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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Texas Fight said:

So, you don’t know?

I know that if they had those things, this wouldn't have happened. Either they nothing or had a very poorly implemented plan. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
That place crossed my mind yesterday when the updates about the camps getting flooded started coming out, as that's where my troop went in the summer when I was a scout. Never flooded when I was there, but it's pretty crazy that they have the campsite in that deep valley and along that creek.

Spent an idyllic week in the first campground on the other side of that creek. Even a small squall swells it enough to make things sporty.
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Posted
4 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

I said it earlier in the thread that there is no excuse for having as bad cell service as they do where all these camps are located. I don’t know who it is that fixes that but it always made me super nervous when my kids were going. 

Range extenders should be in place.

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Posted
Just now, MirrOlure said:

Has there been a single repot about anyone being rescued or found today? I haven’t seen anything since the girl was found in a tree 12 miles downriver 

I think the 2 PM press conference is going to be brutal.  I sure hope I'm wrong.

Posted
5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Lot of flooding in Liberty Hill/Leander.  You can use this website to check for road closures which will also help determine where the conditions are deteriorated in general.

https://atxfloods.com/

I drove down to South Austin and back to the Cedar Park area earlier today and aside from rain bands, the roads were fine.  I was entirely on major roads of course.

 

 

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Keep this link handy: https://drivetexas.org/

Thank you(s).

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

This same fucking area flooded in 1987.

Why is the no warning system in place ?

You probably answered the question.    The area hasn’t had a historic event like this one since 1987 almost forty years ago.   They’ve had plenty of floods since then, but not one of this significance or which caused so much loss of life.  It’s kind of like in hurricane prone zones  with building methods or where one builds doesn’t change until an event pushes it.    I think a more short term look back would be to see what they did in the Wimberley area after the Blanco floods 10 years ago.  

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

Not true. 

So... your argument is that somehow they had good monitoring and a good plan, but missed this thing that was talked about for hours in advance? What is the non negligent scenario? Everyone in charge of monitoring and evacuation spontaneously combusted?

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
2 minutes ago, dcbc said:

 

Thank you(s).

YW.  And I just realized you typed Tyler not Taylor, so bolverk's link will be of more use than mine. :)

 

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Posted
Heard from a colleague that authorities have recovered 13 bodies of missing Mystic campers. If true, not sure why that isn't out there with names held back but maybe that will come out in the next PC, which I think is scheduled for 2.
Still hoping and praying for miracle for Lulu.

B/c they are waiting for some of the bodies to still be ID’d by the parents
Posted
1 minute ago, Orange&White said:

Listen, dude. I get it. You’re mad. But the reports say these girls woke up to chest deep water. If anyone was monitoring it, then why the fuck did they wait to react?

This will be my last response to this ridiculous argument.

You have no idea what happened there. You have no first hand knowledge. You are just talking shit and blaming. 

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If we’re talking about systems state officials have available…just treat life-threatening floods like they react whenever a cop gets shot:6e3d05fb0bc18635f5fccc7539f9e72c.jpg

Blaming the NWS is chickenshit. But the next time I see Texas state officials take responsibility for dropping the ball will be the first.

 

41 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:


This.

July 4th is a big reason.

We’ll find that a lot of officials were on autopilot. 
Nothing will come of it. It’s the way things work now. True risk assessment and prep is hard. Yes there are mitigating factors…… but having done root cause analysis, the ultimate root cause is rarely identified correctly and it rarely rolls up to the level that it should.

But we were failed by leadership and their complacently. Don’t let anyone lie to you and say otherwise.

Seems like Texas officials have been failing for the last 25 years or so. It's expected at this point.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

You probably answered the question.    The area hasn’t had a historic event like this one since 1987 almost forty years ago.   They’ve had plenty of floods since then, but not one of this significance or which caused so much loss of life.  It’s kind of like in hurricane prone zones  with building methods or where one builds doesn’t change until an event pushes it.    I think a more short term look back would be to see what they did in the Wimberley area after the Blanco floods 10 years ago.  

Think they will install warning systems upstream now?
A little late because it should have been done a long time ago.

One excuse that cannot be used is “it has never happened here before.”

Edited by Steamboat1874
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Tonesky said:

 

lawsuits > bankruptcy > land sold to real estate speculator/developer....

I heard the old Arrowhead camp was sold to the Governor of West Virginia after the owners died. 
He supposedly turned it into a family resort “compound”.

Camp Honey Creek people are already talking about reopening for a term in the next week or two….if they can get power & water back on.

Posted
16 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Lake Travis now above 651.  That's ~13.5 feet since 8 AM yesterday.

And both Hamilton Creek and Big Sandy still running at almost 50K cfs.

 

Travis floods around 680 or so, right?  Does LCRA start releasing now or wait until it has reached that level?

Posted
Travis floods around 680 or so, right?  Does LCRA start releasing now or wait until it has reached that level?

Nope, 681 is full - doesn’t start to flood till around 700. No, they will not release any yet, we have a long way to go still.
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Posted
18 minutes ago, dcbc said:

This is all just horrific.  But quick aside: I have question for those in the area.  My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn.  He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks.  But nothing compared to Mystic obviously.  He's in Marble Falls at the moment.  With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin.  What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Lot of flooding in Liberty Hill/Leander.  You can use this website to check for road closures which will also help determine where the conditions are deteriorated in general.

https://atxfloods.com/

I drove down to South Austin and back to the Cedar Park area earlier today and aside from rain bands, the roads were fine.  I was entirely on major roads of course.

 

Just had a family member drive from Kingsland to Austin. 71 was fine. 1431 has closed spots. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, TOR said:

Travis floods around 680 or so, right?  Does LCRA start releasing now or wait until it has reached that level?

I doubt it will get anywhere near full enough to open any gates at Mansfield.

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Posted
1 minute ago, TOR said:

Travis floods around 680 or so, right?  Does LCRA start releasing now or wait until it has reached that level?

680 is considered full.  Right now it's still 30 feet low and that's less than 50% I think, so they wouldn't likely consider releasing at any point during this event.

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Posted
3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Any updates on flows into Canyon Lake??

Also @Cajun since you live there, any news at Canyon Lake??

The lake is up almost 6 feet since 7am this morning when the wall of water hit.  On top of that we got a serious 2 hr downpour this morning.  Probably dumped another 4 inches or so right on top of us.  The Guadalupe below the dam is now swollen bigly and they've closed River Road from Sattler to NB.  I don't think any houses are in danger, but they are doing some "rescues" by boat into neighborhood near Gruene where the water has cut off vehicle access.  That was just shown on the SA NBC affiliate.  

For now the rain has stopped here.  I did a drone flyover the lake yesterday before it got nasty and now that the weather has calmed down I'm getting ready to do another to get a before/after look at what has happened.  I'll post that up here once downloaded to my Vimeo account.

I watched a video on FB of a local that charters pontoon boats earlier.  He was out on the lake just getting an assessment early this morning.  There were crazy currents, swirls, and the water had gone from turquoise green and blue to Mississippi mud brown.  There were also gigantic trees floating around in the middle of the lake.  Really big ones.  

That's about all I got for now.  Will update soon.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Just had a family member drive from Kingsland to Austin. 71 was fine. 1431 has closed spots. 

Much appreciated.  Just relayed the info to him.

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

Seems like Texas officials have been failing for the last 25 years or so. It's expected at this point.

Let’s try to keep this less cloak room.

I just know in this particular instance we were, though.

it’s only highlighted by the loss of life by children. Sadly that hasn’t moved the needle on true and effective change in the past. I’m so emotionally depleted right now.

Edited by Dnaguy
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Posted
23 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Heard about an 8 year old camper at Camp Longhorn who was supposed to be picked up today as it's the final day of term. Her entire family - mom, dad, little brother, and little sister - are all missing.

Holy shit. I didn't think you could come up with a worse scenario than multiple cabins with elementary age girls washing away in a flood but this might actually be worse.

Jesus.

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Posted

My sister lives just down river from Sattler across from River Road.  She took this video from the back porch after the big dump of rain this morning.  All of this is from that rain, none from the Kerrville flood.  Crazy...

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Posted
2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

680 is considered full.  Right now it's still 30 feet low and that's less than 50% I think, so they wouldn't likely consider releasing at any point during this event.

Just cracked 50%

image.png.d99154d52b4ed0cedc6284288a009ff4.png

but yeah, the amount needed to fill the top 10 feet is a hell of a lot more than is needed to fill the first 10 feet. 

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Posted

My mom said the director of Heart of the Hills is gone. 

Little sister went there for a few years. 

I'm guessing if the director at Mystic isn't they are wishing they were. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The reality is NOTHING is going to move the needle. It doesn't matter how many children are lost. That is not CR, that is reality. Period. 

Jim Carrey Reaction GIF by Laff

Posted
8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Just cracked 50%

image.png.d99154d52b4ed0cedc6284288a009ff4.png

but yeah, the amount needed to fill the top 10 feet is a hell of a lot more than is needed to fill the first 10 feet. 

For sure, each incremental foot of lakerise requires more and more water.  But I won't be surprised if it reaches or gets close to 660 now, at this point.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Just cracked 50%

image.png.d99154d52b4ed0cedc6284288a009ff4.png

but yeah, the amount needed to fill the top 10 feet is a hell of a lot more than is needed to fill the first 10 feet. 

I’m guessing about 50%. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Just cracked 50%

image.png.d99154d52b4ed0cedc6284288a009ff4.png

but yeah, the amount needed to fill the top 10 feet is a hell of a lot more than is needed to fill the first 10 feet. 

Geometry and volume …..

spacer.png

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Posted
Just now, utee94 said:

For sure, each incremental foot of lakerise requires more and more water.  But I won't be surprised if it reaches or gets close to 660 now, at this point.

Even 670 wouldnt shock me when its all said and done. But having to open any floodgates would. 

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Posted
My mom said the director of Heart of the Hills is gone. 
Little sister went there for a few years. 
I'm guessing if the director at Mystic isn't they are wishing they were. 

Dick the owner passed during the event. His 2 sons run it with him and one had got swept away but they might have found him.
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Posted
1 minute ago, ZB'Tejas said:


Dick the owner passed during the event. His 2 sons run it with him and one had got swept away but they might have found him.

Maybe that's who she was referring to. 

Posted
1 minute ago, ZB'Tejas said:


A post from a friend…
This is a tragedy beyond tragedy's. Violent storms on the evening of 7/3 flooded the Guadalupe River which Camp Mystic rests on. The damn broke and all the younger girl cabins down on the "Flats" as they call it were basically submerged. From my daughter Tiny, "Water rose up to the door mom. The only way out was to break the back window and climb out. It was am and I couldn't find my shoes. I was so scared but I kept going. I had my retainers in but didn't want to lose them, so l put them in the pocket of my pajamas. We climbed through the window and headed up the hill.
The rocks really hurt my feet and I was so cold and shivering. We got to the top of the mountain and our counselor Annabelle was with us and was so awesome.
She kept us safe under a tree. We huddled shivering and singing songs in the dark. Mom I thought I was going to die I was so scared. The thunder and lightening was so loud. Once it got lighter out we made our way back down to the Cypress side of camp and then Annabelle through us over the river and we ran into the dining hall of Cypress where we sat in the dark.
They found me some dry clothes. We all just sat there waiting and waiting for hours. Then we were told we were getting on helicopters. Mom I didn't know if I would see you again."

That is heartbreaking to hear but glad she made it. 

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Posted
Just now, ZB'Tejas said:


Dick the owner passed during the event. His 2 sons run it with him and one had got swept away but they might have found him.


Dick is LaJunta / Mystic.

Jane and the Ragsdales are Stewart / Heart o’ the hills. 
Tragic any way you slice it though.

fucking awful.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:


A post from a friend…
This is a tragedy beyond tragedy's. Violent storms on the evening of 7/3 flooded the Guadalupe River which Camp Mystic rests on. The damn broke and all the younger girl cabins down on the "Flats" as they call it were basically submerged. From my daughter Tiny, "Water rose up to the door mom. The only way out was to break the back window and climb out. It was am and I couldn't find my shoes. I was so scared but I kept going. I had my retainers in but didn't want to lose them, so l put them in the pocket of my pajamas. We climbed through the window and headed up the hill.
The rocks really hurt my feet and I was so cold and shivering. We got to the top of the mountain and our counselor Annabelle was with us and was so awesome.
She kept us safe under a tree. We huddled shivering and singing songs in the dark. Mom I thought I was going to die I was so scared. The thunder and lightening was so loud. Once it got lighter out we made our way back down to the Cypress side of camp and then Annabelle through us over the river and we ran into the dining hall of Cypress where we sat in the dark.
They found me some dry clothes. We all just sat there waiting and waiting for hours. Then we were told we were getting on helicopters. Mom I didn't know if I would see you again."

I haven’t cried yet during this shit.

Well. 
That’s one fucking thing to cross off the list.

That ripped my guts out.

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