Jump to content

Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Strikes Again


StassneyHorn

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm not nearly as sunny as you guys are.  everything was saying biden +4 and 5 in 2020, things like +7 and +8 in Michigan, WI, MN, and we got a nail biter.  now it's all trump +1.

polls never get settled until it's 1 on 1.  i know for all practical purposes, it's trump, but it's not officially trump yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

polls never get settled until it's 1 on 1.  i know for all practical purposes, it's trump, but it's not officially trump yet.

I keep hearing that a large number of voters don't even realize yet that Trump is going to be the nominee.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Prepare your anus 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

re:show my work.  

 

i agree with jimmyjazz and don't know myself why i cited the polls.  we're just all educated folks and addicted to numbers as the ultimate arbiter of truth.  even though the polls sucked ass 2016, 2018 and 2020.

but this was the common feeling going into the election 2020: 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020?&page=2

Biden +5 PA, +2 AZ, +2 OH, +8 MI, + 8 WI.  

That added up to 538 saying Biden with 400+ EV as the most likely result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

anyhow, i didn't think it was a controversial post.  i feel like this whole board went into the election confident last time and ended up chewing our nails off.

 

but eddie and HG are right.  even what little faith i have in polls now, i should have even less when we don't have the matchup figured out yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I keep hearing that a large number of voters don't even realize yet that Trump is going to be the nominee.

Oh please, a large number are delusional enough right now to believe it somehow won't be Biden or Trump.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

re:show my work.  

 

i agree with jimmyjazz and don't know myself why i cited the polls.  we're just all educated folks and addicted to numbers as the ultimate arbiter of truth.  even though the polls sucked ass 2016, 2018 and 2020.

but this was the common feeling going into the election 2020: 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020?&page=2

Biden +5 PA, +2 AZ, +2 OH, +8 MI, + 8 WI.  

That added up to 538 saying Biden with 400+ EV as the most likely result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

anyhow, i didn't think it was a controversial post.  i feel like this whole board went into the election confident last time and ended up chewing our nails off.

 

but eddie and HG are right.  even what little faith i have in polls now, i should have even less when we don't have the matchup figured out yet.

Please do not forget 2020 was a massive non-responsive bias by Trump voters.  Biden voters were more likely to be home and answer the phone during lockdowns.  Trump voters didn't give a shit about things like staying home.

We had the exact opposite in 2022-23 - non-response bias by Biden voters/Dems and that's why the red wave was a trickle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

If Trump were to die before the election his base would think the deep state killed him and I have no idea what they would do beyond get grifted by Don Jr and crew. I don't mean that in only terms of voting, I mean there would be tens of millions of loose cannons, cult members without a leader. I would expect violence. I think you're way too in the box here.

Electorally, who knows. The timing would be really important given the logistics of getting other names on the ballot. Rs might suffer depressed turnout on the MAGA side but Haley could pull center right voters from the Biden coalition. It's a low probability event so not going to waste a ton of time on in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh please, a large number are delusional enough right now to believe it somehow won't be Biden or Trump.

 

Yeah, but this refers to the people who vote but don't follow politics, and legit don't know it's gonna be Trump. I do not personally know anyone like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are the odds that Nicki becomes the VP nominee for Trump though? Checks the box of DEI in gender and perhaps they get mileage out of the Indian thing and she's Trump's version of Kamala Harris? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

When she loses and has to kiss his ass, she'll have to commit to the bit that she's a foreigner, and would be therefore ineligible as VP.

Not only that, he would not be able to stand that, if he died in office, a non-white woman would follow him as POTUS. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It'll be a white man. I know all the latest rumors are it'll be Stefanik but c'mon, look at her. We all know how much Trump values someone who looks out of "central casting." She doesn't have that look.

I could see Vance, but Trump also doesn't like men with beards and if he shaves he'll look like he's 12.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Trump cares 0.0% about what happens when he’s not around. 

You know damn well he wants to set up Ivanka as the first female POTUS.  Because Trump dynasties are okay. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It'll be a white man. I know all the latest rumors are it'll be Stefanik but c'mon, look at her. We all know how much Trump values someone who looks out of "central casting." She doesn't have that look.

I could see Vance, but Trump also doesn't like men with beards and if he shaves he'll look like he's 12.

Which is why I think it will be an attractive white woman. Noem, Mace, etc.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn't quite sure where to put this so this seems as good a place as any: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/fake-joe-biden-robocall-tells-new-hampshire-democrats-not-vote-tuesday-rcna134984

Quote

MANCHESTER, N.H. — The New Hampshire attorney general's office says it is investigating what appears to be an "unlawful attempt" at voter suppression after NBC News reported on a robocall impersonating President Joe Biden telling recipients not to vote in Tuesday's presidential primary.

"Although the voice in the robocall sounds like the voice of President Biden, this message appears to be artificially generated based on initial indications," the attorney generals office said in a statement. "These messages appear to be an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election and to suppress New Hampshire voters. New Hampshire voters should disregard the content of this message entirely."

The investigation comes after a prominent New Hampshire Democrat, whose personal cell phone number showed up on the caller ID of those receiving the call, filed a complaint.

“What a bunch of malarkey,” the robocall phone message begins, echoing a favorite term Biden has uttered before.

LISTEN: Fake Biden robocall tells voters to skip New Hampshire primary

JAN. 22, 202400:28

The message says that “it’s important that you save your vote for the November election.”

“Voting this Tuesday only enables the Republicans in their quest to elect Donald Trump again. Your vote makes a difference in November, not this Tuesday,” it says.

The message concludes with a phone number belonging to Kathy Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair who is now running a super PAC supporting the campaign to urge New Hampshire Democrats to write in Biden’s name in the primary. 

If you received this robocall or have more information on it, contact NBC News here.

Biden’s name does not appear on Tuesday’s ballot, a consequence of state elections officials setting the date of the primary ahead of South Carolina’s on Feb. 3, the first sanctioned contest of the 2024 nominating race under new Democratic National Committee rules.

But local supporters launched the late write-in effort as a way to both marshal support for Biden and send a message to the national party about the Granite State’s coveted, centurylong tradition of holding the nation’s first primary.

In an interview, Sullivan said she began receiving calls Sunday evening from those who had received the message. One woman she spoke to told her that Biden had called her, though she said she was not a Biden supporter.

“I said, ‘You got a call from Joe Biden, and he gave you my number?’” Sullivan said she responded.

A volunteer for the write-in effort also received the call and recorded it, according to Sullivan, and shared it with organizers of the Biden write-in campaign. One of the organizers then shared it with NBC News.

It’s not clear how many voters received the call or which types of voters were targeted. Lists of voters’ phone numbers can be readily purchased from data brokers.

And Sullivan said that while it isn’t clear who is behind the robocall, “It’s obviously somebody who wants to hurt Joe Biden.”

“I want them to be prosecuted to the fullest extent possible because this is an attack on democracy,” said Sullivan, an attorney, who believes the call could violate several laws. “I’m not going to let it go. I want to know who’s paying for it? Who knew about it? Who benefits?”

She said she also plans to engage federal law enforcement.

Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said "the campaign is actively discussing additional actions to take immediately."

Sullivan served as party chair in 2002, when a so-called phone-jamming effort was carried out during a hotly contested U.S. Senate race. Two Republican officials, including the executive director of the state Republican Party and a Republican National Committee operative, were convicted of using computer-generated phone calls to disrupt Democrats’ get-out-the-vote call center operations.  

State officials are speaking out against the calls.

New Hampshire’s Secretary of State, David Scanlan, said the calls “reinforce a national concern about the effect of artificial intelligence on campaigns.”

Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., said she hopes the attempt to dampen turnout for Biden will backfire.

"I urge Granite Staters to make sure their friends and neighbors know the truth and turn out in even bigger numbers to write in President Biden’s name," she said.

The campaign of Dean Phillips, the Minnesota congressman challenging Biden for the nomination, said it was not aware of the calls but called it “wildly concerning.”

“Any effort to discourage voters is disgraceful and an unacceptable affront to democracy,” spokesperson Katie Dolan said. “The potential use of AI to manipulate voters is deeply disturbing.”

A spokesperson for Trump’s campaign denied any connection to the call, saying, “Not us, we have nothing to do with it.”

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This may seem like a small thing, but for the people most affected by these exorbitant fees, this is big:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/biden-administration-plans-to-slash-overdraft-fees-at-big-banks.html

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday proposed a set of new rules that would slash the fees banks charge customers for withdrawing more than the available funds in their account.

Americans have paid an estimated $280 billion in overdraft fees since 2000, according to data from the consumer watchdog agency. Over the same period, major banks have steadily boosted profits.

 

“For too long, some banks have charged exorbitant overdraft fees — sometimes $30 or more — that often hit the most vulnerable Americans the hardest, all while banks pad their bottom lines,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “Banks call it a service — I call it exploitation.”

However, banking groups and some on Capitol Hill think the rules would limit a service that many financially vulnerable Americans rely on.

The proposal now faces a lengthy regulatory approval process, a period during which the public can provide feedback. For now, the proposed changes are set to take effect in October 2025

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, BeardIP said:

What are the odds that Nicki becomes the VP nominee for Trump though? Checks the box of DEI in gender and perhaps they get mileage out of the Indian thing and she's Trump's version of Kamala Harris? 

Zero, she's criticized him. SD Governor is your female VP nominee if they go that route.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Though I'm of the @Js1school of thought that Polls and Polling is a broken, non-value metric from a bygone era, this was interesting from NYTimes:

Quote

 

The disconnect between polls and the economy

Stocks are in record territory, interest rates are expected to fall, jobs seem plentiful — but none of that strong economic data is bolstering President Biden’s standing with voters. Many polls find him trailing the Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, in key states.

Now, the White House is sending out the big guns to try to change the narrative.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will head to the Midwest this week to talk up Biden’s economic accomplishments, including the $1.2 trillion infrastructure law. And she’s expected to take swipes at Trump’s economic record as president.

Yellen’s trip comes after a high-profile speech yesterday by Lael Brainard, the president’s top economic adviser, who delivered a rosy view of how the administration’s policies have created jobs in disadvantaged communities.

Americans are feeling better about the economy. But those improved vibes are up from a low in summer 2022, when inflation soared to a 40-year high. Prices have come down in recent months, but economists warn they could tick up again. A top concern: Attacks by the Houthi militia on commercial vessels in the Red Sea are pushing up shipping prices, which could make goods and fuel more expensive.

The stronger data is not translating into more support for Biden. Voters may look past job gains and pay little heed to the U.S. economy’s growth relative to its biggest trading partners. Instead, they’re likely to focus on what they’re seeing in the shopping aisles. “The fact that the price level is higher than when Biden took office is what voters are picking up,” Ray Fair, an economist at Yale, told The Times.

Fair has been tracking for years how economic data influences voter behavior. Despite the recent uptick in consumer sentiment, his latest model suggested that the Democrats had a 50-50 chance of retaking the White House, and a similar probability for regaining the House. (Those odds are slightly better than what the polls say.)

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/business/economy/economic-confidence-biden.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Do people really remember what they paid for eggs and such two years ago compared to today?

I don't even remember what I paid for the eggs at the grocery store 3 days ago. 

  • Hook 'Em 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They need to do more compilations of Trump being senile. If that is the pressure point for some people, Joe being too old, they can fight that head on so if it becomes a choice between two old brain foggy guys, Biden is the better brain foggy guy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

dunno about HEB but in Denver happy eggs are WAAAY cheaper at Trader Joe's than anywhere else (like almost $5 cheaper!! 😮). god Safeway sucks 😒

I don't believe Happy eggs are at HEB.

Their best eggs, hands down, at HEB are the Central Market Pasture Raised eggs.

Nice orange yolk with lots of flavor.

$4.99 or so for a dozen. $0.42/egg. That drops to $0.41 if you buy the 18 pack. Outside of the egg crisis last year, that price has been pretty steady for awhile.

You can pay more and get the organic pasture raise for a buck more or even soy free organic pasture raised for an additional $1.50.

They even recently came out with pasture raised  heirloom eggs with all the different colors. I don't remember the price.

I used to get the free range 2 dozen pack from Costco. It was cheaper ... $7.50ish if I remember correctly. They were good, but not great. They was a distinct drop off in flavor IMO.

But if I had to do a ton of baking I would get the Costco pack to save some $.

The fam insists on the central market ones now so that's my go to (the regulars as I don't see the value proposition in the organic ones... What's an organic chicken anyways?!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

What's an organic chicken anyways

One that can actually walk.

Sorry to go dark, but the poultry industry is the cruelest.  It sucks because drumsticks taste good.  Omelettes taste good.

Since I'm not eating much red meat I'm trying to spend a bit of money for lack of cruelty, but I honestly am not that well informed.

As far as eggs go, I'm doing egg whites more and more.  Frankly don't even know the whole backstory on the most humane egg whites.

When shopping around, be sure to look for "Certified Humane" and, even better, "Animal Welfare Approved" stickers on your eggs. They're your best bet if you love egg products but want to be sure the hens laying them are being treated well.Oct 19, 2018
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

One that can actually walk.

Sorry to go dark, but the poultry industry is the cruelest.  It sucks because drumsticks taste good.  Omelettes taste good.

Since I'm not eating much red meat I'm trying to spend a bit of money for lack of cruelty, but I honestly am not that well informed.

As far as eggs go, I'm doing egg whites more and more.  Frankly don't even know the whole backstory on the most humane egg whites.

When shopping around, be sure to look for "Certified Humane" and, even better, "Animal Welfare Approved" stickers on your eggs. They're your best bet if you love egg products but want to be sure the hens laying them are being treated well.Oct 19, 2018

But the cruelty tastes so good.......

Seriously though, I assumed if it's pasture raised it's the most human.

I also assume that Pasture raised + organic means that they feed the chickens organic feed.

I'm too cheap to pay $1 more for organic feed for chickens as I don't even eat 100% organic.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I don't believe Happy eggs are at HEB.

Their best eggs, hands down, at HEB are the Central Market Pasture Raised eggs.

Nice orange yolk with lots of flavor.

$4.99 or so for a dozen. $0.42/egg. That drops to $0.41 if you buy the 18 pack. Outside of the egg crisis last year, that price has been pretty steady for awhile.

You can pay more and get the organic pasture raise for a buck more or even soy free organic pasture raised for an additional $1.50.

They even recently came out with pasture raised  heirloom eggs with all the different colors. I don't remember the price.

I used to get the free range 2 dozen pack from Costco. It was cheaper ... $7.50ish if I remember correctly. They were good, but not great. They was a distinct drop off in flavor IMO.

But if I had to do a ton of baking I would get the Costco pack to save some $.

The fam insists on the central market ones now so that's my go to (the regulars as I don't see the value proposition in the organic ones... What's an organic chicken anyways?!)

 

19 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

One that can actually walk.

Sorry to go dark, but the poultry industry is the cruelest.  It sucks because drumsticks taste good.  Omelettes taste good.

Since I'm not eating much red meat I'm trying to spend a bit of money for lack of cruelty, but I honestly am not that well informed.

As far as eggs go, I'm doing egg whites more and more.  Frankly don't even know the whole backstory on the most humane egg whites.

When shopping around, be sure to look for "Certified Humane" and, even better, "Animal Welfare Approved" stickers on your eggs. They're your best bet if you love egg products but want to be sure the hens laying them are being treated well.Oct 19, 2018

 

13 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

But the cruelty tastes so good.......

Seriously though, I assumed if it's pasture raised it's the most human.

I also assume that Pasture raised + organic means that they feed the chickens organic feed.

I'm too cheap to pay $1 more for organic feed for chickens as I don't even eat 100% organic.

 

Correct. Organic means they are fed with organic feed. Pasture raised means that the chickens have X amount of grazing land per bird. Some places have mobile chicken coops where they move it around their pastureland every few days so the pasture remains healthy and the chickens get to eat all the natural food in that area on top of the feed. 

The best eggs I've ever had are from a place that delivers to Austin and Houston, and is located in Fayetteville, TX. Yonder Way Farms. The eggs and their breakfast sausage, just chef's kiss.
https://yonderwayfarm.com/collections/pastured-eggs

But you're going to fucking pay for it at $9 a dozen. It was $7 before covid. But man, they're unreal. 
 

Edited by SydneyCarton
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

 

Correct. Organic means they are fed with organic feed. Pasture raised means that the chickens have X amount of grazing land per bird. Some places have mobile chicken coops where they move it around their pastureland every few days so the pasture remains healthy and the chickens get to eat all the natural food in that area on top of the feed. 

The best eggs I've ever had are from a place that delivers to Austin and Houston, and is located in Fayetteville, TX. Yonder Way Farms. The eggs and their breakfast sausage, just chef's kiss.
https://yonderwayfarm.com/collections/pastured-eggs

But you're going to fucking pay for it at $9 a dozen. It was $7 before covid. But man, they're unreal. 
 

[Googles Fayetteville]

 

Looks like I've found my new go to for some father day / birthday gifts!

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rumor spreadin' 'round
In that Texas town
About that farm outside La Grange
And you know what I'm talkin' about
Just let me know, if you wanna go
To that coup out on the range
They got a lot of nice eggs....

Have mercy
A-haw, haw, haw, haw
A-haw, haw, haw, haw

Well, I hear it's divine
If you got the time
And the ten to ship yourself in
A-hmm, hmm
And I hear supply's tight
Since COVID, right?
But now I might be mistaken
Hmm, hmm, hmm
Have mercy

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

One that can actually walk.

Sorry to go dark, but the poultry industry is the cruelest.  It sucks because drumsticks taste good.  Omelettes taste good.

Since I'm not eating much red meat I'm trying to spend a bit of money for lack of cruelty, but I honestly am not that well informed.

As far as eggs go, I'm doing egg whites more and more.  Frankly don't even know the whole backstory on the most humane egg whites.

When shopping around, be sure to look for "Certified Humane" and, even better, "Animal Welfare Approved" stickers on your eggs. They're your best bet if you love egg products but want to be sure the hens laying them are being treated well.Oct 19, 2018

Ok, now define "orgasmic" chickens

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • immamac changed the title to Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Strikes Again


×
×
  • Create New...