2023 off year elections and primaries

[tx 3 putt 75959]

 

[henrygandorf 29169]

it’s so crazy that fox and newsmax (and others) really say “we” when referring to republicans. does msnbc say “we” about dems?  not sure they do. this sounds like local mlb radio announcers. 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's a tricky problem for the GOP - tell a college student they can't do something, and they'll go out of their way to do it just to spite you.

I still do this. Especially when it comes to drinking. Maybe not the best idea, but hey. 

[Burt 4062]

2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

i don’t get it.  What’s fun about a couch?

It pulls out so I don't have to?

[Burt 4062]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

There’s been talk of some Ohio republicans wanting to repeal the marijuana legalization. Would they really be so stupid to overturn something that win by nearly 15 points?

That’s a rhetorical question, right?

[LCHorn 2570]

6 hours ago, Burt said:

 

Off topic but why cast a total fox like Paula Patton and then omit her from your print ads?  Was this a one sheet only for Des Moines?

[HenryJames 65848]

17 hours ago, sidis said:

 

[CooterBrown 17851]

10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

 

[Homercles 10205]

16 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Black men outvoting White women on the abortion issue?

 

Oh look!  People who are actually affected by an issue have a strong opinion on it, and want to have the ability to choose.  

[Gatorubet 30023]

Santorum.   The urban dictionary definition still gets me after all these years.  It could not be a greater legacy for that loser.   

[Ghost of LL 15327]

The concern I have is that none of these races really reflect a polling "miss."  The polls pretty accurately reflected that ol' Tate was going to win a tight race in Mississippi and that Bashear would win in KY.  And I don't think any reputable pollster had the Ohio referenda being terribly close.

All of which is to say that the resulting implication is that the polls on Biden's low popularity may be uncomfortably accurate.

Now, I don't think that's reason to panic.  Polls of a presidential election a year ahead of time have very little (no?) predictive value.  For one thing, there's a year's worth of events that are going to occur, none of which can be predicted.  And this coming year, those events are going to include criminal trials of one of the leading contenders.  But beyond that, there's no campaigning going on.  And campaigning is effective.  Obviously.  I mean, there's a multi-billion dollar industry built on the presumption that campaigns have an effect on voters' decisionmaking.

But still--I'd probably prefer to have Biden be comfortably up on Trump in every poll.

[Pancho 44181]

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Santorum.   The urban dictionary definition still gets me after all these years.  It could not be a greater legacy for that loser.   

Savage, one might say. 

[Js1 84995]

34 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The concern I have is that none of these races really reflect a polling "miss."  The polls pretty accurately reflected that ol' Tate was going to win a tight race in Mississippi and that Bashear would win in KY.  And I don't think any reputable pollster had the Ohio referenda being terribly close.

All of which is to say that the resulting implication is that the polls on Biden's low popularity may be uncomfortably accurate.

Now, I don't think that's reason to panic.  Polls of a presidential election a year ahead of time have very little (no?) predictive value.  For one thing, there's a year's worth of events that are going to occur, none of which can be predicted.  And this coming year, those events are going to include criminal trials of one of the leading contenders.  But beyond that, there's no campaigning going on.  And campaigning is effective.  Obviously.  I mean, there's a multi-billion dollar industry built on the presumption that campaigns have an effect on voters' decisionmaking.

But still--I'd probably prefer to have Biden be comfortably up on Trump in every poll.

The other issue is the media is intentionally conflating polls showing Trump ahead. It’s good for business. Clicks = $$$. The polls showing anything but “Trump winning” gets pretty ignored. 

Bases on what Cohn was saying, they fully expect/are modeling a more GOP leaning electorate in 2024. That’s what they’re basing their polls off of. Not reality/what we’ve seen but “what they think will happen”

[Ghost of LL 15327]

23 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

I think that's quite apparent.  But that's only going to last so long.  I don't think you can pull off a front-porch campaign in the 21st Century.

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The other issue is the media is intentionally conflating polls showing Trump ahead. It’s good for business. Clicks = $$$. The polls showing anything but “Trump winning” gets pretty ignored. 

Bases on what Cohn was saying, they fully expect/are modeling a more GOP leaning electorate in 2024. That’s what they’re basing their polls off of. Not reality/what we’ve seen but “what they think will happen”

I mean, yes and no.  Did we really see anything Tuesday that is inconsistent with a national R+2 environment in 2024?

I'm not sure that we did.

[G650 13843]

12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, yes and no.  Did we really see anything Tuesday that is inconsistent with a national R+2 environment in 2024?

I'm not sure that we did.

[Js1 84995]

25 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think that's quite apparent.  But that's only going to last so long.  I don't think you can pull off a front-porch campaign in the 21st Century.

I mean, yes and no.  Did we really see anything Tuesday that is inconsistent with a national R+2 environment in 2024?

I'm not sure that we did.

Did you see anything on Tuesday that tells you Pennsylvania is going to be Trump +5? Because I sure did not. 

[kevwun 15572]

Why would people reject Republicans up and down the ballot only to vote for Trump for President?  He's literally the face of the Republican Party.

[henrygandorf 29169]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

is this a serious post?

[GopherRock 1765]

Speaking of campaigning, it's going to be hard for Trump to campaign while digging ditches and shoveling cow shit on a Georgia prison farm.

[Brisketexan 104226]

49 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Why would people reject Republicans up and down the ballot only to vote for Trump for President?  He's literally the face of the Republican Party.

Because cognitive dissonance is real.

On specific policies?  See the Ohio polling.  People strongly favor policies at odds with the GQP's positions.

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

They will vote plainly against their stated interests, time and time again.  We've seen it happen for years now, it will keep happening.

[Gatorubet 30023]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

[Willfully Horn 7911]

13 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Philly’s first black mayor?  Really?

First female black mayor, says my wife.

[henrygandorf 29169]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Did you see anything on Tuesday that tells you Pennsylvania is going to be Trump +5? Because I sure did not. 

more than anyone/anything on the ballots, i paid attention to who voted.  if gen z is engaged, this thing is over.  if voters in the rust belt are engaged, this thing is over.

[Js1 84995]

9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

She ain’t wrong. Polling a year out is dumb. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Anyone freaking out about polling a year out is dumb too.

[nbmishoid 920]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Because cognitive dissonance is real.

On specific policies?  See the Ohio polling.  People strongly favor policies at odds with the GQP's positions.

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

They will vote plainly against their stated interests, time and time again.  We've seen it happen for years now, it will keep happening.

Brisket, their stated interest is that sweet Jones they get at voting for lib tears.

[Pancho 44181]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

Which this was the argument by most of the dem strategists on cnn when Biden’s poll numbers were brought up by republican folks. I think even Cupp said something similar—the numbers don’t look good now but when it’s just those 2, people may not like BIden but he’s better than trump so they’ll pull the lever for Joe.

[A-Tex Devil 2442]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Hillary was on the View and said something that might have some validity. She mentioned how Obama was down in the polls and Bill was down in the polls prior to the point that the actual presidential nominees were crowned by their respective parties. She said that once it became a binary choice, all of the negative feelings in peoples heads about who they liked better took a back step to  “do you want this person or that person?”

I think there is something to that.

It may have been Pod Save America, but somewhere there was polling that a large number of people do not know or do not believe that we are locked into Biden Trump and that one or both of them may not win the nomination (setting aside Trump's legal issues).  Again -- dumb electorate.  

[Gatorubet 30023]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

But when it comes to specific races that reflect "team red v team blue," a shitload of those same people will vote Trump because 'muricafreedomeagle, and I aint' votin' for no durn communistsocialist Biden!

Here’s to a deadly Flu season….and a ton of GQP vaccine denier olds Darwining.

[BamaATL 16592]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Here’s to a deadly Flu season….and a ton of GQP vaccine denier olds Darwining.

Hadn't looked in a while, looks like we are getting a few thousand Covid deaths a month nation wide.  

[Ghost of LL 15327]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Did you see anything on Tuesday that tells you Pennsylvania is going to be Trump +5? Because I sure did not. 

Nope.  

So I guess we're left with the conclusion that Tuesday probably doesn't tell us too much about what is going to happen in 2024.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5781]

23 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

  

I want the record to show that I'm an Assman. Ass is far superior to tits, but I like tits too. I like all versions of tits, and I'm man enough to say this dude has great tits. 

[ConferenceRoom 6123]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Nope.  

So I guess we're left with the conclusion that Tuesday probably doesn't tell us too much about what is going to happen in 2024.

OuTlOoK hAs NoT cHaNgED

[Ted Lange 15975]

More important than poll numbers.

President Joe Biden raised more than $71 million for his reelection campaign and the Democratic Party in the third fundraising quarter of the year, his campaign announced on Sunday, far outpacing former President Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP primary who have reported their results so far.

The president’s political operation with the Democratic National Committee ended the quarter with $91 million, the campaign said

Trump’s campaign said his operation has $37.5 million on hand.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/joe-biden-2024-reelection-fundraising/index.html

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Hadn't looked in a while, looks like we are getting a few thousand Covid deaths a month nation wide.  

Population control 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I want the record to show that I'm an Assman. Ass is far superior to tits, but I like tits too. I like all versions of tits, and I'm man enough to say this dude has great tits. 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

10 hours ago, Pancho said:

Someone on one of the shows last night mentioned that trumps handlers actually know what they are doing compared to last 2 times he ran. This person said it’s noticeable that trump isn’t out front parroting the stupid shit that made people hate him in 2020 and has been “hiding” except for limited interviews here and there. They argued this could be a reason his poll numbers are up because he’s not in front of every camera in America saying stupid shit and when he does do that on truf social, nobody is on that app to even see it.

Thought that was interesting

My problem with that is that he's not doing what he needs to do in the battleground states - he's just watched some of them slip even farther away (especially PA). If he had competent handlers, would he be doing rallies at some O&G/offshore services company near Tomball, Texas, an area he won't lose, in a state he won't lose, or a rally in South Florida (during a Republican debate), again in an area and state he won't lose, versus PA/WI/MI/AZ/NV/GA?  

What I see with the last half-dozen or so rallies is just him grifting/getting the MAGA sheep to pay his legal bills.  Even if they do rallies in the battleground states next year, him swooping in at the last minute after some have been moving more and more blue over the last two elections won't do the trick, especially if the legal cases go against him.

[Pancho 44181]

 

 

[Huckleberry 32660]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

Rights with which we were what again, Ms. Lear?

[atomheartbevo 89304]

I said it in the abortion thread - the Republicans should do it.   Best way to drive up turnout next year, just not the turnout they expected.  If the Republicans really want to hold the abortion tiger by the tail, let them.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

Not sure where else to put this. We are 1 step closer to getting the seat we deserve in Louisiana. 
 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Louisiana is hopefully just the warm up act.  Here’s the court case we’ve all been waiting for.

 

[Gatorubet 30023]

10 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Live picture of Sherrod Brown:

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13530]

13 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

Effectively what the GOP did in Florida after voters restored felons' voter rights. When elections don't go their way they selectively find some way to ignore the will of the people. Fascist authoritarians.

[Js1 84995]

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Not sure where else to put this. We are 1 step closer to getting the seat we deserve in Louisiana. 
 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13388]

On the topic of Biden being unpopular, I doubt any president would poll well coming off a few years of inflation. But as everyone gets accustomed to the new normal prices, the blame on Biden will diminish. Also enough people will realize that inflation is not solely on the person in the WH.

when a friend complains about inflation, I like to point out that the US had less inflation than the rest of the world so maybe just maybe our policies were the best option out there. They don’t hear that on Fox or conservative radio.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Nice Guy Eddie

[texasdago 7544]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the topic of Biden being unpopular, I doubt any president would poll well coming off a few years of inflation. But as everyone gets accustomed to the new normal prices, the blame on Biden will diminish. Also enough people will realize that inflation is not solely on the person in the WH.

when a friend complains about inflation, I like to point out that the US had less inflation than the rest of the world so maybe just maybe our policies were the best option out there. They don’t hear that on Fox or conservative radio.

Exactly but then again they probably can't spot Europe on a map.  

Gas is lower... somehow I don't hear that MAGidiots talking about it.  Go figure.

[BamaATL 16592]

3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Exactly but then again they probably can't spot Europe on a map.  

Gas is lower... somehow I don't hear that MAGidiots talking about it.  Go figure.

I don't know if this was a thing where you live, but at gas pumps around me they kept putting up stickers next to the price with Biden point and saying, "I did that".  Most of them were taken off by the stations, but the ones still up make me chuckle a bit given the decrease in price.  

I think it might be fair to say they understand the complexity of commodities trading.