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Posted
55 minutes ago, bluto said:

Really dig how they/rubio point out Iran played every us president going back 35 yrs… when that includes trump 

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Posted
I wonder if Israel thinks they can trigger an internal uprising in Iran?  Damage the power structure enough that the younger generations see an opportunity?

I remember after 9/11 everyone was calling for a regime change...
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, bolverk said:

We've had a long back-and-forth argument on the topic over in DT with, as I'm sure you can imagine, many arguing all the various risk factors of toppling the regime (e.g., internal power struggles between the mullahs, the IRGC, the "street," breakaway regions, various ethnic groups, etc.) being reminded by one side of the debate, and the other side calling them racist for not believing that Iranians are capabable of handling their internal business.

Of course, the Kassandras amongst us were not suggesting that Iranians aren't capable, but that shit has a tendency to spin out of control in power vacuums, regardless of ethnicity. It's basically the same belief as was held going into Iraq that we'll be "greeted with flowers", but this time we might not even be present for the fireworks show -- just watching from afar as Iranian society collapses.

Obviously, there's no guarantee that any specific result occurs, no matter how desirable or destructive, but weighing the potential risk factors is apparently a real no-no. For my part, I hope it works out fine, but I do have strong doubts, given all the players involved in Iran, Israel, the US, and elsewhere.

No lessons learned from Iraq and the rise of ISIS. The US directly created the power vacuum that led the dominos falling to that disastrous outcome. 

This time we're magnitudes weaker as an economic force, with national debt approaching $40 trillion, and most traces of competence gutted out of the federal government and armed forces. 

This is a giant crap shoot that didn't need to be taken, but now there's no going back. And no way for anyone in the government to know what direction this will head in. 

I spent last night partying in New Orleans where they like to say party like you won't see tomorrow, because historically speaking many of us here don't. Might not be long before a large percentage of us in this country don't see the next day at this rate. 

 

Edited by Hermanator
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Posted
Yes, since the Israeli attacks on Iranian military heads, Netanyahu has publicly called for the people to overthrow the government. 
This is what I don't get. Let's say the Iranian youths do rise up, let's say they are successful, let's say they install a secular government. What makes him think that secular government will be okay with an apartheid state in Israel?

Or is it just hoping for a forever war?
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Posted

I assumed but needed to confirm it for myself...

Believe it or not over at TexAgs political forum they unanimously agree this was a great idea, had to be done.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Oh no, he doesn’t have that tool in his bag on this?! How will he get by and survive?! The trap has been laid…

 

line of thinking is so fuckin stupid and a decade or more late. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, tchookem said:
32 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:
Yes, since the Israeli attacks on Iranian military heads, Netanyahu has publicly called for the people to overthrow the government. 

This is what I don't get. Let's say the Iranian youths do rise up, let's say they are successful, let's say they install a secular government. What makes him think that secular government will be okay with an apartheid state in Israel?

People who are attacked frequently side with those attacking them and work hard to acquiesce to the beliefs and wishes of their attackers. I'm sure whatever comes out of Iran will love the US and Israel and won't want revenge. Just like Iraq since 2003. Complete love for us. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, BurgleBro said:

I assumed but needed to confirm it for myself...

Believe it or not over at TexAgs political forum they unanimously agree this was a great idea, had to be done.


Republicans are disingenuous cunts

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Posted
21 minutes ago, BurgleBro said:

I assumed but needed to confirm it for myself...

Believe it or not over at TexAgs political forum they unanimously agree this was a great idea, had to be done.

They aren't pro-war, they aren't anti-war

They are just pro-Trump.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, bluto said:

Oh no, he doesn’t have that tool in his bag on this?! How will he get by and survive?! The trap has been laid…

 

line of thinking is so fuckin stupid and a decade or more late. 

Yeah man. These people have their head stuck in the 1990s...or up their ass. Same thing.

Posted

I think this is their hope. But it never works like that. You bomb someone and then they drop their focus (temporarily) on internal enemies and jointly focus on the external enemy.

The last thing Bibi wants is a stable Iranian government that represents the will of its people and its sanctions lifted. (Saudi Arabia would also vote no on that scenario.) A chaotic, impoverished, suffering Iran makes for the best security for Israel and Saudi Arabia. So that is what will happen. Maybe they get a civil war out of it (for which we declare as progress towards a free Iran), but more likely it will just be continued bombings, destroying infrastructure and destabilizing the country. It’s harder to convert an adversary than it is to keep them weak.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I've obtained a photo showing the complete list of government officials involved in the decision for US bombs to hit Iran's nuclear facilities. 

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Then the one on the right got a call from Putin 

Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

You're counting on the American electorate to save us?

The American Electorate 

 

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Edited by Surly Bevo
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Posted
21 minutes ago, Homercles said:

there’s evidence from satellite photos that a convoy of trucks removed material a couple days ago

Where are you seeing this?

Posted

 

Translation: Let us not worry about the future after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Iran will not suffer from civil war and instability. We have a plan for Iran's future and its prosperity. We are ready for the first hundred days after the fall, the transition period, and the establishment of a national and democratic government, for the Iranian people and by the Iranian people.

 I don't know what percentage of Iranians are good with this, but it's the only realistic regime change plan they have right now. 

 

Posted
 
Translation: Let us not worry about the future after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Iran will not suffer from civil war and instability. We have a plan for Iran's future and its prosperity. We are ready for the first hundred days after the fall, the transition period, and the establishment of a national and democratic government, for the Iranian people and by the Iranian people.
 I don't know what percentage of Iranians are good with this, but it's the only realistic regime change plan they have right now. 
 

What about the realistic plan WE have for their transition and rebuilding?
First…you need a tremendous real estate developer, the best in the world, who can develop real estate at levels no one has ever seen before…..Trump Tower Tehran, coming to save the day!
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Posted
20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Translation: Let us not worry about the future after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Iran will not suffer from civil war and instability. We have a plan for Iran's future and its prosperity. We are ready for the first hundred days after the fall, the transition period, and the establishment of a national and democratic government, for the Iranian people and by the Iranian people.

 I don't know what percentage of Iranians are good with this, but it's the only realistic regime change plan they have right now. 

 

Yeah because no one gives a shit about what Iranians are good with more than the Pahlavis

Posted
15 hours ago, westexhorn said:

At least Saudi Arabia won't pursue nukes now.  If Iran obtained nukes, the gulf states, particular Saudi was going to have to do it as well.

Not trying to be snarky here, but so much of this is beyond irony and I can’t tell: are you serious?
Because whatever effect this had on Iran’s nuclear program,  it utterly destroyed the global nuclear nonproliferation regime that has been largely successful over the last 35 years. Every country on earth that can afford it will now accelerate their efforts to develop at least tactical nuclear capability. Furthermore, it’s entirely likely this will also accelerate the transition of nuclear weapons from state to private assets in authoritarian countries of the Eastern Hemisphere over the next 30-40 years, akin to the “family atomics” in Dune. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Where are you seeing this?

Shit someone probably told Papa Putin, or it was just so predictable.  Then again it’s hot there so maybe a slew of Kona Ice making bank
 

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/22/satellite-images-show-activity-at-irans-fordo-before-us-air-strikes.html

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nuclear-strikes-us-donald-trump-fordow-satellite-imagery-unusual-activity-2088918
 

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Posted

Centrifuges don't seem particularly quick and easy to transport, particularly in open top dump trucks. Maybe packing them into the underground tunnels to serve as blast walls?

Posted
1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 I don't know what percentage of Iranians are good with this, but it's the only realistic regime change plan they have right now. 

 

Since when did out regime change operations involve any real imagination. 

Posted

Yeah that’s where I wonder what exactly they were moving…as we saw with Stutz net, those centrifuges are unbelievably fragile and susceptible to even minor disruption.  Makes sense as they spin at something like 30,000rpm and even interrupting the power will destroy them.  &nbsp

My basic understanding is that the enrichment cascade is the most challenging and resource-intensive getting from ~5% to ~60% or so.  After that, the process moves along much faster.  It’s possible they were unloading their latest batch of enriched Uranium hexafluoride, or whatever raw materials (like yellow cake) out before the expected strike.  

Dont get me wrong…taking out a seriously hardened facility like that is a good thing in general, but everyone on planet earth knew we had plans on precisely how to take it out without any regional bases so seems this wasn’t some crippling blow beyond losing the facility.  

Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Is it possible we even get actual confirmation on Fordow damage? Iranian and Trump regimes will lie through their teeth. 

 

Yeah, I don't know that the military can even tell with satellites how successful that strike was.  They can estimate, but I don't think they can know how much damage they really did.  And they also can't know how much Iran moved, or, crucially, how much infrastructure Iran has elsewhere that we never knew about in the first place.

I'm afraid there is a very real chance that this strike only set them back a matter of months, or maybe not at all.

Posted

Everyone on the planet who has been paying even a little bit of attention knew exactly what the US’s plan of attack was down to weapons, aircraft and targets. It’s not like this was some big surprise. I have no idea what the logistics are of moving the highly specialized equipment out of these facilities, but Iran certainly had the opportunity to make plans ahead of time. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Centrifuges don't seem particularly quick and easy to transport, particularly in open top dump trucks. Maybe packing them into the underground tunnels to serve as blast walls?

That’s a pretty good theory actually



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