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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
7 hours ago, horncyclist said:


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-trump-fitness-character.html

Kelly going on the record to agree Trump is a fascist, confirm and elaborate on other deplorable things Trump has said, including repeated Hitler admiration. Trump’s threat to use the military against Americans prompted the longest serving Trump chief of staff to come out on the record. 
 

Why is this not an all caps headline by the New York Times?

Why doesn’t Kelly going on Sixty Minutes or something? If he cares enough to speak up, make sure people hear you.

 

 

 

Great idea. 60 Minutes should do one its special 90 minute editions during which all of these former Trump supporters share anecdotal evidence about how much is at stake in this election. The point should be to scare America back to normalcy.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, immamac said:

What of its him talking about how fucking stupid they are including musk and names specific behaviors and events in the recent past which he was scamming the true believers. 

Turning on your base because you actually hate them is definitely possible for him. 

agreed on that scenario. that's probably what it would take. 

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Eh. Part of me agrees with you. They won't be deterred. But they can be temporarily suppressed. The same way that Comey's last minute bullshit suppressed Hillary voters into now showing up, or switching to Trump becuase fuck it, something tremendous at the right time can absolutely make a difference. Jan 6 suppressed Trump voters...termporarily. If the Access Hollywood tape had come out a couple weeks before the election, it would have suppressed Trump voters. It's more about timing than it is about longevity. And once Dotard loses, the whole game changes. 

I'm wondering if it's something folks have been sitting on for a long ass time to drop now. 

and agreed that this would be the result - a temporary suppression that overlaps election day.

Posted
Just now, henrygandorf said:

 

Someone said they don’t weigh by partisanship, so that’s why they get wild swings. Seems useless 

Posted (edited)

As @Js1 and others have so astutely observed, I wonder if we're getting the public polling numbers starting to be massaged from dead-heat toward the actual numbers.  All in order to backsell how well their polls have performed after the election (Our polls caught Harris's late rally.... etc). 

Follow the money.  There's big money at stake for polling firms.

Edited by TeeDubya
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Posted
11 minutes ago, immamac said:

What of its him talking about how fucking stupid they are including musk and names specific behaviors and events in the recent past which he was scamming the true believers. 

Turning on your base because you actually hate them is definitely possible for him. 

He has bagged on his base, called them dumb and shit talked Detroit at a Rally IN Detroit.

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Posted
Just now, Born to Run said:

He has bagged on his base, called them dumb and shit talked Detroit at a Rally IN Detroit.

you sound like sydneycarton here, all of these things are BAD, they aren't somehow magically good for Trump. He's melting down in real time mentally, physically and behaviorally with his base. Everyone keeps talking about him having more voters, he will have less than in 2020, the media is obsessed with this alternate reality that he's a viable candidate. 

Posted (edited)

I don't buy the poll averages that have the PA, MI and WI senate races up a 4 points for the Dem candidate but then Harris is effectively tied with Trump in each. Yes, Jill Stein will infuriatingly take some votes from Harris but I can't believe there will be that much crossover vote.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted

 

I hope the bombshell is a video of him shitting his pants, walking around with shit spilling over the back of his pants, dripping out his pants legs, while he makes jokes about "dirty messicans" and "filthy immigrants" and "shithole countries". 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

you sound like sydneycarton here, all of these things are BAD, they aren't somehow magically good for Trump. He's melting down in real time mentally, physically and behaviorally with his base. Everyone keeps talking about him having more voters, he will have less than in 2020, the media is obsessed with this alternate reality that he's a viable candidate. 

I fear you underestimate the stupidity of our voting public.  

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's all fun and games until you two chucklefucks find out they're on a mission from God. 

They’re putting the band back together.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted

re: the bombshell, there is absolutely nothing that is "campaign ending", so people (journos) need to stop being drama queens. the election is in 13 days, millions of votes are out. if campaign ending means he's going to lose, well there's a pretty good chance of that happening anyway.

anything that is audio of him or even video (grainy) of him will be dismissed as a deep fake, and honestly should be at this point. i don't even want something like that dropping, because it'll be more noise and make maga angry. we need maga docile and stupid and sitting in the corner jerking off to shitty polls.

the only story that would move the needle is something about him selling state secrets, and i'm not even sure how that gets proven, because most of us already assumed he was doing that. dude stole classified documents and hid them and refused to give them back for months and months and still has some and nobody even fucking talks about it anymore. he called kamala a "shit vp" at a rally a few days ago and nobody even covered it.

it would have to involve "selling out america" and probably would need to include russia or china. so whatever that looks like, that's what this is. and whatever it is would barely get media attention because trump.

once he loses, it'll trickle out, and people will say little, because at this point, who gives a shit.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, immamac said:

If someone is saying it will end his campaign I think it has something to do with straight up insurrection or activity that involved a foreign enemy. Racism doesn't matter and no one things it will end his campaign. 

Whatever it is people are vetting the shit out of it. 

I also think anything older than a year or 2 is not going to move the needle. This has to be a very recent and very current thing for it to be campaign ending. 

First thought was confirmation that he's been selling off the stolen docs. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Someone said they don’t weigh by partisanship, so that’s why they get wild swings. Seems useless 

pssst, they're all kinda worthless.

also it's wikler, and he's the best.

Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

I used to think Texas was ridiculous with 254 counties, until I learned Georgia has 159 counties with 19 million fewer people and Virginia with 133 with 2 million fewer people than Georgia. 

And somehow Kansas has 105 counties with only 2.9 million people! Illinois has 3 fewer counties and 10 million more residents than Kansas. 

It is ridiculous. Loving County has 43 residents, and Republicans want to create a system where their impact on statewide races  is the same as Harris County.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

we need maga . . . stupid

i've got some excellent news for you.

 

also, interesting quote from Nate Silver's NYT opinion today:

Quote

According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.

 

Posted

Granted I'm not a journalist, but I just don't think any journalist with a story so big it would "end" a campaign (nothing will end Trump's campaign) would sit on it longer than five minutes because they don't want to get scooped by another journalist. It's just not believable. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

pssst, they're all kinda worthless.

also it's wikler, and he's the best.

There's only one poll I care about, and it's the Final Selzer poll for Iowa.  Harris ain't winning Iowa, but if Ann Selzer has her competitive-ish, I'll feel pretty good.  If she shows Trump running away with it, then it's gonna be a nail biter for sure. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

also, interesting quote from Nate Silver's NYT opinion today:

According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.

60% of the time, it works every time....

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Posted
22 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Who's the best Wisconsin pundit? Feels like the least-discussed swing state

I am. What would you like to know. 

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've got some excellent news for you.

 

also, interesting quote from Nate Silver's NYT opinion today:

 

While I’m not ready to call my shot, I don’t think the winning candidate will win fewer than 5. 

Posted

The polling‘s been 50-50 for so long that Nate Silver is writing fan fiction to keep his paid subscribers hooked. 
 

yesterday he did a deep dive into what is wrong with Kamala’s website. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Queue the republicans bitching about the Hatch Act  something something can't use government resources.

Didn't Trump do the RNC Acceptance speech from the fucking South Lawn of the WHite House? 

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Posted
Just now, Bateshorn said:

Didn't Trump do the RNC Acceptance speech from the fucking South Lawn of the WHite House? 

Yeah. And Trump violated the Hatch Act almost weekly/monthly the last 18 months of his presidency. That's how I know they're going to start bitching about it. 

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Posted
55 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Harris taking Texas would turn up the election cheating shit to 13. There absolutely would be violence. 

And yet, it would be worth it.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

If someone is saying it will end his campaign I think it has something to do with straight up insurrection or activity that involved a foreign enemy. Racism doesn't matter and no one things it will end his campaign. 

Whatever it is people are vetting the shit out of it. 

I also think anything older than a year or 2 is not going to move the needle. This has to be a very recent and very current thing for it to be campaign ending. 

I’m not convinced anything will end his campaign other than death. His chief of staff came out with how he wants Hitler’s generals and that hasn’t made anyone bat an eyelash 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not convinced anything will end his campaign other than death. His chief of staff came out with how he wants Hitler’s generals and that hasn’t made anyone bat an eyelash 

We wouldn’t know he died until November 6. They’d hide it and just release body double pictures of him writing a speech again 

Posted
4 hours ago, troph said:

did you really just say that?  the quiet part out loud?

jesus johnny.

You did see the "IF YOU COULD ISOLATE THE TRUMP VOTING" part of the sentence right?  The listing the various minority/discriminated groups was not a "quiet our loud" statement, but rather to highlight individuals in groups voting for incredibly bad things that will directly affect them,  which they have every right to do, but I have a right to not feel bad for their subsequent consequences (again if those consequences could be isolated ONLY to trump voters). Now obviously you can't actually isolate the TRUMP VOTING portion of those groups, and there will be many more innocents in those groups who will suffer if his policies are actually enacted which I obviously could never support, so it was really just theoretical that probably should have just been left in my thoughts instead of posted.  I am sure the point will get lost, and the statement will be viewed as a bigoted comment, but it was simply a expression of frustration of incredibly ill informed members of our electorate. 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I hope the bombshell is a video of him shitting his pants, walking around with shit spilling over the back of his pants, dripping out his pants legs, while he makes jokes about "dirty messicans" and "filthy immigrants" and "shithole countries". 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. His supports at rallies should shit their pants in support. In fact, all dotard supporters should walk around with shit in their pants. All hail poop! 
 

Their In Group can be like the star belly sneeches but with shit in pants 

Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is she doing well there? What can she do to lock it up?

She’s doing as well as possible considering the makeup of the state and not much.

it comes down to turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, and keeping her few voters in the rural areas from being demoralized by their local majority. I suppose she could offer undecided voters a hot tub party with Mark Chmura, but unless his views have changed since his public encounter with high school girls the criminal justice system he’s a Trump supporting Republican, go figure.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted
5 hours ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

Rogan was also in the McLaren garage on Sunday.  You might be on to something.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We wouldn’t know he died until November 6. They’d hide it and just release body double pictures of him writing a speech again 

I doubt an announcement of his death would change much. Between the ones that won’t believe it and the one that will vote the R ticket anyway, that’s all of his votes. If anything it might suppress Harris voters as they take a deep breath and figure it’s a lock. 



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