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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yeah, they are freaked out. That Fox poll today was VERY good news for Kamala (and Dems overall). I don't think it's getting enough attention. In April, the Fox pollsters had Trump +6 over Biden in Georgia. Now it's Kamala +2. 

Yes, these results are all within the margin of error, but the momentum is real and still trending up. 

 

I mean, Nate Silver is a hacky pundit but he said these polls look like a, currently, Harris +4-5 environment, which means she just matches Biden and wins easily in the EC. If it even goes up another point nationally, then you start talking about NC flipping (100 EV win) and FL getting dicey

A late Wednesday night press release to bitch about Fox News polls screams “our internals suck, the public polls suck, please don’t give up on us and stop sending us money”

Edited by Js1
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Posted
47 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

That's ridiculous, that wouldn't happen.

Oh wait.

 

“For a despicable individual to physically prevent President Trump’s team from accompanying him to this solemn event is a disgrace and does not deserve to represent the hollowed [sic] grounds of Arlington National Cemetery. Whoever this individual is spreading these lies are dishonoring the men and women of our armed forces, and they are disrespecting everyone who paid the price for defending our country,” (Campaign manager Chris) LaCivita continued.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/28/politics/trump-campaign-arlington-national-cemetery-incident/index.html

"...hollowed grounds..." 😆

Definitely, the best and the brightest.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yeah, they are freaked out. That Fox poll today was VERY good news for Kamala (and Dems overall). I don't think it's getting enough attention. In April, the Fox pollsters had Trump +6 over Biden in Georgia. Now it's Kamala +2. 

Yes, these results are all within the margin of error, but the momentum is real and still trending up. 

 

Polls are looking good. Soon it will be time to hand out the shillelaghs and round up MAGATS.

GIF_20240828_223503_863.gif.7932677ad420be3ff1049328792c94ec.gif

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Posted
16 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

They won't cover it.  You could have dotard taking a dump on the grave of the Unknown Soldier and the media would do jack shit.

Politico was not reading this thread

IMG_3283.thumb.png.2df27750071b883bf4b4b3b142fca613.png

 

Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Haha hey yall we were kinda fucking around with that whole “ uncommitted” thing haha

 

Bluff called, there was zero upside to letting them speak and it was obvious. Their entire strategy was idiotic as most here realized. They have an important viewpoint that should be heard but they played themselves. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s losers looking for a community that embraces them without question.  The Maga usually just say hell yeah brother when he does that shit. 

Oooh, you may be on to something.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Js1 said:

I mean, Nate Silver is a hacky pundit but he said these polls look like a, currently, Harris +4-5 environment, which means she just matches Biden and wins easily in the EC. If it even goes up another point nationally, then you start talking about NC flipping (100 EV win) and FL getting dicey

A late Wednesday night press release to bitch about Fox News polls screams “our internals suck, the public polls suck, please don’t give up on us and stop sending us money”

I realize what you’re saying here, but there was nothing “comfortable” about Biden EC win last time. 

Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I realize what you’re saying here, but there was nothing “comfortable” about Biden EC win last time. 

This.  Though admittedly, I felt good enough about it that I offered to buy the first bottle of champagne at Le Bernardin at dinner the night before it was called on Saturday and the party broke out.

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Posted
I realize what you’re saying here, but there was nothing “comfortable” about Biden EC win last time. 

I will never forget the moment the NYT needle pivoted to Biden being the favorite in Georgia. The night had been filled with a deep feeling of doom prior to that. Also I think Fox News calling Arizona early is an underrated “saving democracy” moment.
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Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I realize what you’re saying here, but there was nothing “comfortable” about Biden EC win last time. 

2020 was definitely induced some butthole puckering until you started to see the swing states and Georgia come in....it took way longer than normal as well for that to happen which IMO added to how puckered the butthole was.

 

I'm not saying this one is over or won't be close but leading into November as of right now it feels like it may be an easier path to presidency for democrats, especially since there isn't an incumbent. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

2020 was definitely induced some butthole puckering until you started to see the swing states and Georgia come in....it took way longer than normal as well for that to happen which IMO added to how puckered the butthole was.

 

I'm not saying this one is over or won't be close but leading into November as of right now it feels like it may be an easier path to presidency for democrats, especially since there isn't an incumbent. 

I doubt there are many 18-22 year old trump voters also.  He has no room to grow his vote, he can only drum up enthusiasm among his existing cult who haven’t died in the last 4 years.

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Posted

Gotta post them, even though it’s Emerson and they’re terrible 

AZ: Trump +3

GA/NV: Harris +1

MI: Harris +3

NC/WI: Trump +1

PA: tie 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I doubt there are many 18-22 year old trump voters also.  He has no room to grow his vote, he can only drum up enthusiasm among his existing cult who haven’t died in the last 4 years.

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

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Posted
Just now, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

This. There’s a good chunk of them at some crappy SEC school, being young racist fucks. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Gotta post them, even though it’s Emerson and they’re terrible 

AZ: Trump +3

GA/NV: Harris +1

MI: Harris +3

NC/WI: Trump +1

PA: tie 

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

Yep, gotta hope come November that Kamala is the clear favorite and Trump Bros are too lazy to go to the polls. 

 

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Posted
You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

Absolutely. And they they’ve been cult members with their parents. But newer voters are still overwhelmingly dem. Each 4 years that pass make it harder for turnip. Which isn’t to say he can’t win given the ec. But he has to do more inflaming of his cult and getting cult election officials in place
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Posted
4 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

See southern frats guys as example 

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Posted

Bad news for Turnip, who is probably going for low enthusiasm, low turnout  

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting. This is up from 54% in March.

The Aug. 1-20 survey was conducted mostly before the Aug. 19-22 Democratic National Convention but after President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21. Party leaders quickly coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee in the days after Biden's announcement.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from 59% in the spring.

As a result of these changes, election enthusiasm has shifted from being at an average level in March to the highest Gallup has measured during a presidential election campaign. Gallup measured similarly high enthusiasm -- 67% -- in September 2020, October 2008 and August 2004 surveys.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

The guys driving the F250s with the giant trump flags all fall into this group.  MAGA has a solid base in the 18-30 market.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I doubt there are many 18-22 year old trump voters also.  He has no room to grow his vote, he can only drum up enthusiasm among his existing cult who haven’t died in the last 4 years.

No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. But they grow to an age where they can. I also tell my daughters that they now know what guys to look out for and stay away from.

Edited by mdmost
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Posted
No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. 

Have you seen the polling of 18 to 29 year olds? Turnip loses bigly among them. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a significant percentage of them. He does. But every 4 years that passes it becomes a somewhat smaller percentage. Which if you’re talking about 12k votes in Georgia makes a difference. Without election fuckery he has a marginally harder road to the presidency every 4 years based on demographics
Posted

Most notable is Collin County, home to Plano in the DFW Metroplex, which has seen an average leftward shift of 5.77 percentage points each election cycle. Williamson and Hays counties, suburbs of Austin, both moved to the left by an average of more than 5 percentage points each cycle.

 

On a statewide level, Texas has seen an average shift to the Democrats of 2.37% each election cycle since 2014.

https://www.kxan.com/news/your-local-election-hq/these-are-the-reddest-and-bluest-counties-in-texas-based-on-recent-election-results/

 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

Its important to look at the trends from their July polls

Arizona Trump +5 to Trump +3

Georgia Trump +2 to Harris +1

Michigan Trump +1 to Harris +3

PA Trump +2 to tie

the only one that didn’t move in Harris’ favor was WI, from a tie to Trump +1, but that’s really negligible and could be rounding error 

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Posted
Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Williamson and Hays counties, suburbs of Austin, both moved to the left by an average of more than 5 percentage points each cycle.

For Williamson and Hays, I didn't follow the last election cycle with much detail, but I know that there was a blue sweep in the Hays County judicial races, which took a lot of folks by surprise.  And those are relatively down-ballot elections.  It looks like Hays is going bluer faster than Wilco, which has still held onto a Republican dominated judiciary.  But Williamson seems firmly purple, which is pretty fucking remarkable given how deep right red that county has been for so long.  For whatever my lawyer perspective is worth.

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