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Ukraine War


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1 minute ago, bolverk said:

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When you understand that the Koch family is truly and genuinely evil, it all makes sense.

This is no hyperbole.  I was involved in a rather large piece of litigation against Koch some years ago, spent a lot of time up in Wichita (where Koch HQ is).  I'd occasionally chat with folks at bars and such, sharing that I was indeed working on "that case" (the case and my involvement wasn't a secret).  Multiple folks commented with something along the lines of "yeah....if you work there, they expect you to drink the kool-aid."

The Kochs see themselves not just as separate and apart from any Nation state, they see themselves as above them all, and as controllers of them.  And not for any altruistic end - rather, solely to further accumulate their own wealth and power.

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When you understand that the Koch family is truly and genuinely evil, it all makes sense.

This is no hyperbole.  I was involved in a rather large piece of litigation against Koch some years ago, spent a lot of time up in Wichita (where Koch HQ is).  I'd occasionally chat with folks at bars and such, sharing that I was indeed working on "that case" (the case and my involvement wasn't a secret).  Multiple folks commented with something along the lines of "yeah....if you work there, they expect you to drink the kool-aid."

The Kochs see themselves not just as separate and apart from any Nation state, they see themselves as above them all, and as controllers of them.  And not for any altruistic end - rather, solely to further accumulate their own wealth and power.

No surprise here. I've been reading about the Koch brothers since the 1990s, and they've done a world of damage -- especially in regard to fighting efforts to stave off climate change.

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If Lindsey Graham wants to show some fucking character and guts, then finally come out of the closet. 

In a weird way, I am beginning to have a glimmer of optimism.  Simply as I am seeing this as potentially unsustainable financially for Russia.  Not to say it's going to get better before it gets worse.  As I think the brutality is only going to increase, but the long term sustainability is very much in question.  If the reports are true that Putin is asking China for help already, then to even ALLOW THE ASK, is huge.  My calculation on China is that they are taken aback at the unity of the Western world on sanctions.  I do not think either Russia or China expected the sanctions to be so universally embraced.  I think that changes China's calculous relating to becoming closer to Russia, or moving away.  China will come in before long trying to be the peacemaker to provide Putin an offramp.  

This is not to say Putin will not continue to use what he still has in the bag, meaning a lot of artillery shells. So he will pound civilian targets hoping to break the will of the people.  He also has chemical and biological weapons that he may feel forced to use as the war continues to go poorly for Russia.  Each day this going on Russia is in a weaker position than the day before.  The financial reality of the collapse of the Russian stock market is unrealized because it has not been open.  You cannot "propaganda away" a complete stock market evaporation.  Right now Putin is winning the interior propaganda war, but how can you shout "all is well" on the TV channels, when virtually all investments in Russian commercial enterprises is reduced to nothing?  You can't hide that shit, and that's why the markets have not opened since the end of February.  

I have no illusions that things are going to improve anytime soon, but I am beginning to wonder how much longer Russia can both fund a losing war, and keep the stock markets closed to maintain the lies that "all is well?"  Putin is scared to open the stock market.  Until he can do that, Russia is only getting weaker and weaker every day.  And China is the only nation that could markedly help them, and they are seeing far too much financial downside to do much more than give very limited support, from my perspective.

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39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When you understand that the Koch family is truly and genuinely evil, it all makes sense.

This is no hyperbole.  I was involved in a rather large piece of litigation against Koch some years ago, spent a lot of time up in Wichita (where Koch HQ is).  I'd occasionally chat with folks at bars and such, sharing that I was indeed working on "that case" (the case and my involvement wasn't a secret).  Multiple folks commented with something along the lines of "yeah....if you work there, they expect you to drink the kool-aid."

The Kochs see themselves not just as separate and apart from any Nation state, they see themselves as above them all, and as controllers of them.  And not for any altruistic end - rather, solely to further accumulate their own wealth and power.

I was heavily recruited to join Koch, and the whole moving to Kansas thing is a massive deal killer unless they are paying me like 500k a year, because I would be leaving every weekend.

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I was heavily recruited to join Koch, and the whole moving to Kansas thing is a massive deal killer unless they are paying me like 500k a year, because I would be leaving every weekend.

1 -- they have a nice little minor league stadium right on the river.

2 -- they have a Coleman factory outlet store.

3 -- there's a kickass retrograde steakhouse called "The Scotch and Sirloin."  

4 -- ........yeah, I'm about done here.  My brochure for "move to Wichita!" is a short one.

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7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I was heavily recruited to join Koch, and the whole moving to Kansas thing is a massive deal killer unless they are paying me like 500k a year, because I would be leaving every weekend.

And I thought that would be a pay cut for you. 

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

No surprise here. I've been reading about the Koch brothers since the 1990s, and they've done a world of damage -- especially in regard to fighting efforts to stave off climate change.

Plus they gave us the Tea Party which is connected to that but has also caused a whole lot of collateral damage. Both to the country and to the GOP. 

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

No surprise here. I've been reading about the Koch brothers since the 1990s, and they've done a world of damage -- especially in regard to fighting efforts to stave off climate change.

The most dangerous people are the ones that talk about libertarian ideals or that the marketplace will solve everything. You will hear that if a company is harming the environment eventually customers will stop buying their product. smh.

 

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3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

coleman at #2 did not bode well for the list as a whole. 

Say what you will, but I picked up a pair of waterproof hiking/hunting boots there that I still wear over 20 years later.  There were deals to be had.

8 minutes ago, brakeman said:

ballsey move.

1 -- she gots guts.

2 -- she dead.

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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- they have a nice little minor league stadium right on the river.

2 -- they have a Coleman factory outlet store.

3 -- there's a kickass retrograde steakhouse called "The Scotch and Sirloin."  

4 -- ........yeah, I'm about done here.  My brochure for "move to Wichita!" is a short one.

 

A Coleman factory outlet store.....

Jerry Seinfeld GIF

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
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China could look better here if they would publicly state "while we have enjoyed a business relationship with Mr Putin's Russia we cannot provide arms as we vehemently disagree with his decision to invade Ukraine. Mr Putin has not breached business contracts with China so we shall honor them but we will not be a party to the invasion of Ukraine and we request Mr Putin reconsider this decision and commit to peace".

But they won't because they want to invade Taiwan. 

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Dumb question amnesty please.  

Quote

Dr. Bernd Kaussler, a political science professor at James Madison University said the U.S. technically does not have to do anything by law since Ukraine is not in NATO.

“It’s not a treaty obligation. A treaty obligation... Article 5 under NATO means by law the U.S. has to come to the aid of NATO countries. Last time NATO did that was after 9/11,” said Kaussler.

There are treaties and there are agreements and the two differ from each other.

The U.S. did make a deal in 1994 with Ukraine, known as the Budapest Agreement. Ukraine actually had the third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile. This was because the newly-founded Ukraine ended up with the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons in their territory after the Soviet Union collapsed.

This agreement meant that Ukraine would destroy the weapons and the U.S., United Kingdom (U.K.), and Russia would guarantee Ukraine staying secure. This, however, is not a treaty.

“The Iran nuclear deal was an agreement, just like the Budapest Agreement in 1994. So, the next president can just no longer honor it. That’s exactly what Trump did with the Iran nuclear deal. If it’s a treaty, it’s law and you cannot revoke it,” said Kaussler.

If Russia were to invade a NATO country like Poland, the U.S. would have to respond under law.

https://www.whsv.com/2022/02/25/does-us-have-an-obligation-protect-ukraine/

So basically, Ukraine signed off on something even flimsier than our indigenous natives did.   If Trump decides to not uphold this agreement, doesn't mean Biden can't.  And if Biden says go for it, then Putin can come back and say it's not really legal, since his administration didn't sign off on that agreement?   I just can't see how any of this will be good for nuclear reductions going forward, which is her point.    Why didn't they put them in NATO under some sort of probation?   We will give you X years of unlimited protection to get your country up to NATO standards and will continually assess your progress.   

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3 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I just can't see how any of this will be good for nuclear reductions going forward, which is her point. 

Really, her point is the big one.

When it comes to geopolitics, the rule is now being set: if you don't have a nuke, get one.  If you have the means to get one and you don't, you're a freaking idiot.

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I have to wonder if back in 94 it was considered that Ukraine wouldn't stick it out and sooner or later end up part of Russia again.  And with that in mind,  Clinton didn't push Russia too hard for a more resolute protection agreement for Ukraine, not wanting to poke the bear, or actually trusting them to their word.

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28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Really, her point is the big one.

When it comes to geopolitics, the rule is now being set: if you don't have a nuke, get one.  If you have the means to get one and you don't, you're a freaking idiot.

(checks notes) Australia does not have any nukes. (screams conflictingly)

bruh-you-kidding-me.gif

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42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Really, her point is the big one.

When it comes to geopolitics, the rule is now being set: if you don't have a nuke, get one.  If you have the means to get one and you don't, you're a freaking idiot.

Rule has been set for a while now. See Iraq Libya Syria etc etc. But Ukraine didn’t have launch control over any of those nukes. They still should have kept them in hind sight. 

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Rule has been set for a while now. See Iraq Libya Syria etc etc. But Ukraine didn’t have launch control over any of those nukes. They still should have kept them in hind sight. 

Even decent 1990s era scientists and engineers could have stripped them down to the enriched plutonium and restructured usable warheads. 

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14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Really, her point is the big one.

When it comes to geopolitics, the rule is now being set: if you don't have a nuke, get one.  If you have the means to get one and you don't, you're a freaking idiot.

If I’m Taiwan, I am turning my clandestine nuc program to 11

Edited by Horn Dog
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14 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

Dumb question amnesty please.  

So basically, Ukraine signed off on something even flimsier than our indigenous natives did.   If Trump decides to not uphold this agreement, doesn't mean Biden can't.  And if Biden says go for it, then Putin can come back and say it's not really legal, since his administration didn't sign off on that agreement?   I just can't see how any of this will be good for nuclear reductions going forward, which is her point.    Why didn't they put them in NATO under some sort of probation?   We will give you X years of unlimited protection to get your country up to NATO standards and will continually assess your progress.   

We have kept the Budapest agreement. That agreement requires us to respect Ukraine’s territory and sovereignty (check), to refrain from using force on Ukraine (check), and to consult with the UNSC if anyone does those things (check).  We’re required to do the same for Kazakhstan or Belarus, too by the way.  There’s nothing in the memorandum that extends a security guarantee to any of those nations.

 

There is just no mechanism for junior NATO and until recently, Ukraine didn’t really want it. Yanukovych put that on ice till 2014 and the new government found itself immediately in an armed confrontation  with Russia and NATO could never extend a security guarantee in that situation. 

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