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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

Joe Biden exiting the race is what happened in PA.  Hopefully, he goes there 5 or 6 more times in the next 7-8 weeks.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

Wisconsin feels like an outlier. Honestly if I had to rank them by blueness, it’s Michigan, PA and then Wisconsin 

Posted

 

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

After 2016, WI has elected a Dem governor (a flip from Scott Walker) and two Dem Senators and flipped the state Supreme Court to Dem control.  There was also a referendum pushed by the right, which failed a few weeks ago.

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Posted

I imagine Walz probably helps with Wisconsin. Fair amount of population likely gets twin city media and similar northern Midwest populism.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

 

Nothing. Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll. Trump out-performed the RCP average by 6 in 2020 and 7 in 2016. Some very high-quality pollsters were WAY off in those two cycles - but only in determining Trump support. They weren't that far off in the numbers for Hillary (RCP average 46.8; actual 46.5) or Biden (RCP average 51; actual 49.6).

So the key is to look at Kamala's average support. She needs to be consistently at or above 50% in the polls. 

18 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

After 2016, WI has elected a Dem governor (a flip from Scott Walker) and two Dem Senators and flipped the state Supreme Court to Dem control.  There was also a referendum pushed by the right, which failed a few weeks ago.

I think Wisconsin has a large "ride or die with Trump" group who only show up to vote for Trump. Once he's out of the picture they'll disappear and never vote again. 

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

Correct on MI.  PA has voted for a statewide Dem most recently.  Whitmer & Co single handedly destroyed the Republican party in MI.  Both states, though, have voted Dem for every statewide since 2020 so I find it hard to believe they all vote Trump now.  You'd have to have people who voted Whitmer and Shapiro just two years now vote Trump.  That's not happening.

Posted
43 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

Also, one more thing on MI.  I go there from time to time and from what I understand, the Muslim vote in Dearborn is a very loud but very small minority.  Unions, the black vote, and suburban whites are a much bigger factor.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Or that losing family to the maga cult makes him very relatable to many people in this country. I'm 100% certain that  either the brother disowned him for being a librul, or refused to stop making it an issue every time they spoke causing the strain in the relationship (this is where I am currently with my mother). That old lady definitely harassed Black folk for sitting at a lunch counter back in her day, maybe even just last week.

This lunch counter make their onion rings in house, cause those can be hard to come by at times. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

CNN: "Many are saying that vomiting in a car as a child is disqualifying for Gov. Walz. But is it really? We'll discuss, next." 

"Is Kamala Harris's judgement up to the task?"

Posted

Typically you’re supposed to raise more each month until the election. Trump is going backwards. He also raised like $210m in August 2020, soooo this blows for him

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Posted (edited)

Unidos poll of Latinos - Harris 59, Trump 31. On par with 2020 

Mexicans go for Harris 59-30 and she’s tied at 47 with Trump with Cubans. Puerto Ricans go 57-31 Harris 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unidos poll of Latinos - Harris 59, Trump 31. On par with 2020 

Mexicans go for Harris 59-30 and she’s tied at 47 with Trump with Cubans. Puerto Ricans go 57-31 Harris 

tied at 47 with cubans? I'll take it but I don't buy it. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

tied at 47 with cubans? I'll take it but I don't buy it. 

It was a poll of 3000 Latinos. I buy this poll more than the tiny subsamples of 100 or so 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unidos poll of Latinos - Harris 59, Trump 31. On par with 2020 

God....I hate us....so, so, so, so much.

31% of us are full on voting for the leopards to eat our faces.  We are SO.  FUCKING.  STUPID.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

God....I hate us....so, so, so, so much.

31% of us are full on voting for the leopards to eat our faces.  We are SO.  FUCKING.  STUPID.

Aren't you part Cajun as well? Bet you'd really hate to those crosstabs. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Chopper said:

Think about it in terms of shit states like W Va. Mining or manufacturing used to be the main industries, and men were the dominant employees. This extends to parts of PA and OH now, as well. Now the men are unemployed or underemployed, and many of them are reliant upon women who work. The women work in healthcare or school jobs. "Not real" jobs per their men. They're resentful and because of that prefer to vote for the supposed mas macho candidate. I'm stealing part of an argument Paul Krugman made earlier this week. edit - then combine that with the percentage of young men who've "invested" in crypto. There's apparently a lot more of those than we tend to think, and they're of course voting for the grifter candidate. 

I can’t recall the exact details but I saw a short form documentary about these underemployed men in WV. When asked if they were open to school or healthcare jobs, their answer was hell no. Maybe the filmmaker edited the video to support his narrative but it was believable.

whats completely backwards is how so many of these voters now support the billionaire class and many are anti-union at the macro level. Perhaps they hope some crumbs will fall to them.

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

If you start the email with "team" you're automatically a fucking knob and I have lost what little respect I had for you.

"Fam" or "Family" is a typical get ready for a butt-fucking of some sort starter as well. 

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