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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, given the trends over the past 3-4 elections, given that abortion is on the ballot (even if not officially, it's in a lot of people's minds), and given that the state Republicans are doing things like running Houston's school district into the ground as well as pushing school vouchers, on purpose, not to mention all of the other little things (power outages, etc.), Trump will be lucky to win by 3%.  Very lucky.

Prepare to be disappointed. The environment is shaping up to be 2020-adjacent and the transplant phenomenon and changing dynamics in South Texas are real, and counteract the emergence of Gen Z. Trump will win Texas by 6-8 again.

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Posted

Dems should make time for heartbreaking testimonials for some of the Texas women whose lives were imperiled by Republicans who rule this state with an iron hand. Should be done in prime time.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Next time don’t speak at their convention, you penis looking dope

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

I saw this guy live during their convention and seriously sat there for 5 minutes wondering why the dude from Hot Tub Time Machine was speaking at the RNC.

He was feeding

200.gif

 

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Posted

Sean O'Brien won his election for Teamsters president by appealing to Maga Teamsters.

There's alot of them, which doesn't make sense; but does when you consider that a majority of Teamsters are uneducated, and have lots of break time to spend watching conspiracy videos on YouTube that their stay home wives send them

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Posted
8 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nate said he himself, not his model, would likely give Harris 80% chance to win the EC with a 3 point lead

MOAR!!

Last update: 3 p.m., Tuesday, August 13: Not a huge volume of polling since our last update, but we continue to see new national polls coming in toward the Harris +3 to Harris +4 range, and that has boosted her overall lead over Trump to 3.1 points in our national polling average, her largest yet. That’s enough to offset some mediocre polling for Harris in Texas and Florida, which are at best on the fringe as swing states.

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

Allegedly two big national polls tomorrow - Monmouth and Quinnipiac 

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

It's probably more a primary vs general electorate thing than anything.

Dems didn’t really have many contested primaries to vote for. Winkler is a goddamn American hero for what he’s done for WI Dems since 2016. Dane came out big last night! 

If Dane comes out big again in November and Harris cuts into the WOW margins just a tiny bit more, it’s so over. Evers won Dane 79-21. Biden won it 76-23. 71-23 for Hillary. 

And she doesn’t have to do but 1-2 points better overall in the WOW counties to win comfortably 

Waukesha finished 57-43, Washington 65-35 and Ozsukee 50.1-49.9. 

2022 - Waukesha 60-40 against Evers, Washington 69-31 against Evers, Ozaukee 55-44 against Evers  and he won statewide by 3.4

2020 - Waukesha 60-40 Trump, Washington 68-30 Trump and Ozaukee 55-43

2016 - Waukesha 62-34 Trump, Washington 68-27 Trump, Ozaukee 57-39 Trump

They are one of the most stubborn suburbs in flipping blue. But Dems are making gains every cycle 

 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The hell is a WOW county?

You read that whole post and couldn't figure it out?

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The hell is a WOW county?

The traditional strongholds of Wisconsin Republicans in the Milwaukee suburbs. They are among the few suburban counties that are still hard R post-Dobbs.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Oh c’mon, Nevada!

Nevada is a difficult state to poll. Trust me, I don’t believe it. He didn’t even win it in 2016. Every damn cycle 

That is still 297 EVs 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Nevada is a difficult state to poll. Trust me, I don’t believe it. 

Well, if it helps, I have a layover in Vegas today on my way to Eugene, and I’ll be rocking my Kamala t-shirt through the airport.

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Posted

Yeah, it’s hard to think he has a better shot in Nevada than in 2020 when the hospitality union and the democratic machine can actually knock on doors and get out the vote. 

Just now, South Austin said:

Well, if it helps, I have a layover in Vegas today on my way to Eugene, and I’ll be rocking my Kamala t-shirt through the airport.

Pics of Oregon thotts or gtfo. 

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Posted
6 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Guessing Trump by 5% in Texas but just pulling that out of my ass. Lots of Trumpies have come from out of state here.

Screenshot_20240813_183249_Chrome.thumb.jpg.c2c581d33a83a31da19b45e0ecf74dfd.jpg

Will be very interesting to see how close Texas is.  There’s zero 0% chance it goes blue this year but if it keeps trending and gets closer than ~3.5% then the following cycle it should actually be in play.  Personally I think there will be a negative reaction in Texas to Harris’ race and gender and the gap will widen to 6-7%.  I hope I’m wrong.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, it’s hard to think he has a better shot in Nevada than in 2020 when the hospitality union and the democratic machine can actually knock on doors and get out the vote. 

2016 - average was Trump 0.8, Clinton won 2.4. Senate average was CCM 1.8, she won by 2.4

2018 NV Senate - avg was a tie. Rosen won by 5

2020 - nailed it - average was 2.4, Biden won by 2.4

2022 Senate - Laxalt 3.4, CCM won 0.9

Edited by Js1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Current prediction: 2020 map, flip Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Harris with 297 EV.  Trump cries fraud in PA, AZ, WI, and NC.

Yeah sorry, I'm not buying Nevada.  The GOP hasn't managed to win Nevada in 20 years.  If Hillary Clinton won it, Kamala Harris will win it. 

Also for those who don't remember - the polls for GA didn't really start to turn into Biden's favor until late-September.  And even then, Trump barely led in a number of them leading up to November. 3 of the final 5 polls had Trump winning GA.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Montana didn't like the SoB

 Some of us in Montana still dont.

Edited by Burt
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Arizona makes more sense in these polls.  That said, I don't trust shit and we have to play like we are behind.  Because we very well may be.  Because people fucking suck.

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Posted
32 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Pics of Oregon thotts or gtfo. 

You may have to settle for the UO parent milfs. I’m not going to be the creeper sneaking pics of incoming freshman.

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Texas has gotten a lot stupider over the last 4 years. I'm not holding my breath. 

 

See? It didn't get dumb! And, maybe we can convince some of the Trumpy transplants that actually holding their breath will help Trump win. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You may have to settle for the UO parent milfs. I’m not going to be the creeper sneaking pics of incoming freshman.

But video you can do, right? 



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