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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

Fabrizio giving Trump the RCP averages rather than his own polling tells me they know he's losing, but don't want to tell him that.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps.  I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic.  I still expect big counties to lag.  

I should add, however, that once the big EV dump occurs in all counties, if my math is more or less correct, we will have approximately 75% of all votes accounted for.  That's why I think Georgia will be called fairly early either way, because the bulk of the remaining vote will be Atlanta, and the math gets pretty easy for analysts at that point.  I've been saying Wasserman says he's seen enough come 10:30 est, and right now, I'd actually bet the under on that.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

Overall I think this is correct. I have sensed a little uptick in the Harris campaign vibes and maybe pause in the Turnip campaign ones this week though. I'm guessing that is probably from analysis of where the votes are coming from so far but that's just a shot in the dark.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

PA is also one of the very few states where Trump has a ground game. IIRC he has about the same number of offices there as Harris - but that may not be the case anymore.

That's a lot of Pennsylvania landlords who are getting stiffed on office rent.

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Final turnip schedule 

image.thumb.png.643c1e692e29b8e7b3ce6a8d37eaa3be.png
 

image.png.63bbac7b6f0ece47093763368c8b9edb.png

That's the frantic pace that ygifs predicted would finally end Trump.  Lets fucking go!

Also he's going to be 4 hours or more late to the later rallies. People are going to be passing out, sleeping, leaving maybe dieing.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I love how, when it's Trump saying to execute Liz Cheney, it's incumbent on us to scour the internet for context and we're being disingenuous for criticizing his choice of words and violent imagery, but when it's Biden stepping on his words while defending Puerto Ricans and borrowing the words of a hack comedian to admonish that comedian, we need to disregard Biden's clarification and the fact that he's been a lifelong stutterer.

It's been almost 10 years of this shit with Trump. Republicans abandoned good faith and sincere discussion at least a generation ago. It takes a lot of discipline to defeat this bullshit, and that discipline is impossible due to social media where any asshole can "report" indiscretions and flood the zone with information. Everything gets muddled and serious scandals become less likely to be properly absorbed by voters. 

 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic.

Never forget, McLaughlin was the pollster who told Eric Cantor he would win his primary by 34 points. He lost by 11

The RNC told campaigns not to use or trust McLaughlin's data. 

 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So basically the GOP said "Vote early, but make it a mail in ballot, so it will take time to tabulate and I can scream Fraud." Not surprisingly, but Jesus the detail that went into them claiming fraud is insane. 

 

There’s technically no early voting in PA, only mail in. But you can go to the county elections office and request a mail in ballot in person, fill it out right there, and then put it into the mail in ballot drop box. 

Posted
24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well no, in-person early voting in PA is basically being handed a mail-in ballot, filling it out and handing it back.  It's kind of dumb, but it is essentially "in-person early mail voting."  These in-person requests categorize as a requested mail ballot, which is why the GOP's request and return rates increased last week. 

The only true "in person voting" by machine is Tuesday. 

Beat me to it. 

It’s a way to allow early voting within the constraints of the law that was passed expanding mail in voting in 2019. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

PA Firewall update:

394k (D-R) - Dems have surpassed this portion of the firewall
441k (D-R and winning indies 70-30) - 441k

Should grow some more after the Monday update that covers Fri-Sat-Sun

Do we have an idea how many people will be trickling in on those dates?

Posted
27 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Agreed. The democratic strategists that told Donald Trump to bring up Liz Cheney in an interview and suggest she get shot should be seriously reprimanded for this stupidity...

C'mon, man. Bigger picture, his Cheney comments are an absolute nothingburger. The fact that it's taking up oxygen for Democrats 3 days before the election really sucks. 

 

Posted
Just now, chainsaw said:

Do we have an idea how many people will be trickling in on those dates?

Nope, but "in person" early voting in PA ended on Wednesday

Thursday - 1,625,706

Friday - 1,688,551

So looks like ~53k ballots got processed overnight.  Maybe 150-200k ballots to report Monday?  Smithley expects both Dems and GOP to get into the low-80s in return % (Dems 79%, GOP 77.5% right now) 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

 

15 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

C'mon, man. Bigger picture, his Cheney comments are an absolute nothingburger. The fact that it's taking up oxygen for Democrats 3 days before the election really sucks. 

 

What do you want Democrats to be talking about? Policy?

Sir, this is America.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Never forget, McLaughlin was the pollster who told Eric Cantor he would win his primary by 34 points. He lost by 11

The RNC told campaigns not to use or trust McLaughlin's data. 

 

I'm not going to defend John McLaughlin (well, maybe if it came to a head to head between him and Mark Penn), but he was right about 2016 and deep inside the campaign so I figure he's good for a vibe check.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

i wish some prominent Dem would tell Trump supporters to eat shit.  i'd set up a food truck immediately and serve nothing but heaping plates of steaming dog shit, cat shit, baboon shit, orangutan shit (we have a local zoo so i'd get paid to shovel it and turn profit on it)...all kinds of shit, whatever shit they wanted to eat to troll the Dems, i'd sell it to 'em.  heaping plates of it.

You got Gibbon Shit? But not too salty. Those other guys put too much salt on it. I want to taste the gibbon, not the salt.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

Why anyone is trying to apply logic to Trump’s campaign is beyond me. He will go where he thinks he gets the biggest crowd. That’s all there is to it. 

And to anyplace that will still book him. He's running out of venues.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

image.png.53b4e50bd028613b037708607d317be6.png

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Posted
1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

You got Gibbon Shit? But not too salty. Those other guys put too much salt on it. I want to taste the gibbon what the gibbon ate, not the salt.

fify

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Ok well agree to disagree on the quality of weed products in Texas vs legal states. 

You can get products from CO easily in Austin. Delivered.

Edited by Born to Run
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

So breaking that Marist poll for PA:

The early vote/already voted from that poll is 63-35 Harris.  The "yet to vote" is 54-44 Trump.  You can tell the GOP has cannibalized some of their E-Day voters, while a significant number of Dems have shifted to E-Day voting, since 2020 E-Day was 65-35 Trump and the EV was 76-28 Biden.  

Democrats also have a few more days to push their EV margins up, since Thursday-Monday are all mail ballot returns, no "in-person voting" until Tuesday.  GOP encouraged their voters to show up early, request a mail ballot and then immediately cast it, which is effectively what PA's early in-person voting is. 

Also Smithley points out Marist nailed the 2022 Senate topline in their final poll, when others were trying to push it to a tie/Oz lead. 

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

constant onslaught of media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

I got some news for ya: At this point, there is a better explanation other than clicks and eyeballs. I'm betting there are lot of MAGA-friendly people working in the media who don't mind Trump winning.

That means they are fascists or fascist enablers.

 

Edited by BevoAbyss
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Posted
1 minute ago, fuggled said:

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

 

ozark-ruth.gif

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Posted
2 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Friends of mine, all educated, white women in Texas, dressed as garbage and bragged about their votes.

I got news for ya: Your friends are fascists. It's 100% obvious. Why are you friends with them? 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote. 

Sure, it all comes down to turnout.  FYI, I plugged in your updated EV number (1,688,551) and went with your assumption of 150K more dropping on Monday.  If PA hits 2020 turnout with those numbers and you assume the Marist poll is accurate, Harris would win by 6K votes.

Posted
17 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

God damn you! There's a fucking Chili's within walking distance to me.

I live .4 miles from a Chili’s and have ubered there. Matter of fact I might walk there and blast some beers in another hour. 

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Posted

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

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Posted
35 minutes ago, safe sex said:

 Also who the fuck FLIES back with weed? FedEx overnight that shit like a civilized person

 

Ehh, was told to always put it in your checked bag because TSA isn’t looking for that, they are looking for bombs.

 

Another win for #teamcheckbags

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