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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

 

The consolidation is important. 

 

What I still want to see is something like the below, except with additional columns showing how 2016 and 2020 actually turned out relative to the polling.  All the other stuff is just vibes.

 

 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also don't use RCP.  Republicans Cherry Picking. 

no doubt but, assuming apples to apples, their averages above are relevant information for comparative purposes.

Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

Except....when the time comes on Nov 5th....every single one of those people will still pull the lever for Trump.  Because they are all fucking liars who are not only okay with lying, they love it deeply, and they'll lie to you and even to themselves.

nah, I think they will just sit at home. 

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Posted (edited)

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  Getting shot at in July?  He had nothing to do with either of those things.  I have no doubt some more crazy shit will happen, but it's only going to hurt Trump.

season 5 GIF

Edited by kevwun
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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

just came here to post it. The individual polls have her a positive for several weeks now and it just took some time for 538 to knock down the weight of the older polls. great news.

as comparison, Trump is at a -9.6% has been trending worse lately on 538.

EDIT: 538 has also adjusted their overall win probability to 61-39. It was 55-45 a week ago. While not a giant move, it does show that we're going in the right direction, no matter who is truly ahead.

NYT headline:

"Why this news is Catastrophic for Harris."
Written by Nate Silver. 

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Posted

I know this video was posted before, but the Kamala campaign HAS to get Walz in front of the young male demographic more often. Like others have mentioned, Rogan or Theo Von podcast would be fine. I would love an appearance on ESPN or at a football game, but that's probably unlikely as sports media probably wants to avoid getting into the political conversation. 

Young men are incredibly impressionable, and they are only being fed Trump shit all the time. These kids are are not gonna tune in for the VP debate. Give him an hour deep dive conversation with someone. Walz can handle it, there is zero downside.

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  

The first assassination attempt was probably the last good thing.  It was after Biden's awful debate performance, and it seemed like the general consensus was that the event would only charge up the MAGA base and polling in Trump's favor.  In fact, my thought after reading about the assassination attempt was, "well shit, it's over now."

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Posted
Just now, South Austin said:

In fact, my thought after reading about the assassination attempt was, "well shit, it's over now."

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

I mean, if Biden hadn't dropped out after the assassination attempt, that forecast would have been perfectly reasonable.

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Posted

Kamala Harris is now favored 61-39 by 538 and she is favored in all 7 swing states + NE-02

AZ: 52%
NV: 58%
WI: 65%
MI: 62%
PA: 56%
NC: 51%
GA: 53%
NE-02: 79%

Trump still holds advantages in FL (66%), TX (73%) and ME-02 (77%)

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Posted (edited)

And they've done nothing but commit fuck up after fuck up since Kamala became the nominee.  And no one is going to stop the mistakes because everyone around Trump is either a bootlicker, a grifter, a nut or some combination of the 3.  The ship isn't going to magically stop sinking.

Edited by kevwun
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Posted
10 minutes ago, kevwun said:

When was the last time something good happened for the Trump Campaign?  Biden's debate performance?  Getting shot at in July?  He had nothing to do with either of those things.  I have no doubt some more crazy shit will happen, but it's only going to hurt Trump.

season 5 GIF

I'd say the most recent assassination attempt is about as good as it gets for him. 

Posted
17 minutes ago, immamac said:

I seriously haven't interacted with a true trump voter that wasn't completely and obviously low IQ or mentally retarded since the debate. Everyone I know who was "wallet republican" have been open about how unacceptable the eating dogs and cats thing was and how fucking crazy he is and they can't vote for him.

Or old... really old and susceptible to monumental BS because they can be easily scared. 

Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

LOL 75% of this board was posting "well Trump just won" like it was gospel.

Don't mean to gloat but looking back on the 538 favorability average of those days Trump went from -12 unfavorable to -8, like he had the best week a candidate could ever have in his life, survived a bullet, convention, opponent dropping out. and the best he could eek out as 4 points. Of course it evaporated quickly to -10.

This thing is not over not by a longshot, anybody that thinks this is a person less likely to vote and give the advantage back to Trump, that is why I am not militant against CNN keeping Harris and democrats on their toes.

Posted
29 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I don't like the enthusiasm trend. Probably the real reason behind the blood libel

Two points aren’t a trend. Look at 3 points and it’s fine. If the next point is reflective of your concern, then it’s valid. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I'm more and more convinced this is a must for the campaign.  Rogan/Theo/etc. are not combative interviewers, it will not be a trap.  Like many have said previously, the goal isn't necessarily to win their vote (although I do think there's a possibility of that happening in non-negligible numbers) it's to convince them that Kamala winning isn't some country-ending scenario. 

When you continue to allow your enemy to define you to a specific demographic with no pushback, then you cannot be surprised when they believe it.

I’ve seen some Vonn clips and only really read about Rogan. I can see Vonn working out but Rogan strikes me as an incessant contrarian whose idiocy is hard to rebut since facts are irrelevant. I can see it devolving into an anti-vax shitfest that just confirms most of his listeners’ bias against anything fact based or intellectual and just default to trumpism. Could be wrong but doesn’t seem worth the risk.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I’ve seen some Vonn clips and only really read about Rogan. I can see Vonn working out but Rogan strikes me as an incessant contrarian whose idiocy is hard to rebut since facts are irrelevant. I can see it devolving into an anti-vax shitfest that just confirms most of his listeners’ bias against anything fact based or intellectual and just default to trumpism. Could be wrong but doesn’t seem worth the risk.

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

90% of his editorial voice is the people he books and the frequency with which he books (and promotes) them

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The two assassination attempt stories are the first major time I can think of where Trump has fallen victim to his own flood the zone strategy. There is so much crazy Trump shit that people don't care about anything he says or does 2 days later. That has always worked to his advantage when it comes to the verifiably crazy, outrageous, and patently false things he says. But this time an absolutely huge event happened that he needs people to remember and 2 days later nobody cares. 

And there is undoubtedly a significant part of the voting populous that just wants the constant drama and bullshit and hateful language to STOP!   People just want to live in the world without seeing more Trump bullshit every. single. day.  Back in 2016 when people were enjoying a Jesse Ventura type middle-finger-at-the-man candidate versus the hated Hillary, his schtick was compelling to some.  

Now it is just old and tired and annoying.  if there is not a significant amount of people who think this, then it was a good run.

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Posted
1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

 

The consolidation is important. 

 

What I still want to see is something like the below, except with additional columns showing how 2016 and 2020 actually turned out relative to the polling.  All the other stuff is just vibes.

 

 

 

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

Young white males.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

As much as pop culture would lead you to believe otherwise….the vast vast majority of young people just follow their parents lead. 

Edited by Surly Bevo
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Posted

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

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Posted

I think there's some backsliding back toward Trump with young folks because some young folks internalized what we see as crazy as normal.  If you're 20 years old today, Trump was running for president before you first kissed a girl.  Crazy seems normal because its the bulk of your life.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I mean, if Biden hadn't dropped out after the assassination attempt, that forecast would have been perfectly reasonable.

Hell, even if I knew at the time that Biden was going to drop out, I still would have thought Trump runs away with it. There was so much risk with infighting, lack of party unity, and just general Democratic incompetence that it truly feels like a miracle that Biden's withdrawal didn't lead to even more support for Trump. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

Posted
Just now, TexArcher said:

and the most recent poll has PA dead even

Actually the most recent one was last night and it was Harris +3. CNN probably pumping their own polls 

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Posted
Just now, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

In the analogy, the scoreboard is blurry as fuck.  Some people think the Dems are up 10, some think they’re up 3, others think it’s tied.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

And there is undoubtedly a significant part of the voting populous that just wants the constant drama and bullshit and hateful language to STOP!   People just want to live in the world without seeing more Trump bullshit every. single. day.  Back in 2016 when people were enjoying a Jesse Ventura type middle-finger-at-the-man candidate versus the hated Hillary, his schtick was compelling to some.  

Now it is just old and tired and annoying.  if there is not a significant amount of people who think this, then it was a good run.

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. 

11 minutes ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

As other posters have said, look at the Tim Walz video talking to the young dudes. More than just young white males, young people in general DGAF. Minority groups give a fuck because they can feel an existential threat to their existence when they're young. But young white men, and to a degree women, who've never felt threatened or real diveristy in their lives don't feel an urgency to give a fuck about politics. Unless of course they've got some kind of grievance...like not being able to say the N bomb, or some DEI bullshit that help them back from their rightful place. Then they'll vote.

Sincerely,

45 year old white guy who remembers being 20-25.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

Case-in-point: if you give every state the way it's currently leaning, it all comes down to PA, and the most recent poll has PA dead even, whereas 1 month ago it had PA as +4 to Harris.  Source: the hairy NY/NJ election guy on CNN.

Horse race sells. They need it to be close.

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