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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Slightly before and then overlapping. Except unlike CTJ, I'm not a hyperbolic faget. I've never owned an Acura, or a two seat vehicle. Meanwhile, he drove that Intrepid with bald tires for a long ass time. 

This seems like the start of a pussycat fight. Who drove a shittier car, Sydney with the purple sparkly girl car or CTJ with the beat up, rusty Dodge Intrepid?

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12 minutes ago, pacman said:

It costs more in dollars and time, I would assume. The sheer volume, as well, may not make it feasible.

I'm pretty sure the Nazi's had this down. We obviously just aren't dedicated enough. <sarcasm>

But really, I'm pretty sure this is right. It's much easier and cheaper to mass bury bodies than cremate them. Cremation may be cheaper than typical burial funeral services, but mass graves aren't the typical service. Also, I don't think we have large enough ovens for the amount of bodies. 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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I'm pretty sure the Nazi's had this down. We obviously just aren't dedicated enough.
But really, I'm pretty sure this is right. Its much easier and cheaper to mass bury bodies than cremate them. Cremation may be cheaper than typical burial funeral services, but mass graves aren't the typical service. Also, I don't think we have large enough ovens for the amount of bodies. 
 

Fuck this timeline
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2 hours ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

The beaches around Corpus Christi have been packed, at times 

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22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Why in the hell are they not cremating the bodies?  That makes no sense at all.

They're trying to allow for people to claim an actual body.  They just can't keep storing them -- they're out of refrigerated storage.  Seriously, they are using a shitload of refrigerated trucks, but even those are overflowing.  So, if you want to have a body for people to claim, but you don't have enough refrigerated storage....you bury them.  In a fucking trench.  In America.  In 2020.

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22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Why in the hell are they not cremating the bodies?  That makes no sense at all.

I don't know for sure, but I imagine some folks religious beliefs would prohibit that.  I have seen some articles that indicated the funeral home business was overwhelmed too.

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Florida State offensive lineman Andrew Boselli revealed Friday that he has recovered from the coronavirus.

In a first-person account on the Florida State football website, Boselli recounted how he initially dismissed any danger the coronavirus posed to himself, a healthy 22-year-old athlete. He figured only the elderly or those with underlying health problems were at risk

That changed around St. Patrick's Day when the coronavirus swept through his family in Jacksonville, Florida. His father, former NFL offensive lineman Tony Boselli, tested positive first. Then Andrew and his mother and brother all got it.

Andrew Boselli wrote that a day after he was tested for the virus on March 21, "I woke up feeling like I'd been hit by a bus." He had a fever that spiked to 103 degrees, felt shortness of breath and at one point "was glued to the couch with no energy, no appetite and nothing but fluids and over-the-counter medicines to help me feel better."

 

Though doctors considered his case "mild," Boselli wrote, "my experience was anything but mild."

The situation was far worse for his father, Tony, who got pneumonia and was admitted to the ICU. In an interview last week with the Florida Times-Union, Tony Boselli said, "The worst was my second day in ICU when they were upping my oxygen levels. That was probably the lowest, scariest moment. I had no family around me. I can't remember exactly what the doctor said, something about the machine needing to go to another level for more oxygen if that didn't work.

Andrew Boselli also addressed that fear.

"We couldn't be with him, couldn't see his face and couldn't hear his voice," he wrote. "... In the span of a week, I went from not really taking this virus seriously to realizing that I could lose my father."

The Boselli family has since recovered, and Tony is back home. Andrew decided to share his story to emphasize how seriously people should take the virus' threat.

"This whole journey has been a wake-up call for me," Andrew Boselli wrote. "We are all fighting against a serious illness that doesn't care who you are or where you're from, and one that can cause major problems no matter how old you are. Yes, social distancing is hard.

"And, for me, I know I'm counting down the days until I can be around my coaches and teammates again, especially after the way they supported me over the last few weeks. But the only way for that to happen is listen to the experts and follow their guidance. This is something that needs to be taken seriously. And if we all do our part, we can get through it."

Since this is a sport board, former NFL LT Tony Boselli and his family got it. This short story gives some contrast in the affects on son and father.

Edited by pacman
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13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  Those are quarter over quarter numbers.  Sure we all agree, fuck the banks, but you’re acting like that’s some rosy outlook.  It’s ass my dude.  

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

None of this even considers all of the global dependencies tied to recovery, and other countries are going to have to swing back well too. We don't even know what kind of social and economic wounds this has uncovered and how they'll be repaired in other places, for better or worse.

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

 

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I still don't like the direction Minnesota's daily numbers are going. Third day in a row above 80 positive tests. 

I’ve pretty well started to ignore testing numbers. The only thing concrete to me is hospitalizations/icu’s/vents as even deaths are a shit show with misappropriation, home deaths, and nursing home deaths.

And even those ‘concrete’ numbers are really backward looking by a week at least.
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5 minutes ago, bluto said:


I’ve pretty well started to ignore testing numbers. The only thing concrete to me is hospitalizations/icu’s/vents as even deaths are a shit show with misappropriation, home deaths, and nursing home deaths.

And even those ‘concrete’ numbers are really backward looking by a week at least.

have you seen specific US numbers on hospitalizations, ICU, and vents?  I ask because I can't find anyone tracking those for all 50 states.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fun fact, CloseToJumping's first real car purchase when I met him out of college was a Dodge Intrepid. I believe he drove that car for like 8 years without an air conditioner in Houston until he drove it into the wall on a flyover to collect on the $500 of insurance value. 

I can hear the collective clicking sounds of TexAgs googling the statute of limitations on that right now. 

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The Federal Emergency Management Agency warned last year that a pandemic caused by a novel strain of influenza would cripple the country‘s response capabilities by driving millions of people into overwhelmed hospitals.

The report, which was written before the new coronavirus first surfaced in China, offered these prescient predictions: The deluge of patients would create “a shortage of medical supplies, equipment, beds, and healthcare workers.”

FEMA‘s warning, issued in July, forecast with stunning accuracy the social, economic and personal devastation that the ongoing pandemic has caused.

The report, which has not been previously described, was drafted in collaboration with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and other federal organizations.

Didn't post the whole article, it's not paywall but does contain the T word

FEMA Report Warned of Pandemic Vulnerability Months before COVID-19

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fema-report-warned-of-pandemic-vulnerability-months-before-covid-19/

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40 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

You make an excellent point that was also articulated by Jonah Goldberg this morning - for the economy to return to "normal," people are going to need to see evidence that large gatherings are safe and that will take time.

 

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17 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

 

You are vastly overstating impact of sports, which isn't surprising given the nature of this site (not meant as a dig at you, more that sports is what drew most of us here). Yes, sports is in the shitter, but you can get data directly from the Bureau of Economic Activity at Dept of Commerce that includes things like economic output by industry. The category of "Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities, which is ~$210B in output, accounts for less than 1% of private industry, let along if you include Govt.

Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, Manufacturing, Professional Services, Retail, Wholesale, Information, and Healthcare are what move the needle, and all of those have numerous subcomponents that outweigh sports. There are still some big losers in there to be sure, but grocery is doing ok. Most professional services are still doing ok. If you  bring public sector back in, that is increasing spending. When you take full view, a 40% decrease Q/Q is still really bad, but it's not like all economic activity is completely stopping.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fun fact, CloseToJumping's first real car purchase when I met him out of college was a Dodge Intrepid. I believe he drove that car for like 8 years without an air conditioner in Houston until he drove it into the wall on a flyover to collect on the $500 of insurance value. 

lying top gun GIF

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1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

You make an excellent point that was also articulated by Jonah Goldberg this morning - for the economy to return to "normal," people are going to need to see evidence that large gatherings are safe and that will take time.

 

I'm with you, there isn't a government official running a free city, state or country on this planet that's ultimately going to drive outcomes with declarations or pleas after this. We're going to have to know what the fuck it is we're dealing with and how it will be handled before we ever show up en masse to much. (Maybe parks, beaches, and religious establishments can be excluded from this for varying reasons, but they're not going to drive western economies anyway)

But in terms of the look forward around human behaviors and how that translates to business/religious/governmental actions, I really don't think anyone, anywhere has a clue. The best anyone can do is admit they don't know shit, and that would include economists, religious leaders, business leaders, government officials, no one knows.

This is not comparable to the Great Depression. Dot.bomb and Great Recessions were byproducts of fraud and gaming and gradual to boot. No one shut everything down overnight in the Spanish Flu epidemic and the world is too different than it was in the panics of 1893 and 1907. There isn't a comparative precedent whatsoever for this, and it is global. Once that is an understood given, sure, let's make predictions and I hope the hopeful ones are correct for all of us. 

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59 minutes ago, JOSEYWALES66 said:

Iran seems to be past their peak.  So that’s some good news. 

I think Iran was actually past it's peak when they lost to the Greeks in Xerxes second invasion attempt, but that's just me.

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

 

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

None of this even considers all of the global dependencies tied to recovery, and other countries are going to have to swing back well too. We don't even know what kind of social and economic wounds this has uncovered and how they'll be repaired in other places, for better or worse.

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

 

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

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9 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You are vastly overstating impact of sports, which isn't surprising given the nature of this site (not meant as a dig at you, more that sports is what drew most of us here). Yes, sports is in the shitter, but you can get data directly from the Bureau of Economic Activity at Dept of Commerce that includes things like economic output by industry. The category of "Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities, which is ~$210B in output, accounts for less than 1% of private industry, let along if you include Govt.

Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, Manufacturing, Professional Services, Retail, Wholesale, Information, and Healthcare are what move the needle, and all of those have numerous subcomponents that outweigh sports. There are still some big losers in there to be sure, but grocery is doing ok. Most professional services are still doing ok. If you  bring public sector back in, that is increasing spending. When you take full view, a 40% decrease Q/Q is still really bad, but it's not like all economic activity is completely stopping.

Fair enough. I was trying to highlight it in the abstract versus an officially tracked number, and quickly since the post was already long-winded.

I was thinking not just about attendance and ticket sales, but money in advertising on location and through platforms, plus sports-associated: travel to and from, hotel stays, merchandise, equipment, gambling, food and alcohol sales, watching parties at bars, restaurants, and homes (buying goods for the party at the home), and so forth. Athlete pay, collegiate revenue, so on and so forth. Plus, major events like the Super Bowl and CFP that drive big impacts for the locales. If that's all still coming in below 1% of our GDP, then that's great news because I think that is wrecked until we have better info, which doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

I do.  It already dropped 10% in Q1, and most of the major SIP orders didn't go into effect until the middle or end of March.  That 10% drop is representative of about 2-3 weeks of downside in the general economy, against the entire quarter. 

April is going to be an unbelievable disaster, the kind of numbers we've never seen in this country in MoM declines, not even during the Great Depression.  May will continue the trend if SIP restrictions remain all the way through the end of that month.  

I'm definitely hopeful we'll see the V and that the recovery will begin ramping quickly in Q3.

Edited by utee94
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4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

One third of American renters didn't pay April rent. As this continues, that number will be higher for May.  Unpaid rent will also correspond with unpaid mortgage payments for the landlord. It isn't hard to see how we get to 40%.  

I don't see any numbers for car loans, but most lenders are now offering deferments on existing car notes. I imagine a lot of people are taking advantage of that.  

Utilities are outright banned from disconnecting service in many places right now. A significant portion of those bills aren't getting paid either.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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