it should be about a coinflip race so the pollsters tweak R share of the electorate, predicted turnout in Philly, etc. to get a poll that's almost 50/50. But they've been missing to the right in every race and ballot measure since Dobbs and this new weighting only compounds that error. 

Does anyone seriously think Trump has any real advantages or has done anything in the last month to help himself? He's way underwater in approval and his VP is even worse. They're trailing in enthusiasm. His campaign has no fucking money or GOTV. Trump is falling apart on the campaign trail.  Even their "advantage" with billionaire donors trying to make up for his campaign's cash and GOTV deficiencies is an incompetent clownshow operation that's easy to ratfuck by having Dems sign Elon's petition, etc. They're literally not doing anything right. The open fascism is a desperate attempt to re-energize their base, but it's not working because Trump doesn't have the juice any more and that shit turns off more voters than it brings in.

Vote and make sure your friends who aren't Republicans vote and we'll beat these fucking losers, just like they did earlier this year in France and the UK. We can't let the fucking French be better at antifascism than us.

Edited by wildcat09

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

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I am doing my best, but I am also moving to Denver on Saturday, so I will do my best to talk everyone off the ledge in between killing myself (fucking hate packing/unpacking) or on the road.

Edited by Js1

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I voted first thing this morning.  Pretty good line, but I got there during a brief lull and was in-and-out in less than 15 minutes.  The "voted" stickers are swanky this year.

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4 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

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Counterpoint:  Brisket's job from now until election day:

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Voted. Sadly Montana is going the wrong direction.

3 hours ago, Hawndoh said:

Disagree. The middle class is not interested in saving anything and programs and policies don't work because the middle class has a culture problem. Plenty in the middle class could save and build wealth like years past, but they would rather get the giant truck they don't need, the 5000 square foot house they don't need, 3 kids all on travel youth sports teams, etc.

Why save money when that doesn't get any engagement on Instagram?

The middle class struggles because they are stupid with their money. Not because of a lack of opportunities.

In Texas, if the schools are good, the house zoned to them is likely 5k sq ft. A Kia Telluride is 50k to start. Might as well get that big truck. Well equipped Burbin is right at 100k. If you don't put your kid in travel sports, in most places they won't even make the school team. It's serious bidness.

Bottom line though. Middle classers used to all the same keepin up with the Joneses, and off of one income.

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

Can we give Walz any credit for this?  This seems to be the demo that he's going after and connecting with, especially in the Blue Wall states.  

1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Can we give Walz any credit for this?  This seems to be the demo that he's going after and connecting with, especially in the Blue Wall states.  

We should.  This is his demo - he represented these types of voters in Congress.  

8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Counterpoint:  Brisket's job from now until election day:

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You're not wrong.

I keep thinking something that is probably the motto of most Surlyites' wives: "I just wish this would be over already."

But I also keep thinking something that most Surlyites' wives NEVER think: "This is taking forever."

I guess the Blacks for Trump squad didn't make it to Latrobe ...

 

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Oh shit, a McDonald's appearance AND Antonio Brown?? How are the Dems going to complete? #killshot

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Oh shit, a McDonald's appearance AND Antonio Brown?? How are the Dems going to complete? #killshot

Make America Healthy Again!

*Sends Trump to do a fake photo-op at a fast food restaurant

*Brings in some guy with CTE

Anyone seen JD Vance lately?  Did the campaign lock him up in a sofa warehouse?

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Done and dusted... not as cool as Michigan's werewolve tearing its clothes off but still more fun than the generic sticker.

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27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

Carville made a really good point the other day.  (He's still one of the best, really.)

He said that if some of the polls are to be believed (which he doesn't), Trump and the R's are making marginal gains among some minority groups, particularly with men.  However, he said that's more than offset by gains for Harris and the D's among the whites, particularly the college educated block.  That combined with that poll above might back that up.  His final point was that whites make up like 2/3 of the electorate so just a few points either way is much more impactful than even a double digit swing among these other groups, especially factoring in the voting turnout among those respective groups.

He predicted 2024 might the Year of the White Vote for the Democrats and that's something he thought he'd never say.

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I was in line behind maybe 35 people at 6:50 and done by 7:15. 

Fuck Donald Trump.

Edited by RichUT

13 minutes ago, PhillyD said:

Anyone seen JD Vance lately?  Did the campaign lock him up in a sofa warehouse?

This.  He's been conspicuously absent since the VP debate.

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Oh, and @dcbc, I just printed a sample ballot, and like city council races, there is no "D" or "R" next to the school board candidates' name.  So I'll have check on those candidates' party affiliations.  

That's strange.  I wonder why that is?

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‘Central Park Five’ members sue Trump for defamation after his debate comments on 1989 case

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/21/politics/central-park-five-trump-defamation/index.html

Quote

Members of the “Central Park Five” sued former President Donald Trump on Monday over “false and defamatory” statements they allege he made about their 1989 case during a presidential debate last month.

The five men claim in a 20-page federal lawsuit that Trump knew he was acting with “reckless disregard” for the truth when he said during the September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris that they pleaded guilty to crimes connected to the beating and raping a woman in New York City, and that the five teenagers “badly hurt a person, killed a person” in the attack.

“Defendant Trump’s statements were false and defamatory in numerous respects,” attorneys for the men, now all in their 50s, wrote in the lawsuit filed in federal court in Philadelphia. “Plaintiffs never pled guilty to the Central Park assaults. Plaintiffs all pled not guilty and maintained their innocence throughout their trial and incarceration, as well as after they were released from prison.”

“None of the victims of the Central Park assaults were killed,” the attorneys wrote.

CNN has reached out to Trump representatives for comment.

The men are seeking compensatory and punitive damages. The suit also claims that Trump’s comments placed them in a false light and caused them to “suffer severe emotional distress.”

The group was pressured into giving false confessions in the case. They were exonerated in 2002 when DNA evidence linked another person to the crime. The teenagers sued the city, and the case was settled in 2014.

 

Just now, dcbc said:

That's strange.  I wonder why that is?

Do the council and school board candidates in East Texas have party affiliations on the ballots?  

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i was voter #456 at bee cave city hall.  took 15 minutes but the line doubled while i was there. fuck trump and fuck cruz.

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Do the council and school board candidates in East Texas have party affiliations on the ballots?  

City council and school board races are supposed to be nonpartisan, I believe. So yeah, I guess it tracks but they’ll be endorsed by the local parties. Or look out for the ones endorsed by Moms 4 Liberty 

Edited by Js1

Yeah the council, mayor, school board are all supposed to be non-partisan even though they absolutely are...some dangerously fringe. You need to research those most of all...and of course there is the least amount out there to help you.

I'm trying to not get excited. 

I guess I can go look at Ted Cruz' smug smackable visage. That's usually enough to quell any enthusiasm.

Just now, South Austin said:

Do the council and school board candidates in East Texas have party affiliations on the ballots?  

I don't know.  If I had to guess, I'd guess they all are R, even the ones who I know for a fact are D.  There wasn't anything local on my ballot today.  Smaller town.  So I'm guessing my school board rep wasn't up for re-election.  Other than President, mostly judges, other state offices, and reps today.  

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

‘Central Park Five’ members sue Trump for defamation after his debate comments on 1989 case

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/21/politics/central-park-five-trump-defamation/index.html

Good for them.  "Central Park Five" is one of my favorite all-time documentaries.  I watched it again recently, and it's still enraging and haunting at how our justice system completely fucked with those kids' lives.  Trump used his celebrity currency to fan those flames, and he was every bit an enabler.  Among the many things that piece of shit has done in his life, a big "fuck you" for that one. 

My heart still aches for those five men.  

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