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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint.....young people don't control shit, and can't do shit.  They'll get snatched up and sent to gulags, or conscripted and sent off to be cannon fodder.

It is a mistake common to all countries and cultures that young people think they're important and actually have power WELL before that's actually true.

Counterpoint - look at Putin’s advisers during these announcements. There’s clearly people in the spy, military, and economic meetings that know they are truly fucked, regardless of how much land they seize in Ukraine. 

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3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not ready to call the debate between @utee94 and @Brisketexan. Of course, the Russian people don’t always just take their shit sandwich, as evidenced by 1905, 1917, and 1992.  It’s questionable whether they’d have swallowed Stalinism absent the dark days of the Great Terror and it’s not at all a given that V.V.P. can engineer that kind of brutality.

Anecdotes are anecdotes but the plural are data. Right before COVID I did a trip around the Baltics and Finland and was struck by the behavior of Russian tourists. They were— strikingly normal.  Young couples in European capri pants and white sneakers. Young families quietly chatting over pizza. Small groups of twenty somethings behaving like any other European. 

Of course, it’s been a running joke for years that Russians abroad are awful— it’s either mafiosos, track suited ugos and trashy girl friends, or laborers and sex workers. There have always been normal Russians, they just never were able to do things like take a weekend trip to Helsinki. 
 

I will be curious to see whether the system that produced this class can weather what’s coming. 

I was in Helsinki over Christmas.  The Russians wouldn't have stood out to me....except we were staying in a quite nice hotel downtown and this happened.  There were a couple noisy guys at the bar the first night.  Immediately pegged them as the Russian track suit types.  The next day, I'm at breakfast with the fam, and these guys come down - dressed to go to the sauna.  That is, they're in thigh length terrycloth robes yucking it up.  They roll up to the hostess - a older Finnish lady - and ask for a seat.  She dressed them down in front of everyone.  "You can't come in here like THAT!" They looked like the schoolmarm had just slapped their hands with a ruler.  Chad Jr. thought it was the funniest thing he'd every seen.  They came back later properly dressed.  

tl/dr:  Rednecks errwhere. 

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Just now, SL Xpress said:

I haven’t listened to the podcast, but I will.

It’s pretty simple in some ways. You have an island nation that was never conquered. Ever. It’s like Captain Kirk with the Kobayashi Maru. That’s making light of things a bit, but there’s some truth there, too. It was inconceivable to the Japanese people that they’d ever lose.

For anyone who doesn’t know, read about the lengths that were taken simply to smuggle out the Emperor’s message of surrender after the atomic bombs were dropped. Plenty of people around him had no desire to surrender even at that point. 

It's long, but an amazing listen and well worth the time as he slowly unpacks decades of feudal fighting and how the code of code of Bushido was infused into every facet of their society.  Guy's a national treasure

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint.....young people don't control shit, and can't do shit.  They'll get snatched up and sent to gulags, or conscripted and sent off to be cannon fodder.

It is a mistake common to all countries and cultures that young people think they're important and actually have power WELL before that's actually true.

Counterpoint, see who got Yanukovych thrown out of Ukraine.

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Young people, not so much....but the middle class does to a larger extent.  These are the semi and professionals in the country.  They bring to bear a significant amount of intellectual capital, and you can't just lock all of them up without dire economic consequences.  

Counterpoint: shoot a few, imprison a few, tell the rest that's what they'll get if they don't fall in line.  It's the authoritarian playbook.  Yeah, it works till it doesn't.....but it can work for quite a while.  Long enough to make he world turbofucked.

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I meant one the die is cast, as it has been now.  Seems many as under the impression Russia is just going to wither and die on the vine.  They will feel real pain, but they are not toothless either.  

Yeah, I was focused on poking fun at The Lord of the Rings. 

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint.....young people don't control shit, and can't do shit.  They'll get snatched up and sent to gulags, or conscripted and sent off to be cannon fodder.

It is a mistake common to all countries and cultures that young people think they're important and actually have power WELL before that's actually true.

Plus young people think everything they think of is a new idea.  This is a great benefit when you're in a free society, but a great detriment in an authoritarian one. Old people know it's all been done, likely before the Ancient Egyptians, and are ready for the variation on the old trick.  Old age, treachery and all that.

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12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Great series. It really made me rethink the ethics of the atomic bombings on Japan. The fire bombings using conventional weapons were super devastating themselves and Japan was just not going to ever surrender.

Read up on Operation Downfall and the US and Japanese casualty estimates.  It would have made D-Day seem like a picnic and Okinawa a walk in the park.  

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It's long, but an amazing listen and well worth the time as he slowly unpacks decades of feudal fighting and how the code of code of Bushido was infused into every facet of their society.  Guy's a national treasure

His narrative of the mongols is must listening. 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: shoot a few, imprison a few, tell the rest that's what they'll get if they don't fall in line.  It's the authoritarian playbook.  Yeah, it works till it doesn't.....but it can work for quite a while.  Long enough to make he world turbofucked.

I mean, you're ALWAYS going to come down on this side of any debate, so in reality there's zero point in discussing anything with you, and zero point in listening to anything you have to say.  

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Serious smack talk here.  I'm not a war expert, but are both sides usually on the same channel like that?  Seems weird.


Disappointed no one was called a “piece of dick.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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7 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Just snap a finger? Wave a magic wand? You think those jobs pay well? Frankly, I agree with you to a certain extent, but it's not exactly something that can be readily implemented in a market based economy. We've hollowed ourselves out as a country since the 80s. Supply chains take an extraordinary amount of effort and capital to set up. We're not geared for that. Our investment structure at this juncture is geared towards looking for the home run by financing 1000s of startups. Or else participating in arbitrage activity on various levels with a variety of financial instruments. None of that speaks well to what your prescribing.

Good post.  Regards to supply chains, Covid was a huge wakeup call on the current vulnerabilities, so we've been thinking about this for two years already.  It will be a slow process, but a lot of that key stuff (chips, pharmaceuticals, etc.) will be coming home.  Some of it has begun already

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I love how honest he is too. He mentions about 40 times an episode that he isn't a historian but rather just putting this all together in a way that is fun and easily digestible. I wish more historians would learn from him.

And it's all off the cuff (according to him and others that know him).  He has a few notes prepared (dates, etc.) but then he just starts rolling.  I can't even wrap my head around it.  

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The running joke has a basis.  See the image below from our trip to Armenia (where the tourists are mostly other Armenians, Iranian, or Russian).  We were at an ancient monastery, cobblestone paths and rough hikes all around, saw this gal, and we all rolled our eyes....."russians."  

5dc01944f171bca266a302217cacc886.jpg

4,x,1,x,2,3,x

Edited by Loop 1604
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Just now, utee94 said:

I mean, you're ALWAYS going to come down on this side of any debate, so in reality there's zero point in discussing anything with you, and zero point in listening to anything you have to say.  

In this case, I'm not saying that we're going to swap 100 ICBMs each and the few surviving humans will live in caves.

What I'm saying is that the "visions of sugarplums" that many of us (including me) would like to have -- Ukrainian military success in holding ground, a popular uprising by the Russian people/Russian leadership to end this in short order is not that likely.  What's more likely is a long slog, and one in which the Russian people end up further repressed and further aligned behind their nationalism, and they strike back at the west in some ways that will hurt (watch your utilities, for example).  There is likely to be a lot more pain, and it won't just be the Ukrainians and Russians feeling it.

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Just now, Wade said:

Good post.  Regards to supply chains, Covid was a huge wakeup call on the current vulnerabilities, so we've been thinking about this for two years already.  It will be a slow process, but a lot of that key stuff (chips, pharmaceuticals, etc.) will be coming home.  Some of it has begun already

Yup.  Technology manufactures and semiconductor manufacturers are already working to move more of that back to the US.  It's going to be a long process but the past two years have exposed risks that were previously not known, or not fully understood, and are viewed as unacceptable.

 

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14 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Great series. It really made me rethink the ethics of the atomic bombings on Japan. The fire bombings using conventional weapons were super devastating themselves and Japan was just not going to ever surrender.

dude,  by LITERAL DEFINITION of the words you just wrote, the atomic bombings did EXACTLY that.      

 

Losing 2 fucking cities in 3 days made the Emperor finally realize it was over and any further resistance would result in city after city being leveled.   He forced the military to accept surrender.   and in doing so, he saved millions on both sides.

 

Oh yeah and serious BTW... the russians were on the verge of attacking Japan to claim more territory... so that even if we didnt fucking nuke them, the Rooskies saw a chance to take all of occupied China and Mongolia for themselves....

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4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

His narrative of the mongols is must listening. 

JFC this!  I do two things every year:  re-read the Bible and listen to that series.  

It's relevant to this discussion because he does such a job of unpacking the details.  Nothing is ever black and white.  It's a canyon of nuance and ancillary details that might seem trivial at the time, but in the context of history, critically important.  Looking back, we will see the same applies here.  

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Making random people from Ukraine suffer because Russia has a shitty leader is stupid. It's a shame that what might be otherwise decent, random citizens from Russia have to endure the economic pain brought on by their leader's actions, but we have no other avenue of retribution against Putin. We have to take away his money, national identity, and prestige. Then, hopefully, the people will take his power.

No other avenue? He’s still getting $4B per week from the West for oil and gas. The EU has stated they have enough in reserve to get through the winter.
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4 hours ago, JMFP said:

Yeah I have a TO, the company I work for is fairly small (about 3000 miles of line) and designated a Transmission Owner, our BA is also technically registered as our TO. We operate under them as a regional dispatch center but I have operational control of all my devices in my control room. We own all our own fiber to our substations and all of our ICCP links are dedicated private lines, not that we have a whole lot. Yeah I can't speak about other's networks but if they are not following NERC CIP requirements then shame on them. I know we take it very seriously.

Have them get a direct attack just for funsies and you might not be so calm

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

  What's more likely is a long slog, and one in which the Russian people end up further repressed and further aligned behind their nationalism, and they strike back at the west in some ways that will hurt (watch your utilities, for example).  There is likely to be a lot more pain, and it won't just be the Ukrainians and Russians feeling it.

I know it was touched on last night but we should probably start a separate thread on "Most Likely Russian Cyber-Attacks".  Because I agree they are probably going to be attempted in the near term on the West.  I mean we essentially set off a an economic atomic bomb.   I would think Putin would go cyber before nukes and use the sanctions to justify it.

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6 minutes ago, Wade said:

Good post.  Regards to supply chains, Covid was a huge wakeup call on the current vulnerabilities, so we've been thinking about this for two years already.  It will be a slow process, but a lot of that key stuff (chips, pharmaceuticals, etc.) will be coming home.  Some of it has begun already

I think I saw a show about this. It was on every channel last night around 7.

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What I'm saying is that the "visions of sugarplums" that many of us (including me) would like to have -- Ukrainian military success in holding ground, a popular uprising by the Russian people/Russian leadership to end this in short order is not that likely.  What's more likely is a long slog, and one in which the Russian people end up further repressed and further aligned behind their nationalism, and they strike back at the west in some ways that will hurt (watch your utilities, for example).  There is likely to be a lot more pain, and it won't just be the Ukrainians and Russians feeling it.

Who is saying otherwise?  We have dozens upon dozens of pages saying this exact thing?  Of course it's going to be a long, drawn out affair and Russia is going to spread the pain to the west as best they can.  

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Just now, Skipper said:

I know it was touched on last night but we should probably start a separate thread on "Most Likely Russian Cyber-Attacks".  Because I agree they are probably going to be attempted in the near term on the West.  I mean we essentially set off a an economic atomic bomb.   I would think Putin would go cyber before nukes and use the sanctions to justify it.

200.gif

Low cost, high-yield -- we should absolutely expect it, and some will succeed.

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1 hour ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Reports this morning that Putins approval rating in Russia has gone up. Russians hate the war but they don't like the west attacking their economy. Going to be a long slog. 

So Putin and the Kremlin did a poll.  He has 90% approval rating out of his entire general staff.  Wait, it's now 100% approval!

*Note: Job posting for Kremlin general staff just posted on indeedUR.com

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2 minutes ago, Wade said:

Good post.  Regards to supply chains, Covid was a huge wakeup call on the current vulnerabilities, so we've been thinking about this for two years already.  It will be a slow process, but a lot of that key stuff (chips, pharmaceuticals, etc.) will be coming home.  Some of it has begun already

I’m all in favor of it. 

The problem is, to a certain degree it requires government subsidies, and I have a philosophical problem with government subsidies, because I feel like they distort market forces in ways that are likely to create more problems that they solve. See the massive increase in focus to raising the rate of homeownership across all economic classes under Clinton, and what it resulted in by 2008, or the same thing with Aid for Dependent Families in the 60s, and the destruction of two parent families that ensued. 

On the other hand, a large part of the existing manufacturing base exists because of defense spending. 

I just have a strong distrust of what can occur when the government gets involved, but I don’t see it happening on a large scale or being sustained otherwise. Certainly a discussion topic for a different thread, and there can be a lot of emotion tied to the topic. Anyway, I’m hopeful to more supply chains being developed domestically. It’s sorely needed, IMO. 

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1 minute ago, Post Oak said:

Listening to Dan Carlin's new Common Sense episode about this mess.  He wonders if Russia's goal and Putin's goal are aligned.  Some of the other things we've discussed here.  Is Putin sane?

The USSR and the Russian Empire are not the same thing.  I think Putin leans toward the latter.  Heard from many that study this, that Putin feels that a mistake was made by allowing these lands (that later broke away) to have their own sovereign government, legislature, etc was the critical mistake, as it allowed them to just disengage once things went sideways (USSR mistake).  But the Empire was intact.  One land.  One people.

*sound familiar?

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42 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

In the slightly modified words of esteemed philosopher David Chappelle:

"Russia if you have a problem with the West, you should sanction us.  Sanction us with your army.  Ohhhh! Wait a minute - you no longer have an army. I guess that means you need to shut the fuck up. That's what I'd do if I didn't have no army. I would shut the fuck up. Shut. The. Fuck. Up.  You think we're gonna take orders from a Russian? You might speak 16 languages, but you're gonna need them when you're in Times Square selling fake hats.

Tell me more about these fake hats!

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4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Listening to Dan Carlin's new Common Sense episode about this mess.  He wonders if Russia's goal and Putin's goal are aligned.  Some of the other things we've discussed here.  Is Putin sane?

While I like Dan and Hardcore History is awesome, some of his takes haven’t aged well. In this case, it was the Russian propaganda point of NATO expanding east causing conflict - it’s clear that NATO membership was necessary based on Russia’s actions and the differences in Belarus vs the Baltics. 

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The Kyiv Independent obtained a WhatsApp audio message recorded by a woman residing in the city of Aleysk in Russia’s Altai region some 3,500 kilometers east of Kyiv, the home base for the 35th Brigade.  In the voice message, an unidentified woman weeps telling her fellow WhatsApp group member that the local “tank brigade” was “totally destroyed in Ukraine.”

"Hello girls. It's real bad here in Aleysk. Our tank brigade has been destroyed in Ukraine. Out of 150 guys, only 18 remain. Today first coffins are arriving. 45 two-hundreds (cargo 200 means dead soldiers) arriving in Aleysk. Parents are waiting. Our upstairs neighbour is killed, just a boy. Has a one year old kid. Besides that, Zhilin Zhenya (Evgeniy Zhilin). Besides that... Alexander, stop it (to the kid). Long story short - a lot of them from our factory (she works there apparently?). Three or four. Rest of them from the town Dereven (not sure if I hear the name of the town correctly), contractors (not conscripts) from villages, boys. We got the message about this yesterday. It's crazy. O, fuck, let's go to war (in a sad/ironic tone)!"

https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

The problem is, to a certain degree it requires government subsidies, and I have a philosophical problem with government subsidies, because I feel like they distort market forces in ways that are likely to create more problems that they solve.

Spot on.  There are also different types of subsidies.  Direct cash.  Not a fan.  Tax subsidies, allowing the corporations to keep more of what they make, I can get behind incentive structures like that that engender growth and domestic expansion.  

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10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yup.  Technology manufactures and semiconductor manufacturers are already working to move more of that back to the US.  It's going to be a long process but the past two years have exposed risks that were previously not known, or not fully understood, and are viewed as unacceptable.

 

the semiconductor fab situation has been know for 15 years+.  It started in earnest after the crash in 2000.

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No other avenue? He’s still getting $4B per week from the West for oil and gas. The EU has stated they have enough in reserve to get through the winter.
I agree that the EU should cut him off. But every dollar you take from Putin he takes from his people. So, my prior post still rings true under your scenario.
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1 hour ago, Orange&White said:

The sanctions haven't even been in place long enough for people to have cleared out what was already in their pantry. Wait until the go to the store and what little food is there cost 20x what it did the last time they were there. 

I’ve already said this a couple of times: when the Ukrainian farmers don’t plant this spring, shits going to get very real next fall.

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26 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

Russia is fucked.  Rick Steves just cancelled his tours to Russia

He could pivot to giving advice on how to use guerilla tactics on invading Russians. Want to learn how to make a molotov cocktail to hurl at a Russian troop carrier, ask a local Ukrainian. 

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