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Posted
Just now, texasdago said:

This is the rain event that won't quit.

 

Oh, and Lindner needs to learn how to write Guadalupe 

 

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Yes.  I’ll let him have the maths and leave the spelling to us.

Dude is probably tired as shit too.

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Posted

Flash flood warning for a big part of Travis and Williamson supposed to expire at 6:00, but Doppler looks like there's a lot more rain still to come.

Is Leander going to re-flood?

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Posted

Gauges at Hamilton Creek and Big Sandy are still borked, but Cow Creek is operating.  This one was down to 1 cfs just a couple hours ago, now rising again, currently at 1.27K cfs.  Yesterday it peaked at 57K and at some point during that event, is when the bridge at 1431 and Cow Creek washed out..

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Posted

Final(?) Sunday update:
(unless things get bad, which I really doubt at this point tonight)

Well, the dry air held off enough (and protected most of Austin and S along the 35 corridor) but in the end the daytime heating allowed the storms to creep back in from the N and W. And two of the most concentrated blobs hit in the 2 worst places - Kerr County and NW Travis and up through Willie and Llano/San Saba. The center of this system has ambled SW this afternoon to the Llano County area. Not a great dry out day but at least it's clear that the system has lost some broad pop. However, the system is clearly evaporating out in the Kerr area and more slowly so in our area. I'd expect things to quiet down the rest of today.

Today's rains did have points of heavy rates; however, they were less broad and intense than the past 2 days. Saturated ground has allowed for some brief flash flooding but streams should recover within a few hours. There is only one active flash flood warning - unfortunately the western part of Kerr County. However I'd expect that to pass soon with the diminishing rain if it hasn't yet already.

Overnight should be mostly quiet if we get to midnight. How much rain starts bubbling up post-midnight with this tropical situation is anyone's guess, but most NWS models show a decrease for Monday, and for the system to be much less oppressive. Nevertheless I'll post something tomorrow a.m. because I can't take that for granted.  FWIW I'll also post a few off-the-cuff reactions to this whole thing.

Hopefully the weather will normalize now... still a decent chance of afternoon showers/storms this week, mostly due to high humidity and prevailing winds coming from the SE by Monday evening, and this system's influence on this region will finally end. See you tomorrow (unless situation warrants something tonight, I doubt it).

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Major flooding underway in New Braunfels

Yep this is new... TS's were dumping rain west of NB today and along with the heightened flow of the Guadalupe a Flash Flood warning was issued at 7:30 tonight. Take care down there, stay away from the river.

I don't see any other warnings anywhere in our region at this time.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:


Did you make your trek with the grandkids today? If so, how was it?

Yes, I mentioned it above somewhere. San Saba is tore up on the east side and the river is still very wide and flowing hard. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Gauges at Hamilton Creek and Big Sandy are still borked, but Cow Creek is operating.  This one was down to 1 cfs just a couple hours ago, now rising again, currently at 1.27K cfs.  Yesterday it peaked at 57K and at some point during that event, is when the bridge at 1431 and Cow Creek washed out..

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Cow Creek…..isn’t that near Sunrise Ranch where Bevo lives?

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Cow Creek…..isn’t that near Sunrise Ranch where Bevo lives?

 

Bevo lives mostly on a ranch off of FM 1869 near Liberty Hill.  They have a second ranch on FM 1174, but it is on high ground well above Cow Creek.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Daughter works at Schlitterbahn and I just picked her up. That was fun. 

You went on water slides at a time like this?  Sir, this is not the time for that.  
 

Were the lines long?  Asking for a friend 

Edited by Lhorn
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Posted

Probably already discussed but this thread moves fast. In Tulsa there is a very unique siren that indicates that the Arkansas River is expected to rise suddenly. It’s very different than a tornado siren and only sounds along the river. Is that in place along this river? A phone message of “flash flood warning” is pretty general although arguably people on a river should know it affects them directly. Either way a river siren seems like it would be the most effective warning for people to head to higher ground. Is that a thing in Texas?

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Posted

Texas Tribune https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/06/texas-disaster-warning-emergency-communication-bill-kerrville-floods

image.thumb.png.6e95fea8433ff2ebb95b9def511b197b.png
 

Quote

 

State Rep. Ken King’s HB 13 would have created The Texas Interoperability Council and tasked it with crafting a statewide strategic plan governing the use of emergency equipment and infrastructure. Even if it had passed, it would not have gone into effect until Sept. 1, after the Hill Country flooding.

The bill would have also created a statewide communications network for first responders and provided grants for counties to help pay for improved communications and warning systems, including radio towers. The bill’s initial $500 million cost drew heavy criticism from fellow Republicans including state Rep. Tony Tinderholt, R-Arlington.

“This shouldn't be about anything other than the fact that it's a half a billion dollars,” Tinderholt, a hardline conservative and budget hawk, said during the April 1 House floor debate. “This is probably one of the most simple votes we should be able to take today. It's that this interoperability council is going to spend money to try and get these departments to be able to talk together.”

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Texas is under the microscope and with the world watching.  Political, personal and commercial interests are pointing fingers, not a good look. In using the word "personal", I'm referring to people who did not lose a loved one.  Recovery of those who paid the ultimate price should be the focus.  Accusations can be dealt with in the future, now is the time to deal with the emergency as it unfolds.  I doubt if I live another 40 years to see 100, but I'll bet during the time I have left there will not be a weather system in play that can precisely predict rainfall, wind speed, etc. down to a gnat's ass.  The timing of this couldn't have been worse, a major holiday and during the early hours after midnight.  I get it, everyone deserves a nice long weekend.  We've all heard the "wolf" cry before.  Maybe some do leave, most will not.  When does personal responsibility and self-awareness kick in?  I saw a vid yesterday of a man who lived on the river.  During his interview he stated, " I had no idea this could happen". Seriously? This event isn't just about the young lives lost.  There are at least another 50 plus out there.  I don't pretend to have the most accurate up to the minute count.  KFDM is the source I used this morning.

Floods in central Texas: At least 82 dead, 10 children missing as search efforts intensify

I'm not going to do the math, so if someone pick up the ball and carry the rest of the way it might be interesting to see the numbers.  A gallon of water weighs in at 8.34 pounds a gallon.  Just how many gallons of water is rushing through the river bottom and at what velocity?  This is what pushes cars off the road, folds up canoes like tacos, and sweeps houses from their concrete pads.  People need to understand the force/impact water can have.  

We'll see it again.  There will another hurricane or rain event and folks will stay behind.  I'll admit it, I've stayed behind.  I also found out that a high-end Cat 3 is my limit.  No 4's or 5's for this dude.  The laws of nature will always supersede the laws of man.  We've beat gravity with satellite launches and the like, but eventually they do return to earth.  Nature doesn't read the law books or understand edicts or proclamations.  Nature uses forces and the X factor.  The unknown when and where does is show up?  No one can predict that.  Who remembers the tsunami that wiped out over 225,000 in the Indian Ocean countries?  The earthquake that caused it was 1000 miles away or so.  Who can accurately predict the wave height, gallons of water coming, or speed?  Maybe we can be close with the estimates.  Who can evacuate that many people?  Can anyone find enough places for that many people in short notice?  Plus, all the other needs, medicine, food, hygiene, etc.?  It will never be easy to evacuate a population of any significance.  It takes time and that is usually in short supply during an emergency. 

Someone previously stated something to the effect of "...yeah I turned my phone on do not disturb at bedtime".  Yep, I'm guilty of that at times.  Anyone else guilty?  Hindsight usually has 20/20 vision.   Before it is all over there will be plenty of blame to go around.  

Best of luck, Divine Intervention, or whatever it takes for the recovery teams and to those volunteers putting boots on the ground.  

 

Edited by Bevo&Pevo
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Posted
55 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Someone previously stated something to the effect of "...yeah I turned my phone on do not disturb at bedtime".  Yep, I'm guilty of that at times.  Anyone else guilty?  Hindsight usually has 20/20 vision.   Before it is all over there will be plenty of blame to go around.  

Emergency alerts punch through DnD, but people started turning them off after the State started to abuse it with the BLUE ALERTS for a cop stubbing their baby toe 500 miles away

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Emergency alerts punch through DnD, but people started turning them off after the State started to abuse it with the BLUE ALERTS for a cop stubbing their baby toe 500 miles away

“Some people put their phones on DND, so let’s just do nothing” - the state 

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Posted (edited)

Heavy rain firing back up in the highland lakes basin, north and west of Austin.  Lake Travis now up 19.3 feet since 8 AM Friday to a level of 656.9, and Lake Buchanan up 8.6 feet to a level of 1,011.17.  

image.png.8e59c2496ceaa009988c8f9e66938daa.png

I'd predicted around a 20' rise for Travis but I was really hoping it'd get all the way to 660.  It could still go up a few inches or a foot over the next few days, but I don't think it'll quite hit 660 now.

Edited by utee94
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

“Some people put their phones on DND, so let’s just do nothing” - the state 

The phones at the beginning of the flood were as silent as the county staff. (Post article)

image.png.35fc02e7c4e0c184897794ba184c3e9d.png

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

  We've all heard the "wolf" cry before.  Maybe some do leave, most will not.  When does personal responsibility and self-awareness kick in?  I saw a vid yesterday of a man who lived on the river.  During his interview he stated, " I had no idea this could happen". Seriously? This event isn't just about the young lives lost.  There are at least another 50 plus out there.  I don't pretend to have the most accurate up to the minute count.  KFDM is the source I used this morning.

ymiz7ud5lm461.jpg

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Posted
31 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Heavy rain firing back up in the highland lakes basin, north and west of Austin.  Lake Travis now up 19.3 feet since 8 AM Friday to a level of 656.9, and Lake Buchanan up 8.6 feet to a level of 1,011.17.  

I'd predicted around a 20' rise for Travis but I was really hoping it'd get all the way to 660.  It could still go up a few inches or a foot over the next few days, but I don't think it'll quite hit 660 now.

 

I dont think you are taking into account that the 24 hour rainfall numbers for LCRA show no fewer than 20 rain gauges that end up in Buchanan, LBJ or LT, showing over 1 inch of rain in the last 24 hours (4 of those showing more than 2 inches), plus its still raining in some parts of the drainage basin, with the ground being soaked already, a lot of that rain is going to end up in LT. 

 

I know its a metric fuckton of rain to take it from 657 to 660... but there will be runoff for at least another week (probably 2) hitting the 3 main lakes, 

I think 660 is almost a certainty in the next week. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I dont think you are taking into account that the 24 hour rainfall numbers for LCRA show no fewer than 20 rain gauges that end up in Buchanan, LBJ or LT, showing over 1 inch of rain in the last 24 hours (4 of those showing more than 2 inches), plus its still raining in some parts of the drainage basin, with the ground being soaked already, a lot of that rain is going to end up in LT. 

 

I know its a metric fuckton of rain to take it from 657 to 660... but there will be runoff for at least another week (probably 2) hitting the 3 main lakes, 

I think 660 is almost a certainty in the next week. 

Sure hope so, I wouldn't complain.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Emergency alerts punch through DnD, but people started turning them off after the State started to abuse it with the BLUE ALERTS for a cop stubbing their baby toe 500 miles away

The number of Blue Alerts is miniscule to the number of Amber Alerts in the middle of the night. I'm not getting out of bed to look outside to see if that kid from the Panhandle has somehow made it to my neighborhood in Austin. 

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Posted

TX Flood Update (Mon AM)
 

  • Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain possible today across central Texas and the Hill Country

 

  • Persons including response personnel must remain aware of rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared to take quick action

 Forecast: 

Mid level trough axis that has plagued central Texas since late last week continues over the region this morning situated with a tropical air mass with extremely high moisture levels. This pattern continues to support periodic episodes of heavy rainfall over central Texas and the Hill Country, but storm motions have been faster in the last day or so and organization of cells less compared to both Thursday and Friday nights when anchored and slow moving cells produce prodigious rainfall totals in short order. 

 While guidance continues to suggest portions of this area could see additional heavy rainfall and extreme totals of up to 10 inches in a short period of time the exact location of any such occurrence is in question and low confidence. However, such totals would result in rapid onset flash flooding given background conditions over the area.

 Trough axis should finally begin to break down into Tuesday with lowering chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over this part of the state.

 Rivers: 

All rivers have passed recent flood flows downstream into receiving lakes that have and continue to hold inflows due to extremely low pool levels in this area from the ongoing longer term drought. There are no significant ongoing impacts along any of the rivers, although the following are running above base flow this morning:

 

  • Guadalupe River
  • San Gabriel River
  • Upper San Saba River (Near Mason TX)
  • Leon River
  • Sandy Creek at Kingsland TX

 None of these rivers or creeks are currently at levels nor forecasted to rise to levels that would cause any significant impacts.

 Guadalupe River Flood Disaster:

 A USGS team was able to reach the Hunt, TX river gage over the weekend and was able to establish from the gage data and high water mark an elevation of 37.52 ft. While data evaluation is still ongoing…the preliminary information suggests this is a flood of record at Hunt, TX surpassing the flood of 1932 of 36.60 ft. The following table is a list of the top 5 all-time flood elevations for the Hunt, TX gage:

 

  1. 37.52 ft (July 4, 2025)
  2. 36.60 ft (July 2, 1932)
  3. 28.40 ft (July 17, 1987)
  4. 23.50 ft (August 2, 1978)
  5. 22.80 ft (October 19, 1985)

 It is interesting to note that the top 3 all-time floods at this site all occurred in the month of July.

 At Kerrville, TX a peak gage height of 34.29 ft was recorded making this event the 3rd highest on record for this location behind the July 1932 and July 1987 floods. The following table is a list of the top 5 all-time flood elevations for the Kerrville, TX gage:

 

  1. 39.0 ft (July 2, 1932)
  2. 37.72 ft (July 17, 1987)
  3. 34.29 ft (July 4, 2025)
  4. 17.93 ft (November 11, 2000)
  5. 17.73 ft (October 28, 1996)

 The Kerrville gage rose from 1.82 ft at 5:15 am to a peak of 34.29 ft at 6:45 am or 32.47 ft in 1.5 hrs.

 With the number of fatalities surpassing 80 on Sunday, this TX flood event appears to be the deadliest non-tropical flood event in American history since the 1979 Big Thompson Canyon Flood in Colorado which claimed 144 lives. 

 

 

Jeff Lindner

Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

Harris County Flood Control District

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Deej said:

The number of Blue Alerts is miniscule to the number of Amber Alerts in the middle of the night. I'm not getting out of bed to look outside to see if that kid from the Panhandle has somehow made it to my neighborhood in Austin. 

Why do you hate the children

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Posted

Update:
Same old song. Not a lot of change. We've already seen the NW counties from ATX running with some spotty heavy rain. Already flash flood warnings in Llano, Burnet, and a few other counties N. of Williamson.

Although the system has definitely weakened a little, there is so much oversaturated air at both low and mid atmospheric levels (tropical characteristic) that rain can pile up again. Right now most of the rain is concentrated NE of Austin with a few lines N/NW all heading N.  Our immediate counties as well as Kerr are so far more or less dry.

Only two things really for today:
1) Rain will continue and there's as always with this the potential of pinpoint heavy rain, though I don't think to the degree and coverage of the weekend. Here's a key portion of NWS's latest discussion, though this is now about 8 hrs. old; I'd expect the new one to be pretty much the same:

The favored areas continue to be the I-35 corridor into the
Hill Country with a slight spread toward the Edwards Plateau later
in the morning. Forecast storm motion vectors have sped up a little
compared to recent days. This may somewhat lessen rainfall amounts.
However, locally heavy rains of 2 to 4 inches are expected with up
to 10 inches still possible. These rainfall amounts may cause flash
and possibly renewed river flooding in the watch area. It must be
noted that models vary considerably on where the heaviest rains will
occur within the watch area. The showers and thunderstorms will
dissipate with loss of heating Monday evening.

2) No one can predict narrowly where the big rains will hit. Just can't do it, it's currently not possible with the technology. One reason is that the storm doesn't even know until the combos of convection, movement, heat/cold ratios, and a lot of other stuff happen at that time. So the best advice is to just use caution when being near natural running water today as usual.

This storm has defied several predictions of moving out now. It's simply cut off from any steering (and I can tell you that many times in the past here I've posted to always be careful of cutoff lows, especially those coming up from the SW. They can be disaster makers. Yes a lot of Barry's moisture came in from the SE, but it also pulled in huge moisture and convection from Flossie, a Pacific storm that flowed in from the SW.

Otherwise, Austin should be business as usual today - mostly cloudy with periods of rain, some possibly heavy. Remote possibility of flooding rains, but more likely N and W of the city. Again, watch for diurnal heating to cause more widespread rain (mostly moderate with heavy pockets) towards mid-late afternoon.

I keep saying I'll try to be back with a "final" post of this episode, but it keeps hanging around. So until it doesn't and if need be, I'll try to post.

If I ever do get to a "final" post on this episode, I'll pass along a few personal comments on all this plus some tips or advice that hopefully will help some to know when to pay attention, and to what weather developments with these types of lows, in the future. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I dont think you are taking into account that the 24 hour rainfall numbers for LCRA show no fewer than 20 rain gauges that end up in Buchanan, LBJ or LT, showing over 1 inch of rain in the last 24 hours (4 of those showing more than 2 inches), plus its still raining in some parts of the drainage basin, with the ground being soaked already, a lot of that rain is going to end up in LT. 

 

I know its a metric fuckton of rain to take it from 657 to 660... but there will be runoff for at least another week (probably 2) hitting the 3 main lakes, 

I think 660 is almost a certainty in the next week. 

Llano and Pedernales are flowing quite nicely right now. I think that has to have a quality impact on Travis.  I could be wrong.  The elevation increase is taking longer.  

image.png.c809d0a2cb2d64ae382508777a24babf.png

Either way, we haven't seen numbers like this since April 2022!

image.thumb.png.3a888fc2b59fbc3b18783ae9ab69726c.png

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Llano and Pedernales are flowing quite nicely right now. I think that has to have a quality impact on Travis.  I could be wrong.  The elevation increase is taking longer.  

Either way, we haven't seen numbers like this since April 2022!

Streamflows in the 2K-5K range tend to move the lake by inches.  It takes streamflows in the 20K+ range like we saw on Saturday, to move it by multiple feet, especially the closer we get to 680.  It has substantially tapered off since its peak 2 days ago despite some heavy rains yesterday.

image.png.4cf889cc1a451a592d91cb42280f80d2.png

But, there's still quite a bit of rain out there. It would be great to see LT hit 660 or even greater, as a result of all of this.  It's gone up 1/10th just in the time we've been discussing it this morning.

 

Edited by utee94
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