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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, that and just saying the Swedes haven't shutdown is a bit misleading. The government hasn't mandated shutdowns, but people, at the government's suggestion, are doing a lot of economic shutdown on their own:

"Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.

Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.

'We don’t have a radically different view,' Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. 'The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.'"

 

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

From my understanding of Polis’ announcement, it’s transitioning from a stay at home order to a “strong suggestion” as certain businesses can reopen. 

For all the sound and fury over when to reopen and Sweden vs the rest of the world, my prediction for the last couple of weeks has been that most areas (outside of NYC metro) are headed for a Sweden-like policy very soon.  For better or worse, they just didn't go into to the government-mandated lock down that we went through first, but we will ultimately end up with very similar policies (I think that's largely their point about sustainability). Large crowds and gatherings will be banned, strong social distancing and hygiene will be encouraged, and masks potentially mandated, but many business will reopen soon.  There's really not much practical choice.  Widespread testing and tracing and quarantining would be ideal, but it's a pipe dream.  

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3 minutes ago, B00M said:

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Refreshed the UT model for Texas again not expecting to see a change and instead got a big one:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 64%
Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 89%
Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 96%

This model is very similar to the IHME model, but it's supplemented with GPS data on social distancing.  Still, it's a death-curve fitting exercise, not an epidemiological model.  So as new daily death data comes in, they update the likelihood the curve has peaked.  If you download the daily COVID tracking data , you will see that daily deaths in Texas have fallen in the last few days, hence an increase in the chance we've peaked.  

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Some of them don’t even know how to ride bikes.  I’ve seen at least 3 different kids that should be between 6-8 grade learning how to ride bikes with their parents since this shit has started.  

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

Edited by tantric superman
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2 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

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They make a 1 gallon version as well.  Ask me how I know.  

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3 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

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Can you pass the maple syrup please? | Christmas movie quotes, Elf ...

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Just now, UT_OB1 said:

They make a 1 gallon version as well.  Ask me how I know.  

she was ordering shit yesterday for her HEB curbside in a week and asked me if I needed deodorant. i said "you bought me 4 things of deodorant 2 weeks ago".

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so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.
0064420939721_A
 

Should be good until the pandemic of 2122
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6 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

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We eat a lot of pancakes. HEB has been consistently out of syrup. Right now we have like five or six 8oz bottles of syrup in our pantry. Can I borrow some syrup? 

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8 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

I hear ya.  I was always a caution to the wind type, and after I was cleared to play athletics (that’s a long ass story that I need to and will tell sometime) I was riding BMX shit as soon as I got on a bike.   But seeing 12 year olds try and learn to ride a bike is heartbreaking to me.  “Sign of the times” and yada yada, but for God’s sake teach your kid how to ride a bike people.   They’ll actually be better drivers if they know how to ride a bike as a kid (jackwagons who think they can do whatever they want on the bike excluded, there’s a thread for that) 

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12 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

spacer.png

 

Did you ask her if she preferred jelly or syrup?

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4 minutes ago, po elvis said:

she was ordering shit yesterday for her HEB curbside in a week and asked me if I needed deodorant. i said "you bought me 4 things of deodorant 2 weeks ago".

Did you know that you can order cereal 8-12 boxes at a time?  We had 8-12 boxes of of 3-4 different cereals (each, so 40ish boxes of cereal) to kick this all off.  I've also got enough canned cheese, chili and beans to shut down our local sanitation plant.  I really must apologize for my house contributing to the run on food items last month.  

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22 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

Now build him a ramp and watch Evil Knievel videos together.

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31 minutes ago, B00M said:

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Refreshed the UT model for Texas again not expecting to see a change and instead got a big one:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 64%
Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 89%
Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 96%

It seems like that kind of analysis would only be useful if we were able to maintain the current lockdown for a long period of time, which we are not.

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1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Now build him a ramp and watch Evil Knievel videos together.

I asked the 3/4 year old with the razor what he keeps in his backpack.

"A bow and arrow.  And a bong,"

"A bong?"

"A bomb!  Made of sticks!"

My wife says I need to stop teasing the kids because there parents are going to start freaking out. 

(I was walking the dog, and the five year old was petting him, and the dog was licking her, and she shrieks "He's smelling my vagina!" at the top of her lungs.  I backed away slowly.) 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I just cut my own hair today... It didn't go terribly much to my surprise. I'm sure my neckline and rear taper are a steaming hot mess though.

My wife cut my 10yo son's hair today.  It.. wasn't good...

She offered to cut mine, and I politely declined.  So, my descent into further looking like early-Full House-John Stamos continues.

 

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2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Governor Pritzker was on the news talking about how our peak is midMay.  We were all confused as to what the hell he is talking about.  Everything we have seen has us coming down off of the peak already

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

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2 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

Totally agree, slowly open shit up morons.  Chicago has the capacity.  

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8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Totally agree, slowly open shit up morons.  Chicago has the capacity.  

I can't wait for this to pass, because I'm tired of actually liking a Sooner-- I'd really enjoy getting back to hating you properly.  

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39 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

(I was walking the dog, and the five year old was petting him, and the dog was licking her, and she shrieks "He's smelling my vagina!" at the top of her lungs.  I backed away slowly.) 

 

 

You're also lucky the dog didn't bite you.

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21 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

This is a fun read...

What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/839456638/what-happens-if-u-s-reopens-too-fast-federal-documents-show-coronavirus-projecti

The last sentence is the kicker...  "Epidemiological modeling needs to happen in the open. Usually you put a lid on the garbage."

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1 hour ago, BigDHornfan said:

Dallas County just voted to extend SIP until May 15.

Abbot was asked about this today at his PC.  He stated that he will be issuing a new executive order on 4/27. To the extent it has statewide re-opening directives, they will override any local directives.  

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10 minutes ago, Loco said:

This is a fun read...

What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/839456638/what-happens-if-u-s-reopens-too-fast-federal-documents-show-coronavirus-projecti

The last sentence is the kicker...  "Epidemiological modeling needs to happen in the open. Usually you put a lid on the garbage."

I found this one great: "Experts said government officials should publicize their coronavirus assumptions so everyone can be confident in their work."

Found below where their projections range from: 94k to 1.1M

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1 hour ago, BigDHornfan said:

Dallas County just voted to extend SIP until May 15.

I heard that as well but haven't heard any explanation, or most importantly, anything resembling a fucking plan.   The reality is that the curve has flattened in Dallas.  Period. We have plenty of hospital capacity.  Unless the hospital data to be released today (which they are several hours late updating, per usual) shows a completely unexpected increase over the weekend, hospitalizations peaked 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard or read anything about being significantly low on PPE or supplies either. 

So the only thing that may be better on May 15 vs. May 1 is testing.  And if that is what they are waiting to figure out, then just fucking say so.   Seriously, say we want to have better testing and contact tracing in place, we think we will have that by May 15th, here is our plan.  

Otherwise, it's intellectually dishonest to anyone that is actually paying attention.  The curve isn't going to become meaningfully flatter between now and then.  It pretty much is what it is.  I just think extending without simultaneously releasing your game plan is fucking stupid and will backfire.   Jenkins is blowing a lot of the goodwill he had early on IMO.  The reality is Dallas hasn't had the suffering other places have had (largely because of the orders) but you can't just keep extending it out without explaining to the public why it is necessary to make that decision now, on April 21st.  Don't think it will go over well in Dallas, we'll see.

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39 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Had a friend who's dad died up in Canada [not COVID] this week. No flights in so he cant go bury his old man or visit the family. Heartbreaking. 

I’m confused about this. Can American citizens fly to Canada or can they not?

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https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-blasios-social-distancing-tip-line-flooded-with-obscenities/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
De Blasio’s social distancing (just the) tip line flooded with penis photos, Hitler memes
Mayor Bill de Blasio’s critics let him know how they really felt about him ordering New Yorkers to snitch on each other for violating social-distancing rules — by flooding his new tip line with crank complaints including “dick pics” and people flipping the bird, The Post has learned.
Photos of extended middle fingers, the mayor dropping the Staten Island groundhog and news coverage of him going to the gym have all been texted to a special tip line that de Blasio announced Saturday, according to screenshots posted on Twitter.
One user sent the message “We will fight this tyrannical overreach!” to the service and got an automated message that in part said, “Hello, and thank you for texting NYC311.”
“F–k you!” replied @MorganLSchmidt1, along with a meme showing Adolph Hitler and the words “TO THOSE TURNING IN YOUR NEIGHBORS AND LOCAL BUSINESSES — YOU DID THE REICH THING.”
“Start flooding their reporting text numbers with this pics!” the tweet added.
Other profane messages included a photo of a bowl of gummy candies in the shape of male genitalia and a sign saying “EAT A BAG OF D–KS.”
It was not immediately clear whether any of the posters actually lived in New York City.
An NYPD source said that “dick pic” photos of real penises have also been texted to 311, and a caller phoned in a tip that de Blasio was seen performing oral sex on someone “in an alleyway behind a 7-11” early Sunday.
“He looked at me…and coofed in my direction,” the caller said, according to a photo of the 311 operator’s computer screen provided to The Post.
“Coof” is a newly coined term for coughing while infected with the coronavirus, according to the Urban Dictionary website....(snip)[/No Bobbitt]
 


Buncha Shagsters there.
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14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I heard that as well but haven't heard any explanation, or most importantly, anything resembling a fucking plan.   The reality is that the curve has flattened in Dallas.  Period. We have plenty of hospital capacity.  Unless the hospital data to be released today (which they are several hours late updating, per usual) shows a completely unexpected increase over the weekend, hospitalizations peaked 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard or read anything about being significantly low on PPE or supplies either. 

So the only thing that may be better on May 15 vs. May 1 is testing.  And if that is what they are waiting to figure out, then just fucking say so.   Seriously, say we want to have better testing and contact tracing in place, we think we will have that by May 15th, here is our plan.  

Otherwise, it's intellectually dishonest to anyone that is actually paying attention.  The curve isn't going to become meaningfully flatter between now and then.  It pretty much is what it is.  I just think extending without simultaneously releasing your game plan is fucking stupid and will backfire.   Jenkins is blowing a lot of the goodwill he had early on IMO.  The reality is Dallas hasn't had the suffering other places have had (largely because of the orders) but you can't just keep extending it out without explaining to the public why it is necessary to make that decision now, on April 21st.  Don't think it will go over well in Dallas, we'll see.

people are seeing the NY/NJ are half the numbers and the other places aren't blowing way up like expected.  The NorthEast + Mich is still hot but not boiling.  the rest of the country is willing to take a chance with a slow open and a more educated populace about social distancing.  I think that is why they kept the schools closed.  everything they do is in packs/groups/large groups and they don't have the faculties "en masse" to understand certain situations.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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