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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

The radical right republicans are freaking out about Harris code-switching. It’s hilarious because it’s White people claiming her doing this is “weird, odd, or fake” when the group she’s code-switching for doesn’t give a shit and knows exactly why she’s doing it.

 

They.

Have.

Nothing.

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Posted
13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

trump gives zero fucks about the election results. his money will be spent on lawyers post election …

I don’t think this is all that surprising. Trump was giving up on everything other than PA and GA, while not expecting that NC was in play. 

in his calculus, he had to win PA and GA, thought that the rest of the blue wall was already lost, and that NV and AZ didn’t matter. 

Thats still the only path to victory for him. Win all 3 of NC, PA, and GA. Lose any of those and the election is lost for him. The polls show it that way too. He’s most likely already lost the rest of the blue wall and the western states don’t matter. 

Kamala has to try to win everything that’s in play outside of those 3 to make it so that unless Trump can win or cheat his way to all 3 of those, she wins. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Silver or someone like that tweeted that the winner of PA has a 90%+ chance of winning it all.

The constant barrage of political advertising I see in PA says that both campaigns know this as well. Watching football is a beating. Every single commercial break has at least one political ad. 

The overwhelming message from the Trump campaign is that illegal immigrants are ruining everything, inflation is all Kamala’s fault, and she’s soft on crime. That’s it. That’s the extent of their message. Some form of that on repeat.

Also sort of interesting to see that 1 campaign sends a mailer 2-3 times a week while the other campaign hasn’t sent me a single one. 
 

Edit to add that some portion of Trumps advertising also claims that he total has absolutely nothing to do with project 2025. 

Edited by heso
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Meghan is just the entitled family cunt 

Cunt is a little strong, no?  It’s not like she’s running for governor of Arkansas.  

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Posted (edited)

This seems bad great. Politico:

 

image.thumb.png.7e675aa411db3ec20a20ff73ae6e514d.png

a snip:

Quote

 

Panic is starting to set in.

“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”

In some ways it’s a familiar place for the party, which has found itself facing a version of this quandary every two years since former President Donald Trump turbocharged Democrats’ small-dollar fundraising. And Republicans are sounding the alarm now because they believe there is still time to fix it.

They know they won’t be able to match Democrats dollar-for-dollar, but they need to narrow the deficit to stay in the game.

But Democrats are reaching new heights, pounding the airwaves with multimillion-dollar ad blitzes while their GOP opponents are still scrambling for funds. In some key Senate battlegrounds, Democrats are so flush with cash that they are outspending Republicans by tens of millions on the air. That’s forced the GOP to lean heavily on super PACs, which can raise unlimited amounts of money but must pay higher rates for the same ad slots.

 

 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted (edited)
On 8/30/2024 at 10:51 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

Did y'all catch what Trump was saying near the end of this clip? Talking about two flags that blew together and formed a "perfect angel" at the Butler rally? 

I just looked it up. 

 

The guy is completely out of his mind. JFC. 

 

SIAP

 

 

IMG_0175.jpeg

Edited by TheStoicPaisano
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

About Pennsylvania, from the same Politico article - perhaps why it's not as strong this year for Dems, so far:

image.thumb.png.2e4ce269cb37e13c78d017868e4c9ecd.png

And yet Casey has been up 6+ in almost every poll lol

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

About Pennsylvania, from the same Politico article - perhaps why it's not as strong this year for Dems, so far:

image.thumb.png.2e4ce269cb37e13c78d017868e4c9ecd.png

I’ve seen a lot of anti bob Casey ads recently. Probably the second most common political ad I’ve seen for the last week or so. After anti Kamala ads.

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Chopper said:

This seems bad great. Politico:

 

image.thumb.png.7e675aa411db3ec20a20ff73ae6e514d.png

a snip:

 

This shit barely registers with me as any one check from a few dozen gop mega asshole donors and it’s all square. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, bluto said:

This shit barely registers with me as any one check from a few dozen gop mega asshole donors and it’s all square. 

McCormick is worth like $150-$200m. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Trump about downballot Republicans: 

Crazy Ex Girlfriend Idk GIF

Trump only sees the down ballot candidates as a money maker for him. If they want his endorsement, they need to give him money. Usually by renting out a Trump facility. Pay extra and get a tweet. Pay even more and you get a photo opportunity.

There will be zero money in the other direction.

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Posted
41 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Cunt is a little strong, no?  It’s not like she’s running for governor of Arkansas.  

I’m open to other things to call her. Entitled nepo baby

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Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

The amount of money spent in politics is just sickening. 

Less so when the sums spent are raised $20 to $50 bucks at a time. What is sickening is billionaires effectively buying elections.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Less so when the sums spent are raised $20 to $50 bucks at a time. What is sickening is billionaires effectively buying elections.

Fuck you SCOTUS!

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Posted
Quote

“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Well, when you put it THAT way . . .

Posted
21 minutes ago, bluto said:

This shit barely registers with me as any one check from a few dozen gop mega asshole donors and it’s all square. 

I get the cynicism but there's something called the Lowest Unit Rate, which allows presidential campaigns to purchase ads at the lowest rate. Individual PACs can't access those rates. Also as the election nears it can be all but impossible -- especially in swing states -- to find desirable open time slots for ads. Finally, there's also plenty of wealthy individuals spending money for the Democratic side. 

Posted

Also, tv ads are effective in political campaigns but the type of ad (positive, negative, issue-oriented) that's effective varies year to year. That's the conclusion from a study by a Democratic-allied firm. I take this additional conclusion from the same 2024 study as a big positive this year:

the study’s authors also note that the greatest benefits would likely accrue to the best-funded campaigns and groups that can afford to create (and test) many ads in real time, not cash-strapped efforts further down the ballot.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Do you even “Soros funded,” bro?

Cute but I'm talking about a lot of Silicon Valley money and Wall Street, along with other reliable, wealthy, large Democratic donors. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Cute but I'm talking about a lot of Silicon Valley money and Wall Street, along with other reliable, wealthy, large Democratic donors. 

Yes.....each candidate gets funding from some folks with fat wallets.  But come the fuck on, man.  The delta is insane.  Small dollar donation numbers:

 

Funds raised from small donors

In the 2024 US election campaign season, Kamala Harris has the highest percentage of small donors for any presidential candidate since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in July 2024.

Small donors are defined as those contributing less than $200.

Kamala Harris

$209,442,720

Donald Trump

$83,467,443

 

Want to see what the big dollar donors are doing?  Go here.  https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/biggest-donors  13 of the top 20 are almost exclusively donors to Republicans, and the top 4 (which are some BIG numbers) are ALL Republican donors.  Don't "both sides" this shit.  Billionaires and their ilk are a significantly larger source of funds for the GQP than they are for the Dems.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't "both sides" this shit.  Billionaires and their ilk are a significantly larger source of funds for the GQP than they are for the Dems.

I'm not "both sidesing" shit. If you thought that was any part of my main point -- edit, or you missed that I was merely responding to a snide comment about Soros -- you missed reading a post or two. 

Edited by Chopper
Posted
36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

I bet if you made a $ spent advertising vs. votes changed graph, it would looks something like this.

 

Logarithmic curve

graph doesn't start at 0,0  I assume $ on the X and votes on the Y

Posted
57 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The amount of money spent in politics is just sickening. 

Most of it goes into the pockets of consultants if you're not independently wealthy and funding things yourself. That's where the big money is. If you can start your own Mayes Media, Murphy Nasica, etc and win you'll be rolling in the dough 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Interesting and fun historical fact that Lobo would appreciate (RIP 😪)

Only once in US history has a President, their VP and their VP's VP all been elected president - Washington, then his VP Adams, and then his VP Jefferson.  Which was under the old system where the VPs were elected separately. 

Eisenhower, his VP Nixon and then his VP Ford all served as president, but we know Ford was not elected.

We have a chance to do it again - Obama, his VP Biden, and his VP Harris. 

they'll make nice bookends for our country

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Posted
My kid proudly mailed off her voter registration today. She turns 18 a few days before the election. 
Gen Z is ready to save America from the boomers while us Gen Xers get black out drunk on election night.
 

Mine turns 18 Dec 10. She’s bummed.
Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Looks like we've got our "Willie Horton".

 

3 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Ah... the old "Willie Horton" play.  

 

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It won't matter.  Trump could have killed the agent and strangled the wife himself and it won't matter.

It's infuriating, actually.  On almost a daily basis there is something that would DQ any other candidate from either party but nothing matters.

 

2 hours ago, mdmost said:

Trump's campaign will just answer with stories of migrants killing young white women and blaming that on Border Czar Kamala. It's a lose-lose proposition. 

I'm fascinated by how much the political landscape has shifted in just a few decades.  

I remember vividly how the Bush campaign was chastised by Democrats for the racist dog whistle sounded by the Horton ads.  In case you've forgotten, here's a refresher: https://www.history.com/news/george-bush-willie-horton-racist-ad
 

I doubt the actual Harris/Walz campaign touches this issue because of the above.   However, there is an army of supporters on Twitter and other social media platforms that will continue to publicize it.

If we are all in agreement that it won't actually hurt Trump, there is very little value in hammering this issue, and a lot of collateral damage that could result.

Attacking Trump isn't going to win this election.  Highlighting the Harris/Walz character, competence, and vision will.

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Posted
4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

The down-ballot Republicans have to pay him if they want to use photos of themselves and Trump in their campaigns.

Donny gotta get his NIL

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

 

 

 

 

I'm fascinated by how much the political landscape has shifted in just a few decades.  

I remember vividly how the Bush campaign was chastised by Democrats for the racist dog whistle sounded by the Horton ads.  In case you've forgotten, here's a refresher: https://www.history.com/news/george-bush-willie-horton-racist-ad
 

I doubt the actual Harris/Walz campaign touches this issue because of the above.   However, there is an army of supporters on Twitter and other social media platforms that will continue to publicize it.

If we are all in agreement that it won't actually hurt Trump, there is very little value in hammering this issue, and a lot of collateral damage that could result.

Attacking Trump isn't going to win this election.  Highlighting the Harris/Walz character, competence, and vision will.

Agree it's hard to damage Trump sice the bar is soooooo low.

However, unlike Willie Horton which was the result of a program, this is a direct "you in particular" type of deal.

There have been so many.

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