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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Nah. I agree that there’s a range of options we could take that might end the war sooner with a UA victory. Some advisable, some not, with all Of them carrying their own risks. But be assured that there is no one in the national security apparatus that would cry or be upset over a complete UA victory tomorrow and there is a lot of concern over what the rebuild will look like the longer this goes on.  Everyone’s preference would be Putin’s army back home and no one shooting.  For domestic purposes alone, Biden would love this to be off of his plate with a clear victory under his belt. 
 

We’re all kind of feeling our way in the dark on the best way to do this, remember when providing Javelins was seen as a major escalation?  
 

 

Yup.

 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's pretty exhausting to constantly censor the discussion about why we're letting more Ukrainians die at the hands of the russian orcs, solely because it hurts some peoples feefees. It's very limiting and constraining to just turn off one's brain the second there's some sort of discomfort about the fact that a controlling majority of our legislative body has a stated goal to stop sending aid to Ukraine

 

Actually it's extremely easy for dozens upon dozens of people participating in this thread to do so.  It's only difficult for a handful of folks. 

 

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

Honestly it's not that hard to separate policy and political discussion from a news thread.  There's a CR thread where you can pontificate to your heart's content.  It's not about feefees getting hurt; it's about keeping the discussion on topic.

Exactly.

 

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7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I've got a war porn fantasy where Poland takes a LOA from NATO, and rolls 100k troops over Belarus right up Putins cornhole.

It's not exactly a fantasy.  It's a legitimate concern.

In March last year, Ukraine signed a mutual defense treaty with Poland and the UK.  I'm not sure if it's been ratified by all parties, but it wasn't interpreted (or intended to be interpreted) as having retroactive effect to apply to Russia.  What it was intended to do is indicate that if a third party (i.e., Belarus) were to join the fight and invade Ukraine, then Poland and the UK would declare war on that intervening third party (i.e., Belarus).

Now, that's a little bit of a problem because Belarus has its own mutual-defense treaty with Russia.  So if Belarus joins Russia in a new Springtime offensive, this could get really messy real quick.

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17 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

It's crazy thinking back how far things have come in the last year. I mean, a year ago we were talking about how there was no way Europe would be able to wean itself off of Russian natty gas any time soon. Of course, most people didn't think Russia would actually invade but it happened. Then Ukraine started fighting back and the president who nobody really thought much of stepped up and said I need ammo, not a ride. Molotov cocktails were made assembly line style and old ladies attacked drones with jars of pickles. The Russians ran out of fuel and farmers were capturing tanks with tractors. Meanwhile Ukrainians made ticktok videos about how to drive Russian tanks and Ukraine declared that those captured Russian tanks would be tax free. All of that seems so long ago now, yet all of it happened in the last year.

Was 2022 the most significant single year since 1945?

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16 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

It's crazy thinking back how far things have come in the last year. I mean, a year ago we were talking about how there was no way Europe would be able to wean itself off of Russian natty gas any time soon. Of course, most people didn't think Russia would actually invade but it happened. Then Ukraine started fighting back and the president who nobody really thought much of stepped up and said I need ammo, not a ride. Molotov cocktails were made assembly line style and old ladies attacked drones with jars of pickles. The Russians ran out of fuel and farmers were capturing tanks with tractors. Meanwhile Ukrainians made ticktok videos about how to drive Russian tanks and Ukraine declared that those captured Russian tanks would be tax free. All of that seems so long ago now, yet all of it happened in the last year.

Great post. I went back last week to about page 40 of this thread just to remember how sure we all were that Putin was going to roll in despite the failed heroics of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick ….I mean Ukraine.   

A year later and its

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6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Great post. I went back last week to about page 40 of this thread just to remember how sure we all were that Putin was going to roll in despite the failed heroics of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick ….I mean Ukraine.   

I recall posting that we have to temper our joy when the first logistics issues came up.  I said it'd still mean a European capital captured in a week.

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6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Great post. I went back last week to about page 40 of this thread just to remember how sure we all were that Putin was going to roll in despite the failed heroics of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick ….I mean Ukraine.   

A year later and its

FCCC5FB2-2EEC-48B0-AAB8-D12A2C1930F4.thumb.jpeg.44c7ac34fdf56ebaef151cb7ab10e0c4.jpeg

 

 

Not everyone thought the UA was going to roll over. @MillerEP, @atomheartbevo and @956 Worldwide and myself had faith. A defensive battle is a bitch to calculate. Russians attacked at the wrong time. 

I did expect them to own the air, but to my happiness that did not happen. 

Fuck Russia and their military. "They look good on the parade ground, but can they fight?" 

The Ukrainians have 8+ years of western training (US, UK, Canada) training on how to run command and control, leadership and coordination. That means a lot. 

Give them M-1's (8 only) to defend Kyiv. That opens up the door for leopards for ops. 

 

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14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not everyone thought the UA was going to roll over. @MillerEP, @atomheartbevo and @956 Worldwide and myself had faith. A defensive battle is a bitch to calculate. Russians attacked at the wrong time. 

I did expect them to own the air, but to my happiness that did not happen. 

 

For sure I’m not saying I read every single post.  Mostly, I remember a kind of universal agreement that even if Russia did take Ukraine, it sure as shit could not hold it, and that it would wind up making the Afghanistan quagmire a pleasant memory.

That last part turned out to be true. 

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5 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

seems like one of those HIMARS rounds that air bursts 300,000 tungsten balls would make short work of that attack. 

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the fuck?  this feels VERY wwi

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

more on the Zaporizhzia leeroys:

This is giving a lot of credence to the thought that Ukrainians are deliberately moving/falling back in certain really open areas, knowing that Russian/Wagner commanders will force their troops/convicts/vehicles to then move across the open ground…and be slaughtered.

This is just brutal.   The Russians are pushing so hard to make some kind of advancement to please Putin, and it sounds like he’s playing commanders off against one another, commanders who are trying to gain access to more resources like fucking artillery shells….making them push for advancements across said open fields.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is giving a lot of credence to the thought that Ukrainians are deliberately moving/falling back in certain really open areas, knowing that Russian/Wagner commanders will force their troops/convicts/vehicles to then move across the open ground…and be slaughtered.

This is just brutal.   The Russians are pushing so hard to make some kind of advancement to please Putin, and it sounds like he’s playing commanders off against one another, commanders who are trying to gain access to more resources like fucking artillery shells….making them push for advancements across said open fields.

Seem like Scythian rope a dope is in full effect here.  If any one should understand the principal of trading land for time, and stretching out your adversary's supply lines, it should be the Ruskies.  Yet here we are.  The only thing we're missing is cavalry charges into artillery.  

Into the Valley of Death rode the 600...

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13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

For sure I’m not saying I read every single post.  Mostly, I remember a kind of universal agreement that even if Russia did take Ukraine, it sure as shit could not hold it, and that it would wind up making the Afghanistan quagmire a pleasant memory.

That last part turned out to be true. 

It was very predictable, but still hard to believe because we thought Russia would be able to use their air assets a lot more, and that they wouldn’t fuck up simple things like keeping trucks fueled.

We went into Iraq in 2003, a country of 25 million, with 250,000 or so troops, and that was not nearly enough to pacify and occupy large parts of the country, which came back to bite us in the ass (that and dismantling Iraqi government infrastructure that we could have used later).  We were there for regime change and a few other objectives.

And this after Iraq had been under devastating sanctions for the past decade.

Meanwhile, Ukraine had over 40 million people, that had 8 years to prepare for a Russian attack that they knew was coming, and Russia was invading with less than 200,000 troops, of which less than 60,000 were actually infantry that could take and hold towns, and they intended to take the country from Kyiv to the eastern border.

And Russia intended to fully annex those areas and make them Russian.  You need a shitload of infantry to truly occupy and control a nation one third your size in population.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Not to discount, in any way, the fighting spirit of Ukraine.  But watching the backfill logistical prowess of the West as other nearby nations arm and supply Ukraine has been nothing short of amazing.  As both a diplomatic and regimentation feat of awesomeness...what may very well be the last conventional war of the Western World will be studied for decades as a feat of mobilized good versus stagnant evil. 

From two families mostly Navy and USMC, I never met a tanker until I was in my late 30's.  Through a mutual friend, I met a Capt. who had just rotated back from the sandbox.  He was an Abrams group C.O.  He came back to the reserves and to teach and raise his family.  And deservedly so.  He told me after a few beers, he felt the future of armor would be soon over...that he was a walking dinosaur before 40.  But he added he felt there'd be one more showcase of rolling armor in a western theater.  Just one.  One last true firefight and that the United States wouldn't be involved directly.  And that his tanker brethren that he helped train via NATO would shine when their time came.  This was about 5-7 years ago.  I don't know where he is now, but I'd like to think he's smiling at all of this.  

I think of my then 19/20 yo father worried grey aboard a Naval frigate off Cuba for the blockade.  Smoking a Player's Navy Cut cigarette (smoking light length) looking at the rest of her fleet as the sun sets.  Not knowing what tomorrow would bring.  Russia imploded upon itself after all this time, and we didn't fire a round,  Not a round, Pop,  

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13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It was very predictable, but still hard to believe because we thought Russia would be able to use their air assets a lot more, and that they wouldn’t fuck up simple things like keeping trucks fueled.

We went into Iraq in 2003, a country of 25 million, with 250,000 or so troops, and that was not nearly enough to pacify and occupy large parts of the country, which came back to bite us in the ass (that and dismantling Iraqi government infrastructure that we could have used later).  We were there for regime change and a few other objectives.

And this after Iraq had been under devastating sanctions for the past decade.

Meanwhile, Ukraine had over 40 million people, that had 8 years to prepare for a Russian attack that they knew was coming, and Russia was invading with less than 200,000 troops, of which less than 60,000 were actually infantry that could take and hold towns, and they intended to take the country from Kyiv to the eastern border.

And Russia intended to fully annex those areas and make them Russian.  You need a shitload of infantry to truly occupy and control a nation one third your size in population.

 

That's where I was too, and I haven't spent a day in the military unlike many of you. It was also my line of thinking was they were using a way too small of a force to occupy the entire country. I initially assumed they were determined to link up Crimea with the Donbas, topple the government in Kyiv, and be done with it.

Had Putin limited his aims to just those two objectives, he might have gotten away with it. But trying to push past Kherson to take the southwest all the way to Odessa while also simultaneously invading the northeast to try and take Kharkiv revealed the egoistic madness of his plans.

I still don't think he intended to occupy all of Ukraine but instead to just make it a much smaller landlocked country whose eastern border would be the Dnieper. Still, it was clear he didn't have enough forces to even do that.

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3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Now that is a sexy beast.  I’m not sure how the 40 mm cannon compares to the Bradley’s 25 mm chain cannon, but it looks perfect for winter fighting.

While a Bradley’s tow missiles will obviously take out a BMP-3, I’m not sure the 25 mm cannon will take it out.  Maybe the spent uranium AP ammo will?

I think I remember the BMP-1 not doing so well against Bradleys in the Gulf wars. 

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25 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 It was also my line of thinking was they were using a way too small of a force to occupy the entire country.

 

remember, Putin's entire yes-men advisors, and every single middle level and higher military officer were telling him, (based on 100% believing idiotic intelligence received from paid Ukrainian ministry spies), that Ukr was going to just roll over and let Russia take over.

Putin didnt think he was sending in an occupying force, he thought he would have the entire country under control and was sending in armed police to quell the minor percentage of Ukr's that would resist.

Pretty much like what happened to Georgia losing South Ossetia &Abkhazia in 11 days  .

Nevermind that South Ossetia is only 1,500 SQ miles, and has like 55,000 people in it.  and  Abkhazia with around 3,300 SQ miles and 220,000

In Putin's mind that kind of takeover  easily scales up to taking over a country with around 45M people  and 233,000 SQ miles

 

thats just a mere 48X the territory of those 2 combined along with 165 TIMES the number of people.   easy peasy in his mind.

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50 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Now that is a sexy beast.  I’m not sure how the 40 mm cannon compares to the Bradley’s 25 mm chain cannon, but it looks perfect for winter fighting.

While a Bradley’s tow missiles will obviously take out a BMP-3, I’m not sure the 25 mm cannon will take it out.  Maybe the spent uranium AP ammo will?

I think I remember the BMP-1 not doing so well against Bradleys in the Gulf wars. 

I don't think the 25mm will have a problem with BMP-3. It just isn't that heavily armored (weighs less than 20 tons). It might take a few hits if it is a version with ERA. 

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13 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Here's mine. Early one freezing February morning, the Ukes unleash a massive ATACMS barrage on supply infrastructure all over the Donbas and Crimea and maybe into Russia proper. They blow up every supply dump their SOF and our intel guys can find and blow up bridges and railroad choke points into Ukraine. Meanwhile, the French and British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles finish off the Kerch Bridge, wreck the port at Sevastopol, and crater every runway on the peninsula. At daybreak the UAF,  behind a barrage of HIMARS and artillery, launch a thunder run of Bradleys, Challengers and Leopards and take Melitopol, completely cutting of Crimea and scaring the shit out of the Mobiks in Donbas, who start surrendering en masse until their own officers start shooting them in the back. By the end of the day, someone finally tells Putin the truth and he starts rattling the nuke saber and demanding a cease fire to negotiate terms.

This is where I usually wake up, but my favorite ending is the one where one of the Oligarchs, pissed he's not going to be able to enjoy F1 or yacht season in the Med, pays one of Putin's bodyguards to put a 9mm round into his ear while he sleeps. 

89E4EAE7-3FE8-4119-83B7-EE8D4A08242E.jpeg.3ad4420930077ed473ff2755e99c9a31.jpeg

“Mister….. what happened to the part where he groggily woke up because of pain below his waist, only to find that his balls were in his own mouth?”

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50 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Here's mine. Early one freezing February morning, the Ukes unleash a massive ATACMS barrage on supply infrastructure all over the Donbas and Crimea and maybe into Russia proper. They blow up every supply dump their SOF and our intel guys can find and blow up bridges and railroad choke points into Ukraine. Meanwhile, the French and British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles finish off the Kerch Bridge, wreck the port at Sevastopol, and crater every runway on the peninsula. At daybreak the UAF,  behind a barrage of HIMARS and artillery, launch a thunder run of Bradleys, Challengers and Leopards and take Melitopol, completely cutting of Crimea and scaring the shit out of the Mobiks in Donbas, who start surrendering en masse until their own officers start shooting them in the back. By the end of the day, someone finally tells Putin the truth and he starts rattling the nuke saber and demanding a cease fire to negotiate terms.

This is where I usually wake up, but my favorite ending is the one where one of the Oligarchs, pissed he's not going to be able to enjoy F1 or yacht season in the Med, pays one of Putin's bodyguards to put a 9mm round into his ear while he sleeps. 

Allow me to participate 

A Russian family of four is driving across the Kerch bridge, on their way to a beach vacation. They’ve heard the stories, but “Crimea is Russian” the father assures his son and daughter in the backseat. Anyway, the Ukraine savages will be dealt with soon enough he continues. Those monsters don’t deserve it. As the father shifts the car into the next gear, an ATACMS missile detonates its 375 pound warhead fifty feet ahead, and the son watches  as his father’s head explodes before the concussion fire wave envelopes the entire car. 

In response, Belarusian troops receive word. The order is to take Kyiv. As the first tank tracks rumble across the border of Ukraine, the commander keeps both eyes peeled to the scope inside the metal tomb. He sees nothing. They continue undeterred. 

Moments later a thunderous groan rips through the air. The “brrrrrrgghhhh” of an A-10 rains down. 

700 km to the west, Polish General Rajmund Andrzejczak holds a secure receiver to his ear. He nods and hands the phone to his lieutenant. The leash has been removed.

 

 

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If we're engaging in military fantasy, mine is imagining several B-52s doing Arc Light runs the length of those trenches and in the heart of Soledar.  Meanwhile B-2s drop JDAMs on every headquarters of regiment or larger size and every railyard throughout temporarily occupied Ukraine, and the Kerch bridge.  Follow up with armored attacks at key points leading to the liberation of Mariupol, Melitopol, and Berdiansk.  Then on to Crimea.

Not likely due to SAMs, but nice to envision.

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