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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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So for 4/7 it was the tops? Is a pandemic at what might be its peak being the top killer against “averages” of all others really surprising.

On 9/11/2001 murder was the top killer in America. Shocking I know.

Not diminishing the overall pandemic but seriously this is statistics being used in a poor way
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4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
31 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

In New Jersey or America? I’d double that 5 to 10 and probably make it 15x higher

Yeah, I would say actual numbers of cases in NYC are probably 10 to 20 times the reported number. Wouldn't be shocked if a quarter to half the city has had it.

Which would seem to mean that without an extended Wuhan style lockdown, the only think that would stop the spread in NYC is a vaccine or herd immunity. 

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Which would seem to mean that without an extended Wuhan style lockdown, the only think that would stop the spread in NYC is a vaccine or herd immunity. 
My vote is herd immunity. Even a fast vaccine is too long to demand all people continue isolating (until the beginning of 2021). Also, the economic damage that would bring for the city and state of NY would take a decade to recover from.

Once over the initial hump, and hospital capacity and supplies are better, then I think you have to come up with a better fucking plan that this NY on Pause.

The vulnerable should continue to quarantine, but the rest of us should start getting back to it.

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

My vote is herd immunity. Even a fast vaccine is too long to demand all people continue isolating (until the beginning of 2021). Also, the economic damage that would bring for the city and state of NY would take a decade to recover from.

Once over the initial hump, and hospital capacity and supplies are better, then I think you have to come up with a better fucking plan that this NY on Pause.

The vulnerable should continue to quarantine, but the rest of us should start getting back to it.
 

I think that’s the only path forward for NYC. 

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My vote is herd immunity. Even a fast vaccine is too long to demand all people continue isolating (until the beginning of 2021). Also, the economic damage that would bring for the city and state of NY would take a decade to recover from.

Once over the initial hump, and hospital capacity and supplies are better, then I think you have to come up with a better fucking plan that this NY on Pause.

The vulnerable should continue to quarantine, but the rest of us should start getting back to it.

Sounds like you should get out there and start licking door knobs.
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31 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:


So for 4/7 it was the tops? Is a pandemic at what might be its peak being the top killer against “averages” of all others really surprising.

On 9/11/2001 murder was the top killer in America. Shocking I know.

Not diminishing the overall pandemic but seriously this is statistics being used in a poor way

We hit 2000+ today, so assuming that is a peak may not be a very safe assumption at all. But you're right, that is a misleading statistic and also not the best one to drive home the potential danger. The best one so far is that New York (the state) has now experienced 4 days in a row where covid-19 deaths alone nearly doubled its typical total daily deaths (~800 vs 421). New Jersey has also experienced several days in a row where covid-19 deaths equaled or surpassed its average total daily deaths (~191). And, Michigan (270 average vs 205 for covid-19 today) and Massachusetts ( 158 average vs 96 today) got close to those numbers as well. 

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

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Maybe what our public health organizations, such as the CDC and the FDA, really need is more lawyers threatening to sue individuals for individualized medical decision making.  Could have turned the corner on the botched test reagents and the regulatory red tape preventing private lab ramp up I am sure.  The answer to every good public health crisis is more lawyers. 

Huh, ok. So many words. Remind me what percentage of doctors generate 40% of malpractice claims, would you?

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36 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Huh, ok. So many words. Remind me what percentage of doctors generate 40% of malpractice claims, would you?

It’s a trap!  Bozo wants to represent that “percentage of doctors” when they sue the parties who try to take away their medical licenses. 

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Sounds like you should get out there and start licking door knobs.

Not to mention “herd immunity” isn’t even a thing without a vaccine.

How exactly can we achieve herd immunity while waiting for a vaccine?

Infect everyone on purpose? Then what’s the point?

Q: What is herd immunity?

Manish Sadarangani: Herd immunity describes how a population is protected from a disease after vaccination by stopping the germ responsible for the infection being transmitted between people. In this way even people who cannot be vaccinated can be protected. For example, the bacteria meningococcus and pneumococcus can cause blood poisoning (septicaemia) and meningitis. In most people the bacteria live harmlessly in the throat and do not causes disease, but sometimes they get into the bloodstream leading to these severe infections. They can live harmlessly in the throat of one person but if they spread to someone who is particularly susceptible (such as a young baby) they can cause severe disease. By being vaccinated an individual is not only protected from being infected themselves but they then also cannot pass this infection onto other people, where it may cause severe disease. However, for herd immunity to work a large proportion of the population need to be vaccinated.


More at the link - https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work
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Oh, I've seen impassioned pleas by various right-wingers who listen to some dipshit "epidemiologist" that we should have all kids and healthy adults out milling about to spread the disease as quickly as possible, in search of this elusive "herd immunity".

Sure, if we infect 80% of the population (his goal), then MAYBE the other 20% might be moderately safe, but he seems to be neglecting a few key details.

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As of today, we are enforcing the social gathering ordinance in Dallas. Please don’t make me come to your house/business to write some weird ass citation. Just stay the fuck away from other people so I can stay the fuck away from you.

 

edit: Not preaching to this thread as much as I am the universe. I think the majority of us here are on the right track. 

Edited by Constant
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So it looks like Abbott is gonna start re-opening businesses in May, which I don't have a problem with. What I will have a problem with is the rhetoric used during this thing. I'm already seeing tons of idjits on fb saying "finally so glad this will be over" etc, etc. People need to understand that this is a gradual thing, but unfortunately I don't think the general dumbass population will get that. I could see us opening a lot of stuff back up in early May, only to see us have to close shit down again and have June/July be another March/April because everyone decided that it was over and went 100% back to their old ways. 

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As of today, we are enforcing the social gathering ordinance in Dallas. Please don’t make me come to your house/business to write some weird ass citation. Just stay the fuck away from other people so I can stay the fuck away from you.
 
edit: Not preaching to this thread as much as I am the universe. I think the majority of us here are on the right track. 

Snitch tip: Oak Cliff is really bad at this as you know . The soccer fields around Rosemont elementary, Lake Cliff park, Kiest Park, lots of house parties, etc. I guarantee you’ll be kept busy from those 3 places.
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8 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Ah, okay, this lines up with the data I saw. Using April 5, a Sunday, as a the cutoff date means delayed reporting of Friday-Sunday payments. The data I saw was as of 4/6, meaning those weekend payments were able to be processed.

A nontrival difference, but still, the overarching point is the same. People are going to miss payments on rent, mortgage, car loans, utilities, whatever.

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38 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
Sounds like you should get out there and start licking door knobs.

It is possible I already had it. We had something take down most of our office. Everyone tested negative for the flu.

I hope you're right but I'm getting the feeling that most of us who might have "already had it" based on shit we had in February didn't have it. Check the other thread (the murder/suicide thread before it went that way)... lots of antibody tests turning up negative.  

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6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Ah, okay, this lines up with the data I saw. Using April 5, a Sunday, as a the cutoff date means delayed reporting of Friday-Sunday payments. The data I saw was as of 4/6, meaning those weekend payments were able to be processed.

A nontrival difference, but still, the overarching point is the same. People are going to miss payments on rent, mortgage, car loans, utilities, whatever.

The numbers are accurate but motivation is hard to judge. A lot of places don't have late fees until the 5th. Some people with money may also be trying to wait for a potential rent freeze law as well. There is zero chance any rent freeze will pay back paid rent. Better to not pay if one is coming. 

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9 minutes ago, Stunns38 said:


Snitch tip: Oak Cliff is really bad at this as you know . The soccer fields around Rosemont elementary, Lake Cliff park, Kiest Park, lots of house parties, etc. I guarantee you’ll be kept busy from those 3 places.

Yeah, the house parties are the worst. 30-40 people in a small area. There is a specific unit that will be enforcing during the daytime and evening hours. Calls regarding large gatherings of people are receiving a higher priority than their normal code would receive. There isn’t going to be any way to stop it all completely. 

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For all the talk of things starting to level off, we just finished our worst day ever.

35977 new cases and 2102 dead, according to 1point3acres.

Yap. Hopefully we’re peaking there’s a straight line the last several days between 30-35k so while the daily cases are still sky high... we’re not jumping to 40-50k+/a day. Hopefully we don’t

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Seems like a lot of dumbasses will be getting together with family & friends for Easter this weekend, so I won't be surprised to see another surge coming up. Hope I'm wrong. My neighbor still isn't taking this shit seriously. Says "it's fake". Lets his 10 & 6 YOs run around unsupervised, has other kids over for playdates inside the house, has his friends, his dad, & his wife's sister over, etc. Then to top it off, they go visit grandma in CC & leave the youngest there with her. Brilliant. I fucking 100% guarantee I'll see a few cars parked in front of his house on Sunday for a cookout.

It's amazing. I'm not sure what it would take to convince some people & get them to take this shit seriously.

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3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:


Not to mention “herd immunity” isn’t even a thing without a vaccine.

How exactly can we achieve herd immunity while waiting for a vaccine?

Infect everyone on purpose? Then what’s the point?



More at the link - https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work

You don’t necessarily need a vaccine. I guarantee there are pockets of nyc that are getting some very real benefits of herd immunity. 

You don’t get everyone sick on purpose but on purpose or not, a shitload of NY/NJ people have it.  

Not really disagreeing with you - you’re right for most of the country but certain very hot spots may see some (nothing close to complete) benefits of herd immunity.  

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5 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Post this when anyone post the flu, car wreck, ect data bs

That graph is questionable, at best; without numbers from previous years for the same types of deaths, obviously minus the CV-19.  It's weird as fuck that this type of info is so absent from conversations, ain't it?

If someone has CV-19 and they step on a landmine, they didn't die of CV-19.    Same goes for someone who's 85, with diabetes and heart conditions.  Just one guy's opinion.

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9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh, I've seen impassioned pleas by various right-wingers who listen to some dipshit "epidemiologist" that we should have all kids and healthy adults out milling about to spread the disease as quickly as possible, in search of this elusive "herd immunity".

Sure, if we infect 80% of the population (his goal), then MAYBE the other 20% might be moderately safe, but he seems to be neglecting a few key details.

You just can't avoid it can you ?  Jesus Christ this thread takes hard swerves towards shit when you and a few others show up.

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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6 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Yap. Hopefully we’re peaking there’s a straight line the last several days between 30-35k so while the daily cases are still sky high... we’re not jumping to 40-50k+/a day. Hopefully we don’t

Have you considered the possibility that we're simply at the upper limit of our testing capacity? 

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Good news! For anyone struggling with your home office, the "egonomics" experts at A&M have you covered.

Egonomics - The study of applying moral victories and claiming credit for the success of others to make yourself feel better.80d461f638f2e41d1749318439d7cacb.jpg

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1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

Started wondering that same thing about 3 weeks ago.

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

Then we just go nuculer.

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2 hours ago, Iceman said:

That graph is questionable, at best; without numbers from previous years for the same types of deaths, obviously minus the CV-19.  It's weird as fuck that this type of info is so absent from conversations, ain't it?

If someone has CV-19 and they step on a landmine, they didn't die of CV-19.    Same goes for someone who's 85, with diabetes and heart conditions.  Just one guy's opinion.

That graph is absolute horseshit. That’s an average/day graph but the COVID stat is a single day cherry picked for maximum effect.  

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10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Started wondering about that about 3 weeks ago.

A few problems: It would kill many of the terrorist leaders who like to get others to do their bidding. And overall, it would kill as high or higher percentage of terrorists than their targets. Plus, of course, all the virgins in heaven might come down with it.

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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

A few problems: It would kill many of the terrorist leaders who like to get others to do their bidding. And overall, it would kill as high or higher percentage of terrorists than their targets. Plus, of course, all the virgins in heaven might come down with it.

Plus, they can’t afford better than Soviet era AK-47’s circa 1986 for their weaponry, but they’re going to start spending billions on microbio labs?

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weekend-morning-awesomeness-38-photos-30

 

5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You don’t necessarily need a vaccine. I guarantee there are pockets of nyc that are getting some very real benefits of herd immunity. 

You don’t get everyone sick on purpose but on purpose or not, a shitload of NY/NJ people have it.  

Not really disagreeing with you - you’re right for most of the country but certain very hot spots may see some (nothing close to complete) benefits of herd immunity.  

That's a nice theory you got there...  only problem is that we (the US) do not seem to have the competency to take advantage if there are in fact portions of country/population that might have developed anti-bodies in significant numbers.   Testing has been so mismanaged we have no idea whats happening and therefore must assume the worst scenario until we unfuck ourselves with some reliable data and a *gasps* competent approach to managing this crisis beyond a city/state level.

Of the tests performed (arguable against a VERY favorable population) is any region well above a 10% positive?   -seriously whats the highest % of positive testing we have seen?

 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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