Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

i don't know them, never knew them, never heard of them, so this is my outsider take - it seems to me the eastlands got lazy OR they were possibly infected by the hillmaga virus which seems to be nearly ubiquitous in kerr county - as i wrote above in my sendup on the aggy bonfire report - guadalupe flooding is a kerr county institution and the ruling cabal does not edit the "we've always done it this way" doctrine unless forced to do so.... i.e. with the blood of hundreds on their hands

the escapegoat for kerrmaga could very well be evil dem feds exempting the bubble inn from the floodplain - who contested for mystic?  eastlands or a firm on their behalf?  they're gone so i can see kerrmaga hanging this around their necks

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Ugh, this is not a good look for Mystic — or the powers-that-be. Pretty certain powerful Mystic connections greased a few wheels to get this done time and time again.

Hed: FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show

https://apnews.com/article/texas-flood-camp-mystic-map-records-investigation-e12bee8d5f88301363861ca12c19b929?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR641lzvK9L8pr0mUbZmM58Hko0lyiW91YaiuymClSDaONGNn8BcocdvtI6iag_aem_lBuTHt__iEeZCfaKsWPxvA#wnv79s3henrwohu42coulr4hvw3aeqgrw

  • Rage+1 2
Posted
1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 


The article raises questions 

IMG_3952.thumb.jpeg.418c6f2c1f63a08c987bc8c5236d214c.jpeg

 

When were these appeals filed?

Why were the appeals granted? For what reasons?

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted

Ever watch that movie Bernie? Wouldn't shock me that the most popular dude in town, who has helped hundreds of people and would give you the shirt off his back, could also be capable of a shady dealing or two. Humans are multifaceted.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

somewhere in the content maelstrom from the past week was a comment from a woman in her 40s who was a 4-year mystic alum from the early 80s

she said something to the effect of "she remembered the long-time mystic maintenance man, __________, (she remembered his name) who would take a chair down to the floodplain and watch the river every time it rained at night"

i continue to maintain that this was not a "100-year" event, that it happens every 10-15 years, and the institutional memory of the locals which knew this, died off before the turn of the century 


That AP article describes a 100 year event as something that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Calling something a 100 year or 500 year event apparently is just a way to dumb down statistics.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
Just now, GenXer said:


That AP article describes a 100 year event as something that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Calling something a 100 year or 500 year event apparently is just a way to dumb down statistics.

Yeah this comes up every big flood, for sure.  Dumb down- or make it seem less likely than it actually is for whatever reasons. 

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yeah this comes up every big flood, for sure.  Dumb down- or make it seem less likely than it actually is for whatever reasons. 

Yep. A "100 year" event is >50% to happen in any given 69 year period. 500 year event in a 347 year period. 

  • Like 1
Posted
14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yep. A "100 year" event is >50% to happen in any given 69 year period. 500 year event in a 347 year period. 

Apparently at this point a "100 year" event is >50% likely in any given 10-15 year period.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
3 hours ago, GenXer said:


The article raises questions 

When were these appeals filed?

Why were the appeals granted? For what reasons?

 

I didn't think the article was all that subtle tbh

 

When were these appeals filed?

image.png.701456b3178172555b8675e4625a3e9d.png

Why were the appeals granted?

image.thumb.png.46de9ac4aef4f6f32dd9368ee3e811ef.png

image.png.e257e7f719441be24c25e49fc9df5975.png

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
31 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Every single level of this thing had at least one hole in the Swiss to make it happen…makes me think of AF 447 where the dumbass FO pulling full deflection on the yoke all the way down to the Atlantic shoulders the blame, but also their training + poor CRM + the pitot probes + the way Airbus handled dual input on the side sticks.  

- Mystic for not being proactive, not posting watch, no effective internal comms once power was lost, shitty evac plans, even way back with flood plain exceptions even if my 8yo could tell you it’ll flood there someday.  

- Kerrville residents who drank the raw MAGA kook aid to the point of refusing free money to better their community 

- Kerrville and county leadership for humoring that bullshit multiple times and dismissing the danger before hand, and that bullshit pc where he stormed off in his camo hat for the slightest bit of criticism 

- State leadership for patting themselves on the back and fellating Trump on tv, Abbott for his football/loser statement, etc…also see 2021 freeze, Uvalde, hurricanes, etc

-TrumpCo for killing essential services, putting Kang and Kodos clones in key positions, dumbass rules that hindered aide flow, etc.  

 

Been thinking the same thing someone else said..I sure hope the dads are getting organized to hold accountability at every level and not just Mystic, because if losing your child is still not enough to flip your political switch away from this madness then I’m shoving Brisket out of the way as I run past him off the ledge.  
image.gif.87814e5245921c7c70549f7c97ceab5f.gif

Republicans to those parents… 

IMG_6495.gif.58cb751d004335326ae4ddf65a476deb.gif
 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 3
Posted
Every single level of this thing had at least one hole in the Swiss to make it happen…makes me think of AF 447 where the dumbass FO pulling full deflection on the yoke all the way down to the Atlantic shoulders the blame, but also their training + poor CRM + the pitot probes + the way Airbus handled dual input on the side sticks.  
- Mystic for not being proactive, not posting watch, no effective internal comms once power was lost, shitty evac plans, even way back with flood plain exceptions even if my 8yo could tell you it’ll flood there someday.  
- Kerrville residents who drank the raw MAGA kook aid to the point of refusing free money to better their community 
- Kerrville and county leadership for humoring that bullshit multiple times and dismissing the danger before hand, and that bullshit pc where he stormed off in his camo hat for the slightest bit of criticism 
- State leadership for patting themselves on the back and fellating Trump on tv, Abbott for his football/loser statement, etc…also see 2021 freeze, Uvalde, hurricanes, etc
-TrumpCo for killing essential services, putting Kang and Kodos clones in key positions, dumbass rules that hindered aide flow, etc.  
 
Been thinking the same thing someone else said..I sure hope the dads are getting organized to hold accountability at every level and not just Mystic, because if losing your child is still not enough to flip your political switch away from this madness then I’m shoving Brisket out of the way as I run past him off the ledge.  
image.gif.87814e5245921c7c70549f7c97ceab5f.gif

I’ll go ahead and get out of your way…cuz ain’t nuthin’ gonna happen.
El Paso.
Uvalde.
The freeze.
The flood.
The dead Texans are what tell you the GQP policies are WORKING.
Every one of those events isn’t a GQP policy failure, it’s a policy success. And their voters, who are irredeemable evil ghouls, like it and want more of it.
A few angry dads? Bitch please. They’ll be dismissed as treasonous RINOs, and eventually, subjected to legal sanction and perhaps imprisonment in the camps that are literally being built as we speak.
Evil has won. Completely, totally, and with so few shreds of good remaining they aren’t even worth counting.
Every leader who supported and helped this along will be reelected. In a landslide.
  • Hook 'Em 6
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

I didn't think the article was all that subtle tbh

 

When were these appeals filed?

image.png.701456b3178172555b8675e4625a3e9d.png

Why were the appeals granted?

image.thumb.png.46de9ac4aef4f6f32dd9368ee3e811ef.png

image.png.e257e7f719441be24c25e49fc9df5975.png

 

 

They aren't "appeals."  Apparently anyone at any time can apply for removal from a particular flood zone, but they come most often after FEMA revises flood maps.

https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/change-your-flood-zone/loma-lomr-f

This is an example of such an Amendment/Removal. https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/11-06-3437A-480419.pdf?LOC=74f39c316f21aa289bece6f31ba64320

If you have the patience, you can dig through all the Kerr County Unincorporated Areas LOMAs here.  https://msc.fema.gov/portal/advanceSearch#searchresultsanchor

And, I'm not surprised that it occurs mostly in high-value whiteyville.  I very seriously doubt there's anything preferential going on, but this is exactly the kind of thing that wealthy white Americans know to do that poorer and browner ones don't because they have been excluded for so long.

Edited by TwiceHorn
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Been thinking the same thing someone else said..I sure hope the dads are getting organized to hold accountability at every level and not just Mystic, because if losing your child is still not enough to flip your political switch away from this madness then I’m shoving Brisket out of the way as I run past him off the ledge. 

raises hand

question for surl lawyers

can the mystic parents form a class and sue as a class for defamation?

Posted

the floodplain redactions news took about 8 hours today to work it's magic

wfaa abc dallas just reported the redactions and sandcrabbed over to a funeral procession with at least 2000 cells recording the parade / circus / procession

then moved right in to "woe is kerrsville", "hunt proud", i heart hill country tshirts, THEN cry cry cry they put the kerrville mayor on for 10 seconds from a presser, he says 2 words, his eyes water, then over to the trumpanzee and wheels presser, questioners are evil losers then a montage of dead baby girl pics - look at all these flowers!

  • Rage+1 3
Posted
56 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

They aren't "appeals."  Apparently anyone at any time can apply for removal from a particular flood zone, but they come most often after FEMA revises flood maps.

I mean ...maybe you know something the AP doesn't but it's not an appeal in court, it's an appeal to a the federal agency to reconsider their decision. The article is substituting the word "appeal" in place of "Letter Requesting a Change to the Flood Insurance Rate Map." Is that not acceptable? The article discusses that it's not an easy process and quotes the Director of the Tx Floodplain Mgt Assoc.

"Property owners challenging FEMA’s map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a “pretty arduous process” that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers.

Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA’s flood plain by the camp’s revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected."

 

Posted
7 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

somewhere in the content maelstrom from the past week was a comment from a woman in her 40s who was a 4-year mystic alum from the early 80s

she said something to the effect of "she remembered the long-time mystic maintenance man, __________, (she remembered his name) who would take a chair down to the floodplain and watch the river every time it rained at night"

i continue to maintain that this was not a "100-year" event, that it happens every 10-15 years, and the institutional memory of the locals which knew this, died off before the turn of the century 

But, but the Orange and the Gnome said it was a '1 in more than 1000 years' event, and nobody's ever seen anything like it or could have known it was possible.

Posted
4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Apparently at this point a "100 year" event is >50% likely in any given 10-15 year period.

Your math maths. The other factor is the assumptions underlying how much rainfall is considered a 100, or a 500, year event. If rain falls more heavily (as climate scientists have been saying) in 2025, than it did for the years upon which those benchmarks were established, then those flood plain maps are likely behind the times.

I know Austin updated their flood maps maybe seven years ago, give or take. Part of the reason for the update was construction. More impervious cover, more run off. But, the premise that heavier rain falls more frequently was also a part of the matrix.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, wood said:

nobody … could have known it was possible.

And this is why electing the dimmest and  most servile to cult thought makes not only for the worst leaders, but also the most disastrous.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Let's be honest, getting flood insurance on a property NOT in the 100-year flood plain (like my house for years before it seemed pretty obvious I wouldn't experience a flood) is cheaper than getting flood insurance on a property IN a flood plain.  These camp owners didn't necessarily need to be trying to ditch insurance altogether, but just make it less expensive.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Yep. A "100 year" event is >50% to happen in any given 69 year period. 500 year event in a 347 year period. 

Or, if you’re in Houston, in three straight years.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

I mean ...maybe you know something the AP doesn't but it's not an appeal in court, it's an appeal to a the federal agency to reconsider their decision. The article is substituting the word "appeal" in place of "Letter Requesting a Change to the Flood Insurance Rate Map." Is that not acceptable? The article discusses that it's not an easy process and quotes the Director of the Tx Floodplain Mgt Assoc.

"Property owners challenging FEMA’s map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a “pretty arduous process” that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers.

Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA’s flood plain by the camp’s revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected."

 

Well, it's not very arduous if they grant 90% of them.  Regardless, I laid out all the salient information right there in my post.

Posted
3 hours ago, texas08 said:

How can any of those Kerr county “officials” sleep at night?

Did any of them die in the floods?

Apparently some of them are taking early morning jogs at 3AM.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
7 hours ago, GenXer said:


The article raises questions 

IMG_3952.thumb.jpeg.418c6f2c1f63a08c987bc8c5236d214c.jpeg

 

When were these appeals filed?

Why were the appeals granted? For what reasons?

 

@Chopper answered this above. I was going to copy the same thing. Compliments.

 

 

7 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Ever watch that movie Bernie? Wouldn't shock me that the most popular dude in town, who has helped hundreds of people and would give you the shirt off his back, could also be capable of a shady dealing or two. Humans are multifaceted.

Nice neighbor. Quiet guy. Kept to himself. I never had any trouble with him.

 

 

7 hours ago, GenXer said:


That AP article describes a 100 year event as something that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Calling something a 100 year or 500 year event apparently is just a way to dumb down statistics.

The annual odds are a non-starter. There's a 100% chance that a killing flood will happen there. There was a guy, curiously named Harry Truman, who would not leave Mt. St. Helen because it had never erupted in his lifetime. He ended up under 40 feet of mud.

I clicked a link in the NYT article: (I know that I'm covering @Hagbard Celine territory, but maybe this makes it more vivid.)

image.png.70691776a0d414c45a5079c9adaa95d4.png

Quote

It was 1932, just six years after Camp Mystic opened, when an early July rain began falling on the Texas Hill Country around the Guadalupe River.

At first, it was a “lovely, gentle rain,” one person said at the time. But the rain intensified, and the river quickly swirled past its banks, sending churning floodwaters through the idyllic girls camp. Archived news clips from that week describe campers rushing to safety, some shedding tears as they watched some of the camp’s cabins — and their possessions — swept away.

They survived, but were left stranded without food, forced to eat fish that had been tossed up by the floodwaters. 

image.png.83656dccb13cc0bbd93c283fa2818354.png

image.png.2df930871effc197c44a3567227fe7eb.png

image.png.757e8b8c8d548d5e401a18a8db1ed1d3.png

Thank goodness we only get tropical storms once every hundred years.

image.thumb.png.aaac3d2a8971818b61516b9b83d08972.png

 

 

image.png.9c60c332400fd9671e771c8b45f91f3a.png

 

image.png.6ae94016258b2d412e6ab59b517061fe.png

Here's the final paragraph of the above and the next header:

image.thumb.png.84a7935a5b2d67f22570185c53cd9bab.png

 

3 hours ago, texas08 said:

How can any of those Kerr county “officials” sleep at night?

Did any of them die in the floods?

Not nearly enough.

 

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the floodplain redactions news took about 8 hours today to work it's magic

wfaa abc dallas just reported the redactions and sandcrabbed over to a funeral procession with at least 2000 cells recording the parade / circus / procession

then moved right in to "woe is kerrsville", "hunt proud", i heart hill country tshirts, THEN cry cry cry they put the kerrville mayor on for 10 seconds from a presser, he says 2 words, his eyes water, then over to the trumpanzee and wheels presser, questioners are evil losers then a montage of dead baby girl pics - look at all these flowers!

Teddy bears and a lone couple hugging and weeping? Of course there were. It's the Tragedy Template! School shootings, natural disasters, wherever people get killed and survivors are sad. It's news!

I scowled when I wrote this song

Sue me if it plays to long

Those sisters are free...

https://youtu.be/iac-vLq6tnY

Deacon Blues, Steely Dan

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, it's not very arduous if they grant 90% of them.  Regardless, I laid out all the salient information right there in my post.

I'm guessing that 90% are approved because only the wealthy entities can afford to gather the paperwork. Combo of CYA for FEMA and having rich friends.

I'm not contesting anything in your post, my friend.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

@Chopper answered this above. I was going to copy the same thing. Compliments.

 

 

Nice neighbor. Quiet guy. Kept to himself. I never had any trouble with him.

 

 

The annual odds are a non-starter. There's a 100% chance that a killing flood will happen there. There was a guy, curiously named Harry Truman, who would not leave Mt. St. Helen because it had never erupted in his lifetime. He ended up under 40 feet of mud.

I clicked a link in the NYT article: (I know that I'm covering @Hagbard Celine territory, but maybe this makes it more vivid.)

image.png.70691776a0d414c45a5079c9adaa95d4.png

image.png.83656dccb13cc0bbd93c283fa2818354.png

image.png.2df930871effc197c44a3567227fe7eb.png

image.png.757e8b8c8d548d5e401a18a8db1ed1d3.png

Thank goodness we only get tropical storms once every hundred years.

image.thumb.png.aaac3d2a8971818b61516b9b83d08972.png

 

 

image.png.9c60c332400fd9671e771c8b45f91f3a.png

 

image.png.6ae94016258b2d412e6ab59b517061fe.png

Here's the final paragraph of the above and the next header:

image.thumb.png.84a7935a5b2d67f22570185c53cd9bab.png

Thnx for posting. Maybe the craziest post I've ever seen.

We are living in alternative universe.

I'm ashamed for myself that I live in the same state as these people.  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
On 7/11/2025 at 10:27 PM, Da Fino said:

This is the second night in a row that I have been watching movies with my kids on Disney plus and a Blue Alert has killed the app to tell us about this guy in the opposite side of the state from us. The event was a week ago. This has to be on purpose to make us hate alerts. I can’t imagine another scenario 

They just did it again. 10:30 at night. In Spanish also the time. They are trolling. 

Posted

Everyone failed these girls. Not just the camp, or county, or state.  Also, devastatingly, one of the girls that was killed had been safe, but bolted out for a keepsake. 

  • Rage+1 2
Posted (edited)

I am not trying to stir the pot but when was the last time you wore a baseball hat to an indoor event/memorial?  I was born in 75' and my parents didn't grow up wealthy but ball caps inside or at an event would have been seen as white trash.

Edited by Cousin Strawberry
spelling
Posted
11 hours ago, C-Man said:

Ugh, this is not a good look for Mystic — or the powers-that-be. Pretty certain powerful Mystic connections greased a few wheels to get this done time and time again.

Hed: FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show

https://apnews.com/article/texas-flood-camp-mystic-map-records-investigation-e12bee8d5f88301363861ca12c19b929?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR641lzvK9L8pr0mUbZmM58Hko0lyiW91YaiuymClSDaONGNn8BcocdvtI6iag_aem_lBuTHt__iEeZCfaKsWPxvA#wnv79s3henrwohu42coulr4hvw3aeqgrw

Explain what this means.  I was under the impression it meant you weren’t eligible for federal flood insurance if you build within those boundaries not that you can’t build at all is that not the case?



×
×
  • Create New...