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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
22 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

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Posted

Dunno where tf to put this, but anyone who says their vote doesn't matter -

the Washington Public Lands Commissioner race was decided by 51 votes out of 800k cast.  Since WA does an all-party primary, with the top 2 advancing to November, a Republican grabbed the top spot, but 2nd place was between a Dem and a Rep.  The Dem won, initial vote and recount, and avoided the Dems being locked out of this race in November.

51 out 800,000 votes. 

Jamie Herrera Beutler (R) - 22.03%
Dave Upthegrove (D) - 20.82% (396,300)
Sue Kuehl Pederson (R) - 20.82% (396,249)

The actual vote was 57% Dem, 43% Rep, but the Dems ran 5 candidates and the Republicans ran 2.  WA Dems almost fucked themselves out of this race. 
 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

In addition,  the "southern drawl" is basically speaking with less mouth movement.  I definitely sound "more southern" at the end of the day or when I'm tired.   I'm sure campaigning every day for a month is gonna make most people sound "southern".

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Posted

The “Harris plans to end the free speech” from twitter yesterday that was propped up by Elmo makes me so fucking ragey. At least this morning, you’re seeing outlets and media members tweeting that it isn’t true. 

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dunno where tf to put this, but anyone who says their vote doesn't matter -

the Washington Public Lands Commissioner race was decided by 51 votes out of 800k cast.  Since WA does an all-party primary, with the top 2 advancing to November, a Republican grabbed the top spot, but 2nd place was between a Dem and a Rep.  The Dem won, initial vote and recount, and avoided the Dems being locked out of this race in November.

51 out 800,000 votes. 

Jamie Herrera Beutler (R) - 22.03%
Dave Upthegrove (D) - 20.82% (396,300)
Sue Kuehl Pederson (R) - 20.82% (396,249)

The actual vote was 57% Dem, 43% Rep, but the Dems ran 5 candidates and the Republicans ran 2.  WA Dems almost fucked themselves out of this race. 
 

Discussed above and not quite as close, but Tulsa’s mayor primary locked out a maga republican (Van Norman) by 438 votes. it was one of the worst turnouts ever, 26% of registered voters. City elections are non partisan but voter registration is easy to find and Van Norman was sure to make a big deal about how the other two were Hugo Chavez leftists (Nichols is pretty liberal, Keith is moderate life long dem). This primary result is significant because the runoff will be during the presidential election that would have brought way more magas to the poll, but now they have two dems to choose from, lol. Even if there was a maga on the ballot the city ballot doesn’t have straight line party option and the Trump only morons would have no idea who was who on a nonpartisan ballot. I wish all elections did the open primary and runoff system. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.b37dfcc574574bb5f7add4a97c16adee.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Meant to add that the asshole is asking for a recount delaying certification and ballot printing for weeks. I read that a city recount has never changed the final by more than a dozen votes. A friend of mine lost a city council race a few years ago by I think ten votes. He asked for a recount and turned out he lost by six. You ain’t finding 400 votes in a recount dumbass.

Also, the Bradford guy who got 823 votes also campaigned as a republican, if he didn’t run his votes might have gone to Van Norman and put him in the runoff, lol.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted

Ignoring the fact that he is referencing an incredibly poorly rated pollster to draw this conclusion, "Setting aside the recent good polls, there just hasn't been much positive state polling lately" is an objectively insane statement.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Is he seriously saying that if Harris moved up let’s say 2% after the convention that he’s just taking that out as if those respondents didn’t actually respond favorable to Harris? What the actual fuck? There has to be more to it than that, bumps are a big part of polling, whether they can be sustained is determined later based on subsequent campaigning.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Ignoring the fact that he is referencing an incredibly poorly rated pollster to draw this conclusion, "Setting aside the recent good polls, there just hasn't been much positive state polling lately" is an objectively insane statement.

 

 

How old is the campaign? Six weeks? "Let's just set aside the positive polls post-convention, which was two weeks ago...."

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Posted (edited)

I mean why not just go back to Biden’s last poll. “Setting aside the bump since the change in candidate we have her at 40%.” There seriously has to me more to it than his simplistic explanation.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I mean why not just go back to Biden’s last poll. “Setting aside the bump since the change in candidate we have her at 40%.” There seriously has to me more to it than his simplistic explanation.

As long as it convinces people it’s so close they need to stand in line for four hours to vote for Harris, it’s fine with me.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Nate is objectively an awful pundit. Period. 

I mean his name is Nate, no Nate’s are to be taken seriously. Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

While constantly stifling any speech he doesn’t like on twitter 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

Look at how people talk to Siri/try to use voice-to-speech for text messages.

I have a bit of a drawl normally but I subconsciously make it go away when I'm using voice recognition to send text messages.

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Posted
8 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I probably sound like a broken record, but everything makes perfect sense when you envision every scenario through the lens of a professional wrestling fantastic. That's all Trump supporters are, and they crave the drama/absurdity of it all; it doesn't go any deeper than that. Vance had some heel moments, but Trump made him a face, so literally nothing else before that moment makes any difference whatsoever. Conversely, Pence was a loyal tag-team partner for 4 years, but Trump hit him on the back of the head with a steel chair at WrestleMania and told everyone that he's a heel now, so Pence is dead to them. They only care to see what they're told to see.

orson welles applause GIF

Posted
23 minutes ago, bluto said:

I mean his name is Nate, no Nate’s are to be taken seriously. Like having a middle name of Wayne, you’re gonna murder at least one person. 

Had a BIL named Nate. Made the mistake of hitting my sister.

She beat and stabbed him, allegedly.

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Posted

Turnip continuing to call for an October shutdown over the SAVE Act. Which…it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote. 

Mike Johnson has not commented on that

Another GOP-pushed shutdown as an October surprise?

Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

The “Harris plans to end the free speech” from twitter yesterday that was propped up by Elmo makes me so fucking ragey. At least this morning, you’re seeing outlets and media members tweeting that it isn’t true. 

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

And then he'll censor/ban someone from Twitter for something he doesn't like.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dunno where tf to put this, but anyone who says their vote doesn't matter -

the Washington Public Lands Commissioner race was decided by 51 votes out of 800k cast.  Since WA does an all-party primary, with the top 2 advancing to November, a Republican grabbed the top spot, but 2nd place was between a Dem and a Rep.  The Dem won, initial vote and recount, and avoided the Dems being locked out of this race in November.

Yep - 2018 Florida Senate election

Rick Scott:  4,099,505

Bill Nelson: 4,089,472

50.05%  vs  49.93%

10,033 votes out of 8.2 million votes.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate is objectively an awful pundit. Period. 

He's just a degenerate gambler with a blog at this point in his life.  Why don't you go pay to see some more flops, Nate, and then lecturer us how it's not just a classier version of old ladies shoving coins in the slots?

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Turnip continuing to call for an October shutdown over the SAVE Act. Which…it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote. 

Mike Johnson has not commented on that

Another GOP-pushed shutdown as an October surprise?

This is such a wild thing.  Alternatively, they want a 6 month CR because they think they will be in a better place next March.  Conversely, if I'm the Democrats, I'd be nervous about a lame duck Omnibus.  What's to keep McConnell, after a Harris victory, and the chaos of a friendly transition from looking at Schumer and saying "Nice Victory, Chuck. It'd be a damn shame if the government was in shut down during Inauguration.  But I'm sure that won't happen....

Anyway, here's a list of my.... "priorities"... for the end of the year Omnibus." 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
45 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

As long as it convinces people it’s so close they need to stand in line for four hours to vote for Harris, it’s fine with me.

The problem is it keeps Trump in the race. The other day I was wondering why polling at this point even matters, and figured that it should probably be ignored, unless it can sway the vote. So I googled a bit and from what I can tell, a close race helps turnout while a big lead depresses turnout for the trailing candidate

Media outlets want a close race both for $clicks$ and to try to sway the election. It is rage inducing but shouldn't be a surprise to anyone in here.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

He's just a degenerate gambler with a blog at this point in his life.  Why don't you go pay to see some more flops, Nate, and then lecturer us how it's not just a classier version of old ladies shoving coins in the slots?

Not wrong. His work with polymarket makes me very skeptical. Because of who funds that betting site. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

I went into the BoA lobby yesterday at noon.  First weekday of the month, I realized too late.  That is the median voter.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

The truth is that for the vast majority of people, political ideology (conservative/liberal) is as deeply ingrained in their persona as their gender. They cannot go against it, so they end up going through all manner of mental gymnastics to justify who they are.

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not wrong. His work with polymarket makes me very skeptical. Because of who funds that betting site. 

Yup. I woke up to his tweets and got sad then I had pre workout and my brain woke up to realize the above.

 

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Posted

Poll of OR-05 has Harris + 9 and the Dem House candidate +1

Biden won the redrawn district by 7 and the current incumbent Rep won it by 2 in 2022

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Posted
4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


White guys do it too. The way I speak in court is not even remotely the same as when I’m at a pasture party in East Texas with a Shiner in my hand. Why is this surprising to anyone?

Yup... you know you might speak one way in NY or even Houston but when you're talking to someone in a backwoods like Winters, your long-lost Texas accent pops in to say howdy!

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Posted
15 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


It’s as simple as a large portion of our electorate thinks electing any Democrat is tantamount to socialism or even communism - which most don’t even know what that means, just that it must be avoided at all costs - and they can live with Trump’s “personality quirks” because the alternative is simply worst thing that could ever be.

However, there are reds who are rethinking this. Like I said up thread, we’ll find out how many soon.

Even though they’ve lived with a dem potus quite often and the communism thing never happens and jeez how horrible was it under Clinton, obama, and Biden?  

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electorate.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

Throw out everything else horrible about him, and just focus on this one thing: He famously will do anything for a buck. And he owes, shit I forget, half a billion to the state of New York? Just that one. single. thing. is 100% disqualifying. 

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Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The numbers for black and hispanic voters going to Trump is starting to get concerning.  But the topline numbers suggest similar stuff as 2020.  Does that mean there is a white shift that offsets it?

Are you just looking at cross tabs? Bc the large sample polls of those voters do not show giant shifts. Small sample size cross tabs can be really wonky 

Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Its something that has shown up over dozens of polls throughout the year as far as I can tell.

Quote

In the past month of high-quality polls, Ms. Harris has a 78-14 lead among Black voters and a 52-41 lead among Hispanic voters. Our New York Times/Siena College battleground state surveys showed similar results, with Ms. Harris ahead 80-15 among Black voters and 52-42 among Hispanic ones. In each case, Ms. Harris is about halfway between Mr. Biden’s weakened standing before he dropped out of the race and his stronger estimated finish in the 2020 election.

While this is certainly closer to typical, “normal” is not quite the right term for the current numbers. Mr. Trump’s tallies today — 14 percent support among Black voters and 41 percent among Hispanic voters — would still represent the highest level of backing a Republican presidential candidate has received in pre-election polls since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

some discussion in nyt today.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/upshot/kamala-harris-trump-polls.html

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