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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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"He was never interested in things that might happen. He’s totally focused on the stock market, the economy and always bashing his predecessor and giving him no credit,” the person said. “The possibility things were things he didn’t spend much time on or show much interest in.”

“Even though we would put time on the schedule for things like that, if they happened at all, they would be very, very brief,” the former official continued. “To get the president to be focused on something like this would be quite hard.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797

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Donovan Mitchell is an eye opener. He was only tested because his entire team was. He has no symptoms. Actually said he could play a 7 game series staring tomorrow if scheduled. 
 
How many Mitchell’s are out there that have absolutely no reason to get tested?  On one hand it’s scary because they will spread it. On the other, you know the death rate is much much lower than reported. 
Donavan Mitchell is an elite athlete in his early 20s. He's not exactly representative of the population.

I do agree with you though, we're never going to know the real death rate because we're never going to know how many people get it. Obviously it'll be lower than just deaths/confirmed cases.

What remains true even while knowing that is that 1.) It's significantly higher than the flu; 2.) It's really fucking dangerous for olds, people with heart problems, etc; 3.) It spreads like South Austin's mom's legs.

The death rate will be higher than it needs to be due to lack of precautions. Seattle is starting to get to the triage stage. NYC will absolutely be there in a week or two. It's not 1918 but it's going to end up the worst thing since.
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Neighbor with the shed just came over and gave me weed. 

"Shit's getting real. Thought you might need this."

How long before virus dies on buds, and how long before they come over and kill me for my stockpile of food?

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Donavan Mitchell is an elite athlete in his early 20s. He's not exactly representative of the population.

I do agree with you though, we're never going to know the real death rate because we're never going to know how many people get it. Obviously it'll be lower than just deaths/confirmed cases.

What remains true even while knowing that is that 1.) It's significantly higher than the flu; 2.) It's really fucking dangerous for olds, people with heart problems, etc; 3.) It spreads like South Austin's mom's legs.

The death rate will be higher than it needs to be due to lack of precautions. Seattle is starting to get to the triage stage. NYC will absolutely be there in a week or two. It's not 1918 but it's going to end up the worst thing since.

Washington reported 2 deaths occurring on 3/15. They are not in triage mode 

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Even with shut downs a complete shut down of social life happening everywhere starting with the NBA on the 12th at 1600 cases...now close to everything is closed or shut down on 3/16 at 4600 cases. Italy had 7375 on 3/8..the day they went into shutdown mode. 

 

we're also much, much more spread out than italy is. I have no idea if we'll see a ratio as bad as italys at 7.7% mortality. but if we're using italys day by day stuff considering our land mass/population size, we're not even in italys atmosphere....so far.

 

Yeah, but the US case count isn't anywhere near reliable.

 

Edit: Also, Italy didn't go into shutdown until like five days ago. They tried locking down towns, then provinces, to prevent spread outward but it didn't work.

 

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22 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Sorry you dont like the truth. I thought people on here were more educated and prepared than that. Also, didnt know so much of surly was living paycheck to paycheck

when you discuss politics/philosophy, do you not consider those "below" you?  do you have any friends/family that are not as fortunate as you? it's as if nobody drinks coors light in your botique beer haven world.

don't answer that question.  i already know and don't want to CR.

Edited by Hmmm
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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
11 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:
Deaths are the only measurement that will matter. We will never have a clue how many actually have/had it. 

Ansolutely agree. The ultimate death count is going to be 100 percent inclusive either, though.

The death count is going to be pretty close to accurate. 

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
12 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:
Deaths are the only measurement that will matter. We will never have a clue how many actually have/had it. 

Ansolutely agree. The ultimate death count is going to be 100 percent inclusive either, though.

Plus the people that died of flu or trauma because there weren’t any beds or doctors to administer care due to covid patients everywhere.  Those won’t get counted as covid deaths. 

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7 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Sorry, I wasn't clear.  I have no symptoms, but I have underlying conditions that greatly elevate my risk.  So, I'm staying out of the way for a while.  I was kind of in shock, so, sorry for the lack of clarity.

Self quoting to complete this delightful story.  When I went by to pick up my documentation for work, he had reconsidered, and decided that I don't need to self isolate, after all.  I know he's stressed, too, but getting that recommendation first would have been great.  I jumped through my ass to get ready, only to be told, "Oh.  That's different.  Never mind."  

Ok, hissy fit finished.

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1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Self quoting to complete this delightful story.  When I went by to pick up my documentation for work, he had reconsidered, and decided that I don't need to self isolate, after all.  I know he's stressed, too, but getting that recommendation first would have been great.  I jumped through my ass to get ready, only to be told, "Oh.  That's different.  Never mind."  

Ok, hissy fit finished.

Can you do us all a favor? Maybe give Greenspoint tips on how to have a melt down without being a combination of a profusely bleeding axe wound and a sleep deprived toddler? That would be grand. 
 

Bonus points if you can teach the male nurse who apparently married real well or was left a trust fund to maybe dial down the entitlement dial from Rex Kramer to Just A Regular Prick. Thanks in advance. 

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Washington reported 2 deaths occurring on 3/15. They are not in triage mode 

No, but they're heading into it, which is what I said. Data is on a lag because of the timeline of the disease. They've got sick healthcare workers and hospitals getting to capacity. They're openly talking about how to handle it. The deaths will come as the disease runs its course, unfortunately.
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16 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

when you discuss politics/philosophy, do you not consider those "below" you?  do you have any friends/family that are not as fortunate as you? it's as if nobody drinks coors light in your botique beer haven world.

don't answer that question.  i already know and don't want to CR.

Are you kinda new?

Check him out in a game thread some time.

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17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Plus the people that died of flu or trauma because there weren’t any beds or doctors to administer care due to covid patients everywhere.  Those won’t get counted as covid deaths. 

Looking at WA data and it would appear they’re testing post mortem.  We are absolutely going to know how many die. 

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Are you kinda new?

Check him out in a game thread some time.

complete new. this site is absolutely foreign to me.

he's like 6th street but with a better taste in beer.  and, while 6th street appears to be an act to stimulate discourse, GP seems more authentic. don't follow politics so no idea about that.

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Just now, Hmmm said:

complete new. this site is absolutely foreign to me.

he's like South Austin but with a better taste in beer.  and, while South Austin appears to be an act to stimulate discourse, GP seems more authentic. don't follow politics so no idea about that.

Welcome to the buncha assholes!

Oh THERE'S NO POLITICS IN DT

you gotta get in CR for that.

Sorry, old name of the political junkies threads. CR=Cloak Room

 

 

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22 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

4,312 cases of coronavirus confirmed by lab tests and 79 deaths, according to a New York Times database.

 

1 hour ago, akhornfan said:

Data without thought and analysis is useless. 

In the spirit of this, I'm going to start posting daily projections based on the case reporting at worldometers.  It's less than ideal, but it actually gives us some sort of metric to show if growth might be declining.  I'm looking back at our growth rate over 10 days and then projecting what today is based on the overall trend.  The growth rate is decently consistent so far back going back to the begining of March.

10-day GR = 32.5% (obviously 0% is the end-all goal).

Today's O/U = 4,875 total  1,195 new

It stands at 4,667 and 987 currently.

 

...I've modelled this several ways already, but, given the data that we have, an exponential model of total cases seems to be the best fit - it's actually 0.95 R2 which seems extraordinary for this type of thing.  I don't think it'll hold up as infection runs it's course, though.  It seems to me that a model for new infections based on the ratio of existing cases and uninfected population is closer to correct (growth rate should naturally decline as the infection runs out of room to spread).  If anyone knows better methods, let me know.  This is a wholly new topic to me.

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Welcome to the buncha assholes!

Oh THERE'S NO POLITICS IN DT

you gotta get in CR for that.

Sorry, old name of the political junkies threads. CR=Cloak Room

 

 

thanks for the welcome.  it's not exactly shaggy tradition.  honestly, I've been around for more than a decade. and apologies to South Austin (and your mom) for confusing you with 6th street.  two complete opposites.

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10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

 

 

In the spirit of this, I'm going to start posting daily projections based on the case reporting at worldometers.  It's less than ideal, but it actually gives us some sort of metric to show if growth might be declining.  I'm looking back at our growth rate over 10 days and then projecting what today is based on the overall trend.  The growth rate is decently consistent so far back going back to the begining of March.

10-day GR = 32.5% (obviously 0% is the end-all goal).

Today's O/U = 4,875 total  1,195 new

It stands at 4,667 and 987 currently.

 

...I've modelled this several ways already, but, given the data that we have, an exponential model of total cases seems to be the best fit - it's actually 0.95 R2 which seems extraordinary for this type of thing.  I don't think it'll hold up as infection runs it's course, though.  It seems to me that a model for new infections based on the ratio of existing cases and uninfected population is closer to correct (growth rate should naturally decline as the infection runs out of room to spread).  If anyone knows better methods, let me know.  This is a wholly new topic to me.

This is pointless as the methodology for testing is changing - apples to oranges. Conversation needs to change to deaths as the major metric.

BNO reported 6 only and a total at 81. Is someone seeing a source showing differently?

 

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2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

This is pointless as the methodology for testing is changing - apples to oranges. Conversation needs to change to deaths as the major metric.

BNO reported 6 only and a total at 81. Is someone seeing a source showing differently?

 

Weve added 19 deaths today and are now at 87

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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8 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

thanks for the welcome.  it's not exactly shaggy tradition.  honestly, I've been around for more than a decade. and apologies to South Austin (and your mom) for confusing you with 6th street.  two complete opposites.

No offense taken. Just so we’re clear, I don’t usually stir up debate. I go for the cheap laugh. Usually at my own expense. And my poor mom’s.

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1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I dare one of you fucktards to post something more American.

Kind of like how the perfect country music song needs trains, mama and prison, this post lacks any reference to firearms.  But it is quite good.

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51 minutes ago, Deej said:

Neighbor with the shed just came over and gave me weed. 

"Shit's getting real. Thought you might need this."

How long before virus dies on buds, and how long before they come over and kill me for my stockpile of food?

Man, he just wants you to get stoned, eat all your food, and then you have to buy all your food from him going forward.  

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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