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2018 - Elections and Trends


atomheartbevo

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6 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

If turnout continues like this throughout Texas I will have to modify my Cruz by 4-6% prediction to Cruz by 3-5%.

I know, I'm a wild man.

I think I'm going to start a website called fivethirtynine.com with the slogan "because we're one better."

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7 hours ago, Bojack said:

I live in North Austin and I'm in the same gerrymandered to shit district as Waller County and beyond.  Go Prairie View.

 

7 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Same. TX 10 is a joke.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

 

Somewhat surprisingly, this ruby red seat has not yet been called. Rebublican incumbent Michael McCaul (one of the wealthiest memebers of congress) leads by 6 points, 52-46, about 26k votes. The kicker? The aggy part of Harris County is 94 percent in and Bastrop County was actually pretty close, only 2k net for McCaul. The little chunk of Travis County in the district is only 44 percent reported and is +43k for Siegel, the Democrat. He is absolutely crushing it there. Only Austin and Colorado Counties are still reporting from the hinterland between Travis and Harris, so if Siegel can end up +75 or 80k in Travis he might steal this sucker.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-house-district-10

 

EDIT: Lol, called as I type. Fuck me. Pleasantly surprised to see it that close though. Travis County really brought it this election.

Edited by gmr548
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6 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

So Kemp just stole the election.  And we are gonna pretend we are an actual democracy.  Hopefully, Georgia doesn't stand for that bullshit.

He got more votes than that gap tooth woman. 

And no. We aren’t a democracy. Never have been.  

Edited by Johnny Sack
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Harris County went pretty much straight Dem, flushing out the last remnants of the GOP machine that once ran this place. I crossed party lines to vote for Ed Emmett, head of county commissioner's court, because I knew him to be good at his job and a good man, to boot. All I can see about the woman who defeated him is "Would," but she is smart, even if she doesn't really have a clue about how her job works, yet. 

I'm ambivalent. That court did need the shake-up it got last night, but the ONLY reason Emmett lost was straight-ticket voters. 

Oh yeah, rules. 

uxVqXEjN_400x400.jpg

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Well if the Democrats take anything from 2018, it’s: 

CONTEST THE FUCK OUT OF THE MIDWEST. 2020 path isn’t Florida/Georgia/NC/Texas/AZ. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylania gives you enough to win. 

Edited by Js1
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Pretty disappointed with the results.  The good news is by 2020, the oldest boomers will start dying.  2.7% death rate for 70 year old men, 1.8 for women.  So about 5% of the oldest boomers (1945-1950) and the youngest of the silent gen just cast their last ballot.  We will finally begin to rid ourselves of the scourge of people that went to segregated elementary schools, suffer through the indignity of black people being allowed in their restaurants when they were teenagers and have resented it ever since.   

 

6BP6WLLDIZBC5AIOVEBHC4VBVA.jpg

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Also, just a reminder -

Texas Democrat Party (or whatever garbage entity claims to the TDP) - bigly FUCKED UP that State Senate special election.  With the 2 GOP State Senate losses last night, Dan Patrick still has a one-seat supermajority because THE TDP FUCKED UP THAT SPECIAL ELECTION!

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45 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Harris County went pretty much straight Dem, flushing out the last remnants of the GOP machine that once ran this place. I crossed party lines to vote for Ed Emmett, head of county commissioner's court, because I knew him to be good at his job and a good man, to boot. All I can see about the woman who defeated him is "Would," but she is smart, even if she doesn't really have a clue about how her job works, yet. 

I'm ambivalent. That court did need the shake-up it got last night, but the ONLY reason Emmett lost was straight-ticket voters. 

Oh yeah, rules. 

uxVqXEjN_400x400.jpg

God damn.  Wheelhouse.

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49 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well if the Democrats take anything from 2018, it’s: 

CONTEST THE FUCK OUT OF THE MIDWEST. 2020 path isn’t Florida/Georgia/NC/Texas/AZ. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylania gives you enough to win. 

Yeah, I don’t see Trump getting Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020.  Where does he make those up?

 And unless the Dems run Hillary 2.0, the GOP is going to have to spend a lot of money on Texas.   Paxton, Goeb, Rafael, and Miller all won by less than 5%. That’s a huge change from 2012-2016. 

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, I don’t see Trump getting Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020.  Where does he make those up?

 

Yeah I don't see it.

If Dems keep everything they won (v likely) and pick up those 3 -- 278.

Virginia? No chance. Colorado? Ha. Nevada? No, it is reliably blue at this point.  It would have to be some combination of NH + MN or something.  And MN was a good night for the DFL (won all statewide races + picked up 2 seats in suburban districts).

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29 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Pretty disappointed with the results.  The good news is by 2020, the oldest boomers will start dying.  2.7% death rate for 70 year old men, 1.8 for women.  So about 5% of the oldest boomers (1945-1950) and the youngest of the silent gen just cast their last ballot.  We will finally begin to rid ourselves of the scourge of people that went to segregated elementary schools, suffer through the indignity of black people being allowed in their restaurants when they were teenagers and have resented it ever since.   

 

6BP6WLLDIZBC5AIOVEBHC4VBVA.jpg

 

There are some republicans/conservatives on this board who want to go back to this, so I wouldn't celebrate just yet. 

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59 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well if the Democrats take anything from 2018, it’s: 

CONTEST THE FUCK OUT OF THE MIDWEST. 2020 path isn’t Florida/Georgia/NC/Texas/AZ. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylania gives you enough to win. 

Democrats rebuilt their 'blue wall' in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's a big deal for 2020.

Quote

President Donald Trump demolished the "blue wall" in the Great Lakes region two years ago. On Tuesday night, Democrats rebuilt it.

The party's candidates won races for governor and the Senate in the three states that delivered Trump the presidency -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats padded their new House majority in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Detroit, while Milwaukee delivered the surge they needed to finally, on their fourth try, beat Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

The Democratic victories set the stage for a 2020 battle royale in the three states that could decide the presidency.

cont.

 

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Help me out with this Abrams/Kemp thing. I’m seeing 100% of precincts reporting yet they’re still talking about counting votes and something about 97,000 ballots still uncounted. Are these all provisional? Absentee? Can we count them before Kemp hides them under his mattress?

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19 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

There are some republicans/conservatives on this board who want to go back to this, so I wouldn't celebrate just yet. 

It’s a very dim candle of hope, but every 18-year-old is going to be far better than the 75-year-old with a Fox-addled brain he is replacing.  

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3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

By 2040, 70 percent of the US population will be represented by 30 senators. The remaining 30 percent of the population will be represented by 70 senators. 

Pretty great system we got here. 

Again, that is by design.

Land interests  having a voice in our government is a good thing.  California governing Wyoming is a bad thing.

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That's the entire point of the Senate you doofuses (I wish it was doofi).

Complain about the House. Right now there are 1,050,493 Montanans (and 961,939 Delawareans) and one Representative while there are only 529,820 Rhode Islanders (and 579,315 Wyomingites) per Representative.

Edited by Huckleberry
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