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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

I’m nervous about that debate because he doesn’t debate. He bullies and yells and lies a lot and will try everything in his power to create the most chaotic and bombastic atmosphere possible. There will be zero policy discussion because he doesn’t know how. It will be the NCBJ part 2. Hopefully he’ll finally say that one thing that will drop jaws and finally get rid of him. This country doesn’t need another 4 years of his and his families childish ugliness. 

His handlers can’t walk him off the stage after 30 minutes because he doesn’t like Rachel Scott’s questions. And he won’t have the guts to tell Kamala Harris to her face that he doesn’t think she’s black.

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

family guy brian GIF

Dude--it's a lie.  But that's what you should say to your deplorable friends/family to convince them to vote for RFK Jr. rather than Trump.

 

Because in politics, the truth is so precious that she must be attended at all times by a bodyguard of lies.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

On your Nebraska white guy update the guys bit hard on the Walz horse semen story to try and counter the couch fucking, and spent a weirdly long time talking about how much money it would take to get them to drink a glass of horse semen. (Spoiler there was definitely a price they’d happily do it for) 

what? 

Posted
1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Did they then turn it over to the studio where they analyzed the political ramifications of the gibberish?

I was kind of surprised they bothered covering him at all today since I didn’t think it was going to be anything worthwhile. During his administration they stopped carrying Huckabeef’s pressers entirely because she just lied so consistently. They probably showed today’s address because he announced it like it was going to be something meaningful. And yes, they addressed his lies. I can’t find a video clip but before they went to a commercial break, Nicolle Wallace read through a long list of falsehoods delivered by Trump. I didn’t catch the name of the group that put it together. And they frequently talk about the difficulty of fact-checking him in real time because of the firehose of bullshit that he spews

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Posted
My brothers, stop being pussies. Did you see the way Trump acted on the stage during the Black Journalists interview? That man cannot, with his soul, allow a race he sees as beneath him equal footing during a conversation and it showed. If he debates Kamala and she challenges him, which she will, he is going to absolutely lose his shit on live TV. We are all worried that it will be Clinton all over again, but the difference is people hated Clinton, and not so much Kamala. So when he loses it and damn near calls her the N word it won't go well for him. And you know what kind of person knows how to push someone to the very brink like that? A FUCKING PROSECUTOR that's who. This mother fucker is walking into the lion's den. All Kamala has to do is bait him and let him tell on himself.

Fortunately she has someone on her team that can give her advice on dealing with adolescent bullies.
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Posted
31 minutes ago, Blotto said:

And Biden winning in  2020 wasnt  a reflection of his performance in the debates. Basically,  a fuck ton of people were noping the fuck out after 4 years of that insane fat fuck. That hasnt changed. I doubt the debate (or debates  if he actually does more than 1,and I'm not sure thats  a certainty) will matter much. He has his base. Everyone else hates that  fuck. The more he talks, the more he drives turnout. And thats bad for Trump. 

I hadn’t really thought about it until just now, but I could totally see Trump agreeing to 3 to press Kamala to do the same, then doing the first one on Fox on his terms and bailing on the other 2 after that. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Covri said:

I hadn’t really thought about it until just now, but I could totally see Trump agreeing to 3 to press Kamala to do the same, then doing the first one on Fox on his terms and bailing on the other 2 after that. 

That’s exactly what he would end up doing. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, bolverk said:

I didn't watch the debate, and I know that Biden is old, and we've been told he was sick. But, honestly, how do you debate someone like that?

"Shut the fuck up Donnie."

"You're like a child, Donnie."

repeat as needed

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Posted
6 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I was kind of surprised they bothered covering him at all today since I didn’t think it was going to be anything worthwhile. During his administration they stopped carrying Huckabeef’s pressers entirely because she just lied so consistently. They probably showed today’s address because he announced it like it was going to be something meaningful. And yes, they addressed his lies. I can’t find a video clip but before they went to a commercial break, Nicolle Wallace read through a long list of falsehoods delivered by Trump. I didn’t catch the name of the group that put it together. And they frequently talk about the difficulty of fact-checking him in real time because of the firehose of bullshit that he spews

My point is that a Trump press conference provides content that they can sell.  Whether they cover it live, he will say asinine shit for which they will show clips and have lengthy panel discussions.  So, Trump press conferences are good for ratings.  All of the news companies have a financial interest in him doing more of them.  

I think it's great that they are doing fact checks.  I think they are more responsible company than a FoxNews or similar.  But they both have the same business model.  

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

On your Nebraska white guy update the guys bit hard on the Walz horse semen story to try and counter the couch fucking, and spent a weirdly long time talking about how much money it would take to get them to drink a glass of horse semen. (Spoiler there was definitely a price they’d happily do it for) 

I’m scared to ask wrf you’re talking about. 

12 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I was kind of surprised they bothered covering him at all today since I didn’t think it was going to be anything worthwhile. During his administration they stopped carrying Huckabeef’s pressers entirely because she just lied so consistently. They probably showed today’s address because he announced it like it was going to be something meaningful. And yes, they addressed his lies. I can’t find a video clip but before they went to a commercial break, Nicolle Wallace read through a long list of falsehoods delivered by Trump. I didn’t catch the name of the group that put it together. And they frequently talk about the difficulty of fact-checking him in real time because of the firehose of bullshit that he spews

Keep in mind that all the reporters invited to mar a lago were sycophants. It wasnt open, it was invite only. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

I don't believe in internal polls, I have never been called by an internal poller 😎

I internally poled your mom and she rated the experience as "very favorable."

2 hours ago, swraith said:

I just have a bad feeling about debating Trump.  He is a comedian/entertainer.  Not a high school debate club style debate.  I don't know what a win for Harris looks like at a debate.  Is there a debate that changes peoples votes, in the 7 swing states, in her favor? 

I'm not worried about it at all. Obviously the subject matter of the debate will not be treated at this level, but-  styles make fights. Whereas John Cornyn (for all his many flaws) is a patient man Donald Trump will not be able to handle this level of condescension well. 

 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Interesting study. As much as we love weird, pro-Harris messages resonate more with voters. 

 

 

You mean a bunch of people were uncomfortable telling a polling person that they were easily influenced by name calling? Almost like the polling on a question like that is worthless? Go figure. 
 

meanwhile the response to being called weird was loud and wildly obscure by the actual weirdos. Go figure. 
 

ir works. Keep doing it. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Interesting study. As much as we love weird, pro-Harris messages resonate more with voters. 

Yes but I know we agree - "weird" helped Harris coalesce her voters. The campaign went with it because it spoke to her supporters and those who wanted to support her. That in turn has her supporters turning out in force to her stump appearances, and donating money to her campaign like crazy, both of which show her tremendous support to those who are swayable non-supporters. Her stump speech -- and choice of Walz -- will help sway the undecideds. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Funny how Dotard was just casually tossing out dates and networks, as if there were actual agreements in place.

 

@Red Five, I challenge you to a debate on October 34th on the Longhorn Network

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Posted
2 hours ago, Thatguy said:

Everyone has 2016 PTSD. Everything that happened to Hillary Clinton is now going to be the fate of every woman, and the CHUDs that crawled out of the sewers to vote unexpectedly is now going to happen every year. Except it didn't. The world righted the ship last cycle, even with the guy who rolled out the 95 crime bill and was on record being just as much a racist back in the day as Trump. The world still held its nose and pulled the lever. This scenario is totally different. We have to finally let 2016 go.

Did you think Trump fared better in the debates than Hillary did?

Posted
yeah guys, maybe today is the day the legacy media start's covering Trump properly lol

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?
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Posted
33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is how you handle children. Stick to the first and then we will talk

And that's why I think we all just need to calm down. Maybe just maybe this lady knows how to anticipate moves because, you know, she is a prosecutor. Her messaging has been on point. Instead of the normal Dem drivel we seem to be on offense. Plus she picked a solid VP. We might just need to let go of the bike handlebars and say our little girl has got it.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

I believe the CNBC poll was “all adults”

Not even registered voters.

I think the IPSOS one was also “all adults” so it’s really generally useless. By August, you should be getting to it likely voter screens ready 

Edited by Js1
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Posted

One thing I learned from Beto losing to Cruz is that absolutely nothing motivates Republicans to get up and vote more than the sight of hopeful or enthusiastic Dems 

Posted
8 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Did you think Trump fared better in the debates than Hillary did?

No. But at that point no one knew that he was going to literally break all the rules to debate. He lied seemingly every time he opened his mouth. He talked over her, and was extremely childish. I just think she struggled to get her message across and he was a complete disruption.

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Basically all Kamala has to do is keep her cool. She'll be prepared for all the outrageous things he will say. 

 

I don’t think it’s enough to just keep your cool.  Clinton kept her cool in 2016.  Harris has got to be ready to retaliate against Trump in a way that shows she’s smarter and of higher character than he is.  It sounds easy because Trump is so stupid and such a piece of shit.  But I think it requires a lot of skill to deal with someone as unique as Trump.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Posted
11 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

Even with the stuff that others posted about who was polled, the shitty polling outfit, ALL polls within plus or minus 3 are basically 50/50 on accuracy.

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, heso said:

Can someone explain internal polling to me? Why is it different than public polling and how is it more/less accurate than typical public polling data?

Public polling can be a lot more generic and cover broad groups.  It’s the phone calls you get wanting a few answers about multiple candidates and public polling is about showing the media where candidates stand.

Internal polling is contracted out by candidates, for the consumption of those individual campaigns (not to be shared with the public or even other politicians from the same party), and it’s about shaping campaign strategies that haven’t necessary been made public.  It can be A/B testing, and it can be very tight focus groups made up of key demographics, and those people maybe asked the same question every month or so to see if a particular candidate’s image or strategy is changing.

And these focus groups are truly focus groups - they have their income levels, family demographics, if their kids are in public or private schools, where they work, how they’ve voted in the past, what sports teams they follow, what tv shows they watch, and so on.

It’s not a “do you like Donald Trump, yes or no or don’t care” it’s “watch this video clip of Donald Trump, okay after watching that do you feel that Donald Trump has provided a clear answer on abortion, and on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being strongly disagree, and 5 being unsure and 10 being strongly agree, how would you rate Donald Trump’s answer in that video clip.”  And then weeks or a month later they are asked to watch another, newer clip of Trump, one that ostensibly incorporates tweaks to his answers, to see how he’s doing.

It can be extremely detailed questions and as I said, they can be asked to the same focus group every month or every few weeks or whatever, with the reasoning being that they are tying to build up a profile of a candidate over time and public opinion of them, and seeing if tweaks to the messaging are having an impact over time.  Veep converted it a bit in some of their episodes, but I don’t remember I’d they did a deep dive, but I think they did.

Trump is a problem though  because they may finely tune the answers he should be giving, but when he starts rambling, all that expensive research is out the window.

And it’s not just questions of focus groups that help with internal polling - I have a friend that works at a data analytics company that feeds info to companies conducting internal polling, and they are contributing information on things like social media engagement, signs in yards (they will pay people to drive around counting signs in  an area), mentions in the media, what is being said on particular shows, etc.  literally something like “hey, we noticed that yard signs for Trump in Bumfuck, Wisconsin are down 52% versus 2020” and “people with Facebook profiles posting from Clitlick, Michigan are publicly talking about Trump 15% less than 2020, and they are talking about Harris 27% more than they did Biden in 2020”

ABC has a little article about it.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824

It can be extremely accurate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more accurate than public polls, it’s just more about shaping campaign strategies before they hit the public view.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
12 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

One thing I learned from Beto losing to Cruz is that absolutely nothing motivates Republicans to get up and vote more than the sight of hopeful or enthusiastic Dems 

2018 is probably not the cycle I'd use to make that case.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I don’t think it’s enough to just keep your cool.  Clinton kept her cool in 2016.  Harris has got to be ready to retaliate against Trump in a way that shows she’s smarter and of higher character than he is.  It sounds easy because Trump is so stupid and such a piece of shit.  But I think it requires a lot of skill to deal with someone as unique as Trump.

I definitely think it would be foolish to underestimate Trump. You have to be well prepared for the shit he's gonna throw out. But let's be honest, Hillary was a uniquely hated politician with below average presence on TV.  Then Biden fell flat on his face the minute he walked on stage a month ago. 

This is by far our best prizefighter so far against Trump. 

 

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