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2020 Rain Thread

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Looks like we may be getting our first chance at storms this Friday, especially for SE Texas.  Those of us here in the Houston area and further into the Arklatex need to watch our cornholes.  From Jeff Lindner:
Severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of SE TX Friday evening into early Saturday morning.

All severe weather modes will be possible.

A powerful upper level storm system will dig into the SW US and then sweep across TX Friday and Friday night. Ahead of this system a robust and highly sheared warm sector air mass will develop Thursday into Friday. Air mass will undergo rapid modification from the current dry and cold to warm and moist by late Friday. As the upper level trough begins to move toward TX late this week, a surface cold front and associated surface low pressure system will develop over the southern plains. Moisture transport on a powerful low level jet by Friday morning is impressive over SET X with 40-60kts at 850mb and PWS rising into the 1.5 inch range. High temperatures warming into the mid to maybe upper 70’s along with the influx of a “Gulf” air mass will support modest instability for this time of year with CAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg across the region by late afternoon. It should be noted that “cool” season severe weather outbreaks along the Gulf coast tend to not need as much instability as similar systems in the Spring and significant severe weather and tornadoes have occurred with similar setups in the past (especially over LA, MS, AL). Elevated mixed layer (cap) will advect ENE across SE TX from northern MX during the day Friday and this should prevent much activity across the developing warm sector for much of the morning into the early afternoon hours. Warm sector air mass will become highly sheared by Friday afternoon with a strong low level jet in place over SE TX with winds turning with height into the 700mb and 500mb levels.

Main question for Friday afternoon is does the cap waken enough to allow discrete cells to develop across the warm sector…and this potential looks possible along and north of I-10 and more likely north of HWY 105. Any discrete cells that can develop and break the capping inversion Friday afternoon will have plenty of low level wind shear in place for damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong surface winds of 25-35mph will be in place across the region Friday afternoon and evening with the strong low level jet overhead…and some of this stronger wind energy will mix down in any showers or storms that form.

Cap looks to erode fairly quickly Friday evening as strong linear forcing approaches from the WNW along an advancing cold front. Squall line is likely to develop and sweep across much of the region. Main threat will likely be the potential for wind damage as strong winds aloft may be transported to the surface in the line. Additionally bowing segments along the line could produce wind damage and isolated tornadoes. All severe modes will be possible, but wind damage is looking the most likely with the profiles in place.

SPC has outlooked most areas north of I-10 for an enhanced risk of severe weather for late Friday.

Storm system will be progressive and will quickly sweep across the region. Rainfall amounts look to average 1-2 inches with the greatest amounts toward Lake Livingston and lesser amounts toward Matagorda Bay.

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Ever since PHD stopped posting it's stopped raining in Central Texas, specifically Bee Cave. Thanks a lot, jerk.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Jim Spencer getting slightly aroused at the thought of tornadoes in Central Texas?

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I wouldn’t mind if a surprise tornado took out the Godzillatron and swept Bob Cole away with it.

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Jim Spencer getting slightly aroused at the thought of tornadoes in Central Texas?

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I assume Spencer is feverishly masturbating but I’m assuming we get nada. Meteorologists shoot their wads early 

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The Enhanced Risk area keeps shifting south and west, and now they've added a Moderate Risk (2nd highest level) for Longview, Texarkana, and northern LA.

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23 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Significant Risks.  Jim Spencer.  Tornados in January??

PHD makes his long awaited return in 3, 2, 1....

Paging Mr @phdhorn, you have a telephone call at the front desk!

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Normally I think if this type stuff as clickbait for tv stations. 

But this is NWS/noaa and Octobers events make me nervous.  But what are the odds of a repeat? 

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When is the hail supposed to hit Houston? Would prefer our new car be home in the garage whenever that happens.

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Dammit, Phd isn't even going to make a cameo appearance for this one?!!!!  Somebody needs to put out the bat signal!

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2 hours ago, Okie State said:

When is the hail supposed to hit Houston? Would prefer our new car be home in the garage whenever that happens.

Its going to rain tomorrow night. 

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2 hours ago, Okie State said:
10 hours ago, Continental Op said:
Solid humblebrag

Ha, by new I mean used. Just not ready for it to get smashed up quite yet.

I am intentionally not taking delivery of my new-to-me whip today for this reason.  It will suck to have to pick up a new car, freshly detailed, drive it home in the rain, and put it in the garage.

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The Arklatex Surly really need to watch their cornholes today.  And the hail threat has shifted west to include the Hill Country and Central Texas areas. 

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I've had one of these bad boys for 2 years now (truck doesnt fit in the garage).  Ill get'er out this afternoon.  Yes, they work great. 

 

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Spent about an hour trying to polish my headlight lenses last night because they’re starting to look like shit. Also have a crack in my windshield. Think I’ll drive my front wheels onto the tallest ramp I can find, facing directly into the wind, and kill two birds with one hail storm. Wish me luck!

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1 hour ago, chesthair said:

I've had one of these bad boys for 2 years now (truck doesnt fit in the garage).  Ill get'er out this afternoon.  Yes, they work great. 

 

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Lulz, what is this glorious thing called?

 

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1 minute ago, boknowstecmo said:

I mean, the name is in the photo. 

 

https://hailprotector.com/

They are in Gunter, TX, just up the road from my house.  My son and I look like a nascar pit crew putting the thing up.  Yes, its fucked up looking but works as advertised.  There are dozens of them in my neighborhood now...i should get a commission. 

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31 minutes ago, chesthair said:

They are in Gunter, TX

Funny name for a town.  Vic is a gunter.

Anyways, DFW NWS last night compared today's predicted atmospheric setup with Dec. 26, 2015.  That produced the Garland/Rowlett tornado that blew cars off of I-30 and killed 13.  Hopefully the cloud cover doesn't burn off today, reducing the heating that would fuel the storms.

Squall line may move more slowly than predicted through east Texas, with wind and tornado risk continuing well after midnight. NE Texas in the bullseye.

Cap currently expected to hold in SE Texas, but if it does break this afternoon they could see possible supercells form east of the squall line.  

 

Timing map and FAQ:

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full8.jpg?c825670b3ebe5920e2a341d5dfaf10df

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full3.jpg?b645737ba8388c19eb16333468828f6c

tl;dr:  The DFW NWS says don't worry about what risk zone you're in, prepare to die.

Edited by clapclapclap

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16 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Fucking tornadoes in January? Go home Texas.


Is Jonas Miller en route?

I guess it's better than having them the day after Christmas.  

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34 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Fucking tornadoes in January? Go home Texas.


Is Jonas Miller en route?

You're never safe...except in August when the gods laugh at us begging for a thunderstorm.

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