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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19


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10 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Just heard from my mom that her cousin in New Iberia wouldn’t leave and is going to ride this thing out at home. F’n insane. 

Do you think watching the water rise in your home to level where you have to break a window to escape drowning, or seeing an alligator swim by while you are floating above your home in 60 mph winds would be more terrifying?

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Ike: Roommate and I actually rode out the storm when it came through, but woke up to no power at our apartment complex. Managed to find a way to get to Austin despite flooded roads, where we crashed with one of his old UT fraternity brothers. Spent 2 days partying, pulled some tail, and then got word that our apartment was back on the grid. Freezer hadn't even completely thawed out yet.

 

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1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

[OCD mode]   Downtown Austin is 153 miles inland, versus 235 miles, 290 miles, and 200 miles (unless you want to count the Great Lakes.)   [/OCD mode]

OCD back at ya, Google distance lists 212.3 mi from downtown Austin to Galveston. The closest coastal city I could find was Lake Jackson/Freeport which is about 196 milrs away from downtown Austin. (of course hurricanes don't take roads solinear distances what matters.

Pittsburgh is farther, although linearly it's only about 250 miles.

Syracuse is about 215 miles straight line from New York City harbor.

But yeah the point is made that Austin isn't particularly close to the coast but vulnerable to fast-moving powerful hurricanes.

Any event, yay OCD!!

 

 

 

Edited by phdhorn
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13 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

Y'all be safe.  Living in SW Florida, I'm well acquainted with the anxiety this type of storm creates, and the damage it causes.

I flew to the ft Myers area after charlie and dennis to help my parents clean up, and got to ride out frances for my effort. Got the left side of that one though. 

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23 minutes ago, austingirl said:

What are the chances she could become a 5?

I'm not anywhere close to a met, but from what I've been reading last night and a quick scan just now:  Possible before, but not as likely at landfall.

But here's a thread to follow that has a good mix of the professional mets and forecasters posting, so not overrun by weather weanies trying to proclaims reasons it will become a Cat. 11.  Look for posters with the red or orange tags, they know what they are talking about (except turtlehurricane):
 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53634-major-hurricane-laura/page/71/

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3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think watching the water rise in your home to level where you have to break a window to escape drowning, or seeing an alligator swim by while you are floating above your home in 60 mph winds would be more terrifying?

He was a deep water diver working the platforms in the GOM, so he’s got massive balls of steel, but this just seems like self immolation. What are people like that trying to prove? When the shit is hitting the fan there’s fuck-all he could do to stop it. 

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59 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

In theory how well would a last minute evacuation of Houston go should the need arise?

Depends on how many people already evacuated.  My mom and sister evacuated a day or so ahead of Rita.  Sat in traffic for 19 hours for a usually 3 hour 45 minute drive.  Late ex-brother-in-law left the morning before landfall and made Austin in 2.5 hours.  

Edited by dcbc
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4 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think watching the water rise in your home to level where you have to break a window to escape drowning, or seeing an alligator swim by while you are floating above your home in 60 mph winds would be more terrifying?

Well, you gotta think in that situation that the alligator doesn’t give a shit about you and is doing the same thing you are In trying not to drown or get slammed into something hard and/or sharp. 

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16 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think watching the water rise in your home to level where you have to break a window to escape drowning, or seeing an alligator swim by while you are floating above your home in 60 mph winds would be more terrifying?

Don't forget the balls of pissed off fire ants.

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17 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

OCD back at ya, Google distance lists 212.3 mi from downtown Austin to Galveston.

But only 153 miles from downtown Austin to the barrier islands off Port O'Conner, the closest portion of the GOM to Austin.  Hurricane Hugo made it 170+ miles inland as a hurricane, so as your thesis stated, Austin is indeed in potential range, depending of course (SWIDT?) on location and track.

Pittsburgh is farther, although linearly it's only about 250 miles.

According to Google Maps' measuring tool, downtown Pitt. to Cape May/Rehoboth Beach is 288 miles.  I guess you could shorten that by measuring further up the constrained Delaware or Chesapeake Bays, but that puts any storm mostly over land and thus weakening. 
 

Syracuse is about 215 miles straight line from New York City harbor.

207 to Breezy Point, LI, 210 to Sandy Hook, NJ.

 

Nerd Battle Not Going Away

 

 

Edited by clapclapclap
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Don't forget the balls of pissed off fire ants.

I’ve swam into those doing water rescues, lucky not too far in because some of them are huge and a good way to go into anaphylaxis after being stung hundreds of times in rapid succession,even if you aren’t allergic.
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Just now, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Blue shed Jeff reporting storm chasers are already in trouble from the surge. 

 

According to Jeff Piotrowski there have been 911 calls from the Louisiana coast from chasers that are TRAPPED IN THEIR VEHICLES
2:41 PM · Aug 26, 2020·Twitter Web App
 
 

 

Darwin handing out awards already

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For the folks freaking out about not seeing a northward turn yet:

https://spacecityweather.com/laura-now-a-category-4-hurricane-will-be-a-catastrophic-storm-for-western-louisiana/

Key piece:

Laura is moving northwest at 16 mph, which is blazing fast for this part of the Gulf. For folks in Houston, it’s important to know that Laura is doing what is expected, and “the turn” is underway. It’s not “if” or “when.” It “is” happening, and thankfully in the world of 21st century meteorology we can say that with authority. We will not be hit too hard here by this storm. Laura is expected to make landfall on the Cameron Parish side of the Texas/Louisiana border as a category 4 hurricane tonight perhaps around or just before midnight.

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3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

For the folks freaking out about not seeing a northward turn yet:

https://spacecityweather.com/laura-now-a-category-4-hurricane-will-be-a-catastrophic-storm-for-western-louisiana/

Key piece:

Laura is moving northwest at 16 mph, which is blazing fast for this part of the Gulf. For folks in Houston, it’s important to know that Laura is doing what is expected, and “the turn” is underway. It’s not “if” or “when.” It “is” happening, and thankfully in the world of 21st century meteorology we can say that with authority. We will not be hit too hard here by this storm. Laura is expected to make landfall on the Cameron Parish side of the Texas/Louisiana border as a category 4 hurricane tonight perhaps around or just before midnight.

It’s started the turn. Last 15 mins clearly showing a shift in its trajectory.

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It's easy to say the Rita evacuation was dumb but this was the official track ~48 hours from landfall

18.AL1805W-600x480.gif

That looks like the perfect storm scenario for Houston.  And at that point it already had 175 mph winds.  The problem is the evacuation plans suck (and probably still do).  Also, it was 100 degrees when most people were stuck on the roads.  But as said, there's no way to completely evacuate that many people in 2 days no matter how good the plans are.

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It's easy to say the Rita evacuation was dumb but this was the official track ~48 hours from landfall
18.AL1805W-600x480.gif
That looks like the perfect storm scenario for Houston.  And at that point it already had 175 mph winds.  The problem is the evacuation plans suck (and probably still do).  Also, it was 100 degrees when most people were stuck on the roads.  But as said, there's no way to completely evacuate that many people in 2 days no matter how good the plans are.

Crazy they fucked up that badly. I don’t think we got a drop of rain at my house and half the neighborhood had evacuated
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25 minutes ago, WBT said:

It's easy to say the Rita evacuation was dumb but this was the official track ~48 hours from landfall

18.AL1805W-600x480.gif

That looks like the perfect storm scenario for Houston.  And at that point it already had 175 mph winds.  The problem is the evacuation plans suck (and probably still do).  Also, it was 100 degrees when most people were stuck on the roads.  But as said, there's no way to completely evacuate that many people in 2 days no matter how good the plans are.

No, it was dumb. Even with that graph, the mayor shouldn’t be telling the entire city to evacuate. People along the coast needed to get out. People in zones A or B or whatever they are called needed to go. Unless a house/neighborhood had extenuating circumstances like low area, medical issues, or poor construction, Katy, cypress, Tomball, Conroe etc should all be staying put.  You evacuate from the flooding (Houston isn’t NO and Rita wasn’t Harvey) and you shelter in place from the wind. 
 

There were over 100 deaths due to Rita, and most were evac related. It was stupid 

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