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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

canadian what GIF by CBC

Don't forget CFB.

Edit: I thought it was a joke about the NFL draft, lol. DERP.

CDN media

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
44 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Peter Thiel wants Trump to win?  No way!

If betting markets are way off can't we all make a lot of money? I see it around 50/50 on most websites unless I'm missing something.

I'm most worried about oil prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict or Americans believing tax dollars will flow into another war.

And why is Dick Cheney in some Kamala ads? Who is this appealing to? Pretty sure everyone thinks he's an evil POS.

Posted
1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I bet that hurt for him to say.

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Trunk has never win the popular vote, so why would an EC win necessarily correlate to a Popular win? 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

Nah. Because if he isn't dead or in jail, they know he'll be a problem barker.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

Fucking mind bottling. He’s never heard of a cat 5 hurricane… the best people 

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Never mind.  Never Read the Replies, but I did read the replies and they convinced me Nate’s theory doesn’t stand to too much scrutiny.  One, predictit has similar numbers but whales don’t exist because of $850 price cap and two the markets basically mirror the same perceived jump in PA for Trump, which isn’t really a statement on overall popular vote.  

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the same perceived jump in PA for Trump

Based on….what? Did some crappy GOP firm put out a poll or are they still rolling with “PA polls are underestimating Trump bc they don’t poll the Amish”

I saw the new polling conspiracy is they poll on Sundays which means all the good republicans who go to church don’t get counted 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

 

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Camille, 1969

Andrew, 1992

Michael, 2018

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

And these 42 have reached Category 5.  Trump is an idiot. Water is wet.

Here are the names of the estimated 42 tropical cyclones that have reached Category 5 intensity since 1924:

  • "Cuba" - 1924
  • "San Felipe II Okeechobee" - 1928
  • "Bahamas" - 1932
  • "Cuba" - 1932
  • "Cuba-Brownsville" - 1933
  • "Tampico" - 1933
  • "Labor Day" - 1935 
  • "New England" - 1938
  • "Great Atlantic" - 1944 
  • Carol - 1953
  • Janet - 1955
  • Esther - 1961
  • Hattie - 1961
  • Inez - 1966
  • Beulah - 1967
  • Camille - 1969
  • Edith - 1971
  • Anita - 1977
  • David - 1979
  • Allen - 1980
  • Gilbert - 1988
  • Hugo - 1989
  • Andrew - 1992
  • Mitch - 1998
  • Isabel - 2003
  • Ivan - 2004
  • Emily - 2005 
  • Katrina - 2005
  • Rita - 2005
  • Wilma - 2005
  • Dean - 2007
  • Felix - 2007
  • Matthew - 2016
  • Irma - 2017
  • Maria - 2017
  • Michael - 2018
  • Dorian - 2019
  • Lorenzo - 2019
  • Ian - 2022
  • Lee - 2023
  • Beryl - 2024
  • Milton - 2024
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Posted
32 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket. 
 

 

 

 

Makes sense to me that relatively small betting pools could be manipulated by large bettors. Say they're sitting on a bunch of Trump bets already. Push some more money into Trump hoping to influence the market. The crowd follows. Dump all of your bets. Maybe you break even on the newer bets but your rake with the others.

Posted
27 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Let’s be fair here- he said he’s never heard of a cat 5 coming onto land.   I can’t just think of one off hand that has, but then again I’m not making declarative statements about it because it’s probably happened with Hugo or Andrew or some other one. 

Isn't the current consensus is that it won't be a cat 5 when hitting Florida on Wednesday? 

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Posted
If betting markets are way off can't we all make a lot of money? I see it around 50/50 on most websites unless I'm missing something.
I'm most worried about oil prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict or Americans believing tax dollars will flow into another war.
And why is Dick Cheney in some Kamala ads? Who is this appealing to? Pretty sure everyone thinks he's an evil POS.
Yeah. When being markets are off, you can win a lot of money.
Posted
Don’t worry. He’s going to Aurora, Colorado the day before that. I’m sure that’s gonna go well ( [mention=1769]Chewbacca[/mention])
Yeah, not sure why the fuck he is coming here. Probably looking for Venezuelan gang members.
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Posted
Just now, Chewbacca said:
19 minutes ago, Js1 said:
Don’t worry. He’s going to Aurora, Colorado the day before that. I’m sure that’s gonna go well ( [mention=1769]Chewbacca[/mention])

Yeah, not sure why the fuck he is coming here. Probably looking for Venezuelan gang members.

It’s at the Gaylord. He’s barely leaving the airport lol

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Posted

The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

Can I bet on that?

Posted
7 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

The dumb motherfucker was in office when a cat 5 hit florida in 2018

He was busy, in many meetings and making many phone calls.

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Posted

Here’s Trump saying the same stupid shit in 2017 in Puerto Rico after Cat 5 Maria hit the island.

”A category 5, which few people have even heard of…” at about the 1:15 mark. 

Just fucking stupid. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Fact checking is now not fair to them. They should be able to make things up out of whole cloth because their entire strategy is just to lie about everything. This is where the GOP is today. 

That's just staggering.  

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

She needs to do Rogan or Theo Von.  Both are good interviewers, she would do well in both forums. 

Both are know-nothing morons.  I watched  as much as I could tolerate of "Theo" with Cuban.  He's a fucking idiot. 

13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

13 hours ago, bluto said:

The fact either of them are considered good interviewers is insanity 

Yep. 

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trump is holding a rally in Coachella, California this weekend

Biden won the area around Coachella 78-20 

There were 2 precincts that voted for Trump 100% - one 2 votes to 0 and one 1 vote to 0 lol

And no, this rally isn't at the Coachella festival grounds - it's at a polo club in Coachella, which was overwhelmingly Biden.  Less than 30 days until the election and Trump is in.....California.

That's one less weekend he's in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.  

High expected to be over 100 degrees.   

3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

No one goes in a temple with their head uncovered.  

Doesn't the ferret pelt on Trump's head count as "cover"?

2 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

"What are you looking at?"

"Nothing"

"You calling me a nothing?" 

"No"

"You calling me a liar?"

Edited by Gil Bang
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Posted (edited)

I thought Harris and Walz did well and looked great on "60 Minutes" and holy cow Maricopa Co, AZ is crazy town USA.

Harris repeated a few lines from the debate, answered some questions and dodged others, but otherwise looked presidential.

"60 Minutes" said that Trump's camp wanted them to agree to not fact check his interview before Trump pulled out, and they replied that they fact check ALL their interviews.  What did they expect, it's friggin' "60 Minutes" -- this is what they do.

Edited by Texas Jeff
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Posted
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

He's made the calculation that he'd prefer to run against Harris in 2028 than try to run as a Republican after a second Trump term.

He's not wrong.  And he won't be the last one to make that calculation.  I guarantee you we'll see other high Republican officeholders who might have presidential aspirations subtly undermine Trump over the next 29 days.

The story on how he wasn't taking calls from Biden/Harris was starting to pick up steam.  If this next Hurricane is as bad as it looks, I think he realized it would damage his career more than Harris's.  

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The best betting markets are hammering the obvious wrong bets like those betting on Trump to win the popular vote or Kari Lake winning AZ. you don't get rich but it's easy money.

The only two risks that I see. 1) Something drastic occurs (i.e. harris announces she's dropping out) and you're late to get out of the bet.  2) A site like Polymarket goes offline and doesn't pay out.

Three things about the betting markets:

1. As with any binary prediction on the election, it can't be wrong.  If Trump has a 1% chance of winning, and he does, then that 1% paid off.  

2. It's basically the median opinion of the public.  If I trusted the public's median opinion, then I wouldn't have to worry about this election.  Roughly half the voting public thinks Donald Trump was a competent President.  It boggles the fucking mind how stupid we are.  The gambling sites are pulling from the same absurd think tank.  What kind of odds can I get that in the next year, it will be announced that we have diplomatic relations with several alien species?  

3. Even the people that bet on those markets believe they are wrongs on the odds.  There would be no reason to bet otherwise.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Fact checking is now not fair to them. They should be able to make things up out of whole cloth because their entire strategy is just to lie about everything. This is where the GOP is today. 

Denial is a hell of a drug.  I've seen incredibly intelligent people grasp demonic possession as an alternative to a reality they didn't want to face.  And boy is reality something the GOP doesn't want to face.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Polymarket has Trump at 53% to win? I don't get it.

What new voters has he gained? Maybe young Latinos. The machismo bit seems to appeal to a lot of them. And they feel more native than ever. Many don't speak Spanish today. I'm surprised how the 'close the border' appeals to many Latinos. And Catholic I guess.

Peter Thiel is a huge investor in Polymarket. Polymarket is also an offshore, unregulated company. It could be Thiel putting his finger on the scale for his favored candidate. Especially with Elon pimping it. It could also just be crypto bros  (Ethereum) being crypto bros.



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