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35 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Jesus Christ, if that's all it took I personally would have invaded Ukraine 10 years ago if it meant I didn't have use any Oracle products again.

but SAP is staying to help degrade Russian production.

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49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If true, would be hilarious that Xi fucked him by delaying the war long enough to confine everything to roads because the fields were full of mud.

Well, if there is anyone playing long game here, it’s the Chinese. If the invasion works two weeks later, your still tight, but also delay the offensive just long enough that if it historic we sure patterns hold and it  fails, your Mad Max in Road Warrior:

Xi Jinping to Putin now? “let’s discuss how much of my country you still mistakenly have Russians living on.”

Edited by Bateshorn
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2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So we should be loading up on equity positions?

Selling in late January/February 2020 turned out to be a really bad move unless you also knew that the market would bottom in late March.

No one fucking knows. You can't tell the future. We could all be vaporized in nuclear war in a week, or Vlad could decide to pull back in light of what's happening.

Yep, in 2 decades I've pulled ALL my money once - Covid, March 2020.  As a physician I felt I knew things - I pulled out 48 hours before ncaa etc was cancelled.  I didn't get back in at the bottom - I, rather luckily, got back in about 10% below where I pulled my money.  I'll never try to time shit again.  Not to mention you pay cap gains when you yank your stocks.  Reality is I'll probably die with 90% of my shit invested, as I don't need that money.  So unless you really need the funds soon...do NOT try to time the market.  

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1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Haven’t seen this posted, but what company this is:

 

Ok, fascism is defined as state direction of market economy, nationalism and authoritarianism. The truth of the matter is that the two biggest fascist nations (they would never admit is) are Russia and PRC (they both gave up on international socialism long ago). (The PRC, with its racial internment camps, are the closest or he Nazis). 

Edited by statsman
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2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:


From that thread - from an interview with Viktor Surorov. He's a former Soviet GRU officer.

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Pretty sure myself and some other dummies from around these parts were saying the same shit.  Putin is uberfucked and a big part is those billionaires who are losing hundreds of millions.  Pat on back.  Makes up for my fucktarded ideas on anyone flying F16's and lighting up the rooskies.  I can still dream though. 

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8 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Saw an account that indicated that apparently a Uke M-29 took down a SU-35?  If so, this is amazing, as the much newer thrut-vectoring 35 outperforms the older 29 in virtually every performance category.  Not sure if verified.

MiG-17 and 19 say hi from sunny Indochina.

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8 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

India? Really?

Pakistan is really a client state of China, so India is kind of a client state of Russia.  They have even jointly developed weapons together.

That said, I believe the relationship is more of convenience than actually affinity or alignment.  Nevertheless, I think they felt politically bound to abstain.  It's telling that they didn't vote against.

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5 hours ago, Auto Driller said:

A lot of speculation has centered around the idea that Putin didn’t know the weakness of the military (particularly logistics) and is now scrambling to figure out a solution. I actually think he did know these things and planned around them. The idea was that he would mass an invasion force on all sides to scare them into submission. Throw in a couple of go-fast spec ops raids on airports and government HQ and he would never have to send the armor at all, thus negating their biggest weakness and preserving the myth of overwhelming strength. The problem was that the Ukrainians decided to fight back and he was forced to do it the “conventional” way. Now he’s trying to figure out how to fight a war while also telling the population that no such war exists. In the age of social media…pretty tough to pull this off.

The Ukrainians also had 8 years of studying the Russians and their equipment up close, and 8 years of planning for an invasion, and they were ready by the time it was clear that Russia was up to something (well before February).

It's easy for us to look back with hindsight and say that Putin was going to do this after annexing Crimea, but a lot of the Ukrainian leadership apparently assumed the Russians were going to do this after Crimea and began planning for it.

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Interesting comment, and he has has a legit background.  I still question. the high-end number, but it's clear they are hitting a lot of vehicles, a lot of convoys.

I would not be surprised if they've killed 2,000 - 3,000 or so, and have injured twice that many.  And they've also captured a lot more in a week than were captured in all of 1979-1989 in Afghanistan (then again, easier to surrender to Ukrainians than the Taliban/Mujahideen).

 

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These Ukrainian folks appear hardworking, intelligent, resourceful and competent.  And yet their government had been one of the worst in Europe.  Why?  Seems the one precludes the other.

Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world—alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

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16 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

MiG-17 and 19 say hi from sunny Indochina.

Anyone can get caught looking the wrong way, and all the air show stuff is cool if you can point the nose and or get an off bore sight shot off, but energy is still energy, and if you cash a lot of it in and miss you’re fairly screwed.

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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So in a showdown of "Whose Bonds are Shittiest?"...it's a battle between Ukraine and Russia right now?  Got it.  

Imma go ahead and back the Yellow & Blue for now.

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3 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

I’m really curious if the chans haven’t gone through the various reconnaissance photo showing damaged tanks, vehicles, etc and actually applied to old school satellite/photo reconnaissance formulas used in prior engagements and tried to come up with a better best guess of current casualties.
I know some of the multipliers/weights may be a bit out of date with the newer technology, but I would love to see a real ballpark not one released by either side.

There are several groups of OSINT types who are datamining everything - photos, videos, various reports, etc., and who are tracking things like specific types of vehicles, where the vehicles were hit/destroyed/surrendered/abandoned/etc.

We are talking about if you sent them a photo that showed 3 T-72s were destroyed today, they won't say "this photo shows 3 T-72s that were destroyed" it's "a T-72aR3, a T-72bK13, and a T-72br549 were destroyed at coordinates 43289890543.00 325945343.32", and they are logging all of that information.

And the bigger thing that their efforts are helping with in terms of getting down to specific model information, is that they are pointing out shit that is destroyed/captured was only in Russian service, entered service a year ago, or in 1989 or whatever,, and therefore was not Ukrainian, etc.  They also track airplane tail #s, etc. It's being used to track specific Russian units, but also showing that older stuff is being called into the fight, showing the Russians are a bit desperate.

This guy tweets out a lot of photos/videos, asking for people to help geolocate stuff, and I've seen some of the OSINT type tracking this stuff piggy-backing off of him (or he is off of them).

https://twitter.com/RALee85

 

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3 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

I’m really curious if the chans haven’t gone through the various reconnaissance photo showing damaged tanks, vehicles, etc and actually applied to old school satellite/photo reconnaissance formulas used in prior engagements and tried to come up with a better best guess of current casualties.
I know some of the multipliers/weights may be a bit out of date with the newer technology, but I would love to see a real ballpark not one released by either side.

Actually RALee just tweeted one out - this is one of the groups that is tracking very specific information that helps present a solid picture of just what is happening.

And just to be clear, the way they publish this information:, when they say 7 T-72B: (1, destroyed), (2, destroyed), etc. the numbers in () refers to #1 tank destroyed, #2 tank destroyed, #3 tank captured and then destroyed, #4 tank abandoned, etc., and not 1 tank destroyed 2 tanks destroyed, etc.

And obviously the flags refer to when they entered service (under Soviets or Russian Federation).

Here's the full breakdown, but the twitter image below is more concise.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

FM4vUq1XoAcj85R?format=png&name=900x900

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Actually RALee just tweeted one out - this is one of the groups that is tracking very specific information that helps present a solid picture of just what is happening.

And just to be clear, the way they publish this information:, when they say 7 T-72B: (1, destroyed), (2, destroyed), etc. the numbers in () refers to #1 tank destroyed, #2 tank destroyed, #3 tank captured and then destroyed, #4 tank abandoned, etc., and not 1 tank destroyed 2 tanks destroyed, etc.

And obviously the flags refer to when they entered service (under Soviets or Russian Federation).

Here's the full breakdown, but the twitter image below is more concise.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

FM4vUq1XoAcj85R?format=png&name=900x900

 

Thanks for clarifying that - the numbers didn’t make much sense at first.

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2 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I need this to last until football season. 

As a football fan, i agree. As a parent watching children get murdered, I want to say fuck you prick. I will settle on this.... I hope this ends fast with Ukraine citizens safe and I hope the televised torture of the perpetrator last till football season.

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10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

These Ukrainian folks appear hardworking, intelligent, resourceful and competent.  And yet their government had been one of the worst in Europe.  Why?  Seems the one precludes the other.

Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world—alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

It doesn't help Ukraine that the City of Austin isn't included in that group.

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Just now, HOOKEM4 said:

As a football fan, i agree. As a parent watching children get murdered, I want to say fuck you prick. I will settle on this.... I hope this ends fast with Ukraine citizens safe and I hope the televised torture of the perpetrator last till football season.

I am very much pro Ukraine and yeah I agree. I probably shouldn’t have made the half assed attempt at humor. 

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14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

These Ukrainian folks appear hardworking, intelligent, resourceful and competent.  And yet their government had been one of the worst in Europe.  Why?  Seems the one precludes the other.

Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world—alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

Given that this all kicked off in part (or at least the Maydan Revolution stuff) due to a convicted Russian-leaning stooge being put into power through Russian fuckery, it should not be a surprise.

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Thanks for clarifying that - the numbers didn’t make much sense at first.

Yeah in a preface to the massive list at https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html they do mention this:

Quote

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, munitions, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into discerning the status of equipment as captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. ATGMs and MANPADS are included in the list but not included in the ultimate count. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991.

And if you click on the # in (), you'll get a link to something like this:

https://postlmg.cc/cg2NH6mc

They aren't one of the groups tracking geolocation stuff, but there are groups that are.

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13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

These Ukrainian folks appear hardworking, intelligent, resourceful and competent.  And yet their government had been one of the worst in Europe.  Why?  Seems the one precludes the other.

Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world—alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

It’s the leaders. Basically every ruling party has been corrupt since independence in 1993, whether they were primarily based out of the west or east. It’s a huge issue in each political campaign. They’ve had two massive protest movements this century, in both 2004 and 2014. The guy who won the election prior to Zelensky was Peroshenko, a billionaire oligarch. Part of the reason for his support was the thought he was already too rich to be corrupted, which is not actually how that stuff works.

It’s why Zelensky decided to leave his career as an actor/comedian. Think about this. He’s a primarily Russian speaker whose greatest popularity is from the Russian speaking part of the country, in a nation where 2/3s of the voters are Ukraine speakers first, yet he won 73% of the vote (aside from corruption, he also campaigned on more productive dialogue with Russia). 

The people of Ukraine have been risking their lives on the biggest of scales multiple times trying to fight corruption. Their leadership has abandoned them at every turn. 

The hope has always been by leaning towards the EU they’ll be forced to reduce corruption simply to get in. 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I've posted this article a few times, it's from last November, but it has applied quite well to the lack of movement and what seems to be Russians not being able to get far from their supply depots.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

If y'all haven't read this, you should. It's an excellent article and the author nailed it in November. Thanks for the link @atomheartbevo

The Russians didn't have enough trucks, even before the Ukrainians started turbo-fucking their supply lines.

There is no way now for them to fix it and it's going to get worse and worse as the Ukrainians keep knocking off supply convos.  

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

If true, would be hilarious that Xi fucked him by delaying the war long enough to confine everything to roads because the fields were full of mud.

That is going to be the most expensive women's skating gold medal in history.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I've posted this article a few times, it's from last November, but it has applied quite well to the lack of movement and what seems to be Russians not being able to get far from their supply depots.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Scroll down to this paragraph:

"Russia’s truck logistic support, which would be crucial in an invasion of Eastern Europe, is limited by the number of trucks and range of operations. "

All those trucks idling in that 40-mile convoy?  They are burning up a shitload of fuel keeping warm.  They are not making back-and-forth trips getting supplies to the troops and other vehicles in the front.

For all intents and purposes, the longer those trucks sit there in that convoy, the more they resemble not-so-portable storage units that aren't keeping the troops in combat supplied.

And every truck destroyed means another truck has to make that truck's capacity up by running extra trips.

I got one, too.  National Review article, no poltics whatsoever, one of the best medium-survey analyses I've seen so far.  Very understandable.  Worth the read.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-the-russians-are-struggling/

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54 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

 the financial sector is probably the best protected of all industries because it has spent billions in preventing cyber fraud.

“Other industries definitely at risk from attack,” Lin said. “I think the water utility companies could be a weak spot as they’re not known for their cybersecurity.”

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