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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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1 minute ago, stone oak said:

Don't shoot the messenger, but I work for a small O&G operator here in Bexar County and my company is claiming we are absolutely essential so we are not even considering shutting down. I'd imagine there are tons of small businesses that are similarly "navigating" the language of the strongly written letter sent out. 

I'm just pissed I don't get to work from home with no pants on.

I'm just pissed that the girl in your avatar never takes her shirt off all the way

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yep, County Judge of Wilco declaring same thing at same press conference.

Why are judges issuing these decrees?   Are these unincorporated areas?  It's all coming from Mayors and Governors here...

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Just now, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'm just pissed that the girl in your avatar never takes her shirt off all the way

Oh she does...google Alexandra Daddario True Detective

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1 minute ago, stone oak said:

Don't shoot the messenger, but I work for a small O&G co here in Bexar County and my company is claiming we are absolutely essential so we are not even considering shutting down. I'd imagine there are tons of small businesses that are similarly "navigating" the language of the strongly written letter sent out. 

I'm just pissed I don't get to work from home with no pants on. Was looking forward to that!

You can still work with no pants on. 

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2 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Don't shoot the messenger, but I work for a small O&G co here in Bexar County and my company is claiming we are absolutely essential so we are not even considering shutting down. I'd imagine there are tons of small businesses that are similarly "navigating" the language of the strongly written letter sent out. 

I'm just pissed I don't get to work from home with no pants on. Was looking forward to that!

I have also received the email stating that O&G is essential.

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Just now, VABuckeye said:

Wasn't the one in Harris Country issued by a judge?  Or maybe I misread the link.

The Harris county judge is more like a county commissioner. Not a judge in the legal sense.

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1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:

Wasn't the one in Harris Country issued by a judge?  Or maybe I misread the link.

It is the county judge. It isn't really a traditional judge, more of the CEO for county. 

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31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

so NYC has 25000+ cases, 780 in ICU, and 184 deaths.  looks like 3/22 deaths were 72 and 3/23 deaths were 36.  Anything we can glean from this information?

I don't think we'll ever be able to look at a 2 day trend to glean anything meaningful.  But NYC reportedly going from approximately 150 ICU Covid as of Friday to 620 (yesterday morning) to 780 today (if your stat is accurate today) is a pretty concerning 5 day trend line.

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11 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Oh yeah.  Hole is dug for parking.  Plus this is a pre-leased corporate HQ project so we have a delivery mandate.  

Your delivery mandate must have an act of god clause, no?

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

It is the county judge. It isn't really a traditional judge, more of the CEO for county. 

Yeah, I think they're called County Presidents in some states.

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Not to diverge too far into the original purpose of this thread, but has there been any new information provided from anywhere that isn't a fucktard slobbering over a spreadsheet regarding a given local climate and vitality of the virus? I'm surprised there's nothing one way or the other bubbling up about that part of the equation.

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On 3/20/2020 at 8:56 AM, JBJ said:

3/20 Update:

We overshot cases and deaths for the third day in a row.

10-day Infectivity: 0.35;  5-day: 0.36

Deaths: 10-day: 0.23; 5-day: 0.29

Today's O/U: 18,340 total cases and 275 deaths

 

Growth of deaths seems to be approaching the overall infection rate.  That would mean the issue is not that we are ramping up testing, but that we've been lucky to not see many deaths up to this point.  I hope I am wrong, but that's what the numbers say, atm.

If we are starting to curtail this thing it's simply not showing up.  I'm highly skeptical that the average incubation period is longer than a week, so I hope we see something in the data soon.  A minor reduction now makes a big difference to what this looks like in a month.

3/24 Update, I didn't want inconsistent weekend reporting to monkey with my numbers:

No change to infectivity, deaths at 0.30/0.27, so overall inching closer to the growth rage of known cases.  Which means total cases is probably what to be focused on still and not deaths, regardless of any testing increases.

We did undershoot cases Sat-Mon, but it wasn't by much.

Today's O/U: 58,160 cases - 735 deaths.

I put together a 70%-reduction scenario based on the assumption that earliest we should see numbers start to decline was yesterday, but that it won't fully show in the numbers for two more weeks.  I know the goal was 80% overall, but the countries handling this the best haven't even achieved that - 70% is more realistic until shown otherwise.

Todays O/U for the "goal scenario": 56,038 cases - 709 deaths.

Btw, there's no lag time for deaths.  Realistically impossible, but any other method looks terrible in the hindcast right now.

I'm locking this scenario in place until it gets rejected by the incoming data.  If I recreate it, I'll post the changes.  The base model is set up to react to each new day of input, so it is constantly evolving.

I have a feeling that our trajectory at the end of the week will not match the goal scenario, but it'll be better than the current trajectory of the data.  - Captain Obvious.

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Not to diverge too far into the original purpose of this thread, but has there been any new information provided from anywhere that isn't a fucktard slobbering over a spreadsheet regarding a given local climate and vitality of the virus? I'm surprised there's nothing one way or the other bubbling up about that part of the equation.

Only news that’s come out recently is that Italy saw cases decrease but deaths increase after falling for two days per the BBC. 

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18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We need to have better terms.   Social distancing should be physical distancing.   

Shelter-in-place sounds like a tornado or hurricane term.   Lockdown isn’t a good term either, since it brings out the fucking Jade Helm/No gestapo in Bastrop(o) idiots.  

Agree on what we are calling it.  SiP has a very distinct meaning here in the Houston area that means you need to act, right now, or possibly risk getting killed.  

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8 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Don't shoot the messenger, but I work for a small O&G co here in Bexar County and my company is claiming we are absolutely essential so we are not even considering shutting down. I'd imagine there are tons of small businesses that are similarly "navigating" the language of the strongly written letter sent out. 

I'm just pissed I don't get to work from home with no pants on. Was looking forward to that!

Many states has declared oil and gas extraction essential, but I believe that mainly refers to field personnel at the drillsite. Office personal can/should work from home. Of course your company could be saying fuck it, let's stay open because of the former. 

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9 minutes ago, Loco said:

Why are judges issuing these decrees?   Are these unincorporated areas?  It's all coming from Mayors and Governors here...

 

7 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

The Harris county judge is more like a county commissioner. Not a judge in the legal sense.

 

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is the county judge. It isn't really a traditional judge, more of the CEO for county. 

Yep.  In Texas county government, the "County Judge" is to the county as a mayor is to a city.  And they have SIGNIFICANT power.  Lots of folks don't pay attention to county government -- they should, as it is a big deal, with a big budget and lots of power.

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3 hours ago, Skipper said:

He said yesterday he would probably just yell at people from the window, which makes sense.  I do think that is going to be the primary impact of the order though.   I'm not sure why these businesses are given their employees letters that say they are essential.  It's not like cops are going to be pulling random cars over.

Hey, that's what I do. 

But I was raised by wolf dogs.

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6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your delivery mandate must have an act of god clause, no?

Yes, and we have the cushion to manage it.  Our in place leases are going to get interesting as force majeure and business interruption attempts to get applied.

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40 minutes ago, Loco said:

I don't think so.  They shut down their trains.  That's almost like a travel ban for them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51957936

Where in your article does it say they are shutting down the trains?  I can't find it, and it isn't in the part you quoted.  In the article I linked it said they are reducing but not stopping the trains, and that the trains will still run for essential personnel. 

 

This is directly from your link:

Quote

A combination of awareness and panic has already led to a 27% drop in traffic on the network. But millions of people continue to take the train to work and home every day.

 

Edited by UT_OB1

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Just now, Neonmoon said:

Many states has declared oil and gas extraction essential, but I believe that mainly refers to field personnel at the drillsite. Office personal can/should work from home. Of course your company could be saying fuck it, let's stay open because of the former. 

At least with respect to the Dallas order, if you read the extremely broad language, coupled with the gray area exceptions judge Jenkins has already acknowledged via twitter, I struggle to find any business not specifically referenced as being banned in the order (i.e., restaurant dining, bars, salons, theaters, gyms, spas, etc.) that isn't arguably an essential business.   It's all form over substance hoping people do the right thing.   For example, law firms are clearly permitted to continue functioning and could presumably require all employees to show up as normal. But basically all are working remotely with skeleton crew onsite to collect mail, etc.

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14 minutes ago, Loco said:

Why are judges issuing these decrees?   Are these unincorporated areas?  It's all coming from Mayors and Governors here...

County Judge controls the County... Commissioners work for them (just like here in Travis)

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4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Many states has declared oil and gas extraction essential, but I believe that mainly refers to field personnel at the drillsite. Office personal can/should work from home. Of course your company could be saying fuck it, let's stay open because of the former. 

I read the list of essentials and my specific job isn't covered by that, but I knew any E&P company would see the header "Oil and Gas Industry" and take that as the green light for everyone. I work from home and have been working this whole time (thank God), but it will make little difference in a week or so. We're all sitting on our ass by April, IMO

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15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your delivery mandate must have an act of god clause, no?

Force Majeure litigation is coming

Some states have previously ruled on narrow readings on the force majeure language, meaning if it doesn't specifically list pandemic, it is not covered but that might be just for oil and gas. For common law, the doctrine of impracticability and the doctrine of impossibility are going to be used like a 10 dollar street walker on shore leave. 

Edited by Neonmoon

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6 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Where in your article does it say they are shutting down the trains?  I can't find it, and it isn't in the part you quoted.  In the article I linked it said they are reducing but not stopping the trains, and that the trains will still run for essential personnel. 

 

This is directly from your link:

 

Maybe it's clearer in this article.  

Quote

NEW DELHI -- As India expanded its virus-containment measures and halted its train network, the country's lifeblood, the federal government warned Monday of strict legal action for those who flout the rules.

The wholesale shutdown of India's massive train system is unprecedented.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/india-halts-lifeblood-train-network-stop-virus-69742485

Edited by Loco

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Isn't Greenspoint a nurse or something? Am I remembering that right? Is he retired or something? Otherwise, I can't imagine why he's not working instead of posting worst-case, jerk-off fantasies on this thread.
IIRC, Greenspoint is in his early 30s.

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Just now, Modessit said:
2 hours ago, C-Man said:
Isn't Greenspoint a nurse or something? Am I remembering that right? Is he retired or something? Otherwise, I can't imagine why he's not working instead of posting worst-case, jerk-off fantasies on this thread.

IIRC, Greenspoint is in his early 30s.

But he identifies as a grumpy old nurse. 

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3 hours ago, Constant said:

Spent all last night blocking traffic for a major incident and it was surreal as people thought it was for the order. Tons of people getting out their cars waving their little “im essential” letter. Feel like we’re in a doomsday movie  

Fake emo support pet owners gonna change their harnesses to 'Essential Services Animal'.

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Well when the dust settles we will probably be able to figure out what the fuck happened.   

Follow the link to more detail....  Go down to transmissions and hit play

Edited by Loco

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 Cloroquine Phosphate is indeed taken on its own to treat malaria. Now, nobody is saying that the president is personally liable for these people's terrible decision making. However, it's strong evidence of the danger that comes from a lack of consistent message from the white house, and the president overriding his medical experts advice and counsel on the topic. 
I saw it mentioned here long before ever hearing about it on TV. Does that mean I can blame you or some other poster? There has been no "official" recommendation. It's only mentioned in the pressers because it's being talked about in public forums and on news outlets and needs to be addressed.

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20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your delivery mandate must have an act of god clause, no?

Depending on the state law in play, it will depend on the specific language of the clause. Burden is on the one otherwise breaching the covenant to prove.

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On the ground up project, has it broken ground yet?  It's obvious that developers are going to undoubtedly suspend new projects, but I'm curious how many will push on with active projects vs. shuttering half-way through construction.  I guess that's a cost-benefit analysis comparing future investment to complete, tenant viability, debt service and degradation of an unfinished structure among other factors.

If in progress projects are halted for long, once all,clear given, inspectors and owners not gonna want work to continue on old stale materials... subgrades/base will need to be reworked, frames will weather, steel will corrode etc.. who pays for those added costs? gonna be a nightmare for some.



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42 minutes ago, Modessit said:
5 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:
I'm sure I'm late on this - but is Dan Patrick really advocating what is effectively death squads for the olds? 
What a dumb fuck, let's just kill several million when the hospital get overrun; this seems very immature, like a toddler who can't understand how time works or that we've talked about how this was going to work.
I feel sorry for Texas and for Texans having someone like this in a leadership position (sorry to CR the thread - but that is how Trump is treating this as well)

Since you just CR'd with this post, I'll reply that some of y'all have been bitching about wanting socialized healthcare for ages and now you complain when it's put into practice? What did you think was going to happen when the government decides who gets limited resources? Italy did the same thing. Spain has retirement homes abandoning olds to die.

You and your stupid political posts are about as welcome in this thread as a shit-shaped swastika in a synagogue. Now piss off.

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26 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Agree on what we are calling it.  SiP has a very distinct meaning here in the Houston area that means you need to act, right now, or possibly risk getting killed.  

And my friends in the Dallas area feel the same way, except it’s the whole tornado thing.  Not a good term.  

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40 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Any idiots found defying orders should have their names put on a list.  Anyone on the list should be the last to receive care, should they need to seek medical attention.

Also, I've heard Austinite's mom is a Super Spreader.

Well, her legs are anyways.

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14 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

So apparently Academy is essential.

Damn straight.  It contains just about everything you'll need for the apocalypse.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And my friends in the Dallas area feel the same way, except it’s the whole tornado thing.  Not a good term.  

Only reason I do not like SiP is it sounds like an aggy came up with it. 

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