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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, King George said:

Because I posted a pic of a art of Mystic that didn’t flood, amongst everything else I posted yesterday that was spot on?  I guess not man.  Jesus. 

 Except you posted it with certainly, implied the real issue here was a dam failure and “look how close the dam is to the cabins,” again with certainty, then tried to crab walk and hem and haw about it after your pants got pulled down. Like you’re doing now. Instead of admitting you fucking made it the fuck up. 
 

and by the way, if there was a dam failure, it makes the illustration of human negligence even more bare. Because they would have had plenty of time before a dam failure to warn every fucking camp on the river directly. So you can add another place where negligence could have taken place. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

People here are supposed to believe anything you post now? 

 

2 minutes ago, King George said:

Because I posted a pic of an art of Mystic that didn’t flood, amongst everything else I posted yesterday that was spot on?  

No. Because it’s the 4th of July weekend, almost 250 years to the day after we kicked your limey ass.

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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

 Except you posted it with certainly, implied the real issue here was a dam failure and “look how close the dam is to the cabins,” again with certainty, then tried to crab walk and hem and haw about it after your pants got pulled down. Like you’re doing now. Instead of admitting you fucking made it the fuck up. 

Also he requested that his account get deleted like a week ago claiming he was done with this place and yet he's back again. 

I'll probably have to put this handle on ignore as well once he begins personally attacking me again. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:
1 hour ago, royiv said:
Get ready for mosquitos the size of hummingbirds.

I'm from Minnesota. I've seen mosquitoes pick up a Buick.

The bigger the mosquito, the easier to kill it.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

Props to that news lady for calling out those horses asses

Yeah you could see she was really pissed and had something to say as soon as they cut away from the presser. Good for her. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

The bigger the mosquito, the easier to kill it.

Before or after it carries your dog or toddler away?

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Posted
7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Also he requested that his account get deleted like a week ago claiming he was done with this place and yet he's back again. 

I'll probably have to put this handle on ignore as well once he begins personally attacking me again. 

I don't get it. This is how many names? You're not the first person to point out that it's Rex again but I'm going to consider this confirmation of it. I usually wait until he shows up in the Oil Baron's thread before I'm completely convinced but, two or three unrelated posters saying the same thing and him whining about it is enough this time.

Posted
9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 Except you posted it with certainly, implied the real issue here was a dam failure and “look how close the dam is to the cabins,” again with certainty, then tried to crab walk and hem and haw about it after your pants got pulled down. Like you’re doing now. Instead of admitting you fucking made it the fuck up. 
 

and by the way, if there was a dam failure, it makes the illustration of human negligence even more bare. Because they would have had plenty of time before a dam failure to warn every fucking camp on the river directly. So you can add another place where negligence could have taken place. 

No, I asked honestly what was wrong with the pic. I received and shared it, admittedly without knowing the Mystic layout.  My daughters’ camp is 5 miles away. I apologized for the pic which was just wrong with my context.

It appears you think me posting that is indicative of someone taking up for Mystic’s inevitable destruction / they aren’t at fault. I’ve not made any statement like that, and I’m going to refrain from doing so here. My gut tells me your 2nd paragraph is correct, though I do not know. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

 

No. Because it’s the 4th of July weekend, almost 250 years to the day after we kicked your limey ass.

Cornwallis did not surrender until 1781 my good sir

 

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

You WILL NEVER guess who else is pissed.

  Hide contents

 

 

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They’ll forget all about this

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Posted

So we need just a little bit of help. I’m trying to accompany my daughter and grandkids back from the San Angelo area to Round Rock tomorrow. I’m trying to figure out the safest path back, but the problem is that both San Saba and Llano are showing extensive flooding. So I don’t know if it’s clear on 190 east thru San Saba. It seems like 29 thru Llano is toast. Thoughts?

Posted
51 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I love how you show up to chastise emotional posters here for not giving you information, but you don’t extend that expectation to your elected officials who spend the 30 minutes of a press conference giving no information. 
 

I’ve lived through Harvey, which had a new press conference every few hours. I guess my experience with emergency press conferences differs from yours, since apparently your’s all start with a 30 minute dick sucking session and providing zero information about things like missing or dead citizens. 

This. 

Posted

So a couple things I've learned that I didn't know before are that 1) the river valleys in this particular part of Central Texas are among the most flood-prone in the country, and 2) they're full of quite a few kids' summer camps, many (most?) of which have been there for many decades, some up to 100 years.

Those two facts in combination make it seem like the camps should be pretty well versed in flood risks. I'd expect quite a few near miss stories to be among the local lore. "Back in '88, the water came all the way up to the steps of the dining hall"...that type of thing.

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Posted

NPR put together a timeline of what various public officials did or said they did. https://www.npr.org/2025/07/05/nx-s1-5457759/texas-floods-timeline

spoilered for length

 

Spoiler

Thursday, July 3rd:

At 9:47 a.m. Texas Division of Emergency Management posted on X weather guidance in both English and Spanish, informing followers about what to do in a flood, adding: "As we head into the holiday weekend and the flood threat in West & Central TX continues, stay weather aware!"

At some point in the morning, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick later said at a press conference, the TDEM Region 6 Assistance Chief had "personally contacted the judges and mayors in that area and notified them all of potential flooding." He said it was unclear exactly where in the region the storm would hit.

The message was sent," Patrick said, "It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate, if they feel a need. That information was passed along."

At 3:35 p.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio announced a flood watch on X, saying "pockets of heavy rain are expected and may result in flooding." A flood watch is used when the weather conditions make a flood possible but it does not mean a flood will occur.

Friday, July 4th:

At 12:42 a.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X upgrading its flood watch to a flood warning for part of the impacted area. In a post from 2:14 a.m., that area was expanded. A flood warning occurs when flooding is imminent or already happening.

 
 
 

At 1:26 a.m., the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center said "flash flooding likely overnight with significant impacts possible." This message was posted on X a minute later.

Around 3:30 a.m. the Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was out for an early morning jog along the Guadalupe River and saw "not a drop of rain," according to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who recounted his conversation with the city manager. Rice added that he left around 4 a.m. when "there was very light rain…We did not see any signs of the river rising at that time."

At 4:06 a.m. the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X: "A very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing." It ended: "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"

Then, at 5:15 a.m. the National Weather Service San Angelo posted on X that there was a flash flood emergency. The Austin/San Antonio office posted on its X account about the emergency at 5:23 a.m. This type of alert is "exceedingly rare" and used when there is a "severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage," according to the National Weather Service.

Between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m., the Guadalupe River surged, with water levels rapidly rising as much as 30 feet, according to Rep. Roy. Local TV footage showed the empty foundations of houses, where everything else had been swept away.

Kerrville City Manager Rice said he started getting calls around 5 a.m. about the flooding. He said upstream of the city two branches converge into the Guadalupe River and that both forks had received more rain than expected. "It was about seven feet or so on the south fork, and within a matter of minutes, it was up to 29 feet," Rice recounted later on Friday.

After the 1987 flood, alarms were installed along the river. However, Rice said that he believes those are south of Kerrville. "There [are] not alarms everywhere on the river," he said.

 
 
 

He added that it is a very hard decision when to issue evacuation orders. "There's a balance between do you evacuate and put chaos on the road and potentially risk people getting stuck on a road? This is hill country…There's a lot of low water crossings," he said. "A lot of our operations plans — especially with these camps, that is — the plan is sometimes shelter in place to get them to those known high grounds and then wait for rescue."

At 6:16 a.m., the City of Kerrville's Police Department posted on its Facebook page its first warning about the weather, noting that it's a "life threatening event" and "anyone near the Guadalupe River needs to move to higher ground now." Kerr County Sheriff posted on its Facebook page for the first time about the flooding at 6:32 a.m.

At 7:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: "Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs." At 7:33 a.m. it posted about road closures due to flooding. At 8:32 a.m. it posted: "If you live along the Guadalupe River, please move to higher ground immediately."

Kidd — the Texas Emergency Management Chief — said the boats and other equipment that was pre-positioned started responding immediately, although he did not specify at what time. "Those were put immediately into use as soon as the rain fell and the 911 calls started coming in. They were already here," he said.

Speaking on Friday, Lt. Gov. Patrick said there were 14 helicopters, 12 drones, nine rescue teams as well as "swimmers in the water rescuing adults and children out of trees." He said there were 400 to 500 people on the ground helping with the rescue effort.

 
 
 

Search and rescue operations continued through the night, according to Kerrville City Manager Rice, who said the teams were relying a lot on helicopters and using specialized equipment that detect heat sources to help find stranded people.

Saturday, July 5th:

At around 8 a.m. on Saturday, Rice said "boots on the ground operations" were able to begin. The teams started southwest of Hunt, TX — southwest of Camp Mystic — and "these folks will be traveling very difficult terrain…and we're going to start getting information," he said at a press conference on Saturday morning.

Officials said that more than 1,000 local, state and federal personnel were on the ground helping with the rescue operation.

On Saturday afternoon, Gov. Greg Abbott said one word has been used more than any during this natural disaster: Prayer. "All we know is that prayer does work," he said

 

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Posted
So we need just a little bit of help. I’m trying to accompany my daughter and grandkids back from the San Angelo area to Round Rock tomorrow. I’m trying to figure out the safest path back, but the problem is that both San Saba and Llano are showing extensive flooding. So I don’t know if it’s clear on 190 east thru San Saba. It seems like 29 thru Llano is toast. Thoughts?

Ballinger to Brownwood to Lampasas, but that leaves the Liberty Hill and Georgetown areas that have been inundated today left to traverse. I’d recommend y’all find a way to spend another day or two in SA. TIFMAS teams leaving dfw this morning had a very hard trek once they got to Jarrell.
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:


Ballinger to Brownwood to Lampasas, but that leaves the Liberty Hill and Georgetown areas that have been inundated today left to traverse. I’d recommend y’all find a way to spend another day or two in SA. TIFMAS teams leaving dfw this morning had a very hard trek once they got to Jarrell.

Only an extra hour if u go through commanche, to gatesville and down i35

Posted
9 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:


Ballinger to Brownwood to Lampasas, but that leaves the Liberty Hill and Georgetown areas that have been inundated today left to traverse. I’d recommend y’all find a way to spend another day or two in SA. TIFMAS teams leaving dfw this morning had a very hard trek once they got to Jarrell.

 

Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

Only an extra hour if u go through commanche, to gatesville and down i35

Good ideas, if I can figure out how to navigate thru 183 or i35 near town. So is 29 still screwed? I can’t find any information. 

Posted
So we need just a little bit of help. I’m trying to accompany my daughter and grandkids back from the San Angelo area to Round Rock tomorrow. I’m trying to figure out the safest path back, but the problem is that both San Saba and Llano are showing extensive flooding. So I don’t know if it’s clear on 190 east thru San Saba. It seems like 29 thru Llano is toast. Thoughts?

Give me a sec, my mom and step-dad live on 190 west just out of town. Checking.

This was in the AM coming in from Lometa but I'd hope it's clear by now.
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Good ideas, if I can figure out how to navigate thru 183 or i35 near town. So is 29 still screwed? I can’t find any information. 

I'm up at the hole, so up 183 from Austin. No issues, cept maybe the rubbermeckijg at each swole river (South and Norrh forks of SG) and all them creeks. Mesquite creek near Lampasas county... damn!

Edited by CleverNickname
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Posted

Lake Travis up to 654' which means up about 16.5' since 8 AM yesterday.  The gauges on Hamilton and Big Sandy creeks have been pegged at the exact same numbers for most of the day so I'd assume they're broken/non-functional.  Still, Cow Creek has tracked up and down with the rains, and there's more coming in from the north, so I'd expect they'll continue to flow rapidly and be unsafe for the foreseeable future.  

And Lake Buchanan finally on the move, up 3' from 8 AM yesterday with the river still running around ~73K cfs above Colorado Bend.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

I'm up at the hole, so up 183 from Austin. No issues, cept maybe the rubbermeckijg at each swole river (South and Norrh forks of SG) and all them creeks. Mesquite creek near Lampasas county... damn!

Google maps shows 183 closed at the North San Gabriel . Is that not the case?

Posted
3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Just got the dreaded text. Doesn’t appear that my friend’s girl survived. I think they found her body.

So sorry man. No one deserves any of this. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Thanks for the pics, alexis texas. Didn't realize Camp Mystic was in a minimal risk area as designated by FEMA Flood Maps. That seems incredible based on reality.

https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=2689 Highway 39%2C Hunt%2C TX 78024-3412

Not sure how you're reading that, but the adjacent "Regulatory Floodway" means certain to flood, and the rest of it means Special Hazard Flood Area (SHFA), so squarely within the 100-year floodplain and without a base flood elevation.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Not sure how you're reading that, but the adjacent "Regulatory Floodway" means certain to flood, and the rest of it means Special Hazard Flood Area (SHFA), so squarely within the 100-year floodplain and without a base flood elevation.

Yes, just the river and immediately adjacent in the SHFA, but not all or most of the camp, right?

Posted
32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So we need just a little bit of help. I’m trying to accompany my daughter and grandkids back from the San Angelo area to Round Rock tomorrow. I’m trying to figure out the safest path back, but the problem is that both San Saba and Llano are showing extensive flooding. So I don’t know if it’s clear on 190 east thru San Saba. It seems like 29 thru Llano is toast. Thoughts?

I took 190 west to 45 north up to Brownwood this morning. Went east Comanche to Goldtwaite Lometa Lampasas this afternoon no problem 

Posted
7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Just got the dreaded text. Doesn’t appear that my friend’s girl survived. I think they found her body.

I’m so sorry man. This is horrible. I’m so sorry. 

3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Whoa whoa whoa, isn’t this political @immamac?

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