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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


LTtxfan

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I think somehow the Fucked 8 regroup, add a couple of schools and soldier on for a little while. FOX needs inventory and while it doesn't have a lot of value the conference could provide some of that inventory. I doubt it would keep a seat at any big boy table but with expanded playoffs looming it might do for a decade or so. No telling what the landscape will look like then. Errbody just going to have to tighten their belts and do a reality check. 

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4 minutes ago, Okie State said:

Someone should tell us why the PAC/B1G/ACC should/should not add the Big 12 leftovers.

Because they add very little revenue but increase costs.  Why would existing PAC schools agree to reduced distributions and increased travel costs and time?  PAC expansion into the Big 12 only made sense when Texas and OU were involved.  

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Just now, Js1 said:

I mean, that's not *it*

Tech's allure might be a nationally relevant baseball program (lol Stanford though), a TBD basketball program that could still be solid if Adams does well without Beard, and a solid MTN program.  I guess maybe T&F is solid too. 

Football - sucks
Volleyball - terrible
Softball - super bad
WBB - ain't the 90s anymore and Marsha Sharp ain't walking through the door

I do forget they have a solid baseball team, but holy shit. Maybe basketball won't be totally in the toilet without Beard. That's a huge risk for the PAC, tho. 

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Because they add very little revenue but increase costs.  Why would existing PAC schools agree to reduced distributions and increased travel costs and time?  PAC expansion into the Big 12 only made sense when Texas and OU were involved.  
It was a joke.
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24 minutes ago, alincoln said:

An expanded Big 12 including some smattering of shit strikes me as the most likely solution until the Great Shakeup occurs.  

Without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12, regardless of the number of members, will no longer be a "Power 5" conference.  They can add Cincinnati, Houston, UCF or whomever, but they will still be looking at $10M - $12M per school when they redo their TV deal (or whatever amount is around 25% or less than the Power 4).  Any Big 12 school that can get to a Power 4 conference can, and will, do so as quickly as possible before the music stops and there are no seats available.

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Tech and OSU should whatever the fuck is necessary, including butt stuff, to get into the PAC-12. The Big 12 is dead. A new big 12 with more shitty teams and/or joining the shit AAC is like 7-9 million a school. That is down from 37 million. Imagine cutting 80% of your athletic budget. 

Tier 1 rights are not the same as Athletics budgets. Tech had a budget of $93 million last year, so it would be a little under 1/3. Still a very painful haircut but nowhere near 80%.  

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Just now, Spider2YBanana said:

I do forget they have a solid baseball team, but holy shit. Maybe basketball won't be totally in the toilet without Beard. That's a huge risk for the PAC, tho. 

The Conference of Champions are going to dilute their brand with expanding via Big 12-4 programs.  

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The Conference of Champions are going to dilute their brand with expanding via Big 12-4 programs.  

They will if TV says they will pay the Pac more $ for adding one or more of these schools.  If not, they won't.

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The only reason the PAC12 should add anybody is if they think they will eventually be FORCED to get to 16, 18 or 2 as part of a new playoff system with only 4 conferences.  If so they would be wise to grab the best 4 Big 12 schools and call it a day.  Tech, TCU, OSU and KU would be better than taking Fresno State, BYU, Boise and Wyoming down the road.

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18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, that's not *it*

Tech's allure might be a nationally relevant baseball program (lol Stanford though), a TBD basketball program that could still be solid if Adams does well without Beard, and a solid MTN program.  I guess maybe T&F is solid too.   Pac cares a lot about the non-rev/Olympics sports.

Football - sucks
Volleyball - terrible
Softball - super bad
WBB - ain't the 90s anymore and Marsha Sharp ain't walking through the door



Pac12 needs the biggest football schools they can get, Tech has 40k students a 60k seat stadium and unlike half of the PAC they will not be apathetic to their fb program.  They have a recent final four in basketball and baseball, and history with AZ/Utah/CU.  If the PAC with just have to get over their academics, would bring more eyeballs from a large university in an ever growing state in the Central time zone which is very important for their TV deal.  Tech would be a great growth candidate…the problem is the PAC12 may not have time for a growth candidate, they need a home run now and there isn’t anything like that out there for them.  IF (big if) they expand, Tech is their #1 choice imo.

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Tech and OSU are two of the top 3/4 programs out there for expansion. Both provide reasonable access to DFW. Both have higher upside than some existing PAC schools. And I think they have more give a damn. I’m not sure travel costs to Lubbock are that high. Their football programs may be better off in the PAC than the Big 12.

If they offer up unequal revenue and maybe significantly reduced, that can lessen the financial impact to the current PAC. The PAC is next to die. They won’t survive as is.

Future expansion is happening. Boise, BYU, CSU are the more local options.

Cincy and UCF are the biggest tickets but not reasonably open to the PAC.

So who do you choose?

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I can think of a few reasons the Pac might want to add Big 12 teams.

1. They can't even get Directv to carry their network as things are now. It's not a very forward-thinking reason, but it's a reason.

2. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the 12 team playoff will work, and dissolving the Big 12 eliminates any chance that the Big 12 gets an auto-bid. Makes it a lot more likely for the Pac to get multiple schools into the playoff.

3. The smaller schools in the Pac are probably leery of losing a few big programs to the Big 10 and might want to pre-emptively expand.

I don't think they will add anyone, though.

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21 hours ago, 'stache said:

No way that number is correct. It'll be a huge haircut, but come one, we're not going to make only $2 mil more than fucking Tulsa or East Carolina.

The number is likely correct and that is what OkStU is worth without having a bigger draw.  Find your way into a P5 (or P4 or whatever) and you'll be fine.  Stick with this Big 12 and the networks are going to show you what you're worth.  OkState would be the top draw in the Big 12... and push about 1/4 of the viewers of Texas or ou. How many viewers do you think you're driving? Translate that to dollars.  If OkState can get to 9MM as the lead dog, they are really big timing...  But you need a conference where you aren't.

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1 hour ago, Had Enough said:

Tech and OSU are two of the top 3/4 programs out there for expansion. Both provide reasonable access to DFW. Both have higher upside than some existing PAC schools. And I think they have more give a damn. I’m not sure travel costs to Lubbock are that high. Their football programs may be better off in the PAC than the Big 12.

If they offer up unequal revenue and maybe significantly reduced, that can lessen the financial impact to the current PAC. The PAC is next to die. They won’t survive as is.

Future expansion is happening. Boise, BYU, CSU are the more local options.

Cincy and UCF are the biggest tickets but not reasonably open to the PAC.

So who do you choose?

I grew up a Tech fan because my parents went there. I’m really going to miss that rivalry and out of all the Remaining 8, Tech is the one that I hope lands in a good spot the most. That said, in all the armchair analysis that’s been happening around the Internet the last few days, their TV numbers are shockingly low. Just anecdotally, they have a very low fan presence here in Houston. I’m afraid they may be in trouble. 

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Perhaps the remaining B12 ADs need to convince Nebraska to bolt for a reborn Big 8. Then the Huskers could again be the biggest fish in the football pond, and the other members could at least point to having a (former) powerhouse among their ranks. Maybe from Nebraska's perspective the perceived competitive advantage would offset enough of the revenue loss. Although I doubt it....

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13 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I grew up a Tech fan because my parents went there. I’m really going to miss that rivalry and out of all the Remaining 8, Tech is the one that I hope lands in a good spot the most. That said, in all the armchair analysis that’s been happening around the Internet the last few days, their TV numbers are shockingly low. Just anecdotally, they have a very low fan presence here in Houston. I’m afraid they may be in trouble. 

 

Tech needs to then make a joint bid w/ UH and try to sell it as a DFW (There's a lot of Tech folks there, right?) + Houston draw.

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7 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I grew up a Tech fan because my parents went there. I’m really going to miss that rivalry and out of all the Remaining 8, Tech is the one that I hope lands in a good spot the most. That said, in all the armchair analysis that’s been happening around the Internet the last few days, their TV numbers are shockingly low. Just anecdotally, they have a very low fan presence here in Houston. I’m afraid they may be in trouble. 

It may be an obvious point, but we've been pretty bad at football for most of the last decade.  It's 100% the fault of our leadership, but nonetheless, if any other Big 12 school just went though what we have in the last 11 years, i.e., a shocking and unexpected firing of a very popular and successful coach (for dubious reasons), followed by two terrible coaching hires and possibly a third (the jury's still out on Wells, but if nothing else, he was a budget minded hire), and whatever it's been - 6 or 7 non-winning seasons in the last 9 or so - those schools wouldn't have good viewership numbers either. The only exceptions to that would be OU and UT. And there's the difference. It's why I don't honestly think we're in any worse shape right now than we would've been if our football program was clearly on the upswing.

As a side note, now that we're good and fucked, I fully expect our football team will be a lot better this year. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, El Diablo said:

I think somehow the Fucked 8 regroup, add a couple of schools and soldier on for a little while. FOX needs inventory and while it doesn't have a lot of value the conference could provide some of that inventory. I doubt it would keep a seat at any big boy table but with expanded playoffs looming it might do for a decade or so. No telling what the landscape will look like then. Errbody just going to have to tighten their belts and do a reality check. 

Fox and ESPN split Big 12 TV revenue, right? Saving the Big 12 is completely in Fox’s hands. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Fox and ESPN split Big 12 revenue money right. Saving the Big 12 is completely in Fox’s hands. 

I believe that is correct. I suspect Fox will likely take a smaller content Saturday package moving forward and go all in on NFL. 

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2 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

I believe that is correct. I suspect Fox will likely take a smaller content Saturday package moving forward and go all in on NFL. 

It's probably the smarter investment, the way things look. The people who care about college sports will become even more regionalized than they already are as more schools get left out of leagues that matter and rivals stop playing games. The pieces of the pie get bigger, but the pie itself gets smaller.

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32 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Fox and ESPN split Big 12 TV revenue, right? Saving the Big 12 is completely in Fox’s hands. 

Doesn't Fox own the B1G network? They also have deals with the B1G and Pac. It would make sense for them to consolidate their content, just like ESPN just did.

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If Tech were AAU would that change anything much? Quite a bit of my family went to Tech and a few said the Alumni Association is hitting them up for donations. 
 

I guess if I am the remaining 8 I’m sending out requests to all the conferences and hoping for the best of the ones that respond. I find it hard to believe most don’t find a fairly decent home. 

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4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Doesn't Fox own the B1G network? They also have deals with the B1G and Pac. It would make sense for them to consolidate their content, just like ESPN just did.

I think tOSU/Big Ten gives them enough inventory for their Big Noon Kickoff. Far more people will watch Ohio State at Indiana than Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. 

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15 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

It's probably the smarter investment, the way things look. The people who care about college sports will become even more regionalized than they already are as more schools get left out of leagues that matter and rivals stop playing games. The pieces of the pie get bigger, but the pie itself gets smaller.

Keeping these players happy and sticking around is going to be a shitshow. Everyone is a free agent. There is no cap. no draft….and at least 30 others that can pay whatever it takes….basketball too. 
 

on one hand Im all for these kids making a dollar…but this is what the cost of freedom is. Its cool. It was fun. 

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54 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

I believe that is correct. I suspect Fox will likely take a smaller content Saturday package moving forward and go all in on NFL. 

Amazon wants in on the NFL, too. Someone gonna get left without a chair when the music stops. 

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Imagine if Beard had stayed and they had committed to paying Beard football money.  With the impending haircut they face we actually did them a solid by taking him, that debt, off their hands.  Just sayin.

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40 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Doesn't Fox own the B1G network? They also have deals with the B1G and Pac. It would make sense for them to consolidate their content, just like ESPN just did.

Fox owns 51% of the B1G network, the B1G Conference owns 49%, which is an interesting corporate setup. Sometimes they make sucky decisions, but overall it works, and the schools get paid...a lot

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3 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Imagine if Beard had stayed and they had committed to paying Beard football money.  With the impending haircut they face we actually did them a solid by taking him, that debt, off their hands.  Just sayin.

Also if we hadn't saved the conference 10 years ago how much poorer they'd be.

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16 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Fox owns 51% of the B1G network, the B1G Conference owns 49%, which is an interesting corporate setup. Sometimes they make sucky decisions, but overall it works, and the schools get paid...a lot

Yes they do. They also work well together on research. 

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20 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Imagine if Beard had stayed and they had committed to paying Beard football money.  With the impending haircut they face we actually did them a solid by taking him, that debt, off their hands.  Just sayin.

I don’t know, tech kind of has a history of not honoring coaching contracts (sovereign immunity!)

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27 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Imagine if Beard had stayed and they had committed to paying Beard football money.  With the impending haircut they face we actually did them a solid by taking him, that debt, off their hands.  Just sayin.

'TWould be interesting to know if Beard knew or at least had intel that this transition might happen.

 

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3 hours ago, slorch said:

'TWould be interesting to know if Beard knew or at least had intel that this transition might happen.

 

Doubt it. If they did their homework they knew about his lifestyle already. You dont disclose that type of stuff with coaches that party. 
 

still hilarious aggy went and leaked that shit. They’d rather hate money than play Texas again. 

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I think ESPN will be the key to the next move. I could see the ACC holding their nose and adding WVU since Notre Dame is a quasi-member. ESPN kicks in enough to cover WVU being added. The AAC can then try to pick off the better Big 12 remaining teams since they're also an ESPN property. That kills the GOR and gets Texas and OU to the SEC faster.

As far as the Pac 12, they can smuggly turn their nose up to Tech and oSu, but they'll remain an afterthought barring USC getting better. All it will take is one year of the SEC getting multiple teams in the new playoff for the Pac 12 to realize they really screwed up by their inaction...again. The Big 10 is basically Ohio State and maybe a rotating other team like Wisconsin or Penn State that could sneak into an expanded playoff. And they're fine with that. 

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34 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think ESPN will be the key to the next move. I could see the ACC holding their nose and adding WVU since Notre Dame is a quasi-member. ESPN kicks in enough to cover WVU being added. The AAC can then try to pick off the better Big 12 remaining teams since they're also an ESPN property. That kills the GOR and gets Texas and OU to the SEC faster.

As far as the Pac 12, they can smuggly turn their nose up to Tech and oSu, but they'll remain an afterthought barring USC getting better. All it will take is one year of the SEC getting multiple teams in the new playoff for the Pac 12 to realize they really screwed up by their inaction...again. The Big 10 is basically Ohio State and maybe a rotating other team like Wisconsin or Penn State that could sneak into an expanded playoff. And they're fine with that. 

Why would we dissolve the conference by joining the AAC? We’d lose out on the buyout money and take a massive loss of annual revenue. The latter will happen even if we stay together, but if we really aren’t invited to another P5, I’m pretty sure we’d stick together long enough to get the buyout money since our tv revenue is fucked either way. 

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21 hours ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Tech will be fine. All campuses, Medical Schools and Law School are well ahead of endowment targets. I think now that the gloves are off, we should go ahead and actively pursue amending the PUF. Of course, you all will see that as some kind of gotcha. Its not. You all can live well off your football money. The rest of the state can benefit from the PUF now. Seems like a win/win to me:) 

Sorry PUF’s closed. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Why would we dissolve the conference by joining the AAC? We’d lose out on the buyout money and take a massive loss of annual revenue. The latter will happen even if we stay together, but if we really aren’t invited to another P5, I’m pretty sure we’d stick together long enough to get the buyout money since our tv revenue is fucked either way. 

Because someone is going to blink and want to move away from the Big 12 before 2025 so they aren't left without a decent landing spot. The AAC is going to be attractive to some of the smaller programs in the Big 12. They already have a long term ESPN deal versus the Big 12 deal which will run out in 2025 and won't be renewed given 50%+ of the value of the conference is now gone. ESPN holds the key because I don't see Fox wanting to pay up when they have plenty of Big 10 and Pac 12 inventory and their two biggest Big 12 draws are going to be wholly owned ESPN properties. You'll get the Texas and OU buyout. You just won't get the rest of the Big 12 TV money after 2022. ESPN will have a say in how much they're paying. 

Edited by mdmost
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21 hours ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Tech will be fine. All campuses, Medical Schools and Law School are well ahead of endowment targets. I think now that the gloves are off, we should go ahead and actively pursue amending the PUF. Of course, you all will see that as some kind of gotcha. Its not. You all can live well off your football money. The rest of the state can benefit from the PUF now. Seems like a win/win to me:) 

Shit in one hand...

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27 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Why would we dissolve the conference by joining the AAC? We’d lose out on the buyout money and take a massive loss of annual revenue. The latter will happen even if we stay together, but if we really aren’t invited to another P5, I’m pretty sure we’d stick together long enough to get the buyout money since our tv revenue is fucked either way. 

 

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Because someone is going to blink and want to move away from the Big 12 before 2025 so they aren't left without a decent landing spot. The AAC is going to be attractive to some of the smaller programs in the Big 12. They already have a long term ESPN deal versus the Big 12 deal which will run out in 2025 and won't be renewed given 50%+ of the value of the conference is now gone. ESPN holds the key because I don't see Fox wanting to pay up when they have plenty of Big 10 and Pac 12 inventory and their two biggest Big 12 draws are going to be wholly owned ESPN properties. You'll get the Texas and OU buyout. You just won't get the rest of the Big 12 TV money after 2022. ESPN will have a say in how much they're paying. 

Everyone gets more money if they stay in the Big 12 until the buyouts are paid. This is what I meant yesterday when I said that I don't see any reason the remaining 8 wouldn't get the full buyouts. Either they wait it out and get them because there are no other options or they get them (and maybe a bit more) sooner as a negotiation ploy for relinquishing the Texas and OU GOR.

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