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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

23K people? Fuck! We should shut the economy down! Oh wait, we’ve done that for 70 already.  

Child care for most people is not a la carte or daily rate where it just turns off when they’re closed. Most of us are on the hook regardless. Which blows, but I guess that means the workers still get paid. 

No, we've shut it down for the 30k - 70k that are going to be dead by the end of next month, and the hundreds of thousands that would have followed if we didn't. 

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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Lot of folks are being forced right now to purchase technology to enable work from home, and retailers are one way to obtain that.  I suppose some people are just looking for some 6x9s for their bitchin' Camaros, but there's a legitimate need for tech retailers to be open right now.  Online vendors are running out of inventory quick.

 

 

I can attest to this.  Wife's office experimented with work from home; she was the guinea pig.  But she needed a headset with a mike.  I ventured to our local Best Buy on Wednesday afternoon; they had 2 in stock.  Not two models, 2.  The entire shelf space was sold out.  The worker drone told me they had been selling these nonstop.

Now the high end gaming headsets with mikes, located in a different area?  They had plenty of those.  I wasn't about to drop $50 on something she might never use again.

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, we've shut it down for the 30k - 70k that are going to be dead by the end of next month, and the hundreds of thousands that would have followed if we didn't. 

I will bet you $1,000 right now the coronavirus US death toll is less than 50,000 on April 30 2020 according to Johns Hopkins

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, we've shut it down for the 30k - 70k that are going to be dead by the end of next month, and the hundreds of thousands that would have followed if we didn't. 

but what's the number? at some point that conversation will need to be had or the decision will be foisted on all of us.

because unless something changes, that inflection point will come. the current management style is not sustainable. it really is sad seeing how it is playing out real time at the hospitals, but we might have to decide what number is tolerable against ruining people economically for a decade or longer and changing the trajectory of the lives of the majority.

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3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I will bet you $1,000 right now the coronavirus US death toll is less than 50,000 on April 30 2020 according to Johns Hopkins

I will not bet on deaths. I want to be wrong. But, if I'm right, how about we both donate 1,000 to local food banks (same deal I have with wu law). 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Child care for most people is not a la carte or daily rate where it just turns off when they’re closed. Most of us are on the hook regardless. Which blows, but I guess that means the workers still get paid. 


Yep. Seems like a pretty good group of caretakers at my son's daycare, and I'd like for him to continue going there (or maybe not have to go through the pain of finding a new place) and hope they can manage to come out the other side alright.
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Just now, Dahobbs said:

I won't bet on deaths. I want to be wrong. But, if I'm right, how about we both donate 1,000 to local food banks (same deal I have with wu law). 

Of course you won’t.

You just want to run your fucking mouth and pretend to be intellectual.

Put up or shut up

 

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14 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

23K people? Fuck! We should shut the economy down! Oh wait, we’ve done that for 70 already.  

Child care for most people is not a la carte or daily rate where it just turns off when they’re closed. Most of us are on the hook regardless. Which blows, but I guess that means the workers still get paid. 

We had a wave of kids about 6-8 years ago. Must have been something in the water (also happened to have another wave start about 2 years ago). Anyway, what I was referring to was that we have a lot of people at work with K, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd graders, both parents are at places that are still open, and they are now paying extra in child care.  

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9 minutes ago, naija said:

but what's the number? at some point that conversation will need to be had or the decision will be foisted on all of us.

because unless something changes, that inflection point will come. the current management style is not sustainable. it really is sad seeing how it is playing out real time at the hospitals, but we might have to decide what number is tolerable against ruining people economically for a decade or longer and changing the trajectory of the lives of the majority.

No doubt. I think the plan has to be slow it down, buy time for us to get resources available, and then slowly reopening while keeping other safety measures in place (e.g., social distance, hygiene). . 

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

No doubt. I think the plan has to be slow it down, buy time for us to get resources available, and then slowly reopening while keeping other safety measures in place (e.g., social distance, hygiene). . 

I don't think this will happen in time. We are really asking for a Deus Ex Machina at this point, or putting ourselves at the mercy of the generosity of other countries. There are alot of geniuses in this country and hopefully someone proves me wrong, but these aren't "snap your fingers and it happens" sort of resources. 

It truly is embarrassing that we are at the point where point-of-care providers can't get masks to use. These are the cheapest, easiest things to have doubled down and stocked up on. Now we are going to get ventilators? Or what happens when the human capital starts taking a hit? When both ICU doctors are out, what then?

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28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, we've shut it down for the 30k - 70k that are going to be dead by the end of next month, and the hundreds of thousands that would have followed if we didn't. 

The comment was partly tongue in cheek. I understand why we’ve done what we’ve done to this point. Other dude made my point though, we don’t need to pretend like this needs to go on for months or that 20K people dying from this is somehow going to forever change the world and economy. (Well, for the non-20k anyways)

Edit to add I’m pleased that this has spurred some betting. Gotta get my fix since the craps tables are closed and now I get to spectate.

Edited by Enchubben
{take the bet you fucking pussy} - Beerfest
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17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, we've shut it down for the 30k - 70k that are going to be dead by the end of next month, and the hundreds of thousands that would have followed if we didn't. 

Just curious where you are getting your numbers from? 

Week of March 7 our death % from this was 4.2,  Week ending on March 14th, 1.9%, as of right now March 21, 1.2%. 

The Covid tracking project has 1900+ in hospitals throughout the nation right now. Your low figure of 30K is an average of 5k a week from this now until the end of April. So, everyone currently in the hospital right now with Covid will not recover and is basically a goner?  Serious question.  

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2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

The comment was partly tongue in cheek. I understand why we’ve done what we’ve done to this point. Other dude made my point though, we don’t need to pretend like this needs to go one for months or that 20K people dying from this is somehow going to forever change the world and economy. (Well, for the non-20k anyways)

So the biggest thing holding us back now is that we didn't have a plan. We didn't see this coming. There is no off the shelf, do this and get out of jail plan. Lock everybody down, then what? Nobody really knows. The economy won't handle more than a couple of months, then all bets are off. We aren't even on 100% lockdown in the US and we've already decided to spend 25% of our GDP. Next month, we'll spend another amount, the month after that we all go bankrupt. 

There is no plan. Nobody knows what's next. I think we have a good outcome, both medically and economically. But it's best to plan for the worst and hope for the best at this point. And if i haven't said it enough, cardio is rule #1.

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6 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Just curious where you are getting your numbers from? 

Week of March 7 our death % from this was 4.2,  Week ending on March 14th, 1.9%, as of right now March 21, 1.2%. 

The Covid tracking project has 1900+ in hospitals throughout the nation right now. Your low figure of 30K is an average of 5k a week from this now until the end of April. So, everyone currently in the hospital right now with Covid will not recover and is basically a goner?  Serious question.  

Doubling daily deaths every 3-5 days until the end of April (Italy has doubled every 3 days, both cases and deaths, we are on that path). I started at 49 yesterday. It'll just depend on how long the delay is from infection to death on average, as that'll determine when our actions (slowly shutting down) will start showing up as reduced daily deaths. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Also realize that as we sit on 305,000 cases identified globally today (80k of that from China back in Jan.), 62,000 of that 305,000 were diagnosed in the last two days.  The numbers get incomprehensible faster than you can respond. 

"If it feels like you're overreacting, you're doing the right thing."

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
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32 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I will bet you $1,000 right now the coronavirus US death toll is less than 50,000 on April 30 2020 according to Johns Hopkins

50,000 people in one month? Well then nothing to worry about then. If we can just limit it to that amount per month that’s only 600,000 people in a year, or right about the amount who died in four years of the civil war.  If that number holds up...

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2 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Just curious where you are getting your numbers from? 

Week of March 7 our death % from this was 4.2,  Week ending on March 14th, 1.9%, as of right now March 21, 1.2%. 

The Covid tracking project has 1900+ in hospitals throughout the nation right now. Your low figure of 30K is an average of 5k a week from this now until the end of April. So, everyone currently in the hospital right now with Covid will not recover and is basically a goner?  Serious question.  

Exponential growth.

Say there are currently 250,000 infected in the US.  That's approximately 10x our confirmed cases which many believe is a reasonable assumption.

With Covid-19's R0 it is believed that the number of infections doubles roughly every 3 or 4 days.  But let's say 5 days to be a little more conservative.

5 days ago there were only 125,000 infected in the US.

10 days only 63,000.

15 days ago only 32,000.

Virtually all of the infected here in this scenario have contracted Covid-19 in the last 2 weeks.

Most of the serious cases and deaths in this scenario aren't even showing symptoms yet, or are only in the beginning stages of their illness.

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28 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Of course you won’t.

You just want to run your fucking mouth and pretend to be intellectual.

Put up or shut up

 

I countered your terms with my own. I will not accept money from you nor will I send money to you. But, if we are both in the position to be able to do so, I think those hurt most by the shutdown and the virus would appreciate our aid. 

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8 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

So the biggest thing holding us back now is that we didn't have a plan. We didn't see this coming. There is no off the shelf, do this and get out of jail plan. Lock everybody down, then what? Nobody really knows. The economy won't handle more than a couple of months, then all bets are off. We aren't even on 100% lockdown in the US and we've already decided to spend 25% of our GDP. Next month, we'll spend another amount, the month after that we all go bankrupt. 

There is no plan. Nobody knows what's next. I think we have a good outcome, both medically and economically. But it's best to plan for the worst and hope for the best at this point. And if i haven't said it enough, cardio is rule #1.

 2 months of this is a stretch. Not without drastic changes. 

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The Philippines has 307 cases and 19 deaths with the latest death being the House Secretary General of the House of Representatives. 

The good news is only one critical case out of 274 active cases. We can certainly hope that ratio holds, or something closer to it. Manila is still the worse hit.

There are no known cases in Angeles city where I live, or Mabalacat city north of me that Includes much of Clark airport. They have set up rapid response units to put infected cases and their families into quarantine and test each case immediately. Those units also will disinfect the homes. This is actually the type of response I would expect from a high income country,  so that part of the response is impressive, at least until they get overwhelmed. 

The response here is impressive except people are skipping meals or going a day or more without eating. I gave grocery money to 4 families yesterday. The day before I gave someone rent money. The Philippine government is on track to starve many more people than die from the disease.

With major cities locking down my girlfriend's village  of maybe 300 people isolated on Daram island has limited access to supplies. The will have to return to subsistence fishing.

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6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I countered your terms with my own. I will not accept money from you nor will I send money to you. But, if we are both in the position to be able to do so, I think those hurt most by the shutdown and the virus would appreciate our aid. 

How about we each just writing a fucking check to the local food bank and every shut the fuck up. 

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1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Passed spain and germany in the same day

 

USA!USA!

Fuck Facism...we did it!  

Wait, what did we pass 'em on?  

Edited by Lobo
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Yep. Seems like a pretty good group of caretakers at my son's daycare, and I'd like for him to continue going there (or maybe not have to go through the pain of finding a new place) and hope they can manage to come out the other side alright.
Yeah it's basically charity at this point which I'm okay with as long as I don't become unemployed in the meantime.
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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

How about we each just writing a fucking check to the local food bank and every shut the fuck up. 

Ugh, who writes checks anymore (also, I guess technically checks are potentially infection vectors for the virus)? The Houston one takes credit and EFT. 

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