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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I know it's been discussed before, but I truly hope its a landslide and that fat piece of shit dies within the following months. The parties will be fucking epic.

You going to carry Ygifs torch and go on a wild bender?

Posted
4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

And he’s had Trump winning this thing the whole way. But don’t let the Chili’s delusion mob know that.

Well fucking good for him.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

MAGA gonna claim she's obviously trailing bigly and she's desperate for votes or something

The polls have a problem picking up some subtleties. For instance, it might be harder to pick up the large number of new voters, of which African-American and women voters make up a large percentage, and thus miss that those folks are signing up due to their enthusiasm for Project 2025 and JD Vance. 

I also know that Ann Salzer did not ask likely voters how they felt about pet squirrels.  It is that type of clearly partisan modeling - I call it data manipulation - that prevents the upcoming Trump red wave from being accurately reported. 

 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Junior's in fine shape today

 

 Junior just mad because he was too much of a nobody to get invited to Diddy’s freak offs and his Dad’s stories about the 13 year olds on the island make him jealous.

Edited by Dnaguy
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Posted
1 hour ago, SizzleChest said:

At the end of the Bulwark interview with her (posted yesterday on this thread), she has a really good descripton for how that fact pattern evolved.  Her poll was not wrong as much it was "early".

Oh cool, yesterday.  I'll look that up. 

*Only has to go back 150 pages*

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I know it's been discussed before, but I truly hope its a landslide and that fat piece of shit dies within the following months. The parties will be fucking epic.

Hope he chokes on a hamburder, while the fry cooks are looking for their prophylactic.  I mean they had just used it in the aisle between the griddle and condiment station, where could it have possibly rolled off to?   

Edited by Mdhorn
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Posted
21 hours ago, threesheets said:

Well I'm about to lose my shit. Just checked the Collin County spreadsheet for last Sunday and none of the three people in my household that voted that day are on it.

Not sure if you resolved this yet, but just checked mine for Collin County also.  I’m 99% sure I voted on the 24th and didn’t see my name, but when I checked the 25th I was there.  So maybe a day lag or maybe I can’t remember what I did two weeks ago. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Atlas modeled a 77% (!!) white electorate in their national poll (Trump +1), which hasn’t been the case in 20 years lol 

2020 was 67% 

they obviously didn't like the result when they used 67% so they had to go all the way to 77% to get trump to +1.

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

I don't even like Jason Isbell but fuck it, I like Jason Isbell.

I like that he's comfortable enough with his not-insubstantial wealth (soon cut in half) to tell the haters to fuck off.

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Posted
1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

they obviously didn't like the result when they used 67% so they had to go all the way to 77% to get trump to +1.

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

 

They don't like the results when they do that, either.

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Posted

Ah. A “Democratic consultant friend” who is totally cool with passing devastating on-the-ground canvassing news to the opposition for “top secret” publication. 
 

image.jpeg.c7d2a086054e0c5e27de62688919aec3.jpeg

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Posted
3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

It's essentially the Selzer model in Iowa.  Perfect?  No.  Needs a little massaging to correct for small samples?  Yes.  Reasonably accurate?  Yes.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Stilicho said:

Ah. A “Democratic consultant friend” who is totally cool with passing devastating on-the-ground canvassing news to the opposition for “top secret” publication. 
 

image.jpeg.c7d2a086054e0c5e27de62688919aec3.jpeg

The night before an election. "Hey I have some news that might devastate my party, but go ahead and spread it around the internet."

And Liberals have all given up on the Democrats and love Trump now...except liberal white women for some reason. 

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