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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Fl has pot on the ballot. Does that bring any additional voters that would vote D, or just Trump voters that will vote for it?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

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Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Quote

picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

It was a simplistic math exercise for the five closest states to tipping. I'm sure the number of conservative old retirees killed by Covid in Florida was replaced by an equal (if not greater) number of conservative old retirees since then. There's still a little wiggle room for movement among other groups, but again, yes, it's Florida.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Fl has pot on the ballot. Does that bring any additional voters that would vote D, or just Trump voters that will vote for it?

 

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

Good points that I hadn't even considered to factor in.

Edited by bolverk
Posted
8 hours ago, South Austin said:

If it's true that Obama is pissed, I hope he considers the significant number of minority voters who would have been furious if the sitting VP, a multiracial woman, was passed up by another old white dude.

I know I'm preaching to a large choir, but Kelly for President just wouldn't have moved the needle for a block of voters who were previously apathetic when Biden was the nominee.  

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

So the past few male presidents have been minorities?  DEI candidates?

Posted
6 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I'll eat your literal hat if Florida goes blue.

They're taking everybody's most MAGA semi-successful neighbors. 

Well, all the ones who don't stop in Texas that is.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

image.png.85e76f81d47496809ff5d0717785a38c.png

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

image.png.e03ebbb6491f3f63e1e636f330402d8b.png 


then the court battle starts !

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Posted
9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

Good to have seen you come around

Posted (edited)

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Edited by TeeDubya
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Posted
Just now, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

The first part answers your second part, as you know. 

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Posted
Just now, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

mostly: because they've been fed pure unadulterated bullshit by oil and tobacco companies and religion for as long as anyone can remember and have been conditioned to think that any change at the behest of anyone else is an attack on their way of life.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

Did Hugo steal your login?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

Biden treats it as the mandate that it would be, and sends a cruise missile to Mar a lago. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

So they’ll sue? Big deal. They tried that already, with a much more favorable judiciary and state apparatuses 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Biden treats it as the mandate that it would be, and sends a cruise missile to Mar a lago. 

But is immune from prosecution....

Posted

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

Listen asshole. You're probably right, but.....but, Florida and North Carolina are at least worth putting time and money into. Fuck shitbag Ohio and Texas....

 

 

 

...and nobody likes you 

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Posted
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

It had been explained 63747252 times how gerrymandering does in fact, fuck up statewide races

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

Like Trump knows who that is, but I bet he thinks he’s smarter than some dead general 

Posted
10 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

Yea.

Years ago I advised family members to upgrade their cell phones due to security issues.

Almost every response was, "What makes you so smart?!"

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Posted
13 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

I think the deep motivation underneath it all is a belief they are voting for their interest.  If you're a left-behind uneducated white person, its rational to believe that voting for a racist system will provide fewer opportunities to black people, which means more opportunities to you.

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

Cracking Up Lol GIF by NBA on TNT

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

A lack of power in downballot elections depresses turnout statewide because it feeds into apathetic "vibes."

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general who in 1972 headed a crack commando unit that was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit.

much more likely.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

No fucking way it is that Hannibal.

Hannibal lost. Like a dog.

To somebody named Africanus

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Posted

The Tik Tok pivot is a nice move. My Mom is a Boomer and she’s on Tik Tok a lot because Facebook got all crazy and Trump ruined everybody for her. It’s not just Gen Z on Tik Tok, it’s a lot of older people too who don’t like all the Facebook bullshit.

I’d like to know if candidates can ask Tik Tok to place targeted ads geared towards a specific group of voters in a certain area. Like if a Democrat is against school vouchers they could target rural counties who typically vote R (but voters are against school vouchers) by telling Tik Tok to blast a specific commercial there talking about how anti voucher the candidate is. Does political advertising in social media work like this? 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

 

27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think the deep motivation underneath it all is a belief they are voting for their interest.  If you're a left-behind uneducated white person, its rational to believe that voting for a racist system will provide fewer opportunities to black people, which means more opportunities to you.

 

This is the main problem in Texas. The data below show the actual number of votes that were cast in 2020 in comparison to each state's 18+ age (voter-aged) population, according to the 2020 Census.

Less than half of our "adults" voted. As Js1 has stated repeatedly, we don't vote at nearly the same rate as other states. Why is that?

Years and years of gerrymandering and voter suppression have led to a whole swath of folks being too discouraged to vote. I can't tell you how many times I've heard (and even thought myself): "It doesn't matter how I vote -- I live in Texas."

image.png.93344ae4e0c88ac94fb361c81abd6e80.png

Edited to add North Carolina and Wisconsin. Yes, they were gerrymandered, but they haven't been trained over decades to acquire the same sense of learned helplessness. This is what 30 years of one-party rule does to the public.

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

No fucking way it is that Hannibal.

Hannibal lost. Like a dog.

To somebody named Africanus

Loop Trump GIF

No way a great general like the late, great Hannibal Lector would lose to a black guy.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm sorry, but there is absolutely no fucking way Donald Trump has the first clue who Hannibal is.

You sure?

image.png.05e9dbac90e817076fedbb92454d0584.png

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