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2023 off year elections and primaries


Zonahorn

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The concern I have is that none of these races really reflect a polling "miss."  The polls pretty accurately reflected that ol' Tate was going to win a tight race in Mississippi and that Bashear would win in KY.  And I don't think any reputable pollster had the Ohio referenda being terribly close.

All of which is to say that the resulting implication is that the polls on Biden's low popularity may be uncomfortably accurate.

Now, I don't think that's reason to panic.  Polls of a presidential election a year ahead of time have very little (no?) predictive value.  For one thing, there's a year's worth of events that are going to occur, none of which can be predicted.  And this coming year, those events are going to include criminal trials of one of the leading contenders.  But beyond that, there's no campaigning going on.  And campaigning is effective.  Obviously.  I mean, there's a multi-billion dollar industry built on the presumption that campaigns have an effect on voters' decisionmaking.

But still--I'd probably prefer to have Biden be comfortably up on Trump in every poll.

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Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

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34 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The concern I have is that none of these races really reflect a polling "miss."  The polls pretty accurately reflected that ol' Tate was going to win a tight race in Mississippi and that Bashear would win in KY.  And I don't think any reputable pollster had the Ohio referenda being terribly close.

All of which is to say that the resulting implication is that the polls on Biden's low popularity may be uncomfortably accurate.

Now, I don't think that's reason to panic.  Polls of a presidential election a year ahead of time have very little (no?) predictive value.  For one thing, there's a year's worth of events that are going to occur, none of which can be predicted.  And this coming year, those events are going to include criminal trials of one of the leading contenders.  But beyond that, there's no campaigning going on.  And campaigning is effective.  Obviously.  I mean, there's a multi-billion dollar industry built on the presumption that campaigns have an effect on voters' decisionmaking.

But still--I'd probably prefer to have Biden be comfortably up on Trump in every poll.

The other issue is the media is intentionally conflating polls showing Trump ahead. It’s good for business. Clicks = $$$. The polls showing anything but “Trump winning” gets pretty ignored. 

Bases on what Cohn was saying, they fully expect/are modeling a more GOP leaning electorate in 2024. That’s what they’re basing their polls off of. Not reality/what we’ve seen but “what they think will happen”

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23 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

I think that's quite apparent.  But that's only going to last so long.  I don't think you can pull off a front-porch campaign in the 21st Century.

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The other issue is the media is intentionally conflating polls showing Trump ahead. It’s good for business. Clicks = $$$. The polls showing anything but “Trump winning” gets pretty ignored. 

Bases on what Cohn was saying, they fully expect/are modeling a more GOP leaning electorate in 2024. That’s what they’re basing their polls off of. Not reality/what we’ve seen but “what they think will happen”

I mean, yes and no.  Did we really see anything Tuesday that is inconsistent with a national R+2 environment in 2024?

I'm not sure that we did.

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25 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think that's quite apparent.  But that's only going to last so long.  I don't think you can pull off a front-porch campaign in the 21st Century.

I mean, yes and no.  Did we really see anything Tuesday that is inconsistent with a national R+2 environment in 2024?

I'm not sure that we did.

Did you see anything on Tuesday that tells you Pennsylvania is going to be Trump +5? Because I sure did not. 

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

is this a serious post?

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49 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Why would people reject Republicans up and down the ballot only to vote for Trump for President?  He's literally the face of the Republican Party.

Because cognitive dissonance is real.

On specific policies?  See the Ohio polling.  People strongly favor policies at odds with the GQP's positions.

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

They will vote plainly against their stated interests, time and time again.  We've seen it happen for years now, it will keep happening.

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Did you see anything on Tuesday that tells you Pennsylvania is going to be Trump +5? Because I sure did not. 

more than anyone/anything on the ballots, i paid attention to who voted.  if gen z is engaged, this thing is over.  if voters in the rust belt are engaged, this thing is over.

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9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

She ain’t wrong. Polling a year out is dumb. 

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Because cognitive dissonance is real.

On specific policies?  See the Ohio polling.  People strongly favor policies at odds with the GQP's positions.

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

They will vote plainly against their stated interests, time and time again.  We've seen it happen for years now, it will keep happening.

Brisket, their stated interest is that sweet Jones they get at voting for lib tears.

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

Which this was the argument by most of the dem strategists on cnn when Biden’s poll numbers were brought up by republican folks. I think even Cupp said something similar—the numbers don’t look good now but when it’s just those 2, people may not like BIden but he’s better than trump so they’ll pull the lever for Joe.

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

It may have been Pod Save America, but somewhere there was polling that a large number of people do not know or do not believe that we are locked into Biden Trump and that one or both of them may not win the nomination (setting aside Trump's legal issues).  Again -- dumb electorate.  

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

IMG_1928.thumb.png.3bb8ea58e3e63b3c9b2b942d8b4fb8bd.png

Here’s to a deadly Flu season….and a ton of GQP vaccine denier olds Darwining.

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More important than poll numbers.

President Joe Biden raised more than $71 million for his reelection campaign and the Democratic Party in the third fundraising quarter of the year, his campaign announced on Sunday, far outpacing former President Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP primary who have reported their results so far.

The president’s political operation with the Democratic National Committee ended the quarter with $91 million, the campaign said

Trump’s campaign said his operation has $37.5 million on hand.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/joe-biden-2024-reelection-fundraising/index.html

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10 hours ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

My problem with that is that he's not doing what he needs to do in the battleground states - he's just watched some of them slip even farther away (especially PA). If he had competent handlers, would he be doing rallies at some O&G/offshore services company near Tomball, Texas, an area he won't lose, in a state he won't lose, or a rally in South Florida (during a Republican debate), again in an area and state he won't lose, versus PA/WI/MI/AZ/NV/GA?  

What I see with the last half-dozen or so rallies is just him grifting/getting the MAGA sheep to pay his legal bills.  Even if they do rallies in the battleground states next year, him swooping in at the last minute after some have been moving more and more blue over the last two elections won't do the trick, especially if the legal cases go against him.

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On the topic of Biden being unpopular, I doubt any president would poll well coming off a few years of inflation. But as everyone gets accustomed to the new normal prices, the blame on Biden will diminish. Also enough people will realize that inflation is not solely on the person in the WH.

when a friend complains about inflation, I like to point out that the US had less inflation than the rest of the world so maybe just maybe our policies were the best option out there. They don’t hear that on Fox or conservative radio.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the topic of Biden being unpopular, I doubt any president would poll well coming off a few years of inflation. But as everyone gets accustomed to the new normal prices, the blame on Biden will diminish. Also enough people will realize that inflation is not solely on the person in the WH.

when a friend complains about inflation, I like to point out that the US had less inflation than the rest of the world so maybe just maybe our policies were the best option out there. They don’t hear that on Fox or conservative radio.

Exactly but then again they probably can't spot Europe on a map.  

Gas is lower... somehow I don't hear that MAGidiots talking about it.  Go figure.

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