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Realignment talk not going away


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One thing I find unfortunate is that by leaving the Big XII and joining the SEC, UT and OU do strand some schools that in a perfect world would probably land in the Top 64.  It's not as if Ole Miss or Mississippi State or Vandy are historically more important than ISU or OSU or Tech or TCU.  (I'm ignoring Baylor.)  But, there's an inertia that comes along with already being members of that conference, and they're not going to get kicked out if everything coalesces into a Power 4.  It will not be a clean start.

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Isn’t one of the main reasons for this move the fact that college athletes are about to get paid and we need to be among the elites for recruiting?
That's among the reasons for sure, but anyone who has been paying attention could see the Big12 wasn't sustainable long term without adding some big names...who are just fine where they are now and feel no obligation to save a dying conference. Having said that, I'm pretty sure both UT and blowU didn't intend for this to go public quite this soon, aggy's attempt to blow it up might have done us (fans) a favor by speeding up the timeline of this actually being a done deal..at the initial cost of some short term money by breaking the LHN contract.
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The really amusing thing is that aggy has had a decade of being out from under our shadow to build their own identity.  And what have they done in that time?  They done everything they could to wrap their identity up with being a member of the SEC^3.

I'm sure psychologists could have a field day with that.

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6 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

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From FCB, so... No shit sherlock?

It's not a $150M loss. We'd collect on the SEC Network - less than $15M/year, but the gains would likely overcome the losses. Also, we've probably still got another year, so it will be less than 150. 

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8 minutes ago, ousux said:

What other school would endlessly pump conference over their own personal brand? It began before they even officially joined, a concerted effort by school admin, students and alumni..and both head coaches have been happy playing along.

It's hard for little brother to shake the little brother syndrome.  Their entire sense of self-worth is wrapped up in an association with something better.

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When I got in the truck a minute ago, the radio had Finebaum’s show. Before I could change the station, the caller started claiming OU was a perennial undeserved preseason top 10 that would finish no higher than 3rd in the SEC East, 4th in the West, and is about to get the shit kicked out of them by Kentucky on the reg. Then said Texas can barely put together a winning season and might be a bottom dweller. Finebaum didn’t correct him. LOL where are a mirror and a copy of the Texas-UGA SugarBowl when you need one?

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The crazy thing about A&M going so public with their opposition is there is no walking this back. The narrative will be they did everything they could to block this (which was not much apparently) and since the likelihood of this happening is so high they just look like complete idiots in the end. What a terrible strategy to just whine about this through the press. 

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1 minute ago, Murfdogg21 said:

When I got in the truck a minute ago, the radio had Finebaum’s show. Before I could change the station, the caller started claiming OU was a perennial undeserved preseason top 10 that would finish no higher than 3rd in the SEC East, 4th in the West, and is about to get the shit kicked out of them by Kentucky on the reg. Then said Texas can barely put together a winning season and might be a bottom dweller. Finebaum didn’t correct him. LOL where are a mirror and a copy of the Texas-UGA SugarBowl when you need one?

Well, you see, UGA didn't want to be there.  Neither did Mizzou, Utah, or most recently Colorado. 

Once you crack the code, it's easy to see why these bowl victories keep happening.

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2 minutes ago, ousux said:
3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:
Isn’t one of the main reasons for this move the fact that college athletes are about to get paid and we need to be among the elites for recruiting?

That's among the reasons for sure, but anyone who has been paying attention could see the Big12 wasn't sustainable long term without adding some big names...who are just fine where they are now and feel no obligation to save a dying conference.

Also, there is no use in battling against SEC bias anymore. Every year, without fail, the media tries to shoehorn in two SEC teams into the playoff. 1 loss, 2 loss, doesn't matter. They do backflips over it every year. Take a look at the proposed playoff expansion:

Quote

The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded one through four and each would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded five through 12 would play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team. (The team ranked #5 would host #12; team #6 would meet team #11; team #7 would play team #10; and team #8 would meet #9.) Under the proposal, the quarterfinals and semifinals would be played in bowl games. The championship game would continue to be at a neutral site, as under the current format.

The SEC conference champ will always have a 1-4 seed. That leaves 5-12 for them to try to place 2 or more additional SEC teams into the playoff.

Bottom line is that NIL has changed the recruiting and economic landscape and the coming playoff expansion will change the post-season landscape. Both of those changes greatly benefit the SEC. To sit around and wait for the Big 12 to finally do something assertive to improve its position in college football would be an absolute disaster of a choice. The Big 12 isn't going to help Texas and OU, so they said to hell with it and decided to help themselves.

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2025 makes no sense at all. What benefit does that give Ou or Texas? Big 12 is lame duck from perception stand point and won’t get any benefit of doubt 

This. Why break it now if it’s going to be a couple more years?
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I think it's sinking in for me how huge this is going to be. This is THE dominant national sports news story right now along with the Olympics. 

TEXAS and OKLAHOMA in the SEC. Just bananas. The gap between the SEC and whoever is 2nd - the B10 I guess - is going to be hilariously massive. 

The TV money, ratings, merchandise sales are going to be insane. The recruiting edge is going to be insane. Basically every weekend you are going to have a crazy slate of games in conference play. Some weekends are going to resemble a playoff slate in October or November. 

If this does happen - the fallout is going to be something to witness. There's going to be a mad dash from all the other "power" conferences to try and put together anything that can compete. 

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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

2025 makes no sense at all. What benefit does that give Ou or Texas? Big 12 is lame duck from perception stand point and won’t get any benefit of doubt 

Grant of rights expire in June, 2025. Of course, if 2 more teams find homes they could void it. 

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This move solidifies the SEC as the top conference after Saban is gone. After Urban left Florida and Cam Newton left Auburn, the sec has largely made its name on 1 team. As we’ve seen with Texas, Michigan, USC, etc. It’s more likely than not that they dip for a spell. Outside of Bama’s run under Saban they really have been just another conference that kept its reputation by what 1 team was doing. Remember in like 2014 when people were trying to say that when the first playoff rankings came out the top 4 should be bama, ole miss, miss st, and auburn? And then all 4 went on to lose their bowl games. 

Having Texas and OU there all but guarantees that after bamas dynasty fades, that collection of schools is still always the best conference, rather than comparable to the B1G or the old B12 or anyone else. 

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It takes 4 teams to sink the Grant of Rights. If KU & ISU get invited to the Big Whatever, or WVU & Okie Lite get invited to the Pac or ACC, then Texas is in the SEC faster than Ross Bjork can reverse mount a sheep.

Even after Texas joins the SEC, I will still carry the torch for the Horns going to the Big 10. I'll post about it every 6 moths or so. You won't like it, but you will get used to it. Some of you will eventually draw comfort from it. Then, one day, in a thread titled, "The 12 unexpected benefits of Playing Purdue and Indiana in November," I will Brazilian Porn Bomb this site to the Kuiper Belt. YOU WERE WARNED!!!

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9 hours ago, skilesare said:

The skilesare plan: Divisional Pod Structure for determining a Champion in a 16 team football conference. - Reviving this from the Pac 16 discussion years ago and find/replacing.

Too Long, Didn't Read:

1. Allow teams to play the schools in their 4 school region every year.
2. Allow teams to visit the other three regions once a year and have a team from the other 3 regions visit them once a year.
3. Codify the unstated law that 'the season is the playoff'.
4a. Reduce the chance of a championship rematch to below 20%.
4b. Eliminate the possibility of a rematch in a fair way.
4c. Create a fun, exciting new paradigm for conference post season that eliminates the possibility of a rematch in a fair and lucrative way.

I'm a nerd.  A big nerd.  I really like to think about the best way to crown champions in sports.  So when I say that this Pac 16 thing not happening hurts my soul.  It was like an entire imaginative side of my self was enticed by Lucy and then the ball was pulled away at the last second.  And then beat with a club.

I'm putting this out anyway in the hopes that one day the 16 team super conference will become a reality(Hello 2021) and the head of the competition committee will stumble upon this doing a google search.  Also to see if anyone is as crazy as me.

When doing something like this the media message is very important.  The 16 team WAC failed at this and their Quadrant system failed miserably and was confusing to fans.  The media message is this:

Win your division. Win your pod.  Play for the championship.

Here is how it works.  When each team is put in a pod and a divsion:

The Pods:

There are 4 regional pods.  This allows for the maintaining of long standing rivalries.

West:
Texas
Arkansas
OU
A&M

Gulf:
LSU
Missouri
Ole Miss
Miss St.

Central:
Alabama
Auburn
Tenn
Vanderbilt

East:
South Carolina
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia


The Divisions:

The two divisions will be rebalanced every two years to allow for both even competition and road trip diversity.  Each pod sends two teams to each division:

Cotton Division:
Texas
A&M
Missouri
Miss St.
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Florida

Sugar Division:
OU
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Tenn
Auburn
South Carolina
Georgia

A team plays every team in its pod and every team in its division.  Texas' schedule would look like this:

Arkansas
@OU
A&M
Missouri
@Miss St.
Alabama
@Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@Florida

In this structure Texas gets a road trip to each region every year.  This great for fans as well as for recruiting exposure. 

The following three scenarios can be used for determining a champion in the league:

A.  Traditional Divisional Champions:

After running this model 50,000 times through my computer, a rematch only occurs 19.94% of the time.  This is a 20% improvement over a straight-up 8 team division, play everyone in your division + 2 cross divisional games.  This is a pretty big deal as rematches are against the very core of college footballness.

B.  Alt-Championship:

In this model, the way to guarantee you get a spot in the championship game is to 'Win your Division and win your Pod.'  80% of the time your championship will not need to employ the alt championship rule.  In an alt-championship scenario, the traditional championship game would be a rematch.  The only way this can happen is if the team that won the other division was in the same pod as you.  

Say that Texas and OU both finished 8-1 in their division and there were no other 8-1 teams in the divisions.  Texas and OU compete in the East Pod.  Who won?  Was it a 3 way tie?  If so, only two teams are represented here so use the head to head tie breaker.  Say Texas won their pod. They stay in the championship game and OU is booted out for the next highest place finisher in the the Sugar Division that has not played Texas.  85% of the time this will be the 2nd place team.  This equates to about 3% of the seasons that a 3rd place finisher would end up in the title game.

C.  A new Paradigm.  The Championship weekend.

In this system you do not have one championship game.  You have 2.  The season can end in one of 5 ways.  3 of them are crown a conference champion very cleanly and make up occur in 97.6% of model seasons simulated

Type 1: 61.7%

The 2 divisional winners have not played each other and the 2 second-place winners have not played each other.  In this scenario, you play a Championship game and 3rd/4th place game.

Type 2: 15.6%

The 2 divisional winners have played already but neither has played the 2nd place team from the other league.  The 2 games consist of the Cotton Champ vs. Sugar 2nd and Sugar Champ vs. Cotton 2nd.  The team with the best record against the league after these games is the champion.  The extra 2 games give you the head-to-head ammo you need to break any ties.

Take the following example:

Cotton
---------
1. Missouri   (6-3) Division Record.  
2. Florida  (6-3) Division Record.  Defeated Miss St.
3. Miss St.    (6-3) Division Record.  Lost To Florida
4. Kentucky   (5-4) Overall Record.  Defeated Alabama
5. Alabama   (5-4) Overall Record.  Lost To Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt   (4-5) Division Record.  Defeated Texas
7. Texas  (4-5) Division Record.  Lost To Vanderbilt
8. A&M    (4-5) Division Record.  


Sugar
---------
1. LSU  (6-3) Record. 
2. South Carolina  (5-4) Overall Record.  Defeated Ole Miss
3. Ole Miss   (5-4) Overall Record.  Lost To South Carolina
4. Auburn  (4-5) Record. 
5. Florida State   (3-6) Division Record.  Defeated Tenn
6. Tenn   (3-6) Division Record.  Lost To Florida State
7. Oklahoma  (3-6) Division Record.  Defeated Arkansas
8. Arkansas  (3-6) Division Record.  Lost To Oklahoma

Gulf
---------
1. LSU   (2-1)  Alone in the Division.  
1. Missouri  (2-1) Defeated Miss St.
2. Miss St.  (2-1)  Lost To Missouri  
3. Ole Miss   (0-3) Record.  


Missouri would play South Carolina. and Florida would Play LSU.  If both LSU teams won, leaving two teams at 7-3, LSU would get the trophy because they beat Missouri during their pod play.

In this system, you can never take a week off because you never know when that game may end up being a de facto 'Championship' game.

Type 3:  20.36%

The top two teams haven't played so they play a championship game.  The second two teams have played so we have to break the tie between them and then go get a second team that the tie-winning team hasn't played.

Type 4: 2.02%

In this scenario, the top two teams have played and one of the divisional champs has played the 2nd place team in the other division.  We have to go down a rank and get a different team.  You then decide the champ like in Type 2.

Type 5: 0.2%

In this scenario, All of the 1st and 2nd place teams come from the same pod.  For example, Texas, OU finish 1st in their divisions, and A&M and Arkansas finish 2nd.  Here we just go down to the 3rd place teams to find a match for the Divisional champions.
I love the championship weekend.  I think it is lucrative for TV and really fun for fans.  It also removes the annoyance of rematches that have ruined a number of college football seasons. Plus, more quality football.

This could be so beautiful.  Three great road trips a year. Three exotic home games a year.  Still getting together with our old friend.  Actually using on-the-field performance to determine a champion. 

What in the blue ball fucking hell kind of drug are you doing?  Meth?  That post begs to be read at warps speed and made me dizzy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other than that... very entertaining.

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A&M broke it because they are terrified and want as much lead time as possible to try to squash it. 

You’re telling me someone from Texas leaked it to an A&M reporter? This kind of intel would have to be from BOD at Texas and they picked an A&M reporter to break the biggest CFB story this year?
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Just now, TexasFan21 said:


You’re telling me someone from Texas leaked it to an A&M reporter? This kind of intel would have to be from BOD at Texas and they picked an A&M reporter to break the biggest CFB story this year?

John Sharp leaked it to the Aggie reporter as John Sharp was his source. 

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